Savi zRvis regionis eleqtrogadacemis proeqti

proeqtis dagegmareba

GSE2008 wlis seqtemberi

1. proeqtis mizani

saqarTvelos energogeneraciis resursebi gamomdinareobs energiis ganaxlebadi wyaroebidan, wylisa da qaris energiebis CaTvliT, aseve Tbogeneraciidan. maTi hidroenergetikuli potencialis Sefaseba SeiZleba daaxloebiT 80 miliard kilovatsaaTamde weliwadSi, romelTaganac 60 miliardi kilovatsaaTi weliwadSi ekonomikurad mimzidveli iqneba. dResdReobiT sistema Sedgeba daaxloebiT 60 hidroeleqtrosadgurisagan, eleqtroenergiis generaciis maqsimaluri unariT 8 – 9.5 miliardi kilovatsaaTi weliwadSi (e.i. ekonomiurad dasabuTebuli potencialis 15%) da daaxloebiT 650 megavat Tbogeneraciisagan, romelic mdebareobs Tbilisis samxreT-aRmosavleTiT, gardabanSi. garda amisa, gaTvaliswinebulia kombinirebuli ciklis gazo-turbinuli eleqtrosadguris ori blokis mSenebloba (150-160 megavati). Tbogeneracia gamoiyeneba ZiriTadad zamTris periodSi, wyalmeCxerobis gasawonasworeblad, da aseve, pikuri moTxovnis sezonSi (gazafxuli-zafxuli) eqsportisaTvis.

saqarTvelos energosistemaSi arsebobs datvirTvisa da generaciis mniSvnelovani disbalansi: saqarTvelos energoresursebis ori mesamedi mdebareobs qveynis Crdilo-dasavleTiT, maSin rodesac samamulo moTxovnis ori mesamedi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSia ganlagebuli, xolo eqsportis potenciuri bazrebi saqarTvelos samxreTiTaa (e.i. TurqeTSi, iransa da eraySi, anu qveynebSi sadac mimdinareobs swrafi ekonomiuri ganviTareba da Sesabamisad izrdeba moTxovna eleqtroenergiaze). am bazrebze eleqtroenergiis miwodeba moiTxovs saimedo, maRali Zabvis magistraluri qselis arsebobas. dResdReobiT, dasavleT da aRmosavleT saqarTvelos mxolod erTi, 500 kilovoltiani xazi aerTebs – “imereTi” –“qarTli II” – “qarTli I”. aqedan gamomdinare, nebismieri gaumarTaoba aRniSnul xazze, iwvevs aRmosavleTSi mniSvnelovan energodeficits, mTel sistemaSi eleqtroenergiis xSiri gaTiSvebis CaTvliT. aRniSnuli aramarto amcirebs samamulo energosistemis saimedobas, aramed mniSvnelovnad zRudavs arsebul an momaval energogacvlas an saeqsporto potencials. garda survilisa iyos eleqtroenergiis eqsportiori, saqarTvelos gaaCnia survili gamoiyenos SesaZlebloba satranzito qveynad gaxdomisa, saxeldobr, ganaxorcielos eleqtroenergiis tranziti azerbaijanidan TurqeTSi.

gansaxilveli proeqti emsaxureba sam ZiriTad amocanas:

- saqarTvelos mTavari, 500 kilovoltiani sistemis gaZliereba;

- saqarTveloSi generirebuli Warbi eleqtroenergiis eqsportisaTvis Sesabamisi infrastruqturiT uzrunvelyofa;

- saqarTvelos interesebidan gamomdinare, kavkasiis regionSi energiiT vaWrobisaTvis aucilebeli infrastruriT uzrunvelyofa.

saxeldobr, proeqtis mizans warmoadgens saqarTvelos mTavari 500 kilovoltiani sistemis gafarToeba masze ori axali, gardabanidan zestafonisaken mimarTuli 500 kolovoltiani xazebisa da axalcixis raionSi, TurqeTTan sazRvris axlos, 500 kilovoltiani qvesadguris damatebis meSveobiT. axalcixe CarTuli iqneba TurqeTis eleqtrogadacemis energetikul qselSi asinqronulad, borCxasTan, gamoiyenebs ra mudmivi denis eleqtrogadacemas axalcixeSi da 400 kolovoltian sahaero xazs. moxdeba mSeneblobis gadanawileba qarTul da Turqul mxareebs Soris (Sesabamisad 130 da 20 kilometri). Turquli mxaris investicia Sefasebulia 45 milion evrod.

proeqtis idea warmoadgens qarTul/regionalur gadacemis sistemebze Catarebul rig kvlevaTa sagans:

- korporacia kuljianis mier (USTDA dafinansebiT) Catarebuli, saqarTvelos maRali Zabvis gadamcemi xazebis proeqtis ekonomiuri mizanSewonilobis analizi;

- fixtneris mier (KfW dafinansebiT) Sedgenili, kavkasiis qveynebisaTvis regionaluri energogadacemis gafarToebis gegma;

- ECON –is mier Sedgenili (saqarTvelos energetikis saministros mier miniWebuli uflebamosilebis safuZvelze), eqsportis potenciuri bazrebi saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiisaTvis;

- saqarTvelos gadacemaTa sistemebis dagegmarebis centris mier Sedgenili da USAID/USEA dafinansebuli azerbaijanidan TurqeTSi energotranzitis unaris analizi;

- GSE sistemis jgufis (1) mier gamokvleuli, ruseTidan/somxeTidan TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis tranziti;

kuljianis, fixtnerisa da ECON –is mier Catarebuli kvlevebi mocemulia danarT 1-Si, maSin rodesac GSE/GTU samuSao moyvanilia danarT 6-Si – datvirTvaTa nakadi da dinamiuri gamokvlevebi.

erToblivi proeqtis mizania xeli Seuwyos tranzits da axali, 500

kooperacia saqarTvelos saxelmwifo energosistemasa (GSE) da saqarTvelos teqnikur universitets Soris (GTU).

kilovoltiani kavSiris damTavrebas saqarTvelosa da azerbaijans Soris. am kavSiris sigrZe Seadgens 230 kilometrs – 30 kilometri qarTul da 200 kilometri azerbaijanul mxareze. investicia Sefasebulia rogorc 12 milioni evro saqarTvelosa da 80 milioni evro azerbaijanisaTvis.

2. proeqtis amocana

proeqtis ganxorcieleba moiTxovs Semdeg mSeneblobebsa da momzadebas:

- saqarTvelo TurqeTis sazRvarTan axlos, axalcixeSi, axali 500/400/220 kvt. qvesadguri;

- axalcixeSi axali, 500/400 kilovolt mudmivi denis gadacemis 1000 megavatiani bloki;

- axal, 400 kilovoltian sahaero gadamcem xazs axalcixedan saqarTvelo TurqeTis sazRvramde – 20 km. sigrZis qselis erTi xazi. (mosalodnelia, rom Turquli mxare daasrulebs xazis gayvanas borCxis sazRvridan 400 kilovoltian qvesadguramde TurqeTis siRrmeSi);

- 500 kilovoltiani sahaero gadamcemi xazis dasruleba gardabanSi arsebuli qvesadguridan axalcixis 500 kilovoltian qvesadguramde – qselis erTi, 190 kilometriani xazi, 15 kilometriani ormagi qselis SesvliT axalcixeSi. am kavSiris daaxloebiT 68 kilometri, gasuli saukunis oTxmociani wlebis bolos iqna aSenebuli, magram aRniSnuli xazi restavracias/reabilitacias saWiroebs. ganxorcieldeba aRniSnuli xazis darCenili 157 kilometris mSenebloba;

- 500 kilovoltiani sahaero gadamcemi xazis dasruleba zestafonSi arsebuli 500 kilovoltiani qvesadguridan axalcixemde - qselis erTi, 56 kilometriani xazi, 15 kilometriani ormagi qselis SesvliT axalcixeSi. am kavSiris daaxloebiT 17 kilometri, gasuli saukunis oTxmociani wlebis bolos iqna aSenebuli, magram aRniSnuli xazi restavracias/reabilitacias saWiroebs. ganxorcieldeba aRniSnuli xazis darCenili 54 kilometris mSenebloba;

- gardabnis 500 kilovoltiani qvesadguris gaZliereba gamanawilebeli mowyobilobis 500 kilovoltiani ujredis damatebis gziT, gardabani – axalcixis xazis SeerTebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT.

- Zestafonis 500 kilovoltiani qvesadguris gaZliereba (da reorganizacia rgolidan gamomrTvelamde da naxevrad Semkreb saltemde), zastafoni – axalcixis xazis SeerTebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT.

- SCADA GSE sistemis gafarToeba, misi axal infrastruqturasTan adaptaciis mizniT.

3. sargebeli

proeqti momgebiania rogorc saqarTvelosaTvis aseve adgilobrivi regionisaTvis, vinaidan zrdis saqarTvelos moZvelebuli maRali Zabvis eleqtruli qselis saimedobas da uzrunvelyofs samxreTkavkasiis regionis savaWro SesaZleblobebs. saqarTvelos, somxeTs, azerbaijans, ruseTsa da TurqeTs eqnebaT saSualeba iTanamSromlon eleqtroenergiis eqsportis, importis da tranzitis sakiTxebSi. yvela am sistemas saSualeba eqneba miiRos sargebeli saimedobisa da brunvadi (spininguri) rezervis Semcirebis SesaZleblobidan. saqarTvelo, iseve rogorc TurqeTi gazrdis hidrogeneraciis moxmarebas da amiT Seamcirebs wiaRiseuli sawvavis energiis gamoyenebasa da Sesabamisad naxSirbadis naerTebis gamoyofas.

finansebi

damproeqtebeli kompaniis garda, sargebels miiReben saqarTvelos sxva organoebic; saqarTvelos saxelmwifo energosistema (GSE) sargebels miiRebs Tavis qselebSi damatebiT energiisa da mTavari sistemis saimedobis gazrdis saxiT, aramiwodebadi energiis Semcirebis pirobebSi; hidrogeneraciisa da energiis sxva damoukidebeli mwarmoebelni (IPPs) uzrunvelyofilni iqnebian Warbi energiis TurqeTSi eqsportisaTvis aucilebeli infrastruqturiT.

saqarTvelos qselebis saimedoba

zestafonidan gardabnamde 500 kilovoltian mTavar sistemaze meore trasis damateba, gazrdis dasavleT saqarTvelodan aRmosavleT saqarTvelomde eleqtromomaragebis saimedobas. Semcirdeba 500 kilovoltiani xazis dazianebiT (da 220 kilovoltian xazze SeferxebebiT) gamowveuli aragadacemuli eleqtroenergiis raodenoba.

500 kilovoltian sistemaSi (garda imereTis xazisa) dazianebebis gamo, aragadacemuli energiis raodenobam 2007 wels Seadgina 1.2 gigavati. erT kilovatze Seferxebis Rirebulebis gadaangariSebisas, fixtneris gansazRvrebiT (0.4 evro), saqarTvelosaTvis aRniSnuli zarali Seadgens weliwadSi 480 000

evros, rac aRmofxvrili iqneba axali proeqtis ganxorcielebis Semdeg.

garda amisa, 500 kilovoltian sistemaSi Semcirdeba momxmareblis eleqtromomaragebaze moqmedi mudmiv gaumarTaobaTa raodenoba. qvemoTmdebare cxrilebSi xdeba zemoTTqmulis ilustrireba (saerTaSoriso normaze - 0.4 mudmivi gaumarTaoba yovel 100km/weliwadSi, dayrdnobiT):

xazis dasaxeleba

sigrZe (km)dazianebis

norma (yovel 100km/weliwadi)

Mmosalodneli dazianebebi

erT weliwadSiimereTi 130 0.4 0.52

qarTli I/II 340 0.4 1.36saerTo

eqvivalenti axal

proeqtamde

490 0.4 1.88

cxrili 3-1: dazianebaTa normebi arsebuli 500/300 kilovoltiani sistemisaTvis.

xazis dasaxeleba

sigrZe (km)dazianebis

norma (yovel 100km/weliwadi)

Mmosalodneli dazianebebi

erT weliwadSiimereTi 130 0.4 0.52

qarTli I/II 340 0.4 1.36Aaxalcixe-gardabani

205 0.4 0.82

Aaxalcixe-zestafoni

70 0.4 0.28

saerTo eqvivalenti

axali proeqtis Semdeg

130 0.4 0.52

cxrili 3-2: dazianebaTa normebi axali 500/300 kilovoltiani sistemisaTvis.

cxrilebSi 3-1 da 3-2 naCvenebia, rom axali, Siga 500 kilovoltiani xazebis damateba (zestafonsa da gardabans Soris arsebul, qarTlis 500 kilovoltiani xazebis paralelurad), Seamcirebs 500 kilovoltian xazebze momxmareblis energomomaragebaze uSualod moqmed dazianebaTa saSualo ricxvs, weliwadSi ori dazianebidan

or weliwadSi erT dazianebamde, anu imereTis xazis dazianebaTa normis toli ricxviT.

spininguri rezervis Semcireba

saqarTvelosa da TurqeTs Soris xazebis gaZliereba, orive qveynis sistemisaTvis gamoiwvevs spiningur rezervze moTxovnilebis Semcirebas. aRniSnuli saSualebas miscems sistemis operatorebs imgvarad gadaanawilon spininguri rezervi, rom Semcirdes ZviradRirebuli Termogeneraciis dagegmva orive mxarisaTvis.

Semdgomi hidroenergetikuri mSeneblobis xelSewyoba

saqarTveloSi hidroenergetikuli generaciis msxvili obieqtebis garemos/mSeneblobis Semdgomi ganviTareba damokidebuli iqneba energobazrebis arsebobaze. dResdReobiT, damuSavebis stadiaSi myofi hidroenegetikuli proeqtebi (onis, namaxvanis da mtkvris kaskadebi), moaxdenen umetes wilad qveynis energiiT uzrunvelyofas zafxulis TveebSi, anu im periodSi rodesac saqarTvelos isedac gaaCnia Warbi eleqtruli tevadoba, amitom aucilebelia gareSe bazrebis miwvdomadoba, razec pirdapiraa damokidebuli investorisaTvis sicocxlisunarianobis damtkiceba. aRniSnuli proeqti SeZlebs uzrunvelyos TurqeTis bazris miwvdomadoba hidroenergiis axali mwarmoeblebisaTvis, riTac mniSvnelovnad gaaumjobesebs sainvesticio klimats saqarTvelos energoseqtorSi.

danakargebis Semcireba sistemaSi

danarT 7-Si mocemulia axalcixeSi ori axali xazis mwyobrSi Sesvlis gavlena saqarTvelos gadacemaTa sistemaSi mosalodnel danakargebze. danakargebis Semcireba saSualod Seadgens 0.26%. imis daSvebiT, rom saerTo erovnuli datvirTva Seadgens 9TWh, xolo generaciis saSualo Rirebuleba 0.025 evros erT kilovatze, SesaZlebeli iqneba erT weliwadSi 585 000 evros dazogva generaciaze.

naxSirbadis naerTebis gamoyofis Semcireba

Termogeneraciis Semcireba an misi Secvla hidrogeneraciiT SesaZlebelia:

- sistemaSi danakargebis SemcirebiT;- dasavleT saqarTvelosa (sadac mdebareobs hidrogeneraciis

mTavari obieqti) da Tbilisis datvirTvis centrs Soris kavSiris srulyofiT, sadac ganlagebulia Teremogeneraciis obieqtebis umravlesoba;

- Warbi energiis saqarTvelodan TurqeTSi eqsportiT, sadac datvirTvis zrda weliwadSi 5% aRwevs da sistemis mier CO2 -is specifiuri gamoyofa saqarTvelosas aRemateba. imis daSvebiT, rom xazi moaxdens hidrogenerirebuli eleqtroenergiis gadacemas weliwadSi eqvsi Tvis ganmavlobaSi, SeiZleba iTqvas rom, CO2-is gamoyofa weliwadSi 1.1 m. toniT Semcirdeba.

garda zemoTTqmulisa, axali, hidrogenerirebuli eleqtroenergiisaTvis bazris Seqmna, xels Seuwyobs regionSi arawiaRiseuli sawvavis energiis warmoebis ganviTarebas.

4. warmoebis danaxarjebis Sefaseba

milioni evro

axalcixis 500/400/220 kilovoltiani qvesadguri,

HVDC (mudmivi denis eleqtrogadacema) CaTvliT

500 kilovoltiani sadguri

10.5

Mmudmivi denis ukueleqtrogadacema

74.5

400 kolovoltiani sadguri

5.0

saSualo Sedegi 90.0

Qqvesadgurebis ganviTarebagardabani, 500 kilovolti 1.8zestafoni, 500 kilovolti 5.6

saSualo Sedegi 7.4

sahaero xazis mSenebloba

gardabani-axalcixe, 500 kilovolti

64.2

zestafoni-axalcixe, 500 kilovolti

19.0

Aaxalcixe-TurqeTis 4.8

sazRvari, 400 kilovoltisaerTo Sedegi 88.0

xarjis Sefaseba gauTvaliswinebeli xarjis

gare185.4

gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi 27.6konsultanti 7.0

Sedegi 220.0

cxrili 4-1: proeqtis xarjebis Sefaseba

xarjebis Sefaseba efuZvneba analogiuri proeqtebis gamocdilebas da masSi ar aris gaTvaliswinebuli damatebiTi Rirebulebis gadasaxadi, sxva gadasaxadebi da sabaJo mosakreblebi.

5. samuSaoTa warmoebis grafiki (kalendaruli gegma)

samuSaoTa warmoebis saorientacio grafiki warmodgenilia danarT 5-Si da misi rezumireba Semdegi saxiT SeiZleba moxdes:

Ddasrulebis TariRi

sesxis damtkicebaPproeqtis SefasebiTi

angariSi09/08

SeTanxmeba dafinansebis Sesaxeb

10/08

sesxis damtkiceba 04/09Mmoqmedi sesxi 06/09

Ggaremoze zemoqmedebis

Sefaseba

teqnikuti davalebis momzadeba

09/08

konsultantis daniSvna 10/09angariSi miwodebis Sesaxeb 04/09

proeqtis konsultantis

daniSvna

teqnikuti davalebis momzadeba

09/08

konsultantis daniSvna 10/08

Mmoijareebis daniSvna

specifikaciebisa da satendero dokumentebis

Sedgena01/09

satendero gadasaxadi 04/09kontraqtis xelmowera 06/09

gadacemaTa xazebi trasebis Seswavla 09/09sadgarebis proeqtireba da

dadgma10/09

warmoeba 04/10sabazo samuSaoebi 09/10

sadenebis dayeneba da dakideba

03/11

kompleqtacia 05/11qvesadgurebi proeqtireba 10/09

warmoeba 03/11miwodeba 08/11montaJi 10/11

kompleqtacia 02/12gardamqmneli

sadguriproeqtireba 12/09

warmoeba 04/11montaJi 03/12

kompleqtacia 06/12HHVDC gamosacdeli periodi 09/12

cxrili 5-1: samuSaoTa warmoebis SeTavazebuli grafiki

samuSaoTa warmoebis SeTavazebuli grafikidan Cans, rom xazebis miwodeba SeiZleba moxdes 2011 wlis maisSi, xolo qvesadgurebis (makonventirebeli sadgurebis garda) eqspluotacia daiwyeba 2012 wlia TebervalSi. es imas niSnavs, rom axali sadguri axalcixeSi da xazebi gardabansa da zestafonSi 2012 wlidan xels Seuwyoben saqarTvelos mTavari sistemis saimedobas danakargebisa da aragadacemuli energiis Semcirebis gziT. makonventirebeli sadguri mwyobrSi 2012 wlis dasasruls Cadgeba, da Sesabamisad misi gamoyeneba energiis damoukidebeli, axali mwarmoeblebis mier SesaZlebeli iqneba 2013 wlis bolos – 2014 wlis dasawyisSi.

grafikSi warmodgenili, samidan ukanaskneli sesxis damtkicebisa da ZalaSi Sesvlis vada damokidebulia garemoze proeqtis zemoqmedebis Sefasebaze. sesxTan dakavSirebuli molaparakebebis CatarebisaTvis aucilebeli drois faqtoris gaTvaliswinebiT, sesxis ZalaSi Sesvlis vada Seadgens savaraudod or Tves misi damtkicebis momentidan. im SemTxvevcaSi, Tu sesxis detalebi winaswaraa SeTanxmebuli, SesaZlebelia am vadis Semcireba.

da mainc, warmodgenili grafikis kritikul wertils garemoze zemoqmedebis Sefaseba da gardamqmneli sadgurebis miwodeba warmoadgens. aRsaniSnavia, rom sesxis ZalaSi Sesvla damokidebulia garemoze zemoqmedebis Sefasebaze da savaraudod ar

moxdeba ZiriTadi kontraqt(eb)is xelmowera, yvela saxis sesxis ZalaSi Sesvlamde.

