Upload
others
View
8
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Nassau County Development Trends - 2017 - 11
Residential Development Tracking Project
figuRE 2. REsidEntial dEVEloPmEnt tRaCkER
12 - Nassau County Development Trends - 2017
Housing
Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS user community
District 501
District 502
District 503
District 505
District 504
0 2 4 6 81Miles
[
figuRE 3. nassau County CommissionER distRiCts
DISTRICT 501: 21%
DISTRICT 502: 8%
DISTRICT 503: 60%
DISTRICT 504: 3%
DISTRICT 505: 8%
Graph 9. Building Permit Percentages per Commissioner District 2017
16
‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17
519 562589 628
970
1285
1109
655
431
196257 283 265
463
541
1006915
1036
gRaPh 10. building PERmits foR nEw REsidEntial dwElling units in nassau County fRom 2000 to 2017
16
Nassau County Development Trends - 2017 - 13
Housing
aPPRoVEd Pud’s in 2017-2018:Nassau Crossing: *350 Single Family Units, *450 Multi-Family Units (15%
reserved for workforce housing @ 80% AMI)
*300,000sf of Office & Retail Space
*Five acre reservation for a future transit station
*Publicly accessible Community and Neighborhood Park
*Private Neighborhood/Pocket Parks
*Over two miles of publicly accessible multi-use trails
*Redevelopment of William Burgess Blvd.
Plats/housing PRojECts in REViEw: Laurel Oak Estates: Crane Island Phase I: Hideaway Phase 1B: Candlewood Farms: Heartwood Farms: Mills Creek Farms: Hampton Lakes Phase 3: Woodbridge Phase 4**: Wildlight Apartment Complex: Mills Creek Preserve:Crane Island Phase II**: Concourse Crossing PUD*: Wildlight Phase 1C-1 and 1C-2: Village Walk Phase One:Village Walk Phase Two:
Blackrock Park Phase II: ENCPA Village Center: Plummer Creek Phase 2B: Barnwell Manor: Heron Isles Phase 3C: Horseshoe Ridge: Hampton Mill: Mills Corner: Lumber Creek Phase II: Creekstone: Hamtpon Lakes Phase II: Heron Isles Phase Two C-3: Amelia Concourse Phase 2: Villas at Oyster Bay Harbour: Clear Lakes Unit 2: Cashen Farms: McCully Forest: Andy’s Acres: Lumber Creek Phase 3: Flora Parke Unit 6B: Woodbridge Phase 3: Sandy Pointe Preserve Unit 1: Woodbrier Phase 2:
55 SF Lots 84 SF Lots 76 SF Lots189 SF Lots 39 SF Lots 4 SF Lots 3 SF Lots 9 SF Lots 78 SF Lots 46 SF Lots134 SF Lots 56 SF Lots153 SF Lots 54 SF Lots 72 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 7 SF Lots 5 SF Lots165 SF Lots 60 SF Lots113 SF Lots 71 SF Lots 41 SF Lots
Total: 1,520 Units
30 SF Lots 47 SF Lots 73 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 6 SF Lots 95 SF Lots 104 SF Lots300 MF Units350 MF Units 66 SF Lots 275 SF Lots257 SF Lots 72 SF Lots 59 SF Lots
Total: 1,746 Units
*Current PUD in review, not yet approved by decision making body. **Infrastructure Plans (Engineering Plans) in Review prior to plat submittal.
Plats aPPRoVEd in 2017-2018 (sf = singlE family lots/units):
14 - Nassau County Development Trends - 2017
Housing
Graph 11. Average Home Sales Price in Nassau County by Zip Code7
gRaPh 12. mEan salEs PRiCE in nassau 1990-20179
gRaPh 13. mEdian salEs PRiCEs 1990-20179
$181
,584
$164
,405
$356
,569
$132
,103 $2
07,2
30
$194
,963
$182
,129
$373
,625
$173
,676
$204
,336
$193
,297
$188
,297
$394
,493
$173
,005 $2
23,1
34
32009 32011 32034 32046 32097
2015
2016
2017
Single Family Home
Condominium
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2017
$100,000.00
$200,000.00
$300,000.00
$400,000.00
$500,000.00
$600,000.00
$700,000.00
$800,000.00
$900,000.00
$92,545
$172,737
$340,127
$766,034
$192,825$244,182
$333,169
$413,022
Single Family Home
Condominium
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2017
$50,000.00 $100,000.00 $150,000.00 $200,000.00 $250,000.00 $300,000.00 $350,000.00 $400,000.00 $450,000.00
$80,900
$147,750
$255,000
$385,500
$120,600
$192,200$255,250
$290,000
Nassau County Development Trends - 2017 - 15
Housing
figuRE 4. ZiPCodE maP & aVERagE salEs PRiCE by ZiPCodE
16 - Nassau County Development Trends - 2017
Values
Taxable Value17 majoR takEaways:
1. taxable value remains below 2006 & 2007 levels
2. the % of non-residential tax parCels has deCreased sinCe 2001
3. the % of residential tax parCels has inCreased by 6% sinCe 2001
4. non-residential tax parCels only represent 2% of total tax parCels yet represents 11% of the total tax money ColleCted
5. on a per parCel basis residential tax parCels provide an averaGe of $1,366 to the bCC.
