EX

PE

RT

OP

INIO

N

102

eqspertis azri

102

giorgi bilaniSvili

ruseTis federaciis sagareo politikis garkveuli

aspeqtebis Taobaze

eqspertis azri

giorgi bilaniSvili

ruseTis federaciis sagareo politikis garkveuliaspeqtebis Taobaze

2018

102

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi ekuTvnis avtorebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saelCos Tvalsazriss.

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi, maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis

fondis Tvalsazriss.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2018 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-8-0053-5

3

Sesavali

damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg saqarTvelos praqtikulad mudmivad daZabuli urTierToba aqvs ruseTis federaciasTan. formalurad am daZabulobas sxvadasxva dros sxvadasxva mizezi hqonda, magram Tu problemas farTo WrilSi SevxedavT, mizezi principSi erTaderTia _ es aris ruseTis swrafva aRadginos dakarguli gavlena postsab-WoTa sivrceze, risTvisac igi sakmaod xistad moqmedebs da umetesad Zalismier meTodebs iyenebs.

udavoa, rom ruseTi swored is qveyanaa, romelic uSu-alo da udides gavlenas axdens saqarTvelos usafrTxoebaze. Sesabamisad, CvenTvis Zalze mniSvnelovania am qveynis sagareo-politikuri interesebis, amocanebisa da gegmebis sworad Se-faseba, raTa ukeT gavacnobieroT, Tu ra tipis safrTxeebi SeiZleba arsebobdes saqarTvelos winaSe da SevecadoT maT ganeitralebas. es gansakuTrebiT aqtualuria dRes, rodesac ruseTis mier yirimis aneqsiisa da siriis konfliqtSi samxed-ro ZaliT CarTvis Semdeg gaxSirebulia laparaki saerTaSori-so asparezze ruseTis mzard gavlenaze.

ruseTis ambiciebi marTlac sakmaod gazrdilia. amaze metyvelebs Tundac misi moqmedebebi ukrainasa da siriaSi, ase ve is politikuri aqcentebi, romlebsac ruseTis pirveli pi rebi sajarod akeTeben. mkafio politikuri aqcentebis das-mis erT-erTi ukanaskneli magaliTi iyo ruseTis federaci-is prezident vladimer putinis yovelwliuri mimarTva1 fe-d e raluri sakrebulosadmi, sadac man, daskvniT nawilSi, yu radReba gaamaxvila ruseTis samxedro SesaZleblobebis upre cedento ganviTarebaze. kerZod, vl. putinma sakmaod vrclad ilaparaka strategiuli daniSnulebis Svid axal iaraRze, romlebsac, misive ganmartebiT, msoflioSi analogi ar gaaCnia.

ramdenad flobs ruseTi am tipis uprecedento samxed-ro teqnologiebs, amis dadgena Zalze rTulia, magram ra iyo ruseTis federaciis prezidentis mTavari politikuri gzav nili, rodesac igi axal uprecedento samxedro SesaZle-

4

blobebze saubrobda, amis gansazRvra SedarebiT martivia. politikurad, dasavleTsa da ruseTs Soris arsebuli daZ-abuli urTierTobebis fonze vl. putinma kidev erTxel Riad daafiq sira, rom ruseTis federacia ar apirebs ukan daxe-vas. igi momavalSic bolomde daicavs sakuTar interesebs, Seecdeba gaagrZelos sakuTari amocanebisa da gegmebis rea-lizeba, raTa aRidginos dakarguli gavlena saerTaSoriso asparezze.

Tanamedrove ruseTis geopolitikuri xedva

ruseTis xelisuflebis SefasebiT, bolo wlebis gan-mav lobaSi dasavleTis, gansakuTrebiT ki, aSS-is saerTaSori-so gavlena ganuxrelad sustdeba. es ganpirobebulia, erTi mxriv, saerTaSoriso asparezze aSS-is gadadgmuli araswori nabijebiT, meore mxriv ki, sxva didi saxelmwifoebis gaZ li-e rebiT. Sedegad, civi omis Semdeg Camoyalibebuli erTpo-lusiani saerTaSoriso sistema, romelSic aSS hegemoni iyo, ukve dasrulebulia. dawyebulia gadasvla mravalpolusian sistemaze. es procesi Seuqcevadia da aSS-is an sxva romelime saerTaSoriso aqtoris Zalisxmevis miuxedavad, igi logikur dasasrulamde miva.

mravalpolusian sistemaze gadasvlis process Tan sdevs mzardi arastabiluroba2 rogorc saerTaSoriso, ise regionul doneze, rac gamowveulia sxvadasxva qveyanas Soris dapirispirebis gaRrmavebiT, ZiriTadad, gavlenisa da buneb-rivi resursebisTvis brZolis gamo.

ruseTis xelisuflebis Tanaxmad, ruseTis federaciam unda ikisros wamyvani roli mravalpolusian sistemaze ga-dasv lis procesSi. kerZod, moskovma unda gazardos saerTa-Soriso problemebis daregulirebaSi sakuTari CarTuloba da iaqtiuros axali aliansebis formirebis mizniT. aseve, ruseTis federacia unda Seecados saerTaSoriso politikis TamaSis iseTi wesebis dawesebas, romlebic mis interesebs See-sabameba. am mizniT gamoiyeneben samxedro Zalasac, rac moxda kidec jer saqarTvelos, xolo Semdeg ukrainis SemTxvevaSi.