6. TurqeTis bazris analizi

danarT 2-Si mocemulia TurqeTis energobazris dawvrilebiTi analizi da saqarTvelodan TurqeTSi eqsportis SesaZleblobebi. SesaZlebelia moxdes winandebare analizis sakvanZo daskvnebis Semdegnairi rezumireba:

TurqeTis energoseqtori deregulirebulia, anu misi monawileobis moculoba saxelmwifo ekonomikaSi umniSvneloa. generaciis aqtivebis umetesi nawili kerZo sakuTrebaSia da eleqtroenergiisaTvis arsebobs kerZo sabiTumo bazari. TurqeTidan eleqtroenergiis importi da eqsporti xorcieldeba TETAS-is –sabiTumo makleris mier, romelic ekuTvnis saxelmwifos da 25 kerZo kompanias, romlebsac dResdReobiT gaaCniaT sabiTumo vaWrobis licenzia.

swrafad izrdeba moTxovnileba eleqtroenergiaze, mosalodnelia rom 2016 wlisaTvis aucilebeli saerTo energogeneracia miaRwevs 321-378 t.vatsaaTi, 12-26 t.vatsaaTi an 6-7.5% wliuri zrdis pirobebSi. datvirTvis profili aCvenebs rogorc zamTris aseve zafxulis piks.

hidroenergewtikuli generaciis masobrivi zrdis, samamulo lignitis (mura naxSiri) gamoyenebiT dadegmili qvanaxSiris mrewvelobis zrdisa da birTvuli energetikis obieqtebis mSeneblobis gegmebis miuxedavad, TurqeTi cdilobs miaRwios moTxovnilebis zrdas 2012 wlis periodSi.

Tu mTavroba ar miiRebs drakonul zomebs eleqtroenergiis tarifebis mniSvnelovani zrdis kuTxiT saboloo momxmareblisaTvis, TurqeTSi, 2012 wlis periodSi, mosalodnelia momxmarebelTa gamorTvis zrda energosistemis gadatvirTvisas.

TurqeTis kerZo sabiTumo bazarze eleqtroenergiis fasi yvelaze maRalia evropaSi. 2007 wlis aprilidan 2008 wlis aprilamde kerZo sabiTumo fasi 13% gaizarda, saSualod 7.7 evrocenti kilovatsaaTze.

kerZo sabiTumo fasebis mkveTri zrda ZiriTadad ganpirobebulia imiT, rom sistemis zRvruli mwarmoeblebi, romlebic moixmaren bunebriv airs, Seejaxnen bunebrivi airis maRal Sesasyid fasebs.

TurqeTSi bunebrivi airis importis saSualo fasi 2008 wels Seadgenda 223 evros aTas kubur metrze, xolo 2009 wels mosalodnelia misi zrda.

mosalodnelia, rom sabiTumo fasebi TurqeTSi maRali darCeba, Tu ar moxda navTobis/gazis fasebis mniSvnelovani Semcireba, an Tu ar iqna sanqcionirebuli eleqtroenergiis arsebiTi gamomuSaveba qvanaxSiris wvis Sedegad, adgilobrivi lignitis (mura naxSiri) gamoyenebiT.

Turqi politikosebi Zalzed dainteresebulni arian eleqtroenergiis importiT mezobeli qveynebidan, saqarTvelos CaTvliT. importi borCxadan (TurqeTi) 400 kilovoltiani xazis gavliT, misi sruli datvirTvis SemTxvevaSi Seadgens eleqtroenergiaze TurqeTis saerTo moTxovnis 2-4% da ver SeZlebs moaxdinos materialuri zemoqmedeba sabiTumo fasebze.

vinaidan TurqeTi saWiroebs imports, qarTuli hidroeleqtrosadgurebi iqnebian konkurentunarianni Turqul bazarze, moqmed hidroeleqtrosadgurebisaTvis Zalzed dabali zRvruli xarjebis gamo.

Turq politikosebs surT, rom kerZo seqtoris maklerebma ganaxorciolon eleqtroenergiis importi saqarTvelosa da azerbaijanidan da gamoricxon TETAS-i, uzrunvelyon energoSesyidvebis nebismieri grZelvadiani SeTanxmebani eleqtroenergiis eqsportiorebisaTvis fiqsirebuli fasebis pirobebSi.

TurqeTis kerZo seqtoris sando kompaniebi dainteresebulni arian imuSaon saqarTvelodan eleqtroenergiis agent-importiorebad.

savaraudod, saqarTvelos hidroenergetikuli proeqtebi SeZleben srulad gamoiyenon gadacemaTa xazi TurqeTis mimarTulebiT, weliwadSi sul mcire eqvsi Tvis ganmavlobaSi, aprilidan seqtembramde periodSi.

arniSnuli daskvnebi miuTiTeben TurqeTSi mniSvnelovani bazris arsebobaze (moklevadiani, saSualovadiani da grZelvadiani) saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiisaTvis, mimzidveli fasebis pirobebSi. arsebobs aRniSnul bazarze gayidvebTan dakavSirebuli garkveuli riskebi, kerZod:

- navTobze/gazze fasebis mniSvnelovani vardna – aRniSnuli arasasurvelia dResdReobiT msiflioSi arsebuli klimatisaTvis;

- gadaxra deregulirebuli garemodan saxelmwifo kontrolisaken da seqtoris subsidirebisaken – aRniSnuli metad arasasurvelia TurqeTis evrokavSiris wevrobisaken miswrafebasTan mimarTebaSi;

- iafi importi samxreT-aRmosavleT evropidan – arasasurvelia bunebriv airsa da qvanaxSirze dafuZvnebuli evrokavSiris eleqtrogeneraciis konkurireba saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiis generaciasTan;

- TurqeTis ekonomikis kolafsi – aRniSnulma SeiZleba gadaavados eqsportis SesaZlebloba, magram ver SeZlebs mis acilebas.

7. saqarTvelos hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSenebloba

danarT 3-Si mocemulia saqarTvelos hidroeleqtrosadgurebis potencialuri mSeneblobis dawvrilebiTi aRwera. qvemoT rezumirebulia sakvanZo daskvnebi:

saqarTvelo flobs evropaSi yvelaze vrcel sawyalosno resursebs. teqnikur-ekonomiuri potenciali fasdeba 60 t.vatsaaTamde, romelTagan daaxloebiT 8 t.vatsaaTi anu 15% naklebi damuSavebulia.

2007 wels eleqtroenergiis hidrogeneraciis wilma eleqtroenergiis srul warmoebaSi 78% Seadgina, Termulma generaciam – 17%, importma daaxloebiT 5%, moxda generirebuli eleqtroenergiis daaxloebiT 8% eqsporti, ZiriTadad zafxulis periodSi, maSin rodesac eleqtroenergiis gamomuSavebis SesaZlebloba imyofeba pikur mdgomareobaSi saqarTvelos mdinareTa dinebis hidrodinamikuri badis gamo. naxazze 7-1 moyvanilia wliuri generaciis diagramis ilustracia.

naxazi 7-1: saqarTveloSi generaciis profili da eqsporti 2007 wels

Hydro generation

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2007 wels saqarTvelom ganaxorciela daaxloebiT 625 gigavatsaaTi eleqtroenergiis eqsporti, ZiriTadad gacvliTi kontraqtebis safuZvelze mezobel saxelmwifoebTan, romelTa safuZvelzec xdeboda zafxulis generaciis Warbi eleqtroenergiis gayidva zamTarSi importirebuli eleqtroenergiis sanacvlod. wminda eqsportis jami Seadgens 192 gigavatsaaTs.

eleqtroenergiaze sabiTumo fasebis Sedareba saqarTvelosa da TurqeTSi gvaCvenebs sxvaobas eleqtroenergiis Sesyidvis Rirebulebebs Soris. maSin rodesac TurqeTSi, kerZo seqtoris mier gamomuSavebul eleqtroenergiaze saSualo sabiTumo tarifi Seadgens 8.3 evrocents kilovatsaaTze 2007 wlis agvistodan 2008 wlis ivlisamde da 9.3 evrocents kilovatsaaTze 2008 wlisivlisSi, saqarTveloSi imave periodSi saSualo fasma Seadgina 2.7 evrocent kilovatsaaTze. naxazze 7-2 moyvanilia fasebis sxvaoba wlis ganmavlobaSi.

naxazi 7-2: eleqtroenergiis sabiTumo fasebi saqarTvelosa da TurqeTSi, 2007 marti – 2008 ivlisi

Turkey private wholesale tariff

Georgia balancing tariff ESCO

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Turkey 5,45 6,17 5,77 6,50 7,26 6,82 6,11 6,01 7,41 7,69 9,09 9,01 8,25 7,74 8,32 8,03 9,33

Georgia 2,38 2,52 1,72 1,74 0,89 1,74 2,85 3,64 3,72 4,04 3,75 3,85 2,90 1,19 1,53 1,53 1,15

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ukanasknel wlebSi saqarTvelos ekonomika swrafad viTardeboda eleqtroenergiis gamomuSavebaze moTxovnilebis SesamCnevi zrdis gareSe. 2007 wels, rodesac ekonomika 12.4% gaizarda, moTxovna eleqtroenergiis generaciaze gaizarda daaxloebiT 3%. eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis neli zrda ganapiroba energetikul seqtorSi mimdinare modernizaciam, romlis Sedegad Semcirda danakargebi gadacemisa da ditribuciis dros. naxazze 7-3 mocemulia saqarTvelosaTvis mosalodneli moTxovnileba 2008 –2016 wlebSi (gigavatsaaTi).

Mmosalodneli zrda 3% weliwadSi2007 (faqtiuri) 84382008 86912009 89522010 92202011 94972012 97822013 100752014 103782015 106892016 11010

naxazi 7-3

arsebobs mTeli rigi mwvane adgilebisa, romlTa gadacemas saqarTvelos mTavroba kerZo seqtoris investorebisaTvis gegmavs. aseTebia namaxvanis kaskadi, sadac Catarda teqnikur-ekonomikuri kvleva, aseve onisa da mtkvris kaskadebi.

mTavroba aseve ganixilavs mdinare rionis zewdawelSi, onisa da namaxvanis kaskadebs Soris axali kaskadis mSeneblobis SesaZleblobas. wliuri jamuri generacia am adgilebidan Sefasebulia rogorc 5.7 t.vatsaaTi, rac TiTqmis orjer aRemateba saqarTveloSi gamomuSavebul eleqtroenergiis raodenobas.

aRniSnul adgilebSi igegmeba SedarebiT mcire rezervuarebis mSenebloba, romlebic sawyalosno nakadebis sezonur diagramebTan Sesabamisad, moaxdenen eleqtroenergiis umetesi nawilis zafxulis sezonSi gamomuSavebas, anu maSin rodesac eleqtroenergiis fasebi saqarTveloSi yvelaze dabalia da qveyana axorcielebs mis eqsports.

qvemoTmoyvanil naxazze naCvenebia daproeqtebis stadiaSi myofi saqarTvelos hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mier mosalodneli wliuri generaciis profili.

naxazi 7-4: generaciis damatebiTi tevadoba da moTxovnis zrda, saqarTvelo, 2016 weli.

- arsebuli hidroeleqtrosadgurebis reabilitacia- rionis zeda kaskadi- mtkvris kaskadi- namaxvanis kaskadi- onis kaskadi- datvirTvis zrda 2016 wlamde, 3% p.a.- Tbogeneracia, 2007w.

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Thermal production 2007

saqarTvelos axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebis tevadobis gantoleba (romelic warmodgenilia naxazze 7-5, sxva teqnologiebTan SedarebiT) gvaCvenebs, Tu ramdenad konkurentunariani SeiZleba iyos aRniSnuli axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebi TurqeTis bazarze. saqarTvelos hidroeleqtrosadgurebma moaxdines birTvuli, qvanaxSirisa da bunebrivi airis moxmarebis saSualebiT miRebuli eleqtroenergiis Rirebulebis nivelireba, sawvavze maRali fasebis gaTvaliswinebiT, romlebic dafiqsirda 2008 wlis SuawelSi. gaTvlebis meSveobiT, hidroenergetikuli danadgarebis sicocxlisunarianoba ganisazRvreba rogorc 30 weli. navTobze/gazze da qvanaxSirze maRali fasebis gaTvaliswinebiT, hidrogeneraciis meSveobiT miRebuli eleqtroenergia warmoadgens energiaTa saxeobebs Soris yvelaze iafs.

navTobis/gazis agregatebi warmoadgenen saqarTvelos/TurqeTis sistemaSi zRvrul mwarmoeblebs da amrigad daadgenen eleqtroenergiis fasebs TurqeTis sistemisaTvis misi sabiTumo bazris sruli deregulaciis (saxelmwifo kontrolidan gamosvlis) Semdeg da gansazRvraven hidroeleqtrosadgurebis sufTa mogebas. proeqtebis realizaciis 20 wliani gegma 20-24% SefasebiT, warmogvidgens zemoTnaxseneb adgilebs metad mimzidvelad kerZo investorebisaTvis.

naxazi 7-5: saqarTvelos axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebis blokebis Rirebulebis nivelireba alternatiul teqnologiebTan SedarebiT

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O&M 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,9 5,9 6,7 2,9 7,9 5,9

Investment 31,9 33,7 37,4 10,3 35,6 64,2 10,2 64,4 35,5

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Oni HPP*Mktvari HPP*

CCGT 200

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Coal 55 USD/t

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Coal 150 USD/t

naxaz 7-6-ze warmodgenilia oTxi hidroeleqtrosadguridan eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergiis saSualo wliuri raodenoba, xazis mzidi unari da eleqtrosadgurebis wminda simZlavre.

naxazi 7-6: axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebidan eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergia

2016 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIOonis kaskadi 81.8 74.3 85.9 146.4 202.5 182.7 183.7 186.4 126.7 104.7 89.5 86.2

namaxvanis kaskadi

70.0 58.7 73.1 253.3 257.0 226.3 171.4 109.8 135.1 163.7 101.4 23.7

mtkvris kaskadi

29.1 27.2 33.9 138.2 188.7 112.9 58.1 29.8 23.3 27.0 29.3 29.5

rionis zeda kaskadi

85.2 71.4 88.9 308.3 312.8 275.3 208.5 133.7 164.4 199.2 123.4 28.8

arsebuli hes-ebis reabilitacia

120.5 127.8 128.6 122.6 149.6 141.0 184.3 179.4 123.7 83.6 108.4 106.1

2007w. eleqtroenergiis eqsporti

6.7 7.2 9.7 7.1 64..3 68.7 208.4 180.5 40.1 15.9 4.6 12.2

2016 w. datvirTvis zrda 3% p.a.

240 216 229 205 172 160 172 176 166 176 212 259

arsebuli xazebis tevadoba

730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

tevadobis moTxovna 2016w.

6.7 7.2 9.7 771 1003 847 842 644 448 15.9 4.6 12.2

eqsportirebuli simZlavre

6.7 7,2 9.7 730.0 730.0 730.0 730.0 644.1 447.5 15.9 4.6 12.2

savsebiT realuria vivaraudod, rom saqarTvelos hidroeleqtroproeqtTa umravlesoba, Ty yvela proeqti ara dafinansdeba TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportiT mirRebuli Semosavlebidan, im SemTxvevaSi Tu TurqeTis sabiTumo myidvelebi qarTul eleqtroenergiaSi gadaixdian 5.7 - 8.3 evrocents kilovatsaaTze, miwodebis dawyebiT 2013-2014 wlebSi. Eeleqtroenergiaze saSualo moTxovnisas, im SemTxvevaSi, Tu

namaxvanis hes-i

Oonis hes-i

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CCGT 200

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qvanaxSiri 55 USD/t

sanapiro qari

CCGT 400

USD/tcm

birTv.energia

qvanaxSiri 55 USD/t

sawvavi 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 15.0 0.0 58.9 4.7 41.0navT&gazi 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 5.9 6.7 2.9 7.9 5.9investicia 31.9 33.7 37.4 10.3 36.6 64.2 10.2 64.4 35.5

navTobisa da gazis fasebi barelze 80 aSS dolaris doneze SenarCundeba, realuria vivaraudod, rom msgavsi kontraqtebi mxardaWeras hpovebs Turquli mxridan, yovel SemTxvevbaSi fasebis dabali diapazonis SemTxvevaSi mainc.

TurqeTis mimarTulebiT eleqtrogadamcemi xazis mSenebloba gamoanTavisuflebs daaxloebiT 1.3 miliardi sididis investicias, romlebic SeiZleba moxmardes saqarTveloSi msxvili eleqtrosadgurebisa da rigi mcire hidroeleqtrisadgurebis mSeneblobas. mSenebare eleqtrosadgurebze TurqeTSi moqmedi moklevadiani dabegvris gamo, saqarTvelos mwvane samSeneblo ubnebs gaaCniaT mniSvnelovani upiratesoba analogiur Turqul samSeneblo ubnebTan SedarebiT. onis hidroeleqtrosadguris Rirebulebis upiratesoba analogiur Turqul ubanTan 20-30% Seadgens, saqarTvelodan TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis gadacemis Rirebulebis gaTvaliswinebiT.

TurqeTis mimarTulebiT eleqtrogadamcemi xazis arsebobis gareSe, saqarTveloSi hidroenergetikuli resursebis mSeneblobaSi daintereseba SezRuduli iqneba, Tu adgilobrivi tarifebi, an tarifebi mezobel qveynebSi, magaliTad ruseTSi, mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba. rac Seexeba ruseTs, igi ukve aris dakavSirebuli saqarTvelosTan maRali Zabvis gadamcemi xaziT.

saqarTveloSi hidroenergetikuli proeqtebis realizaciisaTvis aucilebeli drois (3-5 weli) gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelo SeZlebs ganaxorcielos TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis mniSvnelopvani raodenobis eqsporti arauadres 2013 wlisa.

TurqeTis gasaRebis bazris miwvdomadobis perspeqtivas, eniWeba pirvelxarisxovani mniSvneloba saqarTvelos hidroenergetikuli potencialis ganviTarebisaTvis. saqarTveloSi erTerTi msxvili hidroeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis potenciuri investori, savaraudod moiTxovs grZelvadian garantias TurqeTSi elertroenergiis fiqsirebul fasad eleqtrogadacemis mimarTebiT, manam, sanam moaxdens investicias regionis ganviTarebaSi.

8. sabaziso analizi

gansaxilveli proeqtis finansuri da ekonomiuri sabaziso Sefaseba SesaZlebelia aRiweros ori, sakvanZo mosazrebis meSveobiT:

1. TurqeTis energobazars SeuZlia aiTvisos 1 000 megavati eleqtroenergia, romlis gadacemac saqarTveloSi aSenebuli axali eleqtrogadamcemi xazis meSveobiT moxdeba.

