SUMAR / CONTENTS 11/2013 - · PDF fileAcademia de Studii Economice Bucure ... România – un studiu de caz Drd. ... este calculată conform formulei CPI-100

Revista Română de Statistică nr. 11 / 2013

SUMAR / CONTENTS 11/2013

REVISTA ROMÂNĂ DE STATISTICĂ www.revistadestatistica.ro

SUPORT EMPIRIC PRIVIND TEORIA CANTITATIVĂ A BANILOR: ROMÂNIA – UN STUDIU DE CAZ 3

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY: ROMANIA – A CASE STUDY 12

Drd. Alexandru PĂTRUŢI Drd. Alina TĂTULESCU Academia de Studii Economice Bucureşti

CONSUMUL DE VIN: O ANALIZĂ A PIEŢEI DIN SICILIA 20 THE CONSUMPTION OF WINE: A ANALYSIS OF MARKET

CONDUCTED IN SICILY 21 Maurizio LANFRANCHI Carlo GIANNETTO University of Messina, Italy

OCAZII DE CARIERE ÎN TURISMUL GLOBAL ŞI DILEME ALE ÎNVAŢĂMÂNTULUI SUPERIOR DE TURISM ÎN PAKISTAN 32

GLOBAL TOURISM CAREERS OPPORTUNITIES AND DILEMMAS FACING HIGHER EDUCATION IN TOURISM IN PAKISTAN 33

Dr. Anwar Ali Shah G. Syed Pro-Vice Chancellor-MBBS-Campus Dadu University of Sindh Assistant Professor Asad Raza Abdi Assistant Professor Fayyaz Chandio SALU-Khairpur Mirs Assistant Professor Faiz M. Shaikh SZABAC-Dokri-Larkana-Sindh-Pakistan

O PROBLEMĂ DE TIP LAPLACE PENTRU LATICI REGULATE CU OBSTRUCŢII SECŢIUNI CIRCULARE 45

A LAPLACE TYPE PROBLEM FOR REGULAR LATTICES WITH CIRCULAR SECTION OBSTACLES 53

D. BARILLA A. FEMINÓ A. PUGLISI E. SAITTA Universitatea din Messina B. TOADER Universitatea Creştină “Dimitrie Cantemir”

REZULTATELE RECENSĂMÂNTULUI POPULAŢIEI ŞI AL LOCUINŢELOR (RPL 2011) 61

Romanian Statistical Review nr. 11 / 20132

Revista Română de Statistică, editată de Institutul Naţional de Statistică, este unica publicaţie de specialitate din ţara noastră, în domeniul teoriei şi practicii statistice. Articolele publicate se adresează oamenilor de ştiinţă, cercetătorilor, precum şi utilizatorilor de date şi informaţii statistice interesaţi în lărgirea şi aprofundarea orizontului cunoaşterii prin asimilarea noţiunilor de specialitate, abordarea de noi lucrări şi studii de referinţă pe care să le aplice ulterior în domeniul în care îşi desfăşoară activitatea. Prin prezentarea unor lucrări ştiinţifi ce şi de promovare a culturii statistice, necesară în economia de piaţă funcţională, revista se doreşte a fi un spaţiu propice schimbului de idei şi, totodată, o provocare. Orice studiu sau opinie care poate contribui la dezvoltarea gradului de înţelegere a statisticii ca ştiinţă este binevenit.

The Romanian Statistical Review, issued by the National Institute of Statistics, is in our country specialising in the fi eld of statistical theory and practice. The articles published are addressed to the scientists, researchers and statistical data and information users interested in broadening and deepening their horizon of knowledge by acquiring specialised notions and coming into contact with new papers and reference studies they can later apply in their own fi eld. Through the presentation of papers that are scientifi c in nature and that promote statistical culture, which is necessary in a functional market economy, the Review aims to be a favourable space for exchange of ideas and a challenge at the same time. Any study or opinion that can contribute to the development of the degree understanding statistics as a science is welcome.