5

amave dros, moskovi xedavs, rom aSS aRar aris aqti-uri msoflios sxvadasxva regionSi arsebuli problemuri sakiTxebis daregulirebis procesSi3. arc romelime sxva didi saxelmwifo avlens gansakuTrebul aqtiurobas. Sesaba mi sad, Seqmnilia garkveuli sivrce, romelic ruseTs saSualebas aZlevs gaaqtiurdes da amiT, saboloo jamSi, gaimyaros saku-Tari poziciebi saerTaSoriso asparezze.

swored aseT fonze miiRo moskovma 2015 wlis seq-tem berSi siriis konfliqtSi samxedro ZaliT CarTvis gada-wyvetileba. unda iTqvas, rom amis Semdeg ruseTis federa-ciam moaxerxa kardinalurad Seecvala viTareba siriaSi. man gadaarCina Tavisi mokavSire asadis reJimi, romelic manamde damxobis piras iyo; umZimesi dartyma miayena siriis opozi-cias; aRadgina asadis reJimis kontroli bevr dasaxlebul punqtze siriaSi; Camoayaliba samSvidobo molaparakebebis axali e.w. astanis formati, sadac Tavad asrulebs wamyvan rols iranTan da TurqeTTan erTad, xolo yvela sxva qveyana, maT Soris aSS, meorexarisxovani roliT Semoifargleba.

saerTo jamSi, siriaSi samxedro ZaliT CarTvis Semdeg ruseTi msoflios erT-erT urTules konfliqtSi wamyvani moTamaSe gaxda, rac saerTaSoriso asparezze misi gavlenis gazrdas emsaxureba.

amasTan erTad, ruseTis xelisuflebis erT-erTi mTa-vari interesi mudmivad iyo dasavleTis qveynebSi ganxeTqi-lebis Setana. cxadia, amis SesaZlebloba ruseTs ezrdeba ma-Sin, rodesac igi kargad xedavs, rom dasavleTis qveynebSi garkveul sakiTxebze uTanxmoeba arsebobs.

ruseTis federaciis mxridan am mimarTulebiT gansa-kuTrebiT warmatebuli politika xorcieldeboda 2003 wlis Semdeg, rodesac parizma da berlinma mxari ar dauWires va-Sing tonis gadawyvetilebas eraySi samxedro operaciis gan-xor cielebis Taobaze. amis Semdeg gansakuTrebiT gaRrmavda moskovis urTierTobebi safrangeTsa da germaniasTan. aman moskovs gauCina garkveuli SesaZlebloba xeli Seewyo vaSing-tonsa da evropis didi qveynebis dedaqalaqebs Soris arse-buli uTanxmoebis gaRrmavebisTvis da amiT daezianebina mo-kavSireebis urTierTobebi.

6

amis mkafio magaliTi iyo 2008 wlis natos buqarestis samitze, aSS-is mtkice mxardaWeris miuxedavad, saqarTvelo-sa da ukrainisTvis wevrobis samoqmedo gegmis miniWebaze berlinisa da parizis uari. im droisTvis es marTlac Zalze mniSv nelovani sagareo-politikuri gamarjveba iyo moskovis-Tvis. erTi mxriv, gamoCnda, rom mokavSireebi ver Tanxmde-bodnen natos Semdegi gafarToebis sakiTxze, rac, principSi, natos dRis wesrigis ara romelime rigiT, aramed erT-erT mTavar sakiTxad unda CaiTvalos. meore mxriv, gamoCnda, rom dasavleTi jer kidev seriozul angariSs uwevs moskovis pozicias im qveynebTan mimarTebiT, romlebsac igi sakuTari eqskluziuri gavlenis zonas miakuTvnebs.

saboloo jamSi, 2008 wlis buqarestis samitze ruse-Tis mxridan saqarTvelosa da ukrainisTvis wevrobis samoq-medo gegmis miniWebis sakiTxis dablokvam moskovi bevrad ufro gaaTamama. es siTamame jer saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg ganxorcielebul samxedro agresiasa da afxazeTisa da cxin-valis regionis „damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad“ aRiarebaSi gamomJRavnda, xolo Semdeg, 2014 wels, yirimis aneqsiasa da aRmosavleT ukrainaSi dawyebul samxedro kampaniaSi.

dasavleTis qveynebSi ganxeTqilebis Setanis mcdelo-bis paralelurad, ruseTis xelisufleba miiCnevs, rom SesaZ-leblobis SemTxvevaSi dartyma unda miayenos aSS-is prestiJs saerTaSoriso asparezze da gaaRrmavos TanamSromloba im qveynebTan, romlebsac, ruseTis msgavsad, mravalpolusiani msoflio wesrigis Camoyalibebisa da iq sakuTari gavlenis damkvidrebis interesi aqvT.

erT-erTi Tema, romelsac ruseTis federacia dRemde warmatebiT iyenebs aSS-is winaaRmdeg, zemoT naxsenebi era-yis samxedro operaciaa, romelsac, saerTo jamSi, pozitiuri Sedegebi arc axlo aRmosavleTSi stabilurobis damyarebisa da arc sxva TvalsazrisiT ar mohyolia.

amas daerTo 2007-2008 wlebis msoflio finansuri krizisi, romelsac saTave aSS-Si ganviTarebulma procesebma daudo da msoflios mraval qveyanaze uaryofiTad aisaxa. amis gamo bevr qveyanaSi, rogorc xelisuflebis doneze, ise

7

akademiuri wreebSi, aqtualuri sakiTxi gaxda saerTaSoriso finansuri sistemis reforma4.