2. saqarTveloSi aSenebuli hidroeleqtrosadgurebi gaxdebian TurqeTis mier importirebuli eleqtroenergiis ZiriTadi wyaro.

pirveli mosazreba iTvaliswinebs im faqts, rom axlaxans TELAS-isa da EMRA-s mier Catarebuli gamoTvlebis Tanaxmad, 2012 wlisaTvis mosalodnelia eleqtroenergiis miwodebis Semcirebasul mcire 25 000 gigavatiT, arsebuli, mSenebare da dagegmili magenerirebeli sadgurebidan. aRniSnuli deficitis dafarva moxdeba generaciis axali proeqtebisa da importis meSveobiT. moTxovnisa da miwodebis Soris mosalodneli disbalansis gaTvaliswinebiT saeWvoa rom, TurqeTis bazari advilad SeZlebs aiTvisos saqarTvelodan an mis gavliT miwodebuli damatebiTi eleqtroenergia, im pirobiT, rom amgvari importi konkurentunariania.

meore mosazreba efuZvneba im TvalnaTel faqts, rom saqarTvelos eleqtroenergetikuli resursebi warmoadgens im Termomagenerirebeli sadgurebis iaf alternativas, romlebic bunebriv airze an qvanaxSirze muSaoben (danarTi 3, cxrili 3.6). hidroenergetikuli resursebis ganviTareba warmoadgens momgebian wamowyebas, gansakuTrebiT energiis nawilis TurqeTis bazarze realizebis SemTxvevaSi. amgvarad, TurqeTis mimarTulebiT eleqtrogadacemis xazis dadgma, warmoadgens saqarTveloSi hidroenergetikuli mSeneblobebisaTvis gankuTvnili ubnebis investorebisaTvis mimzedvelobis aucilebel pirobas. 2008 wlis oqtomberSi igegmeba pirvel samSeneblo ubnebze saerTaSoriso tenderis Catareba. saqarTvelos energetikis saministro da misi mrCevlebi darwmunebulni arian, rom tenderSi monawileobas miiRebs im kandidatTa sakmarisi raodenoba, romlebsac survili aqvT ganaxorcielon mSenebloba Sesabamis ubnebze.

imis daSvebiT, rom molaparakebebis procesi warmatebiT mimdinareobs da ar arsebobs Seferxebani mSeneblobis ganxircielebis gzaze, pirveli hiroeleqtrosadgurebi aSendeba 2014 – 2015 wlebisaTvis. SemoTavazebul ubnebs warmoadgenen oni (272 megavati), namaxvani (450 megavati), mtkvari (196 megavati) da zeda rioni (350 megavati). aRniSmuli sadgurebis eqsportirebadi simZlavre damokidebulia samamulo datvirTvasa da SekeTebuli hidro da termuli sadgurebidan damatebiT miwodebuli eleqtroenergiis raodenobaze.

rac Seexeba eleqtroenergiaze samamulo moTxovnas, savaraudoa rom moxdeba misi erTgvarovani yovelTviuri zrda, yovelwliurad 3%. danarT 4-is pirvel naxazze mocemulia 2013-2016 wlebSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportis jamuri potenciali, im pirobis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom TurqeTis mimarTulebiT gadamcemi xazis mzidi tevadoba Seadgens aranakleb 730 gigavats/saaTSi. Am prognozis Tanaxmad, TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis importis raodenoba gaizrdeba 2013 wlisaTvis 839 gigavatamde, maSin rodesac 2015 wlisaTvis, axali eleqtrosadgurebis eqspluotaciaSi srulad Sesvlis Semdeg, gadamcemi xazi SeiZleba daitvirTos 4102 gigavatamde. 2016 wels mosalodnelia vardna 4.058 gigavatiT (damatebiTi samamulo datvirTvis gamo). 2016 wlis Semdgom periodSi mosalodnelia, rom damatebiT hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mouwevT samamulo datvirTvis zrdis problemis gadalaxva, anu TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsporti Seadgens 4.001 gigavats weliwadSi. ar ganixileba saqarTvelos gavliT TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis miwodeba mezobeli saxelmwifoebidan, maSin rodesac gadamcemi xazi ar iqneba datvirTuli eqsportiT saqarTvelodan da samamulo energiis nakedebiT (e.i. ianvari-marti da agvisto-dekemberis periodi).

danarT 4-is meore naxazze mocemulia mTavari mosazrebani proeqtis Rirebulebis Sesaxeb. rac Seexeba proeqtis dafinansebas, navareudevia rom, ZiriTadi proeqtis saerTo Rirebuleba dafinansdeba sesxis meSveobiT, romlis saprocento ganakveTi mSeneblobis mimdinareobis procesSi daifareba damproeqtebeli kompaniis aqciebiT. gansakuTrebiT unda aRiniSnos, rom vidre ar ganisazRvreba sesxis struqtura da dafinansebis pirobebi, moyvanili cifrebis buneba ufro ganmartebiTia amgvarad, ar asaxavs SeTanxmebebs romelTa SemoTavazeba SeuZliaT sesxis gamcemebs.

rac Seexeba proeqtis Semosavlebs, savaraudoa, rom Tanabrad ganawilebuli transmisiis meSveobiT SesaZlebelia proeqtis Rirebulebis kompensireba, TurqeTis mimarTulebiT dadgmuli mudmivi denis eleqtrogadamcemi xazis Rirebulebis CaTvliT. ganixileba ori varianti:

- mSeneblobasTan dakavSirebuli xarjebi, saamortizacio xarjebis, gadasaxadebis, saprocento da sxva, maregulireblis mier damtkicebuli xarjebis CaTvliT.

- eqspluotaciis pirveli cxra wlis manZilze tarifi 10 evro megavatze da Semdgom 5 evro megavatze (tarifis grafiki datvirTvis gaTvaliswinebiT).

Rirebulebis gamoTvlebidan gamomdinare, tarifis qveda zRvaris dadgenisas gasaTvaliswinebelia is faqtori, rom arasruli datvirTvisas imatebs xarjebi eleqtrienergiis gadamcem xazebze. es problema aqtualuri iqneba eqspluotaciis pirvel wlebSi, gadamcemi xazebis dabali datvirTvisas. meores mxriv, Rirebulebaze dafuZvnebul tarifs gaaCnia is upiratesoba rom SesaZlebeli xdeba gverdi avuaroT damatebiT amortizaciul daricxvebTan dakavSirebul problemebs, romlebic warmoiqmneba sesxis saprocento ganakveTis gadaxdis propcesSi (manam sanam, gadaxdili Tanxa ar gadaaWarbebs amortizaciul Tanxas). datvirTvis tarifis grafiki asaxavs saerTo sawarmoo xarjebs procentis gadaxdis procesSi pirveli wlebis mimdinareobisas; igi xsnis sirTuleebs tarifis dadgenisas da xels uwyobs mogebis investirebuli kapitalis warmoqmnas, rac aucilebelia saSualo Rirebulebis gacocxlebisaTvis.

miuxedavad imisa, rom proeqts SeuZlia miiRod sesxi qvanaxSirisaTvis, amgvari ze-Semosavlebi ar aris gaTvaliswinebuli ZiriTadi scenariT.

proeqtis kapitalis uzrunvelyofili saSualo Rirebulebani (WACC) gamoiyeneba gamoiyeneba produqciis erTeulze gasaSualebuli xarjebis (LUC), anu proeqtis sicocxlisunarianobis saSualo Rirebulebis gaTvlisaTvis (evro gadacemul megavatze). naTelia, rom Tu gadacemis wliuri tarifi efuZvneba gaTvlil Rirebulebas, proeqtis Semosavlis Siga koeficienti (IRR) miaxloebuli iqneba proeqtis kapitalis uzrunvelyofil saSualo RirebulebasTan. analogiurad, proeqtis Semosavlis Siga koeficienti iqneba ufro meti vidre proeqtis kapitalis uzrunvelyofili saSualo Rirebuleba, im SemTxvevaSi Tu pirobiTi daricxvebis saSualo tarifi aRemateba produqciis erTeulze gasaSualebuli xarjebs.

ZiriTadi scenaris Tanaxmad, finansuri Sedegebi Semdegnairad gamoiyureba:

- produqciis erTeulze gasaSualebuli xarjebi Seadgens 5.07 evro/megavati.

- datvirTvebis tarifis grafikis Tanaxmad, proeqtis Semosavlis Siga koeficienti muSaobs 9.63% da SesaZlebelia damatebiT amortizaciul daricxvebTan dakavSirebuli problemebis warmoqmna muSaobis pirveli wlis ganmavlobaSi.

- Rirebulebis tarifis grafikis Tanaxmad, proeqtis Semosavlis Siga koeficienti tolia 4.92% da ar aris mosalodneli damatebiT amortizaciul daricxvebTan

dakavSirebuli problemebis warmoqmna muSaobis pirveli wlis ganmavlobaSi.

9. statistikuri mgrZnobiarobis analizi

proeqtis ZiriTadi finansuri riskebi Semdegia:

- proeqtSi investiciebis Rirebuleba, romelic aRematebamosalodnel Rirebulebas.

- Seferxeba dagegmili hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobasa da gaSvebaSi, rac gamoiwvevs gadamcemi xazebis arasrul datvirTvas eqspluotaciis pirvel wlebSi.

- xazebis gadatvirTva datvirTvis samamulo nakadebis gauTvaliswinebeli zrdis SemTxvevaSi.

- saqarTvelos hidroenergetikuli resursebis gamouyenloba.

Rirebulebis gadaxarjva

savaroudoa, rom EUR-datvirTvebi fiqsirebulia ZiriTadi mosalodneli xarjebis doneze (220 milioni evro), Rirebulebis nebismier gadaxarjvas Tan sdevs aqciebis damatebiTi Senatani (aRniSnuli ar aris damokidebuli Tu ra arCevans gaakeTebs damproeqtebeli kompania adgilobriv bazarze).

im SemTxvevaSi Tu ZiriTadi xarjebi 20% gadaaWarbebs mosalodnels, produqciis erTeulze gasaSualebuli xarjebi (LUC) gaizrdeba 7.00 evro/megavatamde da proeqti CaiSleba datvirTvis tarifis grafikTan erTad (proeqtis Semosavlis Siga koeficienti = 7% > 6.28 = proeqtis kapitalis saSualo Rirebuleba (WACC)). miuxedavad amisa muSaobis pirveli wlis ganmavlobaSi damproeqtebeli kompania SeiZleba Seejaxos likvidurobis problemas, romlisagan Tavis arideba SeiZleba Rirebulebis tarifis reJimis pirobebSi, miiRebs ra 7.92 evro/megavatis tol tarifis saSualo Semosavals, romlis Siga koeficienti gautoldeba 8.8%.

ZiriTdi xarjebis 30% zrdis SemTxvevaSi produqciis erTeulze gasaSualebuli xarjebi (LUC) gaizrdeba 7.71 evro/megavatamde, amrigad datvirTvis tarifis grafikis moqmedebis reJimis SemTxvevaSi, finansuri TvalsazrisiT proeqti ar iqneba

sicocxlisunariani (proeqtis Semosavlis Siga koeficienti = 5.88% < 6.71 = proeqtis kapitalis saSualo Rirebuleba (WACC)). finansuri sicocxlisunarianobis miRweva SesaZlebelia Rirebulebis tarifis grafikis moqmedebis reJimis SemTxvevaSi, romelic warmoqmnis tarifis saSualo Semosavals 9.25 evro/megavatis odenobiT, Siga koeficientiT 9.90%.

Rirebulebis gadaxarjva 20% 30%kapitalis saSualo Rirebuleba 6.28% 6.71%produqciis erTeulze gasaSualebuli xarjebi 6.87 7.71Semosavlis Siga koeficienti datvirTvis tarifis grafikTan erTad

7.00% 5.88%

likvidurobis problema ki KiRirebulebis proeqtis saSualo Semosavali (evro/megavati)

8.80 9.90

likvidurobis problema ara ara

sakamaToa is mosazreba, rom 30%-mde gadaxerjva SeiZleba STanTqmul iqnes gadacemaTa xazis ufro maRali datvirTvis meSveobiT, eleqtroenergiis eqsportis rentabelobis seriozuli safrTxis qveS dayenebis gareSe.

hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis gadavadeba

hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis gadavadeba (weliwadi)

1 2 3

kapitalis saSualo Rirebuleba 4.81% 4.81% 4.81%produqciis erTeulze gasaSualebuli xarjebi

5.32 5.59 5.87

Semosavlis Siga koeficienti datvirTvis tarifis grafikTan erTad

8.27% 7.11% 6.09%

damatebiT saamortizacio xarjebTan dakavSirebuli grZelvadiani problemebi

ki ki ki

rogorc zemoTmoyvanili cxrilidan Cans, hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis gadavadeba sam wlamde, ar gamoiwvevs proeqtis finansuri sicocxlisunarianobis safrTxis qveS dayenebas,

savaraudo datvirvis tarifis grafikis moqmedebis pirobebSi, Tumca SesaZlebelia damproeqtebeli kompania Seejaxos likvidurobis seriozul problemebs, eqspluotaciis pirvel wlebSi. Rirebulebistarifis reJimi moxsnis damatebiT saamortizacio xarjebTan dakavSirebul problemebs, eleqtrosadgurebis eqspluotaciaSi gaSvebamde (gadavadebiT), gadamcem xazebze sakmaod maRali datvirTvis xarjze.

hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis mniSvnelovani gadavadebisSemTxvevaSi, arsebobs garRvevis Sevsebis SesaZlebloba saqarTveloSi Termogeneraciis da/an mezobel qveynebSi eleqtroenergiis Sesyidvis xarjze, im pirobiT rom aRniSnuli alternatiuri wyaroebi konkurentunarianni arian TurqeTis bazarze.

xazebis gadatvirTva

zamTris periodSi xazebis gadatvirTva ver gamoiwvevs problemas proeqtis ekonomiuri nawilisaTvis, miuxedavad imisa rom, am periodSia dagegmili xazis sruli gamoyeneba eleqtroenergiis eqsportisaTvis. rac Seexeba zafxulis periods, mcirdeba eleqtroenergiis eqsportis SesaZlebloba, radganac eleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobisaTvis didi mniSvneloba aqvs eqspertze gadacemis tevadobasTan garantirebul miwvdomadobas.

hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSenebloba

hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobisaTvis aucilebelia rentabeloba; maRali danaxarjebis pirobebSi ver moxdeba SemoTavazebuli samSeneblo ubnebis amoqmedeba. cxadia, axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebi moitanen mogebas, magram ar SeiZleba im riskis gamoricxva, rom aRniSnuli samSeleblo ubnebi ar gaamarTleben ekonomiur molodins. aseve SesaZlebelia imis daSvebac rom, ar moxdeba ekonomiurad sicocxlisunariani samSeneblo ubnebis ganaSenianeba politikuri riskebis gamo. SeuZlebelia srulad davizRvioT Tavi amgvari riskebidan.

TurqeTs gaaCnia saSualeba qarTuli eleqtroenergiis eqsportis SemTxvevaSi, an mis gareSe miiRos eleqtroenergia mezobeli saxelmwifoebidan, risi ganxorcielebis SesaZleblobas gaaadvilebda saqarTvelos gadamcemi xazi. mis gankargulebaSi

arsebuli bunebrivi resursebidan gamomdinare, azerbaijans gaaCnia saSualeba aaSenos axali Tboeleqtrosadgurebi, romelTa Warbi saeqsporto eleqtroenergiis raodenoba 2015 wlisaTvis, sul cota weliwadSi 3.05 gigavats miaRwevs. anu eleqtroenergiis eqsporti azerbaijanidan TurqeTSi Sesabamisi iqneba saqarTvelodan TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportisa. naTelia rom, azerbaijanis mier am saSualebis gamoyeneba damokidebuli iqneba Turqul da azerbaijanul bazrebze bunebrivi airisa da eleqtroenergiis momaval fasebze (azerbaijans gaaCnia arCevani bunebrivi airis eqsportsa da mis safuZvelze miRebuli eleqtroenergiis eqsports Soris). igive SeiZleba iTqvas Warbi eleqtroenergiis eqsportze somxeTidan, rac umetis wilad damokidebuli iqneba iranidan da/an ruseTidan bunebrivi airis importis arsebobasa da Rirebulebaze. saqarTvelos gadamcemi xazis gamoyenebiT eleqtroenergiiT regionaluri vaWrobis ganxorcielebis SesaZlebloba, uTuod aniWebs proeqts garkveul upiratesobebs, Tumca unda iTqvas, rom proeqti mainc ar aris dazRveuli xazis argamoyenebis riskisagan.

karbokreditebi vinaidan ar arsebobs adgilze gamocdili meTodika, romelic saSualebas mogvcemda gvemsjela CO2 – is emisiis Semcirebaze, rac waadgeboda gadamcemi xazis ekonomiurobas, Znelia ganisazRvros misaRebia Tu ara, karbokreditebi proeqtisaTvis. unda aRiniSnos, rom emisiis gamoyeneba mniSvnelovnad gaaumjobesebda proeqtis finansur mxares. Ggamomdinare sxvaobis sidididan 269 kilogrami CO2, saqarTvelodan TurqeTSi eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergiis yovel megavatze (saSualod yovelwliurad 1.06 milioni tona CO2 weliwadSi), da imis gaTvaliswinebiT rom emisiis Semcirebis Rirebuleba Seadgens 5 evro/tonas, ZiriTadi scenaris Tanaxmad, karbokriditebiT miRebuli Semosavali Seadgens 70.3 milion evros. emisiis Semcirebis Rirebulebis 10 evro/tonamde gazrdis SemTxvevaSi, Semosavlebi SeRavaTebis gaTvaliswinebiT Seadgens 140.6 milion evros, rac proeqtis saorientacio Rirebulebis 64% Seadgens.

xazis gamoyenebis maRali xarisxi

ZiriTadi scenaris Tanaxmad, xazis gamoyenebis xarisxi Sefasebulia rogorc zomieri (daaxloebiT 44% weliwadSi). cxadia rom, zamTris periodSi datvirTvis damatebiTi nakadebi gaaumjobesebs proeqtis

rentabelobas. magaliTad, weliwadSi damatebiT 500 gigavati eleqtroenergiis TurqeTSi eqsportis SemTxvevaSi, xarjebi erTeul produqciaze Semcirdeba 5.07 evro/megavatidan 4.42evro/megavatamde da datvirTvis tarifis grafikis Tanaxmad, Semosavlis Siga koeficienti gaizrdeba 11.68%-mde, likvidurobis problemis warmoqmnis gareSe.

eleqtroenergiis eqsportis cvalebadoba

vinaidan eleqtrosadgurebis simZlavre albaTuria, TurqeTSi eqsportisaTvis arsebuli energia SeiZleba ar Seesabamebodes mosalodnel raodenobas, rac gavlenas moaxdens eleqtroenergiis gadacemis Rirebulebaze. saimedoobisaTvis davuSvaT, rom TurqeTSi eqsportisaTvis arsebuli energis sidide normaluradaa ganawilebuli cvalebadobis koeficientiT 15%. qvemoTmoyvanil naxazze naCvenebia produqciis erTeulze gaweuli xarjebis Semajamebeli kumulatiuri albaToba/ganawileba 1500 gameorebidan gamomdinare. Moyvanili grafikidan gamomdinare Seizleba iTqvas, rom produqciis erTeulze gaweuli xarjebisaTvis arsebobs 71% albaToba, rom isini 5.5 evro/megavatze mcire iqneba. analogiurad SeiZleba iTqvas rom, produqciis erTeulze gaweuli xarjebis sididis 7.50 evro/megavatamde an meti zrdis albaToba 2%-ze naklebia.

10. institucionaluri RonisZiebebi

saqarTveloSi proeqtis ganviTarebisa da realizaciis institucionaluri RonisZiebani imyofeba saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier ganxilvis stadiaSi. maT Sesaxeb saubari Sedgeba sesxis gamcemebTan Sexvedris dros.

