83
珠三角西部的發展 及其與香港的合作前景 大珠三角商務委員會 珠三角西部發展專責小組 2006 8 1

Study Report on the Development of Western Prd Chi

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

2006 8

1

1. 2. ................................................................... 1 ............................ 22.1 ....................................................2 2.2 ................4 2.3 .........................6 2.4 ...........................................8

3.

................................................................. 103.1 ............................................... 10 3.2 + ..................... 10 3.3 ...................................... 10

4.

...................................... 194.1 ......................................... 19 4.2 .................................................. 19 4.3 .................................................. 21 4.4 ............................................ 22

5.

............................................ 315.1 ....................... 31 5.2 ............................................... 32 5.3 ....................... 33 5.4 ......................................... 34 5.5 ............................................ 36

6.

................................... 376.1 ......................................... 37 6.2 ............................................... 41 6.3 .................................................. 48 6.4 ..................................................... 49

7.

................................... 557.1 ............................................... 55 7.2 .................................................. 59 7.3 ......................................... 61 7.4 ............................................ 63

2

8.

............................. 668.1 ................................... 66 8.2 .................................................. 66 8.3 .................................................. 67 8.4 .................................................. 68 8.5 .................................................. 68 8.6 .................................................. 69

9.

....................................................................... 70

.............................................................................. 74 1(2004-2020)- ..................................................................... 74 2(2004-2020)- ......................................................... 75 3 ................................ 76 4 ................................... 77 5(2002 ) ................... 77 6 ................................... 78

.................................................................. 80

3

1.

1

2.

2.1 9 ()( )( 1) 2003 2004 (2004-2020) () () ( ) 20037 () (Michael J. Enright) () ( )1 ( ) 2 3 4

1

2

3

4

Michael J. Enright, Edith E. Scott ( ( ) , 2005) ( 2004) ( 2002) 20037 20037

2

() () 1 (2004-2020) () Michael J. Enright

3

2.2 ( 2) 1980 GDP GDP 1988 GDP 2005GDP3 19802005GDP 700GDP 80 2GDPGDP () () 1980 * * * 58 17 11 86 3 7 8 18 3 7 19 29 1990 320 137 57 514 172 65 49 286 41 51 101 193 2002 3204 1329 294 4826 2970 1187 527 4683 409 470 566 1445 10954 2003 3759 1578 328 5665 3586 1453 586 5625 477 572 618 1667 12957 2004 4451 1918 391 6759 4282 1806 686 6775 552 704 696 1952 15485 2005 5116 2380 454 7949 4927 2182 804 7913 635 818 802 2254 18117

133 993 *

2006

4

GDP (3)3 (2005) () GDP() GDP() 994 5116 -- 534 2380 41031 337 454 -- 701 4927 60507 645 2182 -- 322 804 21911 124 635 45258 236 818 396 802

33631 19600

() 371 131 20 412 104 35 49 54 42 26 9 6 30 15 10 7 7 6 () * 6032 4740 320 9568 3813 1412 1562 2217 1443 () * 500 2006

( 4) 4 (2005) () 26 9 6 42 30 22.9% 8.0% 5.2% 36.1% 25.6% (%) () 267 171 14 452 1015 (%) 11.7% 7.5% 0.6% 19.9% 44.7%

5

15 10 55 7 7 6 19

12.7% 9.0% 47.3% 5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 16.6%

409 107 1531 108 122 60 290

18.0% 4.7% 67.4% 4.7% 5.4% 2.7% 12.8% 100%

116 100% 2273 2006

4 2005 16.6% 47.3% 2005 67.4% 12.8%19%

2.3 3

6

5 25 " " 3(3) 2002 43.4%47.6% 22.0% 18.6% 6

5

6

20042

7

2.4 2.4.1 1990 / 5+2 7

2.4.2 25 () 7

8

8

8

2005

9

3.

3.1 (19791998)(GDP)14% 4.41992 GDP

3.2 +

3.3 CEPA 2003

10

20049 (2004-2020) ( ) 9

3.3.1

2003 10

9

10

11

3.3.2 2004 2 2004 9 ( ) 1994

12

3.3.3 40 5 000 20 10%6% 80% 43%

13

3.3.4 325

14

( 123)

3.3.5 6

15

( 4 )

3.3.6 6 3

16

, (6) (6)

17

18

4.