Sesabamisad, ruseTis federacias mieca SesaZlebloba kidev ufro xmamaRla gamoexata sakuTari interesi dReisa-Tvis arsebuli finansuri arqiteqturis koreqtirebis Tao-baze, radgan moskovi miiCnevs, rom es mniSvnelovanwilad ga-napirobebs aSS-is wamyvan rols msoflioSi.

2009 wlis TebervalSi davosis ekonomikur forumze sity viT gamosvlisas5 vl. putinma Riad gaakritika aSS msoflio ekonomikuri krizisis gamowvevis gamo. amasTan, man aSS dolarze, rogorc praqtikulad erTaderT sarezervo valutaze damokidebuleba Seafasa, rogorc saxifaTo da daafiqsira pozicia regionaluri valutebis Seqmnis mizanSe-wonilobis Taobaze.

unda aRiniSnos, rom amave forumze, imave Temebze vl. putinTan SedarebiT rbili, magram aseve kritikuli pozicia gamoxata CineTis maSindelma premier-ministrma ven jiobaom6. es TavisTavad mniSvnelovan garemoebad unda miviCnioT, radgan ruseTis federacia aSS-is gavlenis dabalansebisTvis mudmivad eZebs poziciebis Tanxvedras SesaZlo partnioreb-Tan. am amocanas ruseTis federacias is garemoebac uadvi-lebs, rom zogierT did qveyanas Tavadvec aqvs aSS-is gavle-nis dabalansebis mzardi interesi. am mxriv gansakuTrebul yurad Rebas iqcevs ruseTisa da CineTis mzardi TanamSrom-loba. bolo wlebSi, rogor sxvadasxva kvlevebidan da do-kumentebidan Cans, am Temas gansakuTrebiT didi yuradReba eTmoba aSS-Si. magaliTad, 2017 wels aSS-is kongresis kvle-vis samsaxuris mier gamoqveynebul kvlevaSi7 aRniSnulia, rom ruseTsa da CineTs TanamSromlobis mravali mizezi aqvT. orive qveyanas aqvs survili SeewinaaRmdegos aSS-is gavlenas regionsa da mTlianad msoflioSi.

sakmaod mniSvnelovania isic, rom rogorc 2017 wels, ise 2018 wels gamoqveynebul aSS-is sadazvervo Tanamegobro-bis globaluri safrTxeebis Sefasebis angariSSi, ramdenime adgilas, ruseTi da CineTi moxseniebulia erTad, aSS-is wi-naaRmdeg arsebuli safrTxeebis konteqstSi8.

8

am mxriv yvelaze sayuradReboa aSS-is erovnuli usafr-T xoebis bolo strategia9, romelSic udidesi yuradRebaa eTmoba ruseTsa da CineTs, rogorc aSS-is mTavar mowinaaR-mdegeebs. amave dokumentSi mkafiod aris naTqvami, rom ru-seTi da CineTi ewinaaRmdegebian aSS-is siZlieres, gavlenasa da interesebs, aseve, Zirs uTxrian amerikis usafrTxoebasa da keTildReobas.

gadaWarbebulia imaze saubari, rom aSS-is gavlenis Semcirebis mizniT ruseTis federacias CineTTan an rome-lime sxva did qveyanasTan strategiuli TanamSromloba aqvs. Tumca aSkaraa ruseTis xelisuflebis interesi, gamoiyenos yvela SesaZlo SemTxveva Tematuri partniorobis Camosaya-libeblad, raTa ufro meti Zalisxmeva iyos mimarTuli aSS-is gavlenis dasabalanseblad.

ruseTis xelisuflebis xedviT, axali mravalpolusiani msoflio wesrigis zusti monaxazi jerjerobiT gamokveTili ar aris. jer kidev gaurkvevelia romeli qveynebi iqnebian wam-yvani Zalebi da rogor moxdeba maT Soris gavlenis sferoe-bis gadanawileba. magram moskovs kargad aqvs gacnobierebuli erTi ram, kerZod, mravalpolusian msoflio wesrigSi erT-erT Zlier polusad damkvidrebisTvis mas sWirdeba, rogorc minimum, postsabWoTa qveynebze sakuTari gavlenis srulad aRdgena. es ki imas niSnavs, rom sxva wamyvani Zalebis mxridan postsabWoTa sivrce aRiarebuli unda iyos ruseTis federa-ciis eqskluziuri gavlenis zonad. postsabWoTa qveynebi, marTalia, formalurad SeinarCuneben damoukideblobas, mag-ram realurad isini daeqvemdebarebian ruseTis mkacr sub-ordinacias. amave dros, moxdeba maTi integrireba ruseTis iniciativiT Camoyalibebul regionul geopolitikur or-ganizaciebSi, rogoricaa „evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiri“ da „koleqtiuri xelSekrulebis usafrTxoebis organizacia“.

unda aRiniSnos, rom am etapze postsabWoTa qveynebSi ar igulisxmeba baltiis qveynebi, romlebic arian natosa da ev rokavSiris wevrebi da, Sesabamisad, usafrTxoebis mya ri garantiebi aqvT. magram es ar niSnavs, rom ruseTi sabolood Se guebulia am qveynebis sakuTari gavlenis sferodan gasv-las.