Cumulative Probability Curve LUC

0,00%

20,00%

40,00%

60,00%

80,00%

100,00%

120,00%

3,51 4,17 4,83 5,49 6,14 6,80 7,46 8,12 8,78 9,44 10,10

EUR/MWh

danarTi 1

sxva Setyobinebani

1.1 saerTo

proeqtis idea warmoadgens saqarTvelos/regionaluri gadacemaTa sistemis rig ganxilvaTa sagans:

- korporacia kuljianis mier (USTDA dafinansebiT) Catarebuli, saqarTvelos maRali Zabvis gadamcemi xazebis proeqtis ekonomiuri mizanSewonilobis analizi;

- fixtneris mier (KfW dafinansebiT) Sedgenili, kavkasiis qveynebisaTvis regionaluri energogadacemis gafarToebis gegma;

- ECON –is mier Sedgenili (saqarTvelos energetikis saministros mier miniWebuli uflebamosilebis safuZvelze), eqsportis potenciuri bazrebi saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiisaTvis;

- saqarTvelos gadacemaTa sistemebis dagegmarebis centris mier Sedgenili da USAID/USEA dafinansebuli azerbaijanidan TurqeTSi energotranzitis unaris analizi;

- ruseTidan/somxeTidan TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis tranziti (masala momzadebulia saqarTvelos saxelmwifo energosistemis specialistTa jgufis mier).

kuljianis, fixtnerisa da ECON –is mier Catarebuli kvlevebi qvemoT ganixileba, xolo GSE/GTU samuSao moyvanilia danarT 6-Si –datvirTvaTa nakadebi da dinamiuri gamokvlevebi.

1.2 kuljianis mier Sesrulebuli samuSao

1.2.1 saerTo

proeqti warmoadgens korporacia kuljianis mier (USTDA dafinansebiT) Catarebuli, teqnikur – ekonomiuri kvlevis sagans romelic 2007 wlis dekemberSi dasrulda. moxda proeqtis saqarTvelos energetikis saministros maRali Zabvis qselSi realizaciis mizanSewonilobis aRiareba da gacxadeba imisa rom, sakontraqto safuZvelze qselis aucilebeli datvirTvis

SesaZleblobis uzrunvelyofisa da erT sul mosaxleze Rirebulebis kontrolis misaRebi donis gaTvaliswinebiT, proeqti SeiZleba CaiTvalos ekonomiurad da finansurad sicocxlisunarianad.

1.2.2 mosazrebebi da daskvnebi

winamdebare kvleva gulisxmobs Semdegs:

- kontraqtis damtkicebis Semdeg 36 Tviani grafiki;- calke kontraqti TurqeTTan;- 311 milioni aSS dolaris toli Rirebuleba;- 8.58 aSS dolari/megavatis toli wliuri Semosavlebis

grafiki kapitalis 100% wminda Rirebulebis SemTxvevaSi da 5.42 aSS dolari/megavati valis 70% udanakargo dafinansebisas, 15% Semosavlis Sida koeficientiT.

finansuri analizis mosazrebebi Seicavs:

- 6.4% saprocento koeficients;- 30 wlian sicocxlisunarianobas;- sahaero xazebis mSeneblobis dasruleba moxdeba 2012 wels,

xolo maRali Zabvis mudmivi denis sadguri eqspluotaciaSi Seva 2015 wlisaTvis;

- cveTa 12 wlis Semdeg;- maRali Zabvis xazze datvirTvis koeficienti zafxulSi 55%

da zamTarSi 90% meti;- datvirtvebis nakadi Seicavs generaciis axali wyaroebs

saqarTveloSi: xudoni (600 megavati) baTumis bunebrivi airis turbinebi (80 megavati) namaxvanis kaskadi (250 megavati) somxeTis 400 kilovoltiani xazi (240 megavati)

1.2.3 saorientacio Rirebuleba

qvemoTmoyvanil cxrilSi naCvenebia Semdegi saorientacio Rirebuleba:

milioni ASS dolari

gardabani - axalcixis 500 kilovoltiani sahaero xazi

93.2

zestafoni - axalcixis 500 kilovoltiani sahaero xazi

31.5

axalcixe – TurqeTis sazRvris 400 kolovoltiani sahaero xazi

17.5

axalcixis 500 kilovoltiani qvesadguri 20.0axalcixis 400 kilovoltiani qvesadguri 8.5axalcixe 500/400 kilovolti, 600 megavati, mudmivi denis marali Zabvis xazis makonvertirebeli sadguri

100.0

gardabnis 500 kilovoltiani qvesadguris gafarToeba

3.0

zestafonis 500 kilovoltiani qvesadguris gafarToeba/reorganizacia

9.0

gauTvaliswinebeli xarjebi, 10% 28.3jami 311.0

cxrili 1-1: kuljianis mier warmodgenili saorientacio Rirebuleba

1.2.3 finansuri analizi

finansuri analizisaTvis kuljianis mier moxda 2 scenaris ganxilva:

- scenari 1: kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis 100% dafinanseba- scenari 2: valebis 70% dafinanseba.

Semdeg moxda anuitetebis (periodulad gadasaxdeli Senatanebi) tarifebis gaTvla, rogorc minimaluri tarifebisa, romlebic proeqtis Tanaxmad, wlebis ganmavlobaSi unda gadaixados momavalma momxmarebelma, imisaTvis rom moxdes “aucilebeli Semosavlis” arsebobis uzrunvelyofa da gamoiricxos wamgebianoba. TiToeuli scenarisaTvis Sesrulda 2 variantis analizi:

varianti a – mudmivi denis maRali Zabvis xazi, TurqeTTan kavSiris CaTvliT

varianti b - mudmivi denis maRali Zabvis xazi, TurqeTTan kavSiris gareSe

winamdebare angariSis amocanidan gamomdinare moxdeba varianti a-s ganxilva.

damatebiTi saamortizacio anaricxebis analizis Sedegebi (kuljiani) moyvanilia cxril 3-2-Si:

scenari 1a scenari 1banuitetis tarifi

(aSS dolari/megavati)

8.58 5.42

cxrili 1-2: kuljianis mier gamoTvlili tarifi

aRniSnul angariSSi igulisxmeba, rom proeqtis Semosavlis Siga koeficienti tolia, nulTan gatolebuli damatebiTi saamortizacio anaricxebis wminda arsebuli Rirebulebis diskauntis koeficientisa, kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis 100% dafinansebis pirobebSi. amitom savaraudoa, rom tarifi scenari 1b-saTvis – “waugebeli” damatebiTi saamortizacio anaricxebisaTvis, anu wminda arsebuli Rirebulebis nulTan gatolebuli Semosavlis dabali Siga koeficientisaTvis, Seadgens 15%. kuljianis yvela SemTxvevisaTvis aucilebeli tarifi Seadgens 8.58 aSS dolari/megavatsaaTze.

1.2.4 garemoze gavlenis Sefaseba

kuljianis kvlevaSi, romelic exeba SemoTavazebuli proeqtisgaremoze gavlenis winaswar Sefasebas naTqvamia:

“mTlianobaSi SeiZleba iTqvas, rom raime mniSvnelovan winaaRmdegobebs SemoTavazebuli gadamcemi xazebis mSeneblobisa da axalcixis qvesadguris proeqtis realizaciisaTvis, garemoze zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT adgili ara aqvs.”

vinaidan Sefaseba ar moicavs calkeul, adre naxseneb samSeneblo ubnebs, sasurvelia Catardes garemoze zemoqmedebis detaluri analizi proeqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli samuSaoebis dawyebamde. rogorc aRiniSna, Sefasebis meTodologia Seesabameba saqarTvelos garemos dacvis saministros instruqciebs (Tumca isini ar exeba garemoze zemoqmedebis Sefasebis meTodologias) da msoflio bankis oqmebs. gansaxilveli dasaTaureba moicavs:

_ fizikuri zemoqmedeba

miwis gamoyeneba

wylis xariosxi

haeris xarisxi

flora

fauna

- socialur ekonomiuri zemoqmedeba

transportis moZraoba

xmauri

jandacva

binaTmSenebloba da komunaluri nagebobani

kulturuli memkvidreoba/arqeologia

warmodgenilia zogierTi winaswari Sedegi, romelic gulisxmobs proeqtis umniSvnelo da advilad gadasawyvet zemoqmedebas.

garda imisa rom, moxda garemos Sesaxeb saqarTvelos mTavrobis instruqciebis Targmna, warmodgenilia garemoze zemoqmedebis Sefasebis gegma.

1.3 fixtneris kvleva

1.3.1 saerTo

2007 wlis noemberSi fixtnerma warmoadgina saboloo angariSi “kavkasiis qveynebisaTvis regionaluri energogadacemis xazebis gafarToebis gegma”. aRniSnuli angariSi ganixilavs or axal saerTaSoriso xazs saqarTvelosa da somxeTs (proeqti 1) da saqarTvelosa da TurqeTs (proeqti 2) Soris. angariSSi mocemulia daskvna imis Sesaxeb, rom proeqtebis realizebiT saqarTvelo miiRebs Semosavals da amasTan, gaxdeba mezobeli qveynebis ekonomiuri miRwevebis Tanamonawile – TurqeTis, iranis, azerbaijanisa da ruseTis. proeqtis ganxorcielebiT miRebuli sxva mosalodneli upiratesobebi Seicavs:

- energomomaragebis xarisxis gaumjobesoba, rogorc mrewvelobaSi sazRvargareTis investiciebis mizidvis sakvanZo faqtori;

- UCTE – s mier SemuSavebul standartebTan Sesabamisi, energosistemis eqspluotaciis praqtikis srulyofa da amiT eleqtroenergiiT regionTaSorisi gacvlis SesaZleblobis Seqmna;

- konkurentunariani regionaluri energobazris mimarTulebiT Semdgomi nabijebisaTvis aucilebeli, winaswari, fizikurad saWiro moTxovnebisa da saorganizacio bazis Seqmna;

- saqarTveloSi regionaluri energiis/eleqtrodenis centris Seqmna.

zemoTnaxseneb angariSSi naTqvamia, rom orive proeqtis realizaciis saboloo vadaa 2015 weli.

1.3.2 teqnikuri gadawyvetis kriteriumebi

proeqti 2-saTvis (TurqeTis xazi) ganixileboda energosistemebs Soris fizikuri dakavSirebis 6 varianti. TiToeli varianti iqna Sefasebuli teqnikuri TvalsazrisiT mravaljeradi Sewonili analizis meTodis gamoyenebiT:

kriteriumebi statistikurad mocemuli sididemaqsimaluri saeqsporto

tevadoba20%

investirebis Rirebuleba 25%TurqeTSi eqsportis saimecoba 10%

mSeneblobis vada 5%regionaluri energogadacemis

gegmis gamoyenebadoba15%

erovnuli miwodebis saimedoba 10%SeTanxmebaTa scenarebis

moqniloba15%

cxrili 1-3: fixtneris teqnikuri gadawyvetis kriteriumebi

variantebis savaraudo Rirebuleba varirebs 72 milioni evrodan (varianti 1) 331 milion evromde (varianti 5).

miuxedavad imisa rom, varianti 5 yvelaze ZviradRirebulia, analizis Sedegebis Tanaxmad, aRniSnuli varianti, teqnikuri TvalsazrisiT warmoadgens yvelaze optimalur gadawyvetilebas, radganac xels uwyobs energomomaragebis saimedobis mniSvnelovan zrdas, aseve eqsportsa da Sinagani amocanebis gadawyvetas. varianti 5 fixtneris mier ganixileboda ekonomiuri da finansuri Tvalsazrisebidan.

1.3.3 moRvaweobis sferoebi

varianti 5-saTvis ganixileba Semdegi moRvaweobis sfaroebi:

- gardabani – axalcixes axali 500 kilovoltiani xazi- zestafoni – axalcixes axali 500 kilovoltiani xazi- enguri – axalcixes axali 500 kilovoltiani xazi- axalcixes axali 500/400 kilovoltiani sadguri- axalcixe – borCxas axali 400 kilovoltiani xazi

aRsaniSnavia, rom es varianti analogiuria mimdinare proeqtis SemoTavazebisa, enguri - axalcixis damatebiTi xazis garda.

1.3.4 finansuri analizi

finansuri analizisaTvis gamoiTqva Semdegi mosazrebebi:

- ganixileba mxolod eqsportis SesaZlebloba- wliuri xarjebi investiciis 1.5% Seadgens- ar aqvs adgili infliacias- sicocxlisunarianobis 30 weli- SeRavaTis koeficienti 8%- Semosavlis gadasaxadi 20%- datvirTvis koeficienti 0.62- moTxovnis zrda weliwadSi 3%- ganixileba TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsporti, e.i. ar

arsebobs tranzitis analizi- procentis koeficienti 6.4%- saqarTvelos SeuZlia 3 Tvis ganmavlobaSi ganaxorcielos

0.815 t.vatsaaTi raodenobis eqsporti, xolo 5 Tvis ganmavlobaSi 1.358 t.vatsaaTi– sa.

proeqti iTvleba ekonomiurad dasabuTebulad, Tu igi uzrunvelyofs investors adeqvaturi SemosavliT, mocemuli tarifis pirobebSi. mocemuli tarifis sidede unda iyos Sesatyvisi produqciis erTeulze gaRebuli finansurad gawonasworebuli xarjebisa, romlebic gamoiTvleba rogorc yovel gadacemul kilovatsaaTze gaweuli wliuri xarji. damatebiTi saamortizacio anaricxebi gamoiyeneba sicocxlisunarianobis 30 wliani periodis ganmavlobaSi adeqvaturi likvidurobis uzrunvelsayofad.

xarjebis gadanawilebis mizniT, proeqti iyofa komponentebad Siga moxmarebisa da saeqsporto energiisaTvis (xazebi axalcixisaken gardabnidan, zestafonidan da enguridan) da komponentebad mxolod eqsportisaTvis (mudmivi denis maRali Zabvis sadguri da 400 kilovoltiani xazi borCxamde). xarjebis gadanawilebisaTvis ganixileba sami scenari:

- scenari 1: ar arsebobs xarjebis gadanawileba energiis samamulo da saeqsporto komponentebs Soris;

- scenari 2: xarjebis yvela komponenti gadanawilebulia samamulo moxmarebasa eqsports Soris;

- scenari 3: xarjebi gadanawilebulia Siga moxmarebisa da saeqsporto komponentebs Soris.

xarjebis marezultirebebeli gamoTvla produqciis erTeulze 3 Tviani eqsportis ganmavlobaSi:

S1 S2 S3

saerTo Siga eqspor. Siga eqspor.proeqtis wliuri xarji

(milioni evro)33.6 21.5 12.1 13.5 20.2

t.vatsaaTi 1.685 0.87 0.815 0.87 0.815xarjebi produqciis

erTeulze (evrocenti/kilovatsaaTze)

2.0 2.48 1.48 1.55 2.48

damatebiTi saamortizacio anaricxebis Semdgomi analizi gvaCvenebs, rom produqciis erTeulze gaweuli xarjebis toli tarifebis pirobebSi, romlebic zemoT iqna gamoTvlili, Semosavlis Sida koeficienti (7.4 – 7.8%) da ROE gadasaxadis gadaxdis Semdeg (6. 2 –6.7%) ar Seesabameba kerZo investorTa molodinebs, amitom proeqtisaTvis ekonomiuri mizanSewonilobis miniWebis mizniT, navaraudevia tarifis zrda 2.15 centamde samamulo eleqtroenergiisaTvis da 3.44 centamde eqsportisaTvis. – scenari 6 angariSSi. am SemTxvevaSi Semosavlis Sida koeficienti gaizrdeba 11%, xolo ROE gadasaxadis gadaxdis Semdeg – 10.7%.

1.3.5 ekonomiuri analizi

ekonomiuri analizi koncentrirdeba kvlevaSi aRweril ZiriTad mogebaze:

- saqarTvelos energogadacemaTa sistemis infrastruqturis srulyofa, da

- TurqeTSi eqsportisaTvis infrastruqturis uzrunvelyofa.

gamoTvlebi Sesrulebulia Seferxebebis (miuwodebeli eleqtroenergiis Semcireba), teqnikuri danakargebis Semcirebisa da molaparakebis sargeblis gauTvaliswineblad. Seferxebebisa da teqnikuri danakargebis SemcirebisaTvis gamoTvlilia SemdegimaCveneblebi:

xarji 1 kilovatze (evro)

milioni evro weliwadSi

Seferxebebis acileba 0.4 5.9danakargebis Semcireba

0.02 2.3

cxrili 1-5: Seferxebebisa da teqnikuri danakargebis SemcirebiT miRebuli sargebeli, fixtneri.

unda aRiniSnos, rom eleqtroenergiis Seferxebebis ekonomiuri Rirebuleba – 0.4 evro kilovatsaaTze, efuZvneba USAID – is gamokvlevas – “saqarTvelos energetikuli seqtoris energobalansi”, 2006w., agvisto.

saqarTvelos ekonomikisaTvis savaWro mogeba gamoTvlilia Semdegi daSvebebiT:

- eqsporti Seadgens weliwadSi 0.815 t.vatsaaTi;- sabuTumo tarifi TurqeTSi tolia 0.0563 evro kilovatsaaTze;- generaciis Rirebuleba saqarTveloSi Seadgens 0.02 evros

kolovatsaaTze.

Semdegi cxrili axdens samive SemTxvevis Sedegebis rezumirebas:

SemTxveva 1 SemTxveva 2 SemTxveva 3eqsportis tarifi

(evro/kilovatsaaTze)0.0563 0.048 0.0563

saeqsporto energia (t.vatsaaTi)

0.815 0.815 0.556

wliuri mogeba (milioni evro)

29.6 20.2 20.2

wiliwadSi proeqtis xarjebis gadanawileba

(milioni evro)20.2 20.2 20.2

wliuri mogeba vaWrobidan (milioni evro)

9.4 0 0

cxrili 1-6: fixtneri, savaWro mogeba

Sedegebma gvaCvenes, rom mininalurad aucilebeli tarifi TurqeTis sazRvarze proeqtis saeqsporto komponents asanazRaureblad Seadgens 4.8 evrocents kilovatsaaTze, xolo eqsportis minimaluri saerTo moculoba 5.63 evrocentisavis kilovatsaaTze Seadgens (“waugebeli varianti”) 0.556 t.vatsaaTi.

1.4 ECON – is mier Catarebuli kvleva

ECON – is kvleva Catarda saqarTvelos energetikis saministros davalebiT, kavkasiis regionSi eleqtroenergiis savaWro bazrebis analizis mizniT. pirveli angariSi moicavs somxeTis, azerbaijanis, iranis, ruseTisa da TurqeTis energetikuli seqtorebis saerTo mimoxilvas, aRniSnul bazrebze saqarTvelos axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mier warmoebuli eleqtroenergiis eqsportis ekonomikuri mizanSewonilobis winaswari daskvnebis gaTvaliswinebiT. meore angariSi Seicavs Turquli da azerbaijanuli seqtorebis ufro dawvrilebiT analizsa da msjelobas azerbaijanidan TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis tranzitisa da saqarTvelodan eqsportis Sesaxeb. SesaZlebelia movaxdinoT angariSSi moyvanili daskvnebis Semdegnairi Sejameba:

- ruseTi: miuxedavad regionSi arsebuli sezonuri moTxovnisa, mis grZelvadian mizans warmoadgens eqsporti TurqeTsa da sxva qveynebSi. Amitom ar Rirs misi rogorc seriozuli saeqsporto bazris ganxilva. da mainc, Tu ruseTs surs ganaxorcielos eqsporti TurqeTSi, maSin saqarTvelos gavliT tranziti mimzidveli gzaa.