4.1 CEPA

4.2 4.2.1 25 20 Weng(2002) 1989-1997 11

11

Weng Q, 2002, Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using statellite remote sensing, GIS and stochastic modelling, Journal of Environmental Management, 64, 273-284.

19

4.2.2 2 0 % 3 0 % 12

4.2.3

4.2.4

12

( 2004) ( 5 )

20

4.2.5

4.3 4.3.1 25 105 3

4.3.2

21

4.3.3

4.4 4.4.1 19791980 1980 302005142

22

5 30 2 40 3 9 (PTA) (BP) PTA 2004

23

13 50% 500 863 10 13

11

24

CEPA

4.4.2 50%

25

1/4 TCL 50%

4.4.3 95 6226 9 541 410(2005)3 100

26

50 73 45% 40% 45% ( ) 125 572

4.4.4 3 848.48 50

27

100 ()( ) 20 17 3 60% 300

28

15% 16 5 ()()() ()()

4.4.5 8 () 100 200 142 70

29

50010 42 50100

30

5.

5.1 198019901997 2004 CEPA ( )1970 CEPA 70%

31

5.2 2004 46.8% 31.0% 22.2% ( 5) 55.3% 29.1% 15.6% ( 6)5*(2004) % 21.0% 23.5% 1.0% 45.5% 13.5% 11.8% 3.4% 28.7% () % % % 2079 23.6% 1120 16.5% 458 26.2% 2991 33.9% 929 13.7% 158 9.0% 92 1.0% 58 0.9% 27 1.5% 5162 505 415 131 1051 58.6% 5.7% 4.7% 1.5% 11.9% 2107 1495 1346 332** 3173 31.0% 22.0% 19.8% 4.9% 46.8% 643 355 288 92** 735 36.7% 20.3% 16.4% 5.3% 42.0%

3657 4078 177 7912 2355 2049 593 4997

847 4.9% 254 2.9% 453 6.7% 140 8.0% 2542 14.6% 1585 18.0% 787 11.6% 170 9.7% 1092 6.3% 763 8.7% 266 3.9% 63 3.6% 4481 25.8% 2602 29.5% 1506 22.2% 373 21.3% 17390 100.0% 8815 100.0% 6786 100.0% 1751 100.0% * 500 ** 2003 2004 2005

32

6 (2004) 4433.57 3331.31 146.02 7910.9 6509.27 2583.22 970.33 % 20.5 % 15.4 % 0.7 % 36.6 % 30.1 % 11.9 % 4.5 % ()( ) % % 1432.92 22.2 % 1172.29 15.1 % 1959.44 30.4 % 1065.86 13.8 % 59.35 0.9 % 18.69 0.2 % 3451.71 1358.03 373.45 44.21 1775.69 270.86 614.53 342.52 1227.91 53.5 % 21.0 % 5.8 % 0.7 % 27.5 % 4.2 % 9.5 % 5.3 % 19.0 % 2256.84 2472.08 1325.58 481.67** 4279.33 332.92 726.87 148.46 1208.25 29.1 % 31.9 % 17.1 % 6.2 % 55.3 % 4.3 % 9.4 % 1.9 % 15.6 % 100.0 % % 1828.36 25.0 % 306.01 4.2 % 38.19 0.5 % 2172.56 29.7 %

2679.16 36.6 % 884.19 12.1 % 365.04** 5.0 % 3928.39 658.88 353.31 201.02 1213.21 7314.16 53.7 % 9.0 % 4.8 % 2.7 % 16.6 % 100.0 %

10062.82 46.5 % 1262.67 1694.71 692.00 3649.38 5.8 % 7.8 % 3.2 % 16.9 %

21623.1 100.0 % 6455.31 100.0 % 7744.42 ** 2003 2004 2005

5.3 7 2000 18.8% 2004 25.0% 2000 34.9%200439.3% 20 90

33

95% (, 2003) 14 7() 18.8 % 3.5 % 23.0 % 2.6 % 34.9 % 6.3 % 39.1 % 4.5 % 2004 2005 2000 2002 2003 2004 919.19 781.87 1184.58 1026.34 1528.48 1306.74 1915.69 1655.60 495.09 425.27 696.21 589.79 953.73 793.03 1217.21 1048.09 172.95 27.00 272.14 26.83 364.85 27.80 478.09 28.77 23.9 % 38.3 % 2.1 % 3.5 % 25.0 % 39.3 % 1.7 % 2.7 %

5.4 1987 1997 70%14

34

30% 24( ) 1 2.5 ( 8) 80% (9)8 1 35 2 35 4 15 45 1 10 3 30 1 10 1 30 2 30

1 ( 2004)

35

9 / 38% 91% 23% 4% 14% 2% 25% 3%

59% 14% 8% 19% (2003 7 )

5.5 , 30 3

36

6.