9

ruseTis adgili mravalpolusian msoflio wesrigSi

rogorc zemoT ukve aRiniSna, ruseTis xelisuflebis xedviT, jerjerobiT ar aris gamokveTili axali msoflio wesrigis zusti konturebi. miuxedavad amisa, ruseTis fede-racia ukve karga xania aqtiurad cdilobs saerTaSoriso sazogadoebaSi sakuTari rolis TavisTvis misaRebi aRqmis damkvidrebas.

met-naklebad zust warmodgenas imaze, Tu rogori xed va aqvs ruseTis xelisuflebas, iZleva ruseTis federaci-is konceptualur dokumentebsa da pirveli pirebis sajaro gamosvlebsa Tu publikaciebSi gaJRerebuli ideebi.

erT-erTi aseTi idea, romlis popularizaciasac ruse-Tis xelisufleba ukve mravali welia Tanmimdevrulad cdi-lobs, exeba sruliad axali saerTaSoriso geopolitikuri sivrcis Seqmnas. es idea asaxulia 2008 wlis ruseTis fed-eraciis sagareo politikis koncefciaSi10, sadac laparakia saerTo regionuli koleqtiuri usafrTxoebisa da TanamS-romlobis sistemaze, romelmac vankuveridan vladivostoka-mde teritoria unda moicvas.

aRsaniSnavia, rom Semdgom es idea garkveulwilad Seicvala: ruseTis xelisuflebis warmomadgenelTa narativSi vankuveri Canacvlda lisaboniT (lisabonidan vladivosto-kamde)11, xolo konceptualur dokumentebSi gaCnda termini „atlantikis okeanedan wynar okeanemde“12. Sesabamisad, evro-atlantikuri regionis nacvlad yuradRebam gadainacvla evro paze, amavdroulad gaqra usafrTxoeba da darCa mxolod ekonomikuri da humanitaruli Tematika, Tumca amiT ideis arsi ar Secvlila.

unda iTqvas isic, rom mas Semdeg, rac mkveTrad gau-aresda dasavleTTan urTierToba ruseTis federaciis mier yirimis aneqsiisa da aRmosavleT ukrainaSi samxedro inter-venciis Semdegad, ruseTis xelisuflebam bevri ram Secva-la sakuTar gancxadebebsa da konceptualur dokumentebSi. Tumca zemoxsenebuli idea mainc SeinarCuna da asaxa sagareo politikis bolo koncefciaSic, romelic 2016 wlis bolos gamoqveynda13.

10

zogadad, ruseTis xelisuflebisTvis ufro damaxasi-aTebelia Zveli ideebis gacocxlebis mcdeloba, vidre axlis generireba. am SemTxvevaSic ase moxda _ radgan, rogorc Cans, axali geopolitikuri sivrcis Seqmnis idea ukve didi xania ganixileba ruseTis federaciis politikur elitaSi. ase, magaliTad, henri kisinjeri Tavis erT-erT yvelaze cnobil wignSi „diplomatia“ wers, rom vankuveridan vladivostokam-de axali geopolitikuri sivrcis Seqmnis idea jer kidev 1989 wels gamoTqva sabWoTa kavSiris komunisturi partiis maSin-delma generalurma mdivanma mixeil gorbaCovma evropis sab-Wos winaSe sityviT gamosvlisas. kisinjerisve SefasebiT, misi arsi evroatlantikuri erTobis Sesustebas emsaxureboda14.

cxadia, Tanamedrove ruseTis liderebsac igive amo-cana aqvT. gansakuTrebiT im fonze, rodesac civi omis Semdeg Camoyalibebuli saerTaSoriso sistema dasrulebulad miaC-niaT, cdiloben xeli Seuwyon axali mravalpolusiani siste-mis Camoyalibebas da amoZravebT dasavleTis wamyvan qveynebs Soris ganxeTqilebis Setanis interesi. miT umetes, rogorc sabWoTa, ise Tanamedrove ruseTis liderebma kargad ician, rom saerTo-evropuli sivrcis Seqmnis idea sxvadasxva etapze sakmaod popularuli iyo parizSic da berlinSic.

am ideis paralelurad, ruseTis federacia aseve aqti-urad lobirebs ganuyofeli usafrTxoebis ideas15. martivad rom avxsnaT, misi arsi SemdgomSi mdgomareobs: ar SeiZleba erTi qveynis usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa moxdes sxva rome-lime qveynis an qveynebis xarjze. es idea pirdapir ukavSird-eba ruseTis federaciis gavlenis sferos aRiarebas. realu-rad es niSnavs, rom ar SeiZleba natos gafarToeba, radgan es ewinaaRmdegeba ruseTis usafrTxoebis interesebs. mezobeli qveynebis sagareo-politikuri da usafrTxoebis interesebi, ra Tqma unda, ugulebelyofilia, radgan Tavisufali arCeva-nis gakeTebis SesaZleblobis daSveba mkveTrad ewinaaRmdege-ba postsabWoTa sivrceze ruseTis federaciis mier gavlenis srulad aRdgenis sasicocxlo interess.