- somxeTi: ar ganixileba rogorc seriozuli saeqsporto bazari qarTuli eleqtroenergiisaTvis, samrewvelo simZlavreebis siWarbis, bunebriv airze dabali fasebisa da birTvuli reaqtoris Secvlis gegmis arsebobis gamo. Tumca, iseve rogorc ruseTis SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba ganxorcieldes Warbi eleqtreneriis eqsporti TurqeTSi saqarTvelos gavliT.

- irani: potenciurad igi warmoadgens zafxulis bazars saqarTvelos eleqtroenergiisaTvis, romlis gadacemac SeiZleba moxdes somxeTis gavliT. aRniSnulis ganxorcieleba SesaZlebelia somxeTis sistemis simZlavris dagegmili zrdis SemTxvevaSi.

- azerbaijani: energetikuli seqtori aris gardamaval periodSi; izrdeba generaciis tevadoba, maSin rodesac ecema moTxovna eleqtroenergiaze mzardi tarifebisa da gaumjobesebuli mricxvelebis montaJis gamo. mosalodnelia, rom azerbaijans eqneba saTadarigo tevadoba, romlis eqsportis ganxorcielebasac SeZlebs; amasTan analizi rTuldeba azerbaijanis bunebrivi airis wyaroebis momavali gamoyenebis gamo – adgilobrivi gaTboba/adgilobrivi generacia/saeqsporto potenciali da msoflios sabazro fasebiT bunebrivi airis eqsportis ar arsebobasTan dakavSirebuli xarjebi.

- TurqeTi: moTxovna izrdeba 6-7% da mosalodnelia datvirTvis zrda 2012 wlamde, radganac sistema cdilobs Seesabamebodes moTxovnis gamowvevebs. sabiTumo fasi Seadgens 11.6 aSS cents/kilovatsaaTze 2008 wlis aprilisaTvis. mosalodnelia, rom sabioTumo fasi maRali iqneba manam sanam mniSvnelovnad ar daiwevs bunebrivi airisa da navTobis fasebi da/an ar iqneba miRweuli lignitis qarxnebis mniSvnelovani ganviTareba. TurqeTis xelisuflebam gamoxata daintereseba saqarTvelosTan dakavSirebiT (bulgareTSi/UCTEmSenebare axali maRali Zabvis xazebTan damatebiT). ganxorcieldeba kontraqtebis ganxilva saxelmwifo organosTan, TETAS – Tan, an seqtorSi momuSave kerZo sabiTumo kompaniebTan.

1.5 komentarebi

kuljianisa da fixtneris kvlevebi exeba mxolod saqarTvelos saeqsporto potencials maT im nawilSi, romelic exeba datvirTvebis nakadebsa da finansur Sefasebebs. ECON - is angariSebi yuradRebas amaxvileben potenciur bazrebze saqarTvelos energosistemis gavliT eleqtroenergiis tranzitisa da saqarTveloda eleqtroenergiis eqsportisaTvis.

teqnikuri TvalsazrisiT kuljiani ganixilavs mxolod erT teqnikur gadawyvetas, maSin rodesac fixtneri ganixilavs da afasebs sxvadasxva teqnikur gadawyvetebs, axalcixeSi saqarTvelosa da TurqeTis damakavSirebel xazTan mimarTebaSi. fixtneris analizis Sedegs (optimalur gadawyvetas) warmoadgens varianti 5, romelic warmoadgens winamdebare proeqts da maRali Zabvis xazs engursa da axalcixes Soris. rogorc danarTi 6-dan Cans es damatebiTi xazi, romelic sasurvelia saimedobis gazrdis TvalsazrisiT, ar SeiZleba CaiTvalos aucileblad im damatebiTi generaciis gareSe, romelsac momavalSi uzrunvelyofs xudoni.

qvemoT moyvanil cxril 3-7-Si warmodgenilia mimdinare da adreuli kvlevebis parametrebis Sedareba:

kuljiani fixtneri komentarebisaprocento koeficienti

6.4% 6.4%

cveTa 12 weli 30 weliSeRavaTis koeficienti

9% 8%

eleqtroenergiis 4.6 1.358 t.vatsaaTi ix. SeniSvna

gadamcemi xazi qvemoTdatvirTvis koeficienti 74% 65%

kuljianTan ar ganixileba. ix. SeniSvna qvemoT

cxrili 1-7: parametrebis Sedarebis ganxilva

angariSebSi sxvadasxvagvaradaa Sefasebuli TurqeTis xazis gadacemis tevadoba. kuljiani varaudobs, rom xazi moaxdens tevadobis regulirebas zafxulSi datvirTvis koeficientis 55% mniSvnelobisas, xolo zamTarSi 90% mniSvnelobisas, 95% miwvdomadobiT. angariSidan ar Cans, Tu ras niSnavs es, SeiZleba vivaraudod Semdegi:

- xazis tevadoba = 720 megavati- datvirTvis koeficienti 55% (zafxuli) – 4 Tve- datvirTvis koeficienti 90% (zamTari) – 8 Tve- miwvdomadoba = 95%

energiis wliuri gadacema = 4.6 t.vatsaaTifixtnerma gaTvala eqsportis potenciali gamomdinare arsebuli da mSenebare hidroeleqtrosadgurebidan. fixtneris kvleva efuZvneba eleqtroenergiis nakadebis Seswavlas tranzitis gaTvalisWinebis gareSe. fixtnerma miiRo gamtarunarianobis ufro maRali maCvenebeli axalcixe – enguris damatebiTi xazis gamo.

aRniSnul angariSSi energogadacemis tevadoba efuZvnebadatvirTvis nakadis Seswavlas, romelic ganxorcielda saqarTvelos saxelmwifo energosistemis mier, rogorc eqsportisaTvis, aseve tranzitisaTvis. 400 kilovoltiani xazi daproeqtebuli iqneba maqsimaluri gadacemis gansaxorcieleblad (1 000 megavatamde).

Rogorc fixtnerma, aseve kuljianma gamoTvales produqciis erTeulze gasaSualoebuli xarjebi, romlebic aucilebelia investiciis aqcionerebisaTvis Semosavlis misaRebad – Semosavlis Siga koeficientis gamoyenebiT. Sedegebi Sejamebulia cxril 3-8 –Si.

kuljiani 1a

kuljiani 2a

fixtneri

fixtneri komentarebi

gamtarunarianoba (milioni evro)

242 242 303 303

kapitalis wminda 242 80 96 96kuljiani 2a: 70/30

Rirebuleba- kwR (milioni evro)

fixtneri: kwR=30%+WiP koeficienti es angariSi: kwR=%WiP

vali (milioni evro) _ 188 212 212saerTo finansebi (milioni evro)

242 268 308 308

Senatanebi (milioni evro)

_ 26 5 5

Semosavlis Siga koeficienti 15% * 7.8% 7.8%

*-sidide gaurkvevelia. ix. SeniSva 1.2.4

t. vatsaaTi

4.6** 4.6** 1.685 2.228

** kuljiani ar aris zustad dadgenili

eqsporti/samamulo/tranziti

eqsporti eqsportieqsporti+samamulo

eqsporti+samamulo

tarifi/ erT pro. xarj. (evrocenti kilovatze)

0.64 0.4 2.0 1.51

wliuri Semosavali (milioni evro)

29 18 34 34

Semosavali/finans.

0.122 0.069 0.109 0.109

= wliuri Semosavali/saerTo finansebi

cxrili 1-8: tarifis gaTvlebis Sedareba

gamoTvlili fardoba Semosavali/finansebi warmoadgens proeqtis ori Sefasebis Sedarebis mcdelobas.

fixtneris analizi efuZvneba eqsportis dabal moculobebsa da Semosavlis koeficientze mcire miwodebas. eleqtroenergiis arsebuli sidideebis pirobebSi, Semosavlis Siga koeficientis 10% meti sididis misaRwevad, saWiroa ufro maRali tarifi.

danarTi 2

TurqeTis energobazari

angariSis am nawilSi mocemulia TurqeTis bazris organizaciis, arsebuli da mosalodneli momaragebisa da eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis, aseve sabiTumo energobazarze savaraudo fasebis mimoxilva.

seqtoris organizacia

TurqeTis energoseqtori umetesad deregulirebulia (saxelmwifos kontrolidan gamoyvanili). 2001 wels miRebul iqna kanoni energobazris Sesaxeb, romelic iTvaliswinebs energobazris struqturul reformirebas. kanonis Tanaxmad, gaiyo TETAS -i –generacia, romelic warmoadgenda saxelmwifo sakuTrebas da gadamcemi kompania, sam, saxelmwifos kuTvnil kompaniad, romlebic pasuxismgeblebi arian:

- generaciaze, romlis marTvas axorcielebs TurqeTis energogeneraciis kompania (EUAS);

- gadacemaze, romlis marTvas axorcielebs TurqeTis energogadacemis kompania (TETAS);

- sabiTumo gayidvaze, romlis marTvas axorcieleben TurqeTis energovaWrobisa kontraqtebis kompaniebi (TETAS).

vidre pasuxismgebloba eleqtroenergiis gadacemaze srulad ar moeqceva TETAS – is kontrolis qveS (monopolia), savaraudoa rom kerZo seqtori did rols iTamaSebs eleqtroenergiis generaciaSi, vaWrobasa da distribuciaSi.

2001 wlis, axali kanoni eleqtroenergiis Sesaxeb, axdens energobazris maregulirebeli organos Seqmnis inicirebas (EMRA). aRniSnuli organos ZiriTad amocanebs warmoadgens energoseqtoris, bunebrivi airisa da navTobis bazrebis monitoringi, licenziebis gacemis, tarifebis dadgenisa da konkurenciis uzrunvelyofis CaTvliT, rac acilebs seqtors vertikalurad integrirebul saxelmwifo monopolias da saSualebas aZlevs kerZo seqtors monawileoba miiRos TurqeTis energetikul seqtorSi. seqtorSi saxelmwifo politikaze pasuxismgebelia energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministro.

naxazi 2.1: TurqeTis energoseqtoris struqtura

dResdReobiT TurqeTis energoseqtori imyofeba gardamaval stadiaSi srulad deregulirebuli bazris mimarT. EUAS – s jer kidev gaaCnia TurqeTis magenerirebeli tevadobis daaxloebiT 4%. seqtoris deregulirebis gegmis nawili iTvaliswinebs rom, verc

importi

EUAS (saxelmwifos kuTvnili generacia)

kerZo seqtoris mwarmoeblebi

sawarmoo eleqtroenergiis mwarmoeblebi

TETAS (saxelmwifos kuTvnili sabiTumo gayidvebi)

25 kerZo sabiTumo kompania

regulatori

TETAS (sistemis operatori da dabalansebuli

)

TEDAS (saxelmwifo distribucia)

kerZo seqtori –sadistribucio kompaniebi

erTi kerZo kompania ver SeZlebs akontrolos saerTo magenerirebeli tevadobis 20% meti. moxda EUAS – is Termo da hidro aqtivebis kompaniebis portfolioebad dayofa da ganxorcieldeba maTi privatizacia. EUAS – si Tavis portfolioSi, mxolod TurqeTis msxvil hidroeleqtrosadgurebs SeinarCunebs.

sabiTumo energobazeri nawilobrivaa deregulirebuli. EUAS – is mier uzrunvelyofili fasi regulirdeba da Semcirebisaken miiswrafis, radgan hidroaqtivebis umravlesoba gaufasurebulia dabali zRvruli xarjebis gamo. arsebobs konkurentunariani bazari kerZod nawarmoebi eleqtroenergiisaTvis, sadac TETAS – i awyobs auqcions Semdgomi dRis saaTobrivi magenerirebeli SesaZleblobisaTvis. EUAS – is mier regulirebuli Rirebuleba da saaTobrivad, konkurentulad SeTavazebuli kerZod nawarmoebi eleqtroenergia saSualovdeba da xdeba misi fasis warmoqmna, romliTac TETAS – i yidis eleqtroenergias TEDAS – ze da kerZo sadistribucio kompaniaze. mosalodnelia, rom sabiTumo bazari 2012 wlisaTvis srulad deregulirebuli iqneba, Tumca sruli deregulaciis vadebi ukanaskneli wlebis ganmavlobaSi ramdenjerme iqna gadaweuli.

eleqtroenergiis umetesi nawili generirdeba qveynis aRmosavleT nawilSi, maSin rodesac moTxovna, ZiriTadad dasavleTsa da samxreTze modis. TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis gadacemas TETAS – i akontrolebs. Eleqtrodagacemis sistema TurqeTSi metad vrcelia da miuxedavad xazebis didi sigrZisa, xasiaTdeba danakargebis dabali maCvenebliT (3%). kerZo seqtors aqvs saSualeba aagos axali eleqtrogadamcemi xazebi. Gadacemis tarifis regulireba moxdeba EMRA – s mier. xazis mSeneblobis dafinansebis Rirebulebis dafarvamde, xazis tevadobis maqsimum 50% rCeba xazis amSenebeli kompaniis gankargulebaSi.

distribuciis seqtori privatizaciis procesSi imyofeba. TEDAS –i – saxelmwifo sadistribucio kompania daiyo 20 regionalur kompaniad. kerZo kompania distributoriemsaxureba distribuciis ert regions TurqeTSi. 2010 wlamde igegmeba tenderis Catareba saxelmwifos sakuTrebasi myof sadistribucio kompaniebis privatizaciaze.

kompaniebs, romelTa wliuri moxmareba 3 gigavatsaaTs aRemateba, SeuZliad SeuzRudavad SearCion eleqtroenergiis mimwodebeli.

moTxovna eleqtroenergiaze

1960 wlidan moyolebuli, TurqeTSi, moTxovna eleqtroenergiaze weliwadSi saSualod 8% izrdeboda. eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis zrdas mosaxleobisa da erT sul mosaxleze ekonomiuri zrda ganapirobebda. ukanasknel wlebSi moxda moTxovnis gansakuTrebiT mkveTri zrda, nawilobriv ekonomiuri bumisa da saboloo momxmareblisaTvis realuri tarifis donis mniSvnelovani Semcirebis gamo.

2007 wlisaTvis, TurqeTSi mrewveloba mTeli eleqtroenergiis daaxloebiT 40% moixmarda, sabinao seqtori – daaxloebiT 25%, xolo komerciuli da samoqalaqo seqtorebi – 35%.

uaxloes momavalSi mosalodnelia eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis swrafi zrda. TETAS – ma Seadgina moTxovnis zrdis zvruli grafikebi, romlebic 2016 wlamde moTxovnis zrdas afaseben rogorc weliwadSi saSualod 6-7.5%. (ix. cxrili 2.1)

cxrili 2.1: moTxovna eleqtroenergiaze 2016 wlamde

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016moTxovna scenari 1 t.vatsaaTi

203.8 220.7 239.0 258.9 280.1 302.5 326.4 351.8 378.2

moTxovna scenari 2 t.vatsaaTi

196.7 209.1 222.3 236.3 251.1 267.0 283.8 301.9 321.6

moTxovnis zrda scenari 1 t.vatsaaTi

15.4 16.9 18.3 19.8 21.2 22.4 23.9 25.5 26.4

moTxovnis zrda scenari 2 t.vatsaaTi

11.7 12.4 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.8 18.2 19.6

wyaro – TETAS

amrigad, 2016 wlisaTvis mosalodnelia eleqtroenergiiis generaciaze moTxovnis zrda 137-190 t.vatsaaTi, anu misi gaormageba. mxolod 2016 wels, moTxovnis zrda TurqeTSi 19-26 t.vatsaaTs miaRwevs.

moTxovnaze SeiZleba gavlena iqonios mTelma rigma faqtorebisa, romlebic dakavSirebulni arian, TurqeTSi erT sul mosaxleze erToblivi Sida produqtis zrdasTan. saboloo momxmareblisaTvis eleqtroenergiis fasis regulirebam SeiZleba gamoiwvios moTxovnis zrdis Semcireba. amgvari efeqti SeiZleba gamoiwvios ekonomiuri zrdis xangrZlivma vadrnam. 2001 wels eleqtroenergiis moxmarebis vardna TurqeTSi, Eekonomiurma krizisma gamoiwvia. sadistribucio seqtoris marTvaSi Carevam, dResdReobiT gamoiwvia 17% teqnikuri da komerciuli danakargebi, maSin rodesac evrokavSiris mraval qveyanaSi es ricxvi Seadgens 5-7%; aRniSnuls aseve SeuZlia gamoiwvios generirebad eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis Semcireba.

miuxedavad zemiTTqmulisa, moTxovnis zrda, romelic SeimCneva ukanaskneli xuTi aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, rogorc Cans SenarCundeba. TurqeTis moqalaqe, saSualod erTi mesamediT met eleqtroenergias moixmars, vidre evrokavSiris moqalaqe, da rogorc mosalodnelia gagrZeldeba moTxovnis zrda, radganac erT sul mosaxleze erToblivi Sida produqti evrokavSiris qveynebis normas uaxlovdeba.

generaciis struqtura

TurqeTSi SezRudulia enegiis Sinagani wyaroebi da amitom igi, mniSvnelovnadaa damokidebuli sawvavis importze eleqtroenergiis mzerdi moTxovnis dasakmayofileblad. gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovan samamulo energiis wyaroebs, romelTa damuSaveba dResdReobiT mimdinareobs, warmoadgens hidrogeneracia da dabali xarisxis lignituri naxSiri.

qvemoT moyvanili grafiki warmogvidgens TurqeTSi sawvavis struqturis ganviTarebas 1971 wlidan dRemde. 1990 wlidan da Semdgom wlebSi, mimdinareobs generaciis swrafi zrda bunebrivi airis gamoyenebiT, romlis importi ZiriTadad ruseTidan xdeba. kerZo seqtorma ganaxorciela bunebriv airze dafuZvnebuli generaciis ganviTareba, romelic xasiaTdeba dabali kapitaldabandebiT da generaciis sxva teqnologiebTan SedarebiT, sawvavis maRali RirebulebiT.

Nnaxazi 2-1: sawvavis struqturis ganviTareba

TETAS – ma SeimuSava proeqtebi sxvadasxva saxis energiisaTvis eleqtroenergiis generaciis mizniT 2016 wlisaTvis. Proeqtebi moicaven arsebul generacias, generaciis mSenebare obieqtebs da mTavrobis mier mowonebul proeqtebs. Rogorc naxaz 2-3-dan Cans, TurqeTis bazarze izrdeba Seusabamoba, radganac miwodeba cdilobs upasuxos mzardi moTxovnilebis gamowvevas. momaval wlebSi mosalodnelia situaciis gauareseba, rac gamoiwvevs momxmarebelTa gamorTvebs, sistemis datvirTvis mizniT.

naxazi 2-3: moTxovna da sawvavis struqturis ganviTareba

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Other

Demand (scenario 1)

Demand (scenario 2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

An

nu

al

gen

era

tio

n T

Wh

in T

urk

ey

TurqeTSi, eleqtroenergiis generaciisaTvis gamoyenebuli bunebrivi airis raodenobis umetesobis miwodeba xdeba ruseTidan, Savi zRvis milsadenis gavliT; aseve xdeba bunebrivi airis miwodeba azerbaijanidan da iranidan. bunebriv airze dafuZvnebuli eleqtroenergiis generaciis zrdam, gamoiwvia kerZo sabiTumo bazarze navTobisa da bunebrivi airis fasebis mkveTri mateba. mosalodnelia, rom 2008 wlisaTvis, TurqeTSi bunebrivi airis fasi Seadgens 223 evros aTas kubur metrze, da Sesabamisad, bunebriv airze momuSave generaciis mier warmoebuli eleqtroenergiis fasi, sadguris Termoefeqturobidan gamomdinare (29-56%), miaRwevs 5-9 evrocents kilovatsaaTze. miwodebis saimedoba zrdis bunebriv airze dafuZvnebul generacias da aqedan gamondinare xels uwyobs, bunebrivi airis fasebis matebiT gamowveul inflaciis zrdas; amrigad, TurqeTis mTavroba dainteresebulia eleqtroenergiis generaciisaTvis bunebrivi airis moxmarebis SemcirebaSi.

hidroenergetikuli resursebis gafarToebuli gamoyeneba, warmoadgens bunebrivi airis moxmarebis Semcirebis erTerT SesaZleblobas. dResdReobiT TurqeTSi mimdinareobs hidroeleqtrosadgurebis gamoyenebis udidesi zrda. 2006 – 2008 wlebSi TurqeTis hidroenergetikis dagagmarebis saagentom (DSI)mianiWa kerZo seqtor ufleba daamuSaos, mTlianobaSi 7 500 megavatamde energotevadoba, 27 t.vatsaaTi mosalodneli wliuri generaciis pirobebSi. 2013 wlisaTvis, gamoyofili samSeneblo ubnebis srul aTvisebamde, TETAS – is mier Sefasebuli saerTo generacia TurqeTSi Seadgens 67 t.vatsaaTs. amisaTvis TurqeTi iyenebs Tavisi potencialis ekonomiurad umetesad mizanSewonil naxevars. aseve aRsaniSnavia, rom klimaturi cvlilebebis Sedegad, mosalodnelia 2020 wlisaTvis TurqeTSi arsebul hidroeleqtrosadgurebze eleqtroenergiis generaciis Semcirdeba 10%. gansakuTrebiT mwvaved aRniSnuli Seexeba qveynis samxreT-aRmosavleTSi mdebare hidroeleqtrosadgurebs.

