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    'I 11 lntelliaeace ~i Directorate of

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    Soviet Satellite Defense Against the US Miniature Vehicle Antisatellite Weapon

    . An latelllaenee Assessmeat ~

    APPROVED FOR RREASE \0 5-ff\ C\(.1

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    Soviet Satellite Defense Against the US Miniature Vehicle Antisatellite '_Veapon.

    The Soviets will have only a limited capability to defend their satellites a2ainst an attack by the air-launched miniature vehicle (ALMV), the US antisatellite (ASA T) weapon system that is scheduled to be deployed in 1987; The ASAT weapon will be capable of attacking low-altitude satellites, including most of the Soviet reconnaissance satellites. Once the SovietS detect an attack, the most likely tactic they would to defend

    . their-satellites is maneuverinR to avoid interception,

    ,technological indicate a iilOdeiiie .. , , __ ,,.._ ___ ..,

    '.. develop additional ~~~~~~~~iiiiilil.i~ ~by the late these nu~rm1~ \ ~obability of satellite survival, they can only be

    implemented after major technical problems have been solved. The weight of countermeasure packages added_ to present satellites probably would

    , c; require .the use ora new launch vehicle, and the SoViets have a suitable '': launch vehiCle under development. Alternatively, the inay choose to

    :incorporate countermeasures in

    _ we that the Soviets may attempt to increase ?maneuver-caPabilities by increasing propellant capacities, we see no new :-.~- sp~cecraft designs include this or other modifications for defensive

    W~ believe .the Soviets know enough about the ASA T system to develop countermeasures designed to increase the survivability of their satellites. Open-source reports about the ALMV contain data on the probable Soviet target satellites, physical dimensions of the ALMV, main components of the system, initial basing of the F-15s modified for ALMV launch, prime contractors and budget, and even a detailed design drawing ofthe ALMV. We believe this information would allow the Soviets to model the ASA T system accurately enough to predict at'ack geometries and to identify threatened satellite targets during an attack .

    iii ==-s~p/~"'~' 198J

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    1 Contents

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    Summary iii The Air-Launched Miniature Vehicle Projlram

    Soviet Knowledie of the ASAT System 2 Soviet WaminK and Countermeasure Command 4

    Possible Countermeasures 5 Maneuverin& 5

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    Soviet Satellite Defense Against the US Miniature Vehicle Antisatellite Weapon.

    The Air-Launched Miniature Vehicle Program

    The US air-launched miniature vehicle (ALMV) is part of a direct-ascent, hit-to-lcill antisatellite (ASA T)

    . weapon that is scheduled to be deployed in 1987. The weapon consists of the ALMV payload and a two-stage booster. It is carried to launch point by an F-15 aircraft that has been modified to carry cooling and computer interface support equipment on a pallet in

    the ammunition bay and the ASA T weapon beneath the fuselage. (s)

    ... , , In a typical intercept plan, the F-15 carries the ASA T weapon to an altitude of about 13 lcilometers (km); then it performs a supersonic dash and ejects the ASA T "'""""""

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    A larg.eamountof open-source informatio~ on the ALMV and its subsystems is available to the Soviets, and they have recently published a detailed descrip-. tion of the ASAT S}stem in one of their military _journals. The major source of information is Aviation

    -~~:~:;~ ____ Wrek and Space Technology, along with technical ''":.~ journals. Congressional and Defense Department re-

    ports. and Jane's Weapons Almanac. Information ..

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    about the can tractors, ASA T mission. physical di--mensions (inchidine detailed desiin drawings), sen- -sors, basing, and probable Soviet targets is available in these "pul)Jicatidhs. The' esthnated budget, the in-

    .. tended date for initial operational capability, and the _. C1 (command, control, and communications) and

    tracking support provided by NORAD also have been reported. Proposed plans to update tracking and tar- geting capabilities of radars have also been

    published.

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    Exemptions: (J,)(J) (h'V ( \fl --l -~ ...... /-

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    Soviet w"arnina and. Cowitermeasure (:ommand .... :- .-. .. - t-~-- ..

    Defensive Countermeasures again~t an att~ck on an . individual satellite will depend on the Soviets' capabil ity to obtain a warning of the attack and direct the satellite's response. A control center may receive the warning and relay commands to the satellite; or the satellite could be equipped with onboard sensors to detect the attack and could be programed to initiate defensive options.. _ _ _ _ __ _ ________ _

    Once a warning has been received and the decision to imple111~'!t a ~!lntermeasure has been made, the new programing data must be sent to the satellites.

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    Percent 1-10 ,; i

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    40-60 60-90 90-1000'

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    .. :-~. Thi:-&;vieti have at' l~sf.rilrie-JX>ssr6it"ruture optic~~ .. for defensea,ainst the ALMV .

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    The maneuver capabilities of Soviet satellites could be incr~ased by using larger space launch boosters, high-er energy propellants, lighter subsystems, or increased satellite propellant

    RORSATs and EORSA Ts to be deployed by 1990, and they might have increased maneuver capabilities.

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  • : Although-Soviet knowledge of the ALMV system probably is not complete enough to calculate the exact magnitude of maneuve-r necessary to avoid an ASAT

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