Tu rogori unda iyos ruseTis federaciis adgili mravalpolusian msoflio wesrigSi, amis Taobaze kidev ufro

11

mkafio warmodgenas iZleva ruseTis pirveli pirebis sajaro publikaciebi, romlebic, cxadia, sruliad gacnobierebulad Seicaven mkafio politikur mesijebs. sakmarisia sul ramde-ni me magaliTis moyvana:

am Temaze laparakobs ruseTis federaciis prezidenti vladimer putini Tavis statiaSi, romelic 2011 wlis 3 oq-tombers gamoqveynda da mieZRvna „evraziis ekonomikur kav-Sirs“16. igi pirdapir acxadebs, rom „evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiris“ saxiT ruseTi msoflios sTavazobs zeerovnul gaerTianebas, romelsac SeuZlia gaxdes msoflios erT-erTi polusi da Seasrulos damakavSirebeli roli evropasa da swrafad ganviTarebad azias Soris.

unda aRiniSnos, rom ruseTis federaciis, rogorc dasavleTsa da aRmosavleT Soris damakavSirebeli rgo lis idea, romelsac sakuTari unikaluri kultura da diadi tradiciebi aqvs, Zalze popularulia ruseTis sazogadoe-baSi. am ideas, sxvadasxva formiT, xSirad ganavrcoben ro-gorc politikosebi, ise sazogadoebis cnobili warmomadgen-lebi. amis erT-erTi mkafio magaliTia ruseTis federaciis sagareo saqmeTa ministr sergei lavrovis statia, romelic 2016 wlis martSi gamoqveynda17. am statiaSi s. lavrovs mohyavs safrangeTis akademiis mudmivi mdivnis elen karer d’ankosis sityvebi, rom ruseTis imperia, yvela parametris mixedviT - moculobiT, sakuTari teritoriebis marTvis unariT, si-cocxlis xangrZlivobiT - yvela drois udidesi imperiaa. amasTan, statiis Tanaxmad, d’ankosi, cnobili rusi filoso-fosis nikolai berdiaevis msgavsad amtkicebs, rom ruseTs istoriam miakuTvna udidesi misia _ igi aRmosavleTisa da dasavleTis SemakavSirebeli rgolia18.

idea, rom ruseTi warmoadgens TviTmyofad civili-zacias da asrulebs Zalian mniSvnelovan damakavSirebel rols evropasa da azias Soris, Zalze popularulia ruseTis federaciis e.w. axal evrazionistul wreebSi, romlis erT-erTi yvelaze TvalsaCino warmomadgenelia aleqsandre dugi-ni. sayovelTaod cnobilia, rom axali evrazionistebis, gan-sakuTrebiT ki duginis, xedvebisa da ruseTis xelisuflebis

12

politikis Tanxvedra Zalze didia. Tumca mxolod es ar aris erTaderTi Tema, sadac maTi xedva erTmaneTs emTxveva.

duginisTvis iseve, rogorc evrazionistuli mimar-Tulebis sxva warmomadgenlebisTvis, damaxasiaTebelia e.w. SeTqmulebis TeoriebiT msjeloba. Tavis erT-erT yvelaze cnobil wignSi „geopolitikis safuZvlebi“ a. dugini Riad laparakobs aSS-isa da misi mokavSireebis mxridan ruseTis Seviwroebisa da masze zewolis gamalebul mcdelobaze19.

praqtikulad igive aRqma aqvs Tanamedrove ruseTis politikur elitasac, romelic miiCnevs, rom sabWoTa kav-Siris daSlis Semdeg ruseTi mizanmimarTulad iCagreboda.

ruseTis prezident vl. putins araerTxel ganucxadebia sajarod, rom ruseTis federacias mxolod maSin scemen pa-tivs, rodesac igi Zlieria. sxvagvarad mas aravin usmens, rac TavisTavad imas gulisxmobs, rom sxva saerTaSoriso aqtore-bi, gansakuTrebiT ki dasavleTis qveynebi, sruliad ugule-bel yofen mis erovnul interesebs.

igive poziciaa asaxuli ruseTis federaciis bolo, 2015 wlis erovnuli usafrTxoebis strategiaSi, sadac xaz-gasmulia, rom „ruseTis federaciis mxridan damoukidebeli Sida da sagareo politikis gatarebas ewinaaRmdegebian aSS da misi mokavSireebi, romlebic cdiloben SeinarCunon sakuTari dominireba msoflioSi mimdinare procesebSi“.20

isic unda iTqvas, rom ruseTis federacias ara mxolod Tanamedrove epoqaSi, aramed, zogadad, sakuTari ganviTa-rebis sxvadasxva etapze axasiaTebs SeTqmulebis TeoriebiT azrovneba. amis gamo ara mxolod dasustebisa da daSlis dros, aramed gaZlierebisa da gafarToebis pirobebSic ki ruseTi mudmivad safrTxis winaSe grZnobs Tavs. es ki did-wilad gansazRvravs ruseTis federaciis agresiul sagareo politikas da mudmiv swrafvas sakuTari gavlenis sferos gafarToebisken. amasTan, aseTi moqmedeba Tavs iCens imisda miuxedavad, rom ruseTis federaciis sisusteebi da sirTu-leebi ara sagareo, aramed Sida xasiaTisaa.