TurqeTis hidroenergetikis dagagmarebis saagentos (DSI) mier, moxdeba axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebidan miRebul generaciaze licenziebis tenderze gamotana. kerZo seqtoris kvalificirebuli kompaniebi mzad arian gadaixadon yovel warmoebul kilovatze wylis gadasaxadis umaRlesi nixri TurqeTis hidroenergetikis dagagmarebis saagentos sasargeblod. aRniSnuli gadasaxadi icvleba konstruqtor - mSenebelTaTvis eleqtrosadguris mdebareobis mimzidvelobisagan damokidebulebiT.

tenderebma gamoiwvia udidesi interesi. maTSi monawileoba miiRo 21 monawileoba 240 megavatian sizre – baraJis hidroeleqtrosadguris tenderSi 2008 wlis ianvarSi, romlmac gamarjvebuli kompaniidan

(aigli enerji) miiRo 3.7 evrocent/kilovatsaaTi. ECON – I Tvlis rom am proeqtisaTvis aucilebelia sul mcire 6.7 evrocent/kilovatsaaTi, nivelirebuli tarifi, misTvis rom investorebma SeZlon Sesabamisi mogebis miReba. 2008 wlis maisSi, rizes axlos mdebare 19 megavatian katakis hidroeleqtrosadguris Catarebul tenderSi, romelic toli iyo daaxloebiT 4.1 evrocent/kilovatsaaTisa, TurqeTis hidroenergetikis dagagmarebis saagentos gadasaxadi savaraudod gaizrdeba, Tu moxdeba msoflio bazrebze bunebrivi airisa da navTobis fasebis zrda.

awesebs ra maRal gadasaxadebs hidroeleqtrosadgurebisaTvis, TurqeTis mTavroba axdens xarjebSi mosalodneli sxaobis amoRebas hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mier generirebuli eleqtroenergiis Rirebulebasa da energosistemis zRvruli Rirebulebis Soris.

cxrili 2-2: TurqeTis hidroenergetikis dagagmarebis saagentos sagadasaxado anaricxebi hidroeleqtrosadgurebis samSeneblo mwvane ubnebze. 2006 – 2008 wlebi.

proeqtis dasaxeleba

dadgmuli samrewvelo simZlavre. megavati

wliuri warmadoba. gigavatsaaTi

datvirTvis koeficienti. %

DSI gadasaxadi. evrocenti/kvt

cizre-baraji hes-i

240 1208 57.5 3.68

Dderekoi-demirkapi hes-i

105 366 39.8 3.43

Camilika hes-i

110 376 39.0 3.37

alara enerji grubu hes-i

187 622 37.9 3.06

narli hes-i 130 402 35.3 2.78kairaktepe hes-i

290 768 30.2 2.50

aksu-anakol hes-i

120 344 32.7 2.49

kavsakbendi hes-i

140 652 53.2 2.34

Cetin bar. vehes-i

350 1237 40.3 1.91

arkun hes-i 222 790 40.6 1.68

silvan energi grubu hes-i

160 681 48.6 1.36

silopi energi grubu hes-i

140 356 29.1 0.82

alkumru bar. Hhes-i

222 812 41.8 0.55

sami siodam bar. Hhes-i

175 515 33.6 0.42

auvali (Corun) hes-i

125 409 37.4 0.28

qemah bar. ve hes-i

135 494 41.8 0.04

dileksaSi bar. Hes-i

125 328 30.0 0.04

yarayurt hes-i

110 342 35.5 0.02

saSualo 171 595 39.1 1.71

wyaro – ECON – s gaTvlebi DSI informaciis safuZvelze Turqul lirebSi. gacvliTi kursi evro 0.5431.

navTobsa da bunebriv airze fasebis mkveTri zrdis Sedegad, ufro mimzidveli gaxda naxSiris damuSaveba samamulo lignitisa da importirebuli diurenis (antraciti) safuZvelze. magram avstraliuri antracitis fasi 2008 wlis ivnisSi, navTobsa da bunebriv airze fasebis zrdis Sedegad miuaxlovda tonaze 100 evros, anu moxda 2007 wlis Semdeg 50% zrda, ris Sedegadac importuli naxSiris safuZvelze ganerirebuli eleqtroenergiis Rirebuleba aRwevs 6-8 evrocents kilovatsaaTze. gavlenis wesis Tanaxmad, erTi tona antracitis fasis 25 evroiani zrda Sesabamisad gamoiwvevs mis safuZvelze generirebuli eleqtroenergiis erTi kolovatis Rirebulebis 1 evrocentiT zrdas.

samamulo ligniti warmoadgens TurqeTisaTvis naklebad ZviradRirebul alternativas, im SemTxvevaSi, Tu ar moxda fasebis dadgena naxSirbadis naerTebis emisiaze. TurqeTSi arsebobs sul mcere, 8.1 miliardi tona yvelaze dabali xarisxis lignitis maragi. darCenili maragis 80% mets gaaCnia 2,500 kilokaloria/kg-ze naklebi Tbombadi resursi. eleqtroenergiis generaciisaTvis samamulo lignitis gamoyeneba Seamcirebs energomomaragebis mzard saimedobas da dascems generirebuli eleqtroenergiis Rirebulebas.

TurqeTis mTavrobas dagegmili aqvs mkveTrad gazardos uaxloes wlebSi lignitis warmoeba. igegmeba jamSi 5 000 megavat simSlavris Sesabamisi lignitis axali gamomuSaveba, rac weliwadSi 38

t.vatsaaT eleqtroenergiis generirebas niSnavs; es daaxloebiT 20% zrdaa. imisaTvis, rom srulad Caanacvlos generaciis procesebSi bunebrivi airi lignitiT, TurqeTisaTvis aucilebelia sul mcire 10 000 megavat damatebiTi simZlavris Seqmna, garda dResdReobiT dagegmili 5 000 megavatisa.

gagrZeldebaLlignitis gamomuSavebis gafaroeba, miuxedavad axali qarxnebis mSeneblobisadmi adgilobrivi opoziciuri ganwyobisa. evrokavSiri adgens mkacr moTxovnebs energoseqtoridan emisiis mimarT, gansakuTrebiT kiotoSi miRebuli oqmis Semdeg, romelic naxSirbadis naerTebis gamoyofis Semcirebas exeba. lignitis gamomuSavebis zrda gamoiyureba, rogorc arc Tu ise sasurveli varianti energosistemisaTvis, eleqtroenergiis Rirebulebisa da energosaimedobis gamowvevaTa fonze.

lignitis warmoebis gafarToebam SeiZleba Caanacvlos bunebrivi airi, rogorc generaciis safuZveli TurqeTSi da Seamciros misi xarjebi. miuxedavad amisa, fasebi samamulo lignitze xasiaTdebian zrdis tendenciiT, bunebriv airsa da importirebul naxSirze fasebis zrdasTan erTad, amitom samamulo lignitis RirebulebiTi upiratesoba grZelvadian momavalSi gaurkvevelia.

garda samamulo naxSirisa da hidroresursebisa, TurqeTis mTavroba ganixilavs birTvuli energiis gamoyenebis SesaZleblobas, momavalSi eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis dakmayofilebis mizniT. sxva eleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis tenderebis paralelurad, 2008 wlis gazafxulze gamocxadda tenderi 3 000 – 5 000 megavat simZlavris birTvuli reaqtoris mSeneblobaze. 4 000 megavat simZlavris birTvul reaqtors SeuZlia yovelwliurad 30 t.vatsaaTze meti eleqtroenergiis gamomuSaveba. aRniSnuls dasWirdeba sul mcire 10 weli tenderis daxurvis momentidan, xolo birTvuli energiis Rirebulebam SeiZleba Seadginos daaxloebiT 5-7 evrocenti/kilovatsaaTze, kapitalis sidideze damokidebulebiT.

amrigad, TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis swrafi zrda momavalSi ganapirobebs ganStoebuli samamulo energoresursebis Serwymas pikuri moTxovnis dasakmayofileblad, aseve birTvuli warmoebisa da samamulo lignitis warmoebis gafarToebas datvirTvaze moTxovnis dakmayofilebis mizniT. aseve savaraudoa bunebriv airis safuZvelze eleqtroenergiis gamomuSaveba, im SemTxvevaSi, Tu misi fasi daiklebs an mzardi deficitis pirobebSi moklevadiani gadawyvetis saxiT.

garda amisa, konkurentunariani fasebis SemTxvevaSi SesaZlebelia TurqeTma ganaxorcielos eleqtroenergiis importi.

saqarTvelodan eleqtroenergiis importi SemoTavazebuli xazis gavliT, Seadgens 2013 wels TurqeTis mier moxmarebuli energiis 1-3%, da amitom aRniSnuli ver moaxdens materialur gavlenas fasebze.

naxazze 2-4 mocemulia birTvuli hidroeleqtrosadguris tevadobisa da lignitis safuZvelze generirebuli eleqtroenergiis grafiki. im SemTxevaSi Tu moTxovnis zrda ar Semcirda, rogorc Cans TurqeTi, 2016 wlis periodSi moTxovnisa da momaragebis dabalansebis mizniT, gadaixreba bunebriv airze momuSave eleqtrosadgurebisa da/an sistemis datvirTvidan momxmareblebis gamorTvisaken.

naxazi 2-4: damtkicebuli proeqtebis arsebobis pirobebSi eleqtroenergiis balansi da importi. 2016 weli.

eleqtroenergiis fasebi

ukanaskneli wlebis ganmavlobaSi moxda sabiTumo fasebis mkveTri zrda TurqeTis energobazarze. aRniSnulSi lomis wili Seitana importirebul bunebriv airze fasebis zrdam. qvemoTmoyvanil naxazze 2-5 warmodgenilia yovelTviuri gasaSualoebuli fasebi saaTobriv safuZvelze 2007 wlis maisidan 2008 wlis maisamde. 2008 wlis ianvrisa da Tebervlis gamoklebiT, rodesac dafiqsirda 6.7 evrocent/kilovatsaaTze maRali saSualo fasebi dRis ganmavlobaSi. aRniSnul periodSi fasebi mcirdeboda RamiT (1am-dan 7am-de) da maRali rCeboda danarCeni dRis ganmavlobaSi. Am periodSi fasebis dadgenaze gadamwyveti gavlena gaaCnia bunebrivi airis safuZvelze warmoebul generacias da isini meryeoben 7-9 evrocenti/kilovatsaaTis farglebSi 2008 wels. Ramis ganmavlobaSi, dabali datvirTvis pirobebSi fasebs adgens eleqtroenergiis generacia samamulo lignitis safuZvelze daxdeba maTi Semcireba 2.7-4.7 evrocent/kilovatsaaTamde. TurqeTSi, kerZo eleqtroenergiis saSualo sabiTumo fasi evroSi dolarTan mimarTebiT, gaizarda 13% 2007 wlis marti – ivlisis periodidan 2008 wlis Sesabamis periodamde da Seadgina 7.9 evrocenti/kilovatsaaTze.

naxazi 2-5: sabiTumo fasebi kerZo eleqtroenergiaze 2007 wlis martidan 2008 wlis ivlisamde.

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eleqtroenergiis eqsporti/importi TurqeTSi

dResdReobiT TurqeTi ar axorcielebs mniSvnelovan savaWro SeTanxmebebs eleqtroenergiis sferoSi mezobel qveynebTan. qveyanam 2005 wels ZiriTadad erayidan, ganaxorciela 636 gigavatsaaTis importi da 1.8 t.vatsaaTis eqsporti, anu wliuri moxmarebis 3% procentze naklebi. Tumca moxdeba am situaciis Secvla mas Semdeg rac, bulgareTsa da saberZneTSi 2012 wlisaTvis dasruldeba gaerTianebuli damakavSirebeli mSenebare sistemis mSenebloba. dasavleTis mimarTulebiT yovelwliuri gadacemis tevadoba gaizrdeba daaxloebiT 2000 megavatiT, anu 17 t.vatsaaTiT. gaerTianebuli sistemis aRniSnuli tevadoba uTuod iqoniebs gavlenas TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis fasebze, Tumca TurqeTTan SeerTebuli evrokavSiris qveyana, TurqeTSi moqmed eleqtrogeneraciis fasebs Seejaxeba.

TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis importi da eqsporti liberalizebulia. sabiTumo vaWrobis licenziis mflobelebs (TETAS – i - saxelmwifos sakuTreba da 25 kerZo mflobeli) gaaCniaT ufleba awarmoon eleqtroenergiis eqsporti da importi TurqeTSi(dan) maRali Zabvis gadacemis sistemis gamoyenebiT. ankaraSi, 2008 wlis maisSi ECON-sTvis micemul interviuSi, TurqeTis energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministros energetikis saqmeTa generalurma direqtorma burak dilim ganacxada, rom saministro upiratesobas aniWebs eleqtroenergiis importis kerZo gadawyvetas da ukrZalavs TETAS –s raime saxis grZelvadiani garantiis gacemas eleqtroenergiis Sesyidvaze mezobeli qveynebidan, saqarTvelos CaTvliT.

imave vizitisas, ECON – Tan saubrebSi, TETAS –is generalurma menejerma, Bbatonma xasi diuran gokaiam gamoxata daintereseba eleqtroenergiis Sesyidvis grZelvadiani kontraqtebiT; Tumca, vinaidan TETAS – i valdebulia miiRos instruqciebi saministrosgan aRniSnuli sakiTxebis mimarTebiT, gaurkvevelia Tu ramdenad saimedoa TETES – is pozicia

kerZo kompaniebs Soris, romelTac gaaCniaT sabiTumo vaWrobis licenzia, arsebobs ramodenime saerTaSoriso kompania, romelTa saTao ofisi mdebareobs TurqeTSi. qvemoTmoyvanil cxrilSi CamoTvlilia sabiTumo vaWrobis licenzis mflobeli zogierTi umsxvilesi kompania. isini SeiZleba CaiTvalon sando mxareebad saqarTvelos kompaniisaTvis, romelsac surs ganaxorcielos eleqtroenergiis eqsporti TurqeTSi.

cxrili 2-3: sabiTumo vaWrobis licenzis mflobeli zogierTi Turquli kompania.

kompaniis dasaxeleba wliuri saqonelbrunvasakontaqto detalebi

Enerjisa Elektrik (fully owned by Sabanci Group

9,9 mlrd. evro (Sabanci 2007)

www.sabanci.com

Zorlu Electric Enerjisi 3,5 mlrd. evro (2005) www.zorlu.com.tr

Ak Enerji 112 milioni evro (Ak Enerji 2006)

www.akenerji.com.tr

ECON – ma ankaraSi 2008 wlis maisSi, Caatara mTeli rigi Sexvedrebi energokompaniebTan, romlebmac gamoxates daintereseba ganaxorcielon sabiTumo vaWroba saqarTvelodan eleqtroenergiis eqsportis mizniT.unda aRiniSnos, rom gaurkvevelia Tu ramdenad mzad arian es kompaniebi qarTvel eleqtroenergiis gamyidvlebTan Sesyidvis grZelvadiani kontraqtebis gasaformeblad. aucilebelia am sakiTxis calke ganxilva damproeqteblebTan saqarTvelosa da azerbaijanSi, aseve kerZo biTumad movaWreebTan.

EMRA – m gamosca dadgenilebebi TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis importisa da eqsportis Sesaxeb. am dadgenilebebSi gansazRvrulia pirobebi, romelTa Sesrulebac aucilebelia im organizaciisaTvis romelsac surs ganaxorcielos eleqtroenergiis importi/eqsporti. dadgenilebebSi gacxadebulia Semdegi pirobebi:

- nacionaluri energosistemis eqspluotaciis SesaZlebloba sxva qveynis sistemis eqspluotaciis paralelurad;

- nacionaluri magenerirebeli danadgris an misi blokis eqspluotaciis SesaZlebloba maimportirebeli qveynis sistemis paralelurad;

- eqspluotacia izolirebulad;- mudmivi denis asinqronuli paraleluri kavSiris dadgmis

SesaZlebloba.

dadgenileba gansazRvravs, miwodebis wyarosa da xangrZlivobaze, aseve eleqtroenergiis raodenobis Taobaze warsadgen informacias.

ganacxadi eleqtroenergiis import/eqsportze ganxilul iqneba energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministros mier; moxdeba TETAS – is azris gaTvaliswineba sazRvris Turqul mxares gadacemis tevadobis Sesaxeb. Tu aRniSnuli azri dadebiTi iqneba, moxdeba ganacxadis ganTavseba energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministros veb – saitze.

ankaraSi, 2008 wlis maisSi ECON-sTvis micemul interviuSi, batonma qemal ildirma, TETAS –is generaluri menejeris moadgilem daadastura TurqeTis mxares borCxSi daaxloebiT 1 000 megavatis miRebis SesaZlebloba, magram aRniSna, rom Znelia eqsportis moculobis 1 000 megavatze metad gazrda, Tu ar ganxorcielda gadacemis damatebiTi tevadobis mSenebloba borCxidan centraluri da dasavleT TurqeTis mimarTulebiT.

TETAS –i Caatarebs konkurentunarian tenders tevadobis gamoyenebis SefasebisaTvis, im SemTxvevaSi Tu iqneba imaze meti kompania romelic gamoxatavs survils gamoiyenos urTierTdamakavSirebeli gadacemis xazi, vidre amis saSualebas xazis tevadoba iZleva. EMRA – s wesebis ATanaxmad kompaniebma, romelTac surT gamoiyenon xazis tevadoba unda miiRon saqarTvelos energetikis saministros Tanxmoba. anu, saqarTvelos energetikis saministros SeuZlia mniSvnelovani roli Seasrulos saqarTvelos sistemidan borCxas mimarTulebiT eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergiis tarifis dadgenaSi. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqarTvelos energetikis saministro ar daamtkicebs 1 000 megavatze meti eleqtroenergiis eqsports (xazis savaraudo tevadoba), Turquli mxare ar Caatarebs tenders da ar dadgindeba regulirebadi gadacemis tarifi.

saqarTvelodan eleqtroenergiis importis ekonomiuri mizanSewoniloba

arsebobs imis molodini, rom TurqeTis energoseqtorma SeiZleba ganicados mwvave deficiti raRac garkveul drois SualedSi. TurqeTis energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministrom deficitis dafarvis mizniT, gamoxata udidesi interesi dainteresebuli qveynebidan eleqtroenergiis importis mimarT, maT Soris saqarTvelodanac.

daaxloebiT 1 000 megavatiani arsebuli gadacemaTa tevadoba borCxadan (TurqeTi) gamoiyeneba importirebuli eleqtroenergiis gadasacemad TurqeTis samxreTisa da aRmosavleTis mimarTulebiT. anu, amJamad gamarTlebuli iqneba mxolod erTi, 400/500 kilovoltiani gadamcemi xazi saqarTvelodan TurqeTismimarTulebiT, TurqeTis mxares, borCxasTan gadacemis tevadobis gafarToebis gareSe.

dResdReobiT fasebi TurqeTis eleqtroenergiis kerZo sabiTumo bazarze maRalia da amave doneze darCeba manam sanam navTobis/bunebrivi airis fasebi aRemateba 80 aSS dolars barelze, radganac adgili aqvs deficits.

