Service économique et statistique Alain SAUVANT MINISTERIO DE FOMENTO CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS Y EXPERIMENTACIÓN DE OBRAS PÚBLICAS DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE PLANIFICACIÓN

Serviceéconomique et statistique

Alain SAUVANT

MINISTERIODE FOMENTO

CENTRO DE ESTUDIOSY EXPERIMENTACIÓNDE OBRAS PÚBLICAS

DIRECCIÓN GENERALDE PLANIFICACIÓN YCOORDINACIÓN TERRITORIAL

SECRETARÍA DE ESTADO DE INFRAESTRUCTURAS Y PLANIFICACIÓN

Encuentro:

“Intermodalidad

de viajeros”Interurban passenger transport

planification

Alain SauvantMadrid, 4 de noviembre de 2004

Service économiqueet statistique

Interurban passenger transport planification

An overview of methods currently used in France


Alain SAUVANT

Outline of presentation

Multimodal national monitoring scheme

Multimodal strategic corridors and nodes monitoring scheme

2025 traffic forecasts

2025 infrastructure maps


Alain SAUVANT

National monitoring scheme

To follow aggregate transport policy relevant indicators in France

Such as national road traffic, rail transport, prices, quality of service, modal split or the environment

Passenger and freight

With « out of track » indicators


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Passenger cars (veh.km on all road networks)

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Cars

all

netw

ork

s (

Bill

ion v

eh.k

m)

Real

Central forecast

Model on real data

Draft document


Alain SAUVANT

Road transport CO2 emissions

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Em

issio

ns C

O2 R

oad (

MtC

O2)

Real

Central forecast

Model on real data

Draft document


Alain SAUVANT

Strategic corridors and nodes monitoring scheme

To follow transport policy relevant indicators in a given corridor or node in France

Passenger and freight

Such as traffic, prices, quality of service, environment, safety, accessibility


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Modal split in 2000


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Frequencies by mode from Paris


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Access to airports and TGV stations in Paris


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Access to European capitals by air from the French regions


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Punctuality from Paris (rail+air)


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Passengers per plane or TGV


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Noise levels at CDG airport


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Passenger flows across the Pyrenees


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Road accidents and fatalities


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Cross-channel passenger flows


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Passenger flows and modal split


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Number of trains (passenger+freight)


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Interurban NOx emissions (passenger +freight)


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Journey times across France


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Access to major European capitals


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Quality of access to major road network nodes


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Quality of access to major railway stations


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Quality of access to airports


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Quality of access (rail+air)


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2025 Traffic forecasts

Integrated multimodal approach

Econometric models

Passenger and goods traffic

Environment

To be used for project appraisal (rate of return evaluation) in all modes


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Macroeconomic and transport policy context

GDP growth in France = 1,9 % per yearAgeing populationOil price : 35 $/baril in 2025Exchange rate in 2025 : 1€ = 1$Increase of passenger diesel oil prices


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Towards smaller road traffic growth

% average annual growth 1980 - 2002 2002 – 2025

National road network

3,5 % 1,8 %

Out of which : Toll motorways

6,2 % 2,8 %


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Slower domestic air transport growth

% average annual growth

1980 - 2002 2002 - 2025

Domestic passenger air transport

4,4 % 1,7 %

Modélisation logistique de la diffusion du transport aérien intérieur

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Rapport trafic aérien / dépenses de consommation des ménages (réel)

Modèle logistique


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Continuing passenger rail transport growth

Average annual growth

in %

Pass-km 1980 - 2002 2002 - 2025

Rail 1,5 % 1,8 %

Out of which : TGV (high speed)

ns > 2,6 %

Around 1500 additional km of high speed lines, stable rail prices, increase of taxes on passenger diesel


Alain SAUVANT

Public sector financing needs by modes per year

Public investments per mode (main interurban terrestrial) annual averages

in France (excluding user funding)

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

1989 to 1993 1994 to 1999 2000 to 2002 Estimationneeds 2003-

2020

Bil

lio

n e

uro

s (

cu

rre

nt)

Total Roads

Total Rail

Total Waterways

Real Needs

Source : from Audit IGF/CGPC


Alain SAUVANT

State funding needsInvestments (annual averages) in France : State funding

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

1989 to 1993 1994 to 1999 2000 to 2002 Estimationneeds 2003-

2020

Bil

lio

n e

uro

s (

cu

rren

t)

Total Roads

Total Rail

Total Waterways

Real Needs

Source : from Audit IGF/CGPC


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New infrastructure plans

Common standards for all project evaluations in all modes

Instruction de Robien – Boiteux commission report

A mix of project evaluation and land planning considerations


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Government infrastructure plan decisions

CIADT of december 2003

Infrastructure plan of 2025

Established a new agency for multimodal funding


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National road infrastructures by 2025


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Other terrestrial modes’ infrastructures by 2025


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Outlook

Towards strategic corridors and nodes 2025 traffic and environment forecasts

Towards an urban transport and territories monitoring scheme


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Link to web sites of monitoring schemes

http://www.equipement.gouv.fr/statistiques/analyses/etudes/transpor/indicateurs2004/somm_indicateurs2004.htm

http://www.equipement.gouv.fr/statistiques/analyses/etudes/etudes_.htm

Strategic nodes and corridors monitoring schemes

National monitoring scheme

Documents

Service économique et statistique Alain SAUVANT MINISTERIO DE FOMENTO CENTRO DE ESTUDIOS Y EXPERIMENTACIÓN DE OBRAS PÚBLICAS DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE PLANIFICACIÓN