13

ZiriTadi instrumentebi, romlebzec ruseTis xelisufleba aqcents akeTebs saerTaSoriso asparezze sakuTari gavlenis

gasaZliereblad

dReisaTvis ruseTis federacia arc ekonomikuri da arc saxelmwifos ganviTarebis maxasiaTebeli sxva mniSv-nelovani parametriT ar miekuTvneba iseTi qveynis kategori-as, romelsac saerTaSoriso asparezze globaluri wvdomisa da saerTaSoriso politikur procesebSi gadawyvetilebis mimRebis ambicia unda hqondes. realurad rom SevafasoT, igi aris bevr sferoSi sakmaod CamorCenili qveyana, romelsac sakmaod seriozuli Sida gamowvevebi aqvs.

am fonze gansakuTrebiT araadekvaturia ruseTis fede raciis dRevandeli aqtiuroba saerTaSoriso asparez-ze. unda aRiniSnos, rom moskovis aqtiuroba vrceldeba ara mxolod mosazRvre qveynebsa da regionebze, aramed gacile-biT ufro daSorebul adgilebzec, sadac TiTqos ruseTis federacias erovnuli interesebi ar unda gaaCndes. aseTad SeiZleba davasaxeloT samxreT amerikis kontinenti, sadac bolo wlebSi ruseTis aqtivobis mzardi dinamika vlindeba. garda ekonomikuri interesebisa, ruseTis federaciis am aq-ti urobas gamokveTili politikuri interesi axlavs. kerZod, moskovi cdilobs aSS-is, romelsac mTavar mowinaaRmdeged miiCnevs, swored im regionSi Seuqmnas problemebi, romelic misi uSualo samezobloa.

saerTaSoriso asparezze ruseTis xelisuflebis aseT Tamam da aqtiur qmedebebs didwilad ganapirobebs ruseTis sazogadoebis aqtiuri mxardaWera. erTi SexedviT, SeiZleba vifiqroT, rom sazogadoebis aseT Zlier mxardaWeras ganapi-robebs sazogadoebrivi azris formirebis meqanizmebi, rom-lebic udavod Zalze efeqturia dRes ruseTis federaciaSi.

realurad mdgomareoba bevrad gansxvavebulia. saqme isaa, rom ruseTis sazogadoeba dRemde ver egueba sabWoTa kavSiris daSlas da myarad uWers mxars ruseTis saerTaSori-so gavlenis aRdgenis ideas. am mosazrebas iziarebs ruseTis federaciis bevri mkvlevari. aseve bevri maTgani miiCnevs,

14

rom ruseTis mosaxleoba ufro metad morCilia xelisuf-lebisa da ufro metad medegia qveyanaSi arsebuli sirTu-leebis mimarT, rac saboloo jamSi ruseTis xelisuflebas umartivebsgadawyvetilebebis miRebas. amis dasadastureblad sakmarisia gavixsenoT vl. putinis mimarT sazogadoebis mxar-daWeris mkveTri zrda yirimis aneqsiis Taobaze miRebuli gadawyvetilebis sapasuxod.

imavdroulad unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom ruseTis federaciis xelisufleba warmoadgens avtoritarul reJims. Sesabamisad, demokratiulad arCeuli xelisuflebisgan gan-sxvavebiT, bevrad ufro swrafad da martivad SeuZlia xisti gadawyvetilebebis miReba, maT Soris, sakuTari samxedro Za-lebis gamoyenebis Taobaze.

yovelive zemoTqmulTan erTad, Tu gavaanalizebT ru-seTis federaciis bolodroindel aqtivobas saerTaSoriso asparezze, vnaxavT, rom ruseTis xelisufleba Zalian efeq-tianad iyenebs sam ZiriTad instruments, kerZod:

1. samxedro Zala _ ruseTi birTvuli saxelmwifoa da, sxva-dasxva sferoSi CamorCenis miuxedavad, misi samxedro manqa-na kvalavac sakmaod Zlieria. birTvuli saxelmwifos mier ganxorcielebul agresiul politikaze sakadrisi pasuxis gacema aravisTvis aris advili amocana. miT umetes, rom ruseTi Riad akeTebs aqcents birTvuli iaraRis gamoyene-baze, riTac faqtobrivad aSantaJebs dasavleTs. aRsaniSna-via, rom ruseTis federaciis moqmedi samxedro doqtrinis Tanaxmad, ruseTi uflebas itovebs gamoiyenos birTvuli iaraRi ara mxolod mis winaaRmdeg birTvuli Setevis gan-xor cielebis SemTxvevaSi, aramed konvenciuri samxedro agresiis SemTxvevaSic, Tu safrTxe daemuqreba saxelmwi-fos arsebobas. garda amisa, ukrainisa da siriis magaliT ze kargad Cans, rom ruseTma mniSvnelovan warmatebebs miaRwia e.w. mcire omis taqtikis daxvewis TvalsazrisiT. kerZod, orive SemTxvevaSi ruseTis federaciam sakmaod warmatebiT Caatara samxedro operaciebi, SedarebiT mcire adamianuri danakargisa da materialuri danaxarjebis pirobebSi.

15

2. specsamsaxurebi _ kvlav maRali rCeba ruseTis specsam-saxurebis SeRwevis done msoflios sxvadasxva regionSi. maT saqmianobas aadvilebs is garemoebac, rom safarad isini Zalze efeqtianad iyeneben ruseTis kerZo kompanieb-sac, radgan ruseTis federaciaSi saxelmwifo kontroli kerZo seqtorze Zalze maRalia. specsamsaxurebis saqmi-anobis efeqtianobas zrdis kiberteqnologiebis ganviTa-rebac, rac informaciis mopovebis sakmaod kargi saSuale-baa. sadazvervo informaciis mopovebasTan erTad ruseTis federaciis specsamsaxurebi sakmaod did yuradRebas uTmo ben kidev erTi funqciis ganxorcielebas _ ucxo qveynaSi mimdinare procesebSi Carevis mcdeloba viTareba-ze ruseTis federaciisTvis sasurveli gavlenis moxdenis mizniT. ruseTis federaciis specsamsaxurebis swored am tipis aqtiurobis gamoa gadaqceuli aSS-isa da sxva qvey-nebis arCevnebSi ruseTis SesaZlo Careva saerTaSoriso politikis aqtiuri ganxilvis sagnad.