TurqeTis energetikisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministros surs rom TurqeTis kerZo sabiTumo saqtorma imoqmedos rogorc biTumad movaWrem saqarTvelodan eleqtroenergiis importisaTvis da ar gasces aranairi grZelvadiani garantia saxelmwifos sakuTrebaSi myofi, TETAS – is meSveobiT energiis Sesyidvisas. gaurkvevelia Tu ra saxiT gegmavs kerZo seqtori grZelvadiani SeTanxmebebis uzrunvelyofas, maSin rodesac TurqeTis sabiTumo energobazari imyofeba gardamaval stadiaSi da dResdReobiT muSaobs rogorc arsebuli saqonlis bazari.

axal hidroeleqtrosadgurebze Zalzed maRali gadasaxadis gamo (3.7 evrcent/kilovatsaaTamde), umetesad perspeqtiul qarTul hidroeleqtrosadgurebs gaaCniaT mniSvnelovani upiratesoba Rirebulebis TvalsazrisiT, TurqeTis hidroeleqtrosadgurebTan SedarebiT.

danarTi 3

saqarTvelodan TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportis SesaZleblobebi

saqarTvelo flobs evropaSi erTerT umsxviles hidroresurss. teqniko – ekonomiuri resursi Sefasebulia 60 t.vatsaaTamde, romelTagan daaxloebiT 8 t.vatsaaTi, anu 15% naklebi aTvisebulia. qveyana miiswrafis moizidos kerZo seqtoris kapitali resursebis aTvisebis mizniT. amis ramdenime mizezi arsebobs, magram ZiriTadi mizezi isaa, rom tarifis done saqarTvelosa da mezobel, saqarTvelosTan dakavSirebul maRali tevadobis mqone qveynebSi (azerbaijani, ruseTi), Zalzed dabalia da amgvarad Zalzed mimzidveli axali investiciebisaTvis.

3.1 saqarTvelos energoseqtori

saqarTvelos gaaCnia deregulirebuli energoseqtori, romelmac 2004 wlidan ganicada STambeWdavi modernizacia. seqtori deregulirebulia da dayofilia magenerirebel, gadamcem da sadistribucio kompaniebad. damoukidebeli maregulirebeli organo axorcielebs seqtoris zedamxedvelobas da agebs pasuxs tarifis dadgenaze, maSin rodesac saqarTvelos energetikis saministros uflebamosileba Semoifargleba politikasTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebiT. generaciis aqtivebs nawilobriv flobs saxelmwifo da municipalitetebi, magram kerZo interesebis gaTvaliswinebiT. eleqtroenergiis generacia ZiriTadad xdeba hidroeleqtrosadgurebis meSveobiT, maSin rodesac bunebriv airze dafuZvnebuli eleqtrosadgurebi da importi gamoiyeneba pikuri miTxovnis dasakmayofileblad da moTxovnis dasakmayofileblad zamTris periodSi. 2007 wels saqarTvelo, ZiriTadad sazafxulo eqsportis xarjze, warmoadgenda eleqtroenergiis eqsportior qveyanas.

energosistemis komerciuli operatori (ESCO) pasuxismgebelia bazris dabalansebaze, eleqtroenergiis eqsportisa da importis kontraqtebze. igi warmoadgens, saqarTvelos saxelmwifos sakuTrebaSi myof komerciul organizacias, Tumca, uaxloes wlebSi dagegmilia misi privatizeba.

gadacemebis sistemis magistralur xazs warmoadgens 500 kilovoltiani xazi, romelic aerTebs saqarTvelos generaciis

ZiriTad aqtivebs ruseTis gadacemaTa qselTan. xazis TanamesakuTreebi arian rao es (50%) da saqarTvelos saxelmwifo (50%). Garda amisa saqarTvelos mTavroba flobs gadamcem kompanias, saqarTvelos saxelmwifo eleqtrosistemas (GSE), romelic pasuxismgebelia ZiriTad 220/330 kilovoltian sistemaze da zogierT 110/35 kilovoltian araprivatizebul aqtivze. saqarTvelos saxelmwifo eleqtrosistema aseve warmoadgens sistemis operators. Cexuri kompania “energo pro” UEDC – s sakuTrebis uflebidan gamomdinare, flobs sistemis zogierT 110 kilovoltian xazs.

saqarTveloSi moqmedebs sami sadistribucio kompania. amaTgan ors gaaCnia daaxloebiT 1 milioni momxmarebeli. esenia: Telasi (pasuxismgebelia distribuciaze TbilisSi da warmoadgens 75% rao es-is sakuTrebas) da UEDC (pasuxismgebelia distribuciaze Tbilisis farglebs gareT dawarmoadgens “energo pro”-s srul sakuTrebas). kaxeTis sadistribucio warmoadgens mcire sadistribucio kompanias, romelic muSaobs qveynis aRmosavleTSi. aseve funqcionirebs saxelmwifo sadistribucio kompania afxazeTSi, romelic ar imyofeba saqarTvelos mTavrobis kontrolis qveS.

Nnaxazi 3-1: saqarTvelos energoseqtoris struqtura

importi/eqsporti – TurqeTi, irani, somxeTi, azerbaijani, ruseTigeneracia – engurhesi, sxva hesebi, TPPdistribucia – Telasi, UEDC, afxazeTi

Eenergetikis saministro energomaregulirebeli

Ggeneraciis kompaniebi

energosistema, komerciuli operatori ESCO

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo elewqtrisistema&erT. Saw. saqenergo

importi/eqsporti

sadistribucio kompaniebi

uSualo momxmareblebi

3.2 generaciis tevadoba

saqarTvelos energisistema ZiriTadad wyalzea damyarebuli. saerTo dadgenili hidroenergotevadoba Seadgens daaxloebiT 2820 megavats. Garda amisa sistemaze mierTebulia daaxloebiT 650 megavetis toli bunebriv airze dafuZvnebuli Tbogeneracia, romeltagan 110 megavati warmoadgens 2006 wels dadgmulTanamedrove gazis turbinas (Ria cikliT).

2007 wels eleqtroenergiis hidrogeneraciis wilma eleqtroenergiis srul warmoebaSi 78% Seadgina, Termulma generaciam – 17%, importma daaxloebiT 5%, moxda generirebuli eleqtroenergiis daaxloebiT 8% eqsporti, ZiriTadad zafxulis periodSi, maSin rodesac eleqtroenergiis gamomuSavebis SesaZlebloba imyofeba pikur mdgomareobaSi saqarTvelos mdinareebis nakadebis sezonuri struqturis gamo.

naxazi 3-2: generaciis profili da eqsporti, saqarTvelo, 2007w.

Hydro generation

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ESCO – s monacemebis Tanaxmad, 2007 wels saqarTvelom ganaxorciela daaxloebiT 625 gigavatsaaTi eleqtroenergiis eqsporti, ZiriTadad gacvliTi kontraqtebis safuZvelze mezobel saxelmwifoebTan, romelTa safuZvelzec xdeboda zafxulis generaciis Warbi eleqtroenergiis gayidva zamTarSi importirebuli eleqtroenergiis sanacvlod. wminda eqsportis jami Seadgens 192 gigavatssaaTs.

3.3 eleqtrienergiis sabiTumo fasebi saqarTveloSi

naxazze 3-3 moyvanilia eleqtroenergiis sabiTumo fasebis Sedareba saqarTvelosa da TurqeTSi. maSin rodesac TurqeTSi, kerZo seqtoris mier gamomuSavebul eleqtroenergiaze saSualo sabiTumo tarifi Seadgens 7.8 evrocents kilovatsaaTze 2007 wlis agvistodan 2008 wlis ivlisamde da 9.3 evrocents kilovatsaaTze 2008 wlis ivlisSi, saqarTveloSi imave periodSi saSualo fasma Seadgina 2.5 evrocent kilovatsaaTze. saqarTveloSi adgili aqvs tarifis meryeobas zefxulis Tveebsa, rodesac sistemaSi arsebobs Warbi eleqtroenergia da eqsportis SezRuduli arCevani, da zamTris Tveebs Soris. mosalodnelia, rom saqarTveloSi moxdeba zamTris generaciis Rirebulebis zrda, radganac uaxloes wlebSi gaizrdeba importirebuli bunebrivi airis Rirebuleba.

naxazi 3-3: eleqtroenergiis sabiTumo fasebi saqarTvelosa da TurqeTSi, 2007 marti – 2008 ivlisi.

Turkey private w holesale tariff

Georgia balancing tariff ESCO

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Turkey 5,45 6,17 5,77 6,50 7,26 6,82 6,11 6,01 7,41 7,69 9,09 9,01 8,25 7,74 8,32 8,03 9,33

Georgia 2,38 2,52 1,72 1,74 0,89 1,74 2,85 3,64 3,72 4,04 3,75 3,85 2,90 1,19 1,53 1,53 1,15

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berOctobe

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3.4 datvirTvebis prognozi

ukanasknel wlebSi saqarTvelos ekonomika swrafad viTardeboda eleqtroenergiis gamomuSavebaze moTxovnilebis SesamCnevi zrdis gareSe. 2007 wels, rodesac ekonomika 12.4% gaizarda, moTxovna eleqtroenergiis generaciaze gaizarda daaxloebiT 3%. eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis neli zrda ganapiroba energetikul seqtorSi mimdinare modernizaciam, romlis Sedegad Semcirda danakargebi gadacemisa da ditribuciis dros. Sualedur periodSi

mosalodnelia datvirTvebis pikuri zrda, xolo ekonomikis zrda gamoiwvevs eleqtroenergiaze moTxovnis matebas.

ECON Poyry – m ganaxorciela zogierTi gaTvla 2016 wlamde wliuri datvirTvis zrdasTan mimarTebaSi sabazo situaciaze dayrdnobiT, rodesac mimdinareobs erTiani Siga produqtis zrda erT sul mosaxleze weliwadSi 6-8% 2016 wlamde, xolo moTxovna generirebul eleqtroenergiaze izrdeba 25% erTiani Siga produqtis zrdasTan erTad. aRniSnuli Seesabameba 2007 wels dafiqsirebul zrdas. cxril 3-1 – Si mocemulia mosalodneli zrda eleqtroenergiis generaciis moTxovnaze.

cxrili 3-1: moTxovnis prognozi, saqarTvelo, 2008 – 2016 ww. (gigavatsaaTi).

Mmosalodneli zrda 3% weliwadSi2007 (faqtiuri) 84382008 86912009 89522010 92202011 94972012 97822013 100752014 103782015 106892016 11010

saqarTvelos savaraudod dasWirdeba 2.5 t.vatsaaTi eleqtroenergiis damatebiTi generacia, raTa Seesabamebodes 2016 wlisaTvis mosalodnel moTxovnis zrdas.

saqarTvelosaTvis datvirTvebis mruds weliwadis dro gansazRvravs. gaTbobis sezonTan dakavSirebiT, zamTris periodSi moTxovna izrdeba. imis daSvebiT, rom eleqtroenergiaze moTxovna weliwadSi 3% izrdeba, SesaZlebelia ganisazRvros datvirTvis miaxloebiTi yovelTviuri mrudi 2016 wlisaTvis, romelic warmodgenilia naxaz 3-4 – ze.

naxazi 3-4: datvirTvis yovelTviuri zrda 2007 – 2016 wlebSi. (3% weliwadSi).

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Monthly demand 2007 786 707 753 671 563 524 565 576 544 578 695 851

Monthly demand 2016 1025 923 982 876 735 683 737 751 710 754 906 1110

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3.5 msxvili eleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis SesaZlebloba

arsebobs mTeli rigi e.w. mwvane adgilebisa, romlTa gadacemas saqarTvelos mTavroba kerZo seqtoris investorebisaTvis gegmavs. aseTebia namaxvanis kaskadi, sadac Catarda teqnikur-ekonomikuri kvleva, aseve onisa da mtkvris kaskadebi. mTavroba aseve ganixilavs mdinare rionis zewdawelSi, onisa da namaxvanis kaskadebs Soris axali kaskadis mSeneblobis SesaZleblobas. wliuri jamuri generacia am adgilebidan Sefasebulia rogorc 5.7 t.vatsaaTi, rac TiTqmis orjer aRemateba saqarTveloSi gamomuSavebul, jamur eleqtroenergiis raodenobas. aRniSnul adgilebSi igegmeba SedarebiT mcire rezervuarebis mSenebloba, romlebic sawyalosno nakadebis sezonur diagramebTan Sesabamisad, moaxdenen eleqtroenergiis umetesi nawilis zafxulis sezonSi gamomuSavebas, anu maSin rodesac eleqtroenergiis fasebi saqarTveloSi yvelaze dabalia; aRniSnuls SeiZleba davamatoT is faqtic rom qveyana warmoadgens eleqtroenergiis neto-eqsportiors (e.i saboloo eqsportiori).

naxazi 3.5: msxvili hes-bis proeqtebis wliuri generaciis Sefaseba.

naxazze 3.5 warmodgenilia, aRniSnul ubnebze miaxloebiTi yovelTviuri generaciis profilebi, miaxloebiT Tbogeneraciasa da saqarTveloSi eleqtroenergiis importTan erTad (Savi zoli), aseve Tbogeneracia da datvirTvis zrda 2016 wlisaTvis, moTxovnis 3% zrdis pirobebSi.

oTxi Sefasebuli kaskadidan, mdinare rionis qvedawilSi mdebare namaxvanis kaskadis Semdeg, zamTarSi generaciis maRal dones onis kaskadi uzrunvelyofs. aseve miRebul iqna dakvirvebebis Semdegi Sedegebi:

- namaxvanis kaskads onis hidroeleqtrosadgurTan SedarebiT gaaCnia mcire warmadoba (55%-i 75%-Tan SedarebiT, 90% garantirebuli generaciis pirobebSi). aRniSnuli warmoqmnis proeqtis dafinansebis problemebs. Namaxvanis kaskadis warmadobis gazrda SesaZlebelia onis hidroeleqtrosadguris rezervuaris aSenebis SemTxvevaSi, romelic gaaumjobesebs sawyalosno nakadebis regularobas mdinare rionis qvedawelSi.

- zeda rionis hidroeleqtrosadguri, romlis Sefasebac moxda saerTaSoriso inJinris mier, mdebareobs onisa da namaxvanis

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Upper Rioni Cascade

Mtkvari Cascade

Namakhvani Cascade

Oni Cascade

Load growth to 2016 3% p.a.

Thermal production 2007

kaskadebs Soris. aRniSnuli kaskadis mSenebloba moiTxovs gvirabis gayvanas mdinare zeda rionis mTeli sigrZis gaswvriv, rasac SeiZleba ar daeTanxmon garemos dacvis samsaxurebi.

- arsebobs mosazrebebi onisa da namaxvanis hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobasTan dakavSirebuli seismuri riskebis Sesaxeb. samSeneblo ubnebi mdebareobs saqarTvelos seismurad yvelaze aqtiur zonaSi; miuxedavad amisa, SesaZlebelia seismuri riskebis Tavidan acileba, Tu ganxorcieldeba armirebuli kaSxlis mSenebloba, romelic rixteris skalis mixedviT 9 balian miwisZvras gauZlebs.

- gamokvleulia mtkvris kaskadis mxolod erTi nawili, kaskadis sxva nawilebi naklebad mimzidvelia investorebisaTvis.

im SemTxvevaSi, Tu ganxorcielda hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis yvela msxvili proeqti, saqarTvelo zafxulis TveebSi miiRebs damatebiTi eleqtroenergiis mniSvnelovan raodenobas. unda aRiniSnos rom, ver moxdeba verc erTi proeqtis realizeba, Tu ar ganxorcielda eleqtroenergiis umetesi nawilis eqsporti mezobel saxelmwifoebSi.

3.6 hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis Rirebuleba

oTxidan sam SemoTavazebul samSeneblo ubanze, mSeneblobis xarjebis gaTvla moxda sainJinro sakonsultacio firma norplanis, hidroenergetikis sakiTxebSi saerTaSoriso inJinris mier, saqarTvelos sainJinro sakonsultacio firma gross enerjis mier miwodebuli monacemebisa da zogierTi ubnis vizualuri daTvalierebis safuZvelze. yovel warmoebul kilovatze mSeneblobis xarjebi zeda rionis da namaxvanis kaskadebisaTvis savaraudod analogiuri iqneba.

naxaz 3-6 – ze warmodgenilia saqarTvelos axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis gasaSualoebuli xarjebi generaciis alternatiul teqnologiebTan SedarebiT. generaciis alternatiul teqnologiebis saorientacio Rirebulebis gansazRvra moxda, energoseqtorSi mowyobilobaTa fasebis Sesaxeb msoflio bankis monacemebze dayrdnobiT (2008 wlis ivlisi). hidroeleqtrosadgurebis sicocxlisunarianoba 30 wliT ganisazRvra. mowyobilobaTa fasebis orientirs warmoadgenda rumineTis fasebi. xarjebis dadgenisas gaTvaliswinebul iqna 11.4% SeRavaTi. bunebrivi airisa da navTobisaTvis gamoyenebul iqna sawvavis fasebis ori gansxvavebuli scenari (ix. cxrili 3.3).

naxazi 3-6: saqarTvelos axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebisa da generaciis alternatiuli teqnilogiebis gasaSualoebuli Rirebuleba.

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O&M 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,9 5,9 6,7 2,9 7,9 5,9

Investment 31,9 33,7 37,4 10,3 35,6 64,2 10,2 64,4 35,5

Namakhvani HPP*

Oni HPP*Mktvari HPP*

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USD/tcm

Coal 55 USD/t

Wind onshore

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Coal 150 USD/t

saqarTvelos axali hidroeleqtrosadgurebis Rirebuleba Seadgens birTvuli, qvanaxSirisa da bunebrivi airis alternativebis Rirebulebis naxevars. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom 2008 wlisaTvis navTobis, bunebrivi airis da qvanaxSiris fasebma moimata, hidroeleqtrosadgurebi uTuod warmoadgenen generaciis naklebad ZviradRirebul arCevans.

navTobze/bunebriv airze momuSave danadgarebi iqnebian zRvruli mwarmoeblebi TurqeT – saqarTvelos sistemaSi; amrigad daadgenen ra fasebs Turquli sistemisaTvis, TurqeTis sabiTumo bazris bazris sruli deregulaciis Semdeg, isini gansazRvraven xvedriT mTlian mogebas samSeneblo ubnebze agebuli hidroeleqtrosagurebidan: proeqtSi investirebuli aqciebis 20

namaxvanis hes-i

Oonis hes-i

mtkvris hes-i

CCGT 200

USD/tcm

qvanaxSiri 55 USD/t

sanapiro qari

CCGT 400

USD/tcm

birTv.energia

qvanaxSiri 55 USD/t

sawvavi 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 15.0 0.0 58.9 4.7 41.0navT&gazi 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 5.9 6.7 2.9 7.9 5.9investicia 31.9 33.7 37.4 10.3 36.6 64.2 10.2 64.4 35.5

wliani Semosavlis Siga koeficienti Sefasebulia rogorc 20-24%, rac mimzidvels xdis zemoTnaxseneb ubnebs kerZo investorebisaTvis.