6. on a per parCel basis non-residential tax parCels provides an averaGe of $6,767 to the bCC.
Total Number of Tax Parcels 20
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17
Vacant
Residential
Other
Non-Residential
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
62%
68%
31%27%
xx% - Percent of overall parcels represented by parcel type. By %, non-residential parcels decreased by 1% over 17 years.
2%
4%
3%
4%
Average Taxable Value per Parcel
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Vacant Residential
Other Non-Residential
$900,000$800,000$700,000$600,000$500,000$400,000$300,000$200,000$100,000
0
$821,574
$53,222
$215,797
$317,355
$480,199
$279,445
$94,854
$39,982
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
0
Vacant
Residential
Other
Non-Residential
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Average Taxes to the BOCC per Tax Parcel
$6,767
$438
$1,366
$2,614$3,700
$2,153
$731
$308
gRaPh 14. total numbER of tax PaRCEls
gRaPh 15. aVERagE taxablE ValuE PER PaRCEl
gRaPh 16. aVERagE taxEs to thE boCC PER PaRCEl
Nassau County Development Trends - 2017 - 17
Values/Non-residential Projects
gRaPh 17. total taxablE ValuE
majoR aPPRoVEd CommERCial PRojECts* in 2017-2018: Lasserre Commercial Development (Aldi Grocery, Panda Express, 3 available development pads) Villages of Amelia, Phase II (63,000 sqft of Retail Space) Yulee Professional Plaza (16,000 sqft of Office/Retail Space) Ratliff Commercial (9,200 sqft Retail Space) Chester Corner Commercial (21,150 sqft Office and Retail Space) Amelia Island Hotel (56,450 sqft) Azar Commercial Building (6,000 sqft Retail Space)ENCPA Village Center Infrastructure (infrastructure plans for the commercial portion of Wildlight)
majoR CommERCial PRojECts in REViEw: Nassauville Commercial Retail (9,100 sqft Retail Space) UF Health Center (52,000 sqft Medical Offices) Nassau Crossing PUD Core I Final Development Plan (Infrastructure for up to 400,000 mixed-use) Wildlight Commerce Park (1,300,000 sqft of Industrial Space) Wildlight Commercial Parcel (9,100 sqft Retail/Restaurant Space)
*Major Commercial Projects are projects over 5,000 square feet
dEVEloPmEnt oVERlay aREas: East Nassau Community Planning Area (ENCPA) Sector Plan (http://www.nassaucountyfl.com/761/East-Nassau-Community-Planning-Area-ENCP)William Burgess Mixed Use Activity Center Overlay District (http://www.nassaucountyfl.com/860/William-Burgess)
Current Non-Res. & Mixed-use Projects
All Parcel Types
Total Taxable Value
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$9,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$7,811,856,786
$3,532,555,179
$8,198,060,305$8,364,613,691
$6,208,642,378$5,944,978,492
18 - Nassau County Development Trends - 2017
Regional Context
MARION
VOLUSIA
LAKE
DUVAL
CLAY
PUTNAMALACHUA
NASSAU
ST JOHNS
BAKER
CITRUS
FLAGLER
LEVY
SUMTER
UNION
BREVARDSEMINOLE
BRADFORD
ORANGEHERNANDO
COLUMBIA
Esri, HERE, DeLorme, MapmyIndia, © OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GISuser community
LegendRegional Area
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
Surrounding Counties
0 9.5 19 28.5 384.75Miles
[
figuRE 5. REgional maP
REgional ContExtRegional Population Trends
NASSAU 5%
DUVAL 63%
ST. JOHN’S 14%
CLAY 15%
BAKER 2%
Graph 18. Population Distribution within the MSA in 20178
NAS
SAU
CO
UNTY
: 152
PEO
PLE P
ER S
QUA
RE M
ILE I
N 2
017
DUV
AL C
OUN
TY: 1
,229
PEO
PLE
PER
SQUA
RE M
ILE I
N 2
017
CLA
Y C
OUN
TY: 3
45 P
EOPL
E PER
SQ
UARE
MIL
E IN 2
017
S T. J
OHN
’S C
OUN
TY: 3
45 P
EOPL
E PER
SQ
UARE
MIL
E IN 2
017
BAKE
R C
OUN
TY: 4
7 PE
OPL
E PER
SQ
UARE
MIL
E IN 2
017
Gra
ph 1
9. Pe
ople
Per
Squ
are
Mile
in th
e M
SA8
Nassau County Development Trends - 2017 - 19
Regional Context
gRaPh 20. histoRiCal tREnds foR suRRounding REgion8
7,363
25.5% 65.4%
# Population#% Percent Change
20.9% 20.4% 21.8% 0.3%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
9,242
15,289
18,486
22,259
27,115 27,191
Baker County
4,566
-2.5% 145% 163.0% 73.6% 92.0% 9.9%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Flagler County
4,45410,913
# Population#% Percent Change
28,701
49,832
95,696105,157
125,319
35.2% 52.7% 43.3% 19.6% 11.6% 5.8%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Volusia County
169,487
258,762