3. propaganda _ ruseTis federacia gansakuTrebul yuradRe-bas uTmobs efeqtiani propagandis warmoebas. es saqmianoba bolo wlebSi marTlac sagrZnoblad daixvewa. sakuTari saxelmwifo da arasaxelmwifo resursebis garda, ruse-Tis federacia propagandisTvis efeqtianad iyenebs ucxo qveynebis resursebsac, iqneba es ucxoeli eqspertebi, arasamTavrobo organizaciebi Tu mediasaSualebebi. unda aRiniSnos isic, rom rusuli propagandis ZiriTadi xazi sakmaod sworad aris SerCeuli, kerZod, rusuli propa-ganda, pirvel rigSi, ruseTis federaciis gapiarebas ki ar emsaxureba, aramed misi upirvelesi amocanaa im sa-xelm wifoebis antipiari, romlebsac ruseTis federacia mowinaaRmdeged miiCnevs. swored am amocanis farglebSi vrceldeba dasavleTis diskreditaciis mizniT Camoyali-bebuli myari narativi, romelSic igi warmoCenilia degra-direbis gzaze myof sazogadoebad, romelic dasaRupavad aris ganwiruli. am fonze rusuli propaganda cdilobs daamkvidros aRqma, rom ruseTis federacia aris Tanamed-rove msoflioSi tradiciuli Rirebulebebis upirvelesi damcveli.

16

daskvna

ruseTis xelisufleba dReisaTvis msoflioSi mimdina-re procesebs aRiqvams, rogorc „SesaZleblobis fanjaras“ sakuTari gavlenis gafarToebisTvis. moskovi miiCnevs, rom rac ufro swrafad da gabedulad imoqmedebs, miT ufro warmatebiT ganaxorcielebs sakuTar sagareo-politikur in-teresebs, gegmebsa da amocanebs.

moskovis mizania swrafi da gabeduli moqmedebebis Sedegad Seqmnas sruliad axali politikuri realiebi, Sem-deg ki TandaTanobiT Seaguos amas saerTaSoriso sazogadeba. swored am principiT moqmedebda ruseTis federacia 2008 wels saqarTvelos, xolo 2014 wels ki ukrainis winaaRmdeg. am SemTxvevebisgan Tvisebrivi gansxvavebis miuxedavad, imave principiT moqmedebs moskovi siriis SemTxvevaSic.

saerTo jamSi, moskovis mizania, rac SeiZleba male mi-aRwios gavlenis sferoebis xelaxal gadanawilebas msofli-oSi da moipovos eqskluziuri gavlena postsabWoTa qvey-nebze. amas rusi politikosebi da eqspertebi arc malaven. isini xSirad saubroben axali venis kongresis (an potsdamis an ialtis) saWiroebaze, sadac gavlenis sferoebze SeTanxmeba unda moxdes wamyvan moTamaSeebs Soris.

im fonze, rodesac xSiria saubari saerTaSoriso as-parezze ruseTis federaciis mzard gavlenaze, unda iTqvas isic, moskovis politika seriozul riskebs ukavSirdeba. miT umetes, rodesac ruseTis xelisuflebas sakmaod maRla aqvs Tamasa aweuli da praqtikulad sakuTari SesaZleblobebis zRvarze moqmedebs.

am masStabis aqtiurobas Tan sdevs garkveuli Secdome-bic. es bunebrivia, radgan yvelafris gaTvla SeuZlebelia. ase, magaliTad, ukrainis SemTxvevaSi ruseTis xelisuflebam ver gaTvala dasavleTis reaqcia. kerZod, ar eloda dasavle-Tis mxridan am raodenobis sanqciebis dawesebas an, rogorc minimum, imedi hqonda, rom maTi moxsna male moxerxdeboda da dasavleTTan urTierTobebi mogvardeboda.

17

ruseTis xelisflebas aseve hqonda ukrainis mosaxleo-baSi farTo masStabis prorusuli ganwyobebis molodini, rodesac igi lugansksa da doneckSi samxedro avantiuras iwyebda, misi mizani mxolod es regionebi ar iyo. savarau-dod, ruseTis federacias ufro farTo amocana hqonda, Tum-ca sabolood ise moxda, rom am regionebis did nawilzec ki ukrainam SeinarCuna kontroli.

miT ufro riskiani Cans ruseTis federaciis samxedro avantiura siriaSi. erTi mxriv, TiTqos yvelaferi moskovis-Tvis sasurveli scenariT viTardeba, magram ramdenad mniSv-nelovani politikuri dividendebi miiRo ruseTis federa-ciam siriaSi samxedro CareviT, bolomde gaugebaria.

gaugebaria isic, Tu rogor unda miiyvanos siriaSi situacia moskovma iseT etapamde, rom minimumamde davides Semdgomi garTulebebis riskebi. unda gaviTvaliswinoT, rom saubaria urTules regionze _ axlo aRmosavleTze, sadac tradiciulad uamravi interesi ikveTeba da sabrZolo moq-medebebma SeiZleba nebismier momentSi ifeTqos axali ZaliT. miT umetes, rom bolo xanebSi ramdenimejer Seiqmna krizisu-li viTareba, romelic araTu siriis konfliqtis ganaxlebis, aramed qveynebs Soris Setakebis riskebs Seicavda, rac bev-rad ufro saxifaToa.

