Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Serhat ŞENSOYSerhat ŞENSOYEngineerEngineer
Climatology DivisionClimatology Division
3rd Workshop on the Use of Satellite Data for Climate ApplicationsZagreb, Croatia, 03-07 November 2008
Climate system is comprised by the complicated interactions among the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere, the surface lithosphere and the biosphere.
Energy from the sun drives the earth’s weather and climate, and heats the earth’s surface; in turn, the earth radiates energy back into space. The greenhouse effect is a necessary phenomenon. Without it, earth temperature would be -18°C. But the greenhouse gases trap some of the outgoing energy and maintain Earth’s temperature 15°C. However, too many greenhouse gases could increase in mean temperatures
Turkey is located in subtropical zone It has diverse climatic features; but mainly Mediterranean type several climatic sub-regions appear
(Black-Sea, Mediterranean, Continental)
Climate of Turkey
What determines climate of Turkey ? -Geographical Location and General Circulation Patterns
Being a transition zone for air masses and fronts (polar & tropical) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Physical Factors
complex topographic features high elevation and orientation of mountain chains distance to sea (continentality)
A big difference is observed in the total rainfall between coastal and inland stations, are compared
1. Monthly climate assessments Anomaly is the differences from normal and it is determining by using Z standardized normal distribution (Z=(X-Xmean) /STD). If Z < -0.97 it means that this station value is below normal, if Z is between -0.97 to 0.97, near normal, and if Z > 0.97 it means this value above normal. Calculations have been done by using Excel and ArcGIS is using for interpolation and monitoring purposes
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE COMPARISON
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
TE
MP
. °C
71-00-Norm 2007 2008
2. Seasonal climate assessments
SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE COMPARISON
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
TEM
P. °C
71-00-Norm 2007 2008
Seasonal Rainfall Distribution
3. Annual climate assessments
*This study had been an input in NOAA NCDC Annual Statement
4. Heating and cooling degree-daysHeating and cooling degree-day is the unit which useful to indicate how much time cold/warm in the day.
In the year 2007, heating degree days has been decreased except S. Anatolia Region; while cooling degree days has been increased all over Turkey with parallel to the increased temperature.
Formula:HDD = (18 °C - Tm) x dCDD = (Tm - 22) x d
where; Tm = daily mean temp. d= n. of days
5. Climate classification The purpose of classification is to organize a set of data or information about something to effectively communicate it in an informative way. In this study, Aydeniz, Erinç, De Martonne, Trewartha and Thornthwaite method have been used for Turkey climate classification.
CLIMATE DIAGRAM of TURKEY
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
(mm
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
(°C
)
Precip. Temp.
6. Climate Atlas of Turkey
9. N. of days with…
10. TREND ANALYSESTurkey precipitation's trend - TSMS y = -0,2917x + 656,92
R2 = 0,0079
400
500
600
700
800
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
mm
precipitation Doğrusal (precipitation)
Turkiye ortalama sıcaklık trendiTurkey mean temperature's trend - TSMS
Trend y = 0.0064x + 13.474
R2 = 0.0422
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
19
41
19
43
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
me
an
te
mp
era
ture
°C
Ortalama sıcaklık Doğrusal (Ortalama sıcaklık)
Turkey mean temperature for the 1971-2000 climatic periods is about 13°C and has 0.64°C/100 years increasing trend.
Annual average precipitation of Turkey for the 1971-2000 climatic periods is about 640mm and has 29mm/100 years decreasing trend.
prec.p.
• RClimDex produced on behalf of the ET by Xuebin Zhang from Met. Service of Canada http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/
Indices software
11. Climate Change Detection, Monitoring & Indices
Indices Results
Trends in N. of summer days (a), tropical nights (b), warm nights(c) and warm days (d)
Contributionto the GlobalIndicesAnalyses
12. Extreme event monitoring
Small changes in the mean can cause a large change in the likelihood of extreme event.
Extreme events vs. Temp. Anomaly
The highest precipitation amount by measurement at standart times in Turkey.
Heat Index Formula: (HI) = -42.379 + 2.04901523(T) + 10.14333127(RH) - 0.22475541(T)(RH) - ((6.83783 x 10-3) (T2) - ((5.481717 x 10-2)(RH2) + ((1.22874 x 10-3)(T2)(RH)) + ((8.5282 x 10-4)(T)(RH2)) – ((1.99 x 10-6)(T2)(RH2))
13. Heat Index Calculation& Monitoring
14. PRECIS REGIONAL MODEL’S OUTPUTS FOR TURKEY
15. To follow climate change information from IPCC
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. Multi model projections show increasing precipitation in the north latitude but decreasing in the Mediterranean.
Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change
Precipitation Projection, IPCC, AR4
Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century. If the PDF is widespread, it means too many extreme event could be occurred.
Temperature Projection, IPCC, AR4