3.7 TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportis potenciali

500/400 kilovoltiani maRali Zabvis gadamcemi xazis agebis SemTxvevaSi, saqarTvelos eqneba sakmarisi, axladaSenebuli hidroeleqtrosadgurebidan miRebuli, eleqtroenergiis raodenoba aRniSnuli xazis srulad dasatvirTvad weliwadSi oTxi Tvis ganmavlobaSi da uzrunvelyofili eqneba datvirTvis tevadoba damatebiTi ori TvisaTvis. saqarTveloSi arsebulisxva, mcire hidroeleqtrosadgurebi SeZleben uzrunvelyon deficitis Sevseba darCenili 5 Tvis ganmavlobaSi, rodesac nebadarTuli iqneba eleqtroenergiis eqsporti saqarTveloSi moqmedi dadgenilebebis (instruqciebis) Tanaxmad da Tu SemoTavazebul ubnebze ganxorcielda rezervuarebis mSenebloba. Cxril 3-2 – Si warmodgenilia oTxi hidroeleqtrosadguridan saeqsportod miRebuli eleqtroenergiis saSualo wliuri raodenobis gaTvla da xazis mzidi simZlavre da wminda arsebuli simZlavre.

cxrili 3.2: generacia saqarTveloSi da Tavisufali sarezervo simZlavre TurqeTisaTvis, 2016 weli.

2016 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIOonis kaskadi 81.8 74.3 85.9 146.4 202.5 182.7 183.7 186.4 126.7 104.7 89.5 86.2

namaxvanis kaskadi

70.0 58.7 73.1 253.3 257.0 226.3 171.4 109.8 135.1 163.7 101.4 23.7

mtkvris kaskadi

29.1 27.2 33.9 138.2 188.7 112.9 58.1 29.8 23.3 27.0 29.3 29.5

rionis zeda kaskadi

85.2 71.4 88.9 308.3 312.8 275.3 208.5 133.7 164.4 199.2 123.4 28.8

arsebuli hes-ebis reabilitacia

120.5 127.8 128.6 122.6 149.6 141.0 184.3 179.4 123.7 83.6 108.4 106.1

2007w. eleqtroenergiis eqsporti

6.7 7.2 9.7 7.1 64..3 68.7 208.4 180.5 40.1 15.9 4.6 12.2

2016 w. datvirTvis zrda 3% p.a.

240 216 229 205 172 160 172 176 166 176 212 259

arsebuli xazebis tevadoba

730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

tevadobis moTxovna 2016w.

6.7 7.2 9.7 771 1003 847 842 644 448 15.9 4.6 12.2

eqsportirebuli simZlavre

6.7 7,2 9.7 730.0 730.0 730.0 730.0 644.1 447.5 15.9 4.6 12.2

cifrebi gvaCvenebs, rom ar iqneba adekvaturi simZlavre axladaSenebuli hidroeleqtrosadgurebidan 2016 wlis maisSi, ivnissa da ivlisSi miRebuli eleqtroenergiis sruli gadacemisaTvis. aRniSnuli sakiTxi moixsneba, Tu ar ganxorcieldamtkvris kaskadis mSenebloba, radganac igi warmoadgens pikur sadgurs, romelic generacias ZiriTadad gazafxul-zafxulSi axorcielebs. mtkvarhesis CaTvliT, saqarTveloSi zafxulis periodSi simZlavris moTxovna daaxloebiT 4.4 t.vatsaaTs Seadgens, xolo mtkvarhesis CauTvlelad daaxloebiT 3.8 t.vatsaaTs.

saqarTvelos aseve gaaCnia bunebrivi airis safuZvelze nawarmoebi eleqtroenergiis Tavisufali sarezervo simZlavre, xolo saqarTveloSi bunebrivi airis importis fasi TiTqmis 50% dabalia analogiuri fasisa TurqeTisaTvis (111 da 223 evro yovel aTas kubur metrze). saqarTveloSi arsebul Ria ciklis bunebrivi airis turbinebs gaaCniaT Termaluri warmadoba 29 – 38%, TurqeTSi arsebul cvladi sixSiris radialur-RerZul, 50% da met warmadobis mqone, bunebrivi airis generatorebTan SedarebiT. axali, 110 megavatiani Ria ciklis turbina, romelic daidga gardabanSi enerji investis mier, SeiZleba gardaiqmnas radialur-RerZul turbinad, romlis Termaluri simZlavre daaxloebiT 50% gaizrdeba. im SemTxvevaSi Tu fasebi bunebriv airze saqarTveloSi mniSvnelovnad dabali iqneba vidre TurqeTSi, zemoTnaxsenebi airze momuSave eleqtrosadguri SeZlebs uzrunvelyos TurqeTi eleqtroenergiiT konkurentunarin fasad. 150 megavat simZlavris radialur-RerZul ciklur sadgurs SeuZlia TveSi gamoimuSaos 100 gigavatsaaTi eleqtroenergia. rTuli sakiTxia SeZlebs Tu ara saqarTvelo momavalSic isargeblos ruseTidan da azerbaijanidan importirebul bunebriv airize xelsayreli fasiT. saqarTveloSi arsebul sxva, airze momuSave eleqtrosadgurebs daaCniaT dabali siTburi warmadoba (daaxloebiT 30%) da amitom ar ZaluwT konkurentunariani eleqtroenergiis warmoeba.

3.8 saqarTvelodan TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportis ekonomiuri mizanSewoniloba

im SemTxvevaSi Tu eleqrtoenergiis Turqi biTumad myidvelebi mzad iqnebian gadaixadon saqarTvelodan eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergiis kilovatsaaTSi 5.7 – 8.3 evrocenti miwodebis dawyebiT 2013 – 2014 wlebSi, realuria varaudi, rom saqarTveloSi hodroeleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobis msxvili proeqtebis umravlesoba, Tu yvela ara, dafinansdeba TurqeTSi eleqtroenergiis eqsportiT miRebuli mogebidan. Tu drois garkveul SualedSi navTobisa da bunebrivi airis fasebi erTi

barelisaTvis 80 aSS dolarze meti iqneba, savaraudoa rom amgvari pirobebis kontraqtebi misaRebi iqneba TurqeTisaTvis, fasebis qveda diapazonze mainc.

TurqeTis mimarTulebiT gadamcemi xazis mSenebloba xels Seuwyobs saqarTveloSi msxvili hidroeleqtrosadgurebis e.w. mwvane samSeneblo ubnebsa da rigi mcire eleqtrosadgurebis mSeneblobaSi 1.3 miliardi evros sididis investiciis Cadebas. TurqeTSi DSI dabegvris arsebobis gamo saqarTvelos samSeneblo ubnebi Turqul ubnebTan SedarebiT sargebloben mniSvnelovani RirebulebiTi upiratesobiT. onis hidroeleqtrosadgurisaTvis gansazRvruli upiratesoba TurqeTSi arsebul analogiur ubanTan SedarebiT Seadgens daaxloebiT 20-30%, TurqeTSi gadacemis Rirebulebis gaTvaliswinebiTac ki. TurqeTis mimarTulebiT gadamcemi xazis gareSe, SezRuduli iqneba saqarTvelos hidroenergetikuli resursebis ganviTarebiT daintereseba, Tu ar moxda samamulo tarifebisa da fasebis zrda iseT mezobel qveynebSi rogoricaa ruseTi, romelic ukve dakavSirebulia saqarTvelosTan maRali Zabvis gadacemaTa xaziT.

SeiZleba wamoiWras gadacemaTa xazis mSeneblobis vadebis sakiTxi. saqarTvelos hidroenergetikuli proeqtebis potenciuri investorebi ar aiReben Tavis Tavze araviTar valdebulebas zemoTxsenebuli proeqtebTan mimarTebaSi vidre ar gacxaddeba gadacemaTa xazis mSeneblobis valdebuleba. mSeneblobisaTvis saxsrebis gamoyofamde, gadacemaTa xazis mSeneblobis damfinanseblebs SeuZliaT gaecnon proeqtebs, romelTa Sesabamisadac aiRes investorebma Tavis Tavze aRniSnuli valdebuleba.

saqarTveloSi sxvadasxva hidroenergetikuli proeqtebis realizaciisaTvis saWiro drois gaTvaliswinebiT (3-5 weli), sasurvelia rom saqarTvelom uzrunvelyos 2013 wlis Semdgom periodSi TurqeTis mimarTulebiT eleqtroenergiis mniSvnelovani raodenobis eqsporti.

TurqeTis gadacemaTa bazris miwvdomadobis arsebobis perspeqtivas eqneba gadamwyveti mniSvneloba saqarTvelos hidroenergetikuli potencialis ganviTarebisaTvis. saqarTvelos teritoriaze erT-erTi msxvili hidroeleqtrosadguris mSeneblobis potenciuri damfinansebeli, samSeneblo ubnis ganviTarebaSi investiciis Cadebamde, savaraudod moiTxovs TurqeTis mimarTulebiT gadacemis simZlavris arsebobis grZelvadian garantiebs, fiqsirebuli fasebis pirobebSi.

cxrili 3-3: gasaSualoebuli saorientacio Rirebulebani (2)

parametri birTvuli(3) CCGT naxSiris mtveri

saqarTvelos hesebi

zRvis qari

investiciis Rirebuleba (4)

2500 487 1500 730-1287 1020

mSeneblobis vadebi Tve

60 36 48 48 18

sicocxlisunarianoba weliwadi

40 25 40 30 20

simZlavris koeficienti

85 85 85 34-65% 28

siTburi simZlavre (5)

33 58 44 - -

Sawvavis Rirebuleba evro/mbTe (6)

0,33 4/8 1,47,/4 - -

organizaciisa da meTodebis Rirebuleba, evro kvt./weliwadi

43 16,7 33,3 13,3 13,3

(2) monacemebi aRebulia msoflio bankis mimoxilvidan, 2008 weli, ivlisi. detalebisaTvis ixileT http://esmap.org/news/featured.asp?id=56 .(3) birTvuli Rirebuleba Seicavs 233 milion evros gankompleqtebisaTvis da 0.7 evros megavatsaaTze, narCenebisaTvis.(4) saerTo kapitaldabandebani finansuri Rirebulebis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe.(5) dabali siTbombadi SesaZlebloba (LHV)(6) milioni britanuli Termuli erTeuli (mbTe) warmoadgens saerTo erTeuls bunebrivi airisaTvis. 1.47 evro/mbTe qvanaxSirisaTvis Seesabameba evro 37/tona. birTvuli sawvavis Rirebuleba Seicavs uranis (evro 20/mbTe), gamdidrebis, gardaqmnisa da warmoebis xarjebs. sawvavis fasi savaraudod weliwadSi 0.5% gaizrdeba.

danarTi 4

finansuri analizi

cxrili 1: eleqtroenergiis eqsportis ZiriTadi scenari, 2013 –2016ww. (gigavatsaaTi)

2013 ian Teb mar apr mai ivn ivl agv seq oqt noe dek

arsebuli hesebis reabilitacia 120.5 127.8 128.6 122.6 149.6 141.0 184.3 179.4 123.7 83.6 108.4 106.1

eleqtroenergiis eqsporti 2007w. 6.7 7.2 9.7 7.1 64.3 68.7 208.4 180.5 40.1 15.9 4.6 12.2

datvirtvis zrda 2013wels 3% weliwadi 162.1 145.9 155.4 141.0 110.0 102.4 109.6 112.4 111.4 123.4 148.1 178.4

xazebis arsebuli simZlavre 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

moTxovna simZlavreze 2013 6.7 7.2 9.7 -11 104 107 283 247 52 15.9 4.6 12.2

eqsportirebuli energia 6.7 7.2 9.7 -11.4 104.0 107.3 283.0 247.5 52.4 15.9 4.6 12.2

2014 ian Teb mar apr mai ivn ivl agv seq oqt noe dek

onis kaskadi 81.8 74.3 85.9 146.4 202.5 182.7 183.1 186.4 126.7 104.7 89.5 86.2namaxvanis kaskadi 70.0 58.7 73.1 253.3 257.0 226.3 171.4 109.8 135.1 163.7 101.4 23.7mtkvris kaskadi 29.1 27.2 33.9 138.2 188.7 112.9 58.1 29.8 23.3 27.0 29.3 29.5

arsebuli hesebis reabilitacia 120.5 127.8 128.6 122.6 149.6 141.0 184.3 179.4 123.7 83.6 108.4 106.1

eleqtroenergiis eqsporti 2007w. 6.7 7.2 9.7 7.1 64.3 68.7 208.4 180.5 40.1 15.9 4.6 12.2datvirTvis zrda 192.0 172.8 184.1 167.0 130.3 121.3 129.8 133.2 131.9 146.2 175.5 211.3

xazebis arsebuli simZlavre 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

moTxovna simZlavreze 6.7 7.2 9.7 501 732 610 675 553 317 15.9 4.6 12.2

eqsportirebuli energia 6.7 7.2 9.7 500.6 730.0 610.3 675.3 552.7 317.0 15.9 4.6 12.2

2015 ian Teb mar apr mai ivn ivl agv seq oqt noe dek

onis kaskadi 81.8 74.3 85.9 146.4 202.5 182.7 183.1 186.4 126.7 104.7 89.5 86.2namaxvanis kaskadi 70.0 58.7 73.1 253.3 257.0 226.3 171.4 109.8 135.1 163.7 101.4 23.7mtkvris kaskadi 29.1 27.2 33.9 138.2 188.7 112.9 58.1 29.8 23.3 27.0 29.3 29.5zeda rionis kaskadi 85.2 71.4 88.9 308.3 312.8 275.3 208.5 133.7 164.4 199.2 123.4 28.8

arsebuli hesebis reabilitacia 120.5 127.8 128.6 122.6 149.6 141.0 184.3 179.4 123.7 83.6 108.4 106.1

eleqtroenergiis eqsporti 2007w. 6.7 7.2 9.7 7.1 64.3 68.7 208.4 180.5 40.1 15.9 4.6 12.2datvirTvis zrda 222.9 200.6 213.7 193.9 151.2 140.7 150.6 154.6 153.1 169.7 203.6 245.2

xazebis arsebuli simZlavre 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

moTxovna simZlavreze 6.7 7.2 9.7 782 1024 866 863 665 460 15.9 4.6 12.2

eqsportirebuli energia 6.7 7.2 9.7 730.0 730.0 730.0 730.0 665.0 460.2 15.9 4.6 12.2

2016 ian Teb mar apr mai ivn ivl agv seq oqt noe dek

onis kaskadi 81.8 74.3 85.9 146.4 202.5 182.7 183.1 186.4 126.7 104.7 89.5 86.2namaxvanis kaskadi 70.0 58.7 73.1 253.3 257.0 226.3 171.4 109.8 135.1 163.7 101.4 23.7mtkvris kaskadi 29.1 27.2 33.9 138.2 188.7 112.9 58.1 29.8 23.3 27.0 29.3 29.5zeda rionis kaskadi 85.2 71.4 88.9 308.3 312.8 275.3 208.5 133.7 164.4 199.2 123.4 28.8

arsebuli hesebis reabilitacia 120.5 127.8 128.6 122.6 149.6 141.0 184.3 179.4 123.7 83.6 108.4 106.1

eleqtroenergiis eqsporti 2007w. 6.7 7.2 9.7 7.1 64.3 68.7 208.4 180.5 40.1 15.9 4.6 12.2datvirTvis zrda 255 229 244 221 173 161 172 177 175 194 233 280

xazebis arsebuli simZlavre 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730 730

moTxovna simZlavreze 6.7 7.2 9.7 754 1002 846 842 643 438 15.9 4.6 12.2

eqsportirebuli eleqtroenergia 6.7 7.2 9.7 730.0 730.0 730.0 730.0 643.0 438.4 15.9 4.6 12.2

cxrili 2. ZiriTadi winamZRvrebi

GEL/EUR kursi 2.20mSeneblobis dasawyisi

weli 2010

eqspluotaciis dasawyisi

weli 2013

saeqspluotacio periodi

weli 30

proeqtis Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba

milioni evro 229.00

proeqtis saamortizacio Rirebuleba

milioni evro 229.00

organizebisa da meTodebis wliuri Rirebuleba

% Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba

1.00%

organizebisa da meTodebis eskalaciis koeficienti

% 5.00%

amortizirebis koeficienti

% 16.00%

reinvestireba milioni evro 30.00reinvestirebis TariRi

weli 2027

CO2-is Semcireba kg/megavatsaaTze 269.1

karbokrediti evro/tona 0.00Kfw sesxi milioni evro 112.00

EIB sesxi milioni evro 50.00

EBRD sesxi milioni evro 58.00

adgilobrivi sesxi milioni evro 0.00saerTo vali milioni evro 220.00aqciebi milioni evro 9.93WACC % 4.81%

ROR aqciebis mixedviT

% 10.00%

korporatiuli saSemosavlo gadasaxadi

% 15.00%

danarTi 5

proeqtis grafiki

xangrZlivoba

daswyisi

dasruleba

precendenti

1 gadacemaTa Savi zRvis regionaluri proeqti

2 sesxis damtkiceba3 angariSis proeqtis warmodgena4 Semfasebeli misia5 SeTanxmeba dafinansebis Sesaxeb6 sesxis damtkiceba7 ZalaSi Sesuli sesxi8 ZiriTadi SeTanxmeba9 teqnikuri davalebis momzadeba10 ZiriTadi SeTanxmebis tenderis

konsultanti11 ZiriTadi SeTanxmebis tenderis

gamocxadeba12 mimoxilva da analizi13 angariSi ZiriTadi SeTanxmebis

Sesaxeb14 proeqtis konsultantis daniSvna15 teqnikuri davalebis momzadeba16 tenderis konsultanti17 tenderis Sefaseba18 konsultantis daniSvna19 moijareebis daniSvna20 specifikaciebisa da satendero

dokumentaciis momzadeba21 satendero Senatanebi22 tenderis Sefaseba23 kontraqt(eb)is damtkiceba24 gadacemaTa xazebi25 trasis mimoxilva26 anZebis adgilmdebareobis dadgena

da daproeqteba 27 damuSaveba28 samuSaoebi fundamentTan

29 instalacia da dalageba30 eqspluotaciaSi Seyvana31 qvesadgurebi32 daproeqteba33 damuSaveba34 dadgma35 montaJi36 eqspluotaciaSi Seyvana37 makonvertirebeli sadguri38 daproeqteba39 damuSaveba40 montaJi41 eqspluotaciaSi Seyvana42 gamosacdeli periodi43 samsaxuris vada

danarTi 7

sistemis danakargebi

danakargebi saqarTvelos 500/220 kilovoltian sistemaSi megavat %, 2013 weli

reJimi gardabani-axalcixe-zestafonis 500 kilovoltiani xazis gareSe

gardabani-axalcixe-zestafonis 500 kilovoltiani xazis CaTvliT

gardabani-axalcixe-zestafonis 500 kilovoltiani xazis CaTvliT + 700 megavati tranziti azerbaijanidan TurqeTSi

reJimi 1 XII-I Tveebi zamTris

piki

28,5 /1,337 26,1 /1,223 34,2 /1,577

reJimi 2 II -III Tveebi

17,5 /1,018 16,4 /0,955 24,4 /1,442

reJimi 3 V Tve

39,3 /2,227 31,4 /1,78725,5 /1,60

eqsporti baTumidan TurqeTamde 150 megavatireJimi 4 VI-VIII Tveebi

zafxulis piki

33 /1,961 26,8 /1,598 26,4 /1,443eqsporti baTumidan TurqeTamde 150 megavati

reJimi 5 X Tve

21,7 /1,253 21,2 /1,224 22,2 /1,38

eqsporti baTumidan TurqeTamde 150 megavatireJimi 6

XII-I Tveebi zamTris

piki

7,4 /0,603 6,5 /0,53 16,2 /1,26

reJimi 7 VI-VIII Tveebi

zafxulis piki

12,8 /1,227 10,7 /1.02810,8 /1,256eqsporti baTumidan TurqeTamde 150 megavati