# Population#% Percent Change
370,737
443,343494,593
523,405
455,41116.1% 8.0%
# Population#% Percent Change
17.9% 15.7% 11.0% 8.4%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
528,862
Duval County
571,003672,971
778,879864,263
936,811
30,034
2.3% 67.0%
# Population#% Percent Change
63.4% 46.9% 54.3% 20.9%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
St. John’s County
30,72751,303
83,829
123,135
190,865
229,715
19,535
64.1% 109.2%
# Population#% Percent Change
58.1% 32.9% 35.5% 9.3%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Clay County
32,509
67,052
105,986
140,814
190,865208,549
17,189
# Population#% Percent Change
9.7%27.1%31.2%33.6%59.5%20.0%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
20,626
Nassau County
32,894
43,941
57,663
73,31480,456
20 - Nassau County Development Trends - 2017
Regional Context
Regional Drivers Impacting Residential Growth in Nassau “Post-Great Recession growth in Nassau County, particularly in the construction of single-family residential homes, is contributable to both internal and external drivers. Coming out of the Great Recession, the vast majority of buyers and builders looked south to St. Johns County. The depressed economic conditions created a potential for more affordable homes in St. Johns County (as compared to 2004-2007 values), a desired area given the quality of life in St. Johns County, including its No. 1 rated school district. However, the “gold rush” to St. Johns County quickly turned into too much of a good thing with prices rising dramati-cally for new homes and an overabundance of residential developments and available lots coming on-line.
In times past, builder’s focus would have also been in Duval and Clay counties, but both have their challeng-es resulting in builders and buyers looking for an alternative. Nassau offers that alternative by providing one of the top rated school districts in the State, being located in proximity to expanding job centers in north and west Duval, new job growth internal to Nassau County and, in the broad perspective, offering a high quality of life. The combination of these forces and the resulting demand presents a challenge and an opportunity for Nassau County - how to encourage positive growth while elevating the quality of life for all citizens in the County.”
Greg Matovina President, Florida Home Builders AssociationPast President, Northeast Florida Builder’s Association President, Matovina + Company
“While the people residing in western Nassau value their small town, rural lifestyle with its lack of congested roads, low crime and large tracts of land, all that is about to change. Ready or not, western Nassau is in the crosshairs for development. By 2045, Nassau County’s population is expected to increase by 60 percent from 80,456 to 128,750. Pressure is already extending from eastern Nassau County and western Duval County. To the south of Jacksonville, the northern portion of St. Johns County has seen tremendous growth and is expected to be built out within 10 years. The panel agreed that the time is now to start planning before growth occurs. Without plans in place, the area will be ripe for unbridled growth and urban sprawl.”
“Given the County’s push for high-wage manufacturing and industrial jobs, it can be expected that emerging job centers will create demand for housing and services, as evidenced in Jacksonville over the past several decades. As jobs moved south from downtown to Southpoint and the Butler Boulevard corridor, residential development moved to southeast Jacksonville and northern St. Johns County.”
“The greatest barrier to success is, first and foremost, inertia. There must be a sense of urgency to address the influx of development facing western Nassau County, along with strong leadership and governance to bring needed improvements to the area.”
“Conclusion: While development is knocking at Western Nassau’s door, there is time to get ahead of the curve and follow a plan that contains development to appropriate areas, while maintaining the character in others. Doing nothing, however, will assure that development comes without restraint.”
Excerpts from the Urban Land Institutes’ Final Report forthe Western Nassau Technical Assistance Panel January 2018