saboloo jamSi, erTi mxriv, namdvilad Cans, rom ruse-Tis federacia moqmedebs swrafad da gabedulad saerTaSori-so asparezze. amasTan, igi sworad afasebs im sirTuleebs, romlebic dasavleTSi arsebobs. magram, meore mxriv, ar Cans, Tu rogor unda aRmoifxvras is sirTuleebi, romlebic ruse-Tis federacias aqvs an, Tundac, rogor unda Semcirdes misi CamorCena dasavleTisgan.

ruseTis xelisufleba gaTvlebs ZirTadad uaxloes momavalze akeTebs, grZelvadiani gaTvlebi ki, rogorc Cans, naklebad aqvs. Sesabamisad, am qveynis mier miRweuli saer-TaSoriso warmatebebi xSirad sakmaod myifea da movlenaTa pozitiuri da negatiuri dinamika mudmivad erTmaneTs enacv-leba.

18

SeniSvnebi

1. Послание Президента Федеральному Собранию. 2018 wlis 1 marti. www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957 (Accessed 06/03/18);

2. Стратегия национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. 2015 wlis 31 dekemberi. www.scrf.gov.ru/security/docs/document133/ (Accessed 06/03/18);

3. Dr. Sergei A. Karaganov, Kristina I. Cherniavskaia, Dmitry P. Novikov. Russian Foreign Policy - Risky success. Harvard International Review, Spring 2016 Volume 37, Number 3 pages 74-79;

4. Shanghai Institutes for International Studies Working Group. The Reform of Interna-tional Financial System and China’s Policy Options. www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/fachpublikationen/XueLei_ReformIntFinancialSystem_2009_01.pdf (Accessed 22/03/18)

5. Выступление Владимира Путина в Давосе. 2009 wlis 29 ianvari. www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=246949

6. Marc Champion, Andrew Batson. Russia, China Blame Woes on Capitalism. The Wall Street Journal 2009 wlis 29 ianvari. www.wsj.com/articles/SB123315961511224575 (Accessed 04/03.2018);

7. Cory Welt. Russia: Background and U.S. Policy. Congressional Research Service. 2017 wlis 21 agvisto. www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44775.pdf (Accessed 22/13/18)

8. Statement for the record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of The US Intelligence Com-munity. 2017 wlis 11 maisi. www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimo-nies/SSCI%20Unclassified%20SFR%20-%20Final.pdf (Accessed 15/03/18); Statement for the record Worldwide Threat Assessment of The US Intelligence Community, 2018 wlis 13 Tebervali. www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2018-ATA---Unclassified-SSCI.pdf (Accessed 14/02/18);

9. National Security Strategy of the United States of America. 2017 wlis dekemberi. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-2.pdf (Accessed 24/12/2017)

10. Концепция внешней политики Российской Федерации. 2008 wlis 15 ivlisi. www.kremlin.ru/acts/news/785 (Accessed 06/03/18);

11. Vladimir Putin. From Lisbon to Vladivostok. Süddeutschen Zeitung. 2010 wlis 25 noemberi. www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/putin-plaedoyer-fuer-wirtschaftsge-meinschaft-von-lissabon-bis-wladiwostok-1.1027908 (Accessed 06/03/18);

12. Концепция внешней политики Российской Федерации. 2013 wlis 12 Tebervali. www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/122186 (Accessed 06/03/18);

13. Концепция внешней политики Российской Федерации. 2016 wlis 30 noemberi. www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2542248 (Accessed 06/03/18);

14. Kissinger Henry. Diplomacy. Simon & Schuster 1994. pp. 798;

19

15. Владимира Путин. Россия и меняющийся мир. 2012 wlis 7 Tebervali. www.mn.ru/politics/78738 (Accessed 06/03/18); Стратегия национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. 2015 wlis 31 dekemberi. www.scrf.gov.ru/security/docs/document133/ (Accessed 06/03/18);Концепция внешней политики Российской Федерации. 2016 wlis 30 noemberi. www.mid.ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2542248 (Accessed 06/03/18);

16. Владимира Путин. Новый интеграционный проект для Евразии — будущее, которое рождается сегодня. 2011 wlis oqtomberi. www.iz.ru/news/502761 (Accessed 06/03/18);

17. Сергей Лавров. Историческая перспектива внешней политики России. 2016 wlis 3 marti. www.mid.ru/themes/-/asset_publisher/p12AYJypFaxg/content/id/2132855 (Accessed 06/03/18);

18. aRsaniSnavia, rom qalbatoni elen karer d’ankosi, romlis mama 1921 wels saqarTvelos gasabWoebis Semdeg parizSi gadasaxlebuli giorgi zurabiSvilia, marTlac iTvleba sabWoTa da ruseTis imperiis ubadlo mcodned. Tumca misi erT-erTi yvelaze cnobili wignia „damsxvreuli imperia“, romelic 1978 wels gamoqveynda da Seicavda varauds sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Taobaze.

19. Дугин Александр. Основы Геополитики. Арктогея 1997;

20. Стратегия национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. 2015 wlis 31 dekemberi. www.scrf.gov.ru/security/docs/document133/ (Accessed 06/03/18);