La Revue Roumaine de Statistique, éditée par l’Institut National de la Statistique, est la seule publication de spécialité de notre pays dans le domaine de la théorie et de la pratique statistique. Les articles y étant publiés s’adressent aux scientifi ques, aux chercheurs, ainsi qu’aux utilisateurs de données et d’informations statistiques, intéressés d’élargir leur horizon de connaissances avec des notions de spécialité et de nouveaux travaux et études de référence qu’ils peuvent appliquer ultérieurement dans leurs domaines d’activité. Par la présentation de certains ouvrages scientifi ques et de promotion de la culture statistique nécessaires dans l’économie de marché fonctionnelle, la Revue se veut être un espace propice à l’échange d’idées et en même temps une provocation. Toute étude et opinion qui pourraient contribuer au développement du degré de compréhension de la statistique en tant que science sont bienvenues.

Revista Română de Statistică nr. 11 / 2013 3

Suport empiric privind Teoria Cantitativă a banilor: România – un studiu de caz Drd. Alexandru PĂTRUŢI email: [email protected] Drd. Alina TĂTULESCU email: [email protected] Academia de Studii Economice Bucureşti

Abstract

Teoria cantitativă a banilor este una dintre cele mai importante secţiuni ale teoriei monetare. Cu toate acestea, din ce în ce mai mulţi economişti îi contestă actualmente validitatea. În acest articol vom încerca să ilustrăm empiric concluziile teoriei cantitative a banilor. Vom argumenta faptul că variaţia indicelui preţurilor de consum (IPC) din România din ultimii şase ani poate fi explicată în totalitate prin variaţia masei monetare. Cuvinte cheie: teoria cantitativă a banilor; masa monetară; regresie; indicele preţurilor de consum (IPC); putere de cumpărare.

1. Introducere Teoria cantitativă a banilor este probabil una dintre cele mai vechi propoziţii teoretice ale gândirii economice moderne. Unele dintre primele formulări ale acesteia, enunţate de către fi losoful englez John Locke [1], datează din secolul 17. La baza teoriei cantitive a banilor se afl ă ideea că preţul banilor (i.e. puterea de cumpărare a unităţii monetare) este determinat de intersecţia cererii şi ofertei de bani. După cum explică L. Von Mises [2]: „This theory is essentially an application of the general theory of supply and demand to the special instance of money”. Totuşi, din punct de vedere istoric teoria cantitativă a banilor are un dezavantaj major, cel puţin în ceea ce priveşte formulările sale mai „primitive”. Numeroşi economişti au interpretat teoria în sensul că o modifi care în cererea/oferta de bani va detemina o modifi care proporţională


a nivelului preţurilor1. Probabil cel mai faimos exemplu în acest sens este reprezentat de ecuaţia lui Irvin Fisher, M V = P T 2. Acest tip de raţionament, pe care îl considerăm eronat, este probabil consecinţa studiului fenomenelor economice numai la nivel agregat şi ignorarea acţiunilor concrete ale agenţilor individuali. Abia în prima jumătate a secolului 20 teoria monetară modernă a incorporat în mod corect teoria cantitativă a banilor, i.e. existenţa unei legături cauzale între cererea şi oferta de monedă şi puterea de cumpărare a unităţii monetare3. La momentul respectiv exista o singură diferenţă esenţială. Spre deosebire de versiunile anterioare, atenţia s-a mutat de la o modifi care proporţională a „nivelului preţurilor” către o modifi care disproporţională a diverselor preţuri din economie. În acest sens, o schimbare în relaţia dintre cererea şi oferta monetară ar cauza o modifi care a întregii structuri a preţurilor. De exemplu, este adevărat că o creştere a masei monetare cauzează o creştere a tuturor preţurilor, însă nu toate preţurile vor crește în aceeaşi măsură4. Aceste teorii economice sunt, desigur, propoziţii a