6.1

6.1.1

25 80% 80 2002GDP 13,5022003 GDP 2005 GDP 20,000 GDPGDP80% 25

37

6.1.2

15

15

2005 1 4 20052(2005-2010)20062

38

16 90 17 5 2010GDP 45% CEPA ( )

16

17

2002 5,232.1 13.3% 1878.0 13.2% 2,346.6 16.9% 44.5 55.52003 47.752.3200444.056.0 20036,441.137.1% 23.5%481.7 55.6% GDP 1995 3.8%200311.5%2004 26100167

39

6.1.3 2005 18

18

1/32/32/3 (2005-2010) (2005-2010) (2005-2010)(20052010)(2005-2010) (2005-2010)

40

( )

6.2

6.2.1

41

()

6.2.2

42

6.2.3 1990 10 19957200417 10 1995 2004 9 6 24 2004 300 200 199521.55%200465.23% 1995 78.46% 2004 34.77%

43

1995 82.42%200458.43% 200551 2010 71 2015 89 2005 55%201035%201531% 2010 ( )

6.2.4 5 ( ) 20 19981632005 340 70% (30%)

44

( 80-90%) 2004 95% 2004 198 2004102010 5200 250 UPS FedEx 2010302015 252006

45

60 250 90% 6% 5 200682

46

6.2.5 2006-2010 4,320 62 1 2020 -()-( ) --- -- - 2008

47

40 2020 19 2006 6 1 (2004-2030) 2030 7 000

6.3 19

2004 6 2 , http://www.southcn.com/panprd/news/deep/200406020279.htm

48

( 6.2)

6.4 6.4.1 2005 ( ) 20 (2010 ) GDP 45% 2020 GDP 5 0 % 21 5 20 21

(outsourcing) 2003 GDP 38.4% 43.5% 53.9% 39.9%

49

6.4.2 ( 6.2 )

50

6.4.3 2004 32 1/3

51

50 20 90 20%30% 2 000 1 000 10 1 100 200 1000 3 36

52

3 300 70 CEPA

53

6.4.4 CEPA

54

7.

7.1

7.1.1 () 25 ( ) ()

55

7.1.2 CEPA CEPA ()

56

( )

7.1.3

57

( )

58

7.2 7.2.1 --- 15-30 1-2

59

( -)

7.2.2 300 200 100 5

7.2.3

60

5-10 20 35%

7.3

61

22

22

20059

62

,

7.4 Center of Education Excellence 23 9

23

20051

63

WTOCEPA CEPA

64

65

8.

8.1 CEPA ( )

8.2 5

66

8.3 CEPA

67

8.4 CEPA

8.5 1,920 5 4 400

68

8.6

69

9.

1970 2004 GDP 2005 GDP 22,000 25 ( )

70

() ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

71

/ /

( ) ( )

; ; ; ;

72

73

1(2004-2020)

(2004-2020)

74

2(2004-2020)

(2004-2020)

75

3 10 325

(2004-2020)

76

4

(2004-2020)

5(2002) 3000-5000 3000-5000 3000-5000 3000-5000 2000-3000 3000-5000 3000-5000 3000-5000 () 1500-2000 1000-1400 1500-2000 800-1200 2000-3000 1500-2000 2000-3000 800-1500 1500-2000 1000-1500 1500-2000 800-1500 1500-2000 1000-1500 1500-2000 1000-1500 600-800 400-800 800-900 500-800 500-700 400-600 600-800 600-800

http //www.cggu angzhou.org /

77

6

78

A B A B

(2004-2020)

79

1.

20037

2.

20041

3.

2002

4.

20029

5.

20037

6.

( )20053

7.

Michael J. Enright Edith E. Scott () 2005

8.

2003

9.

(20042020)20047

10. 2000-2004 11. 20038 12. 20053 13. 20002001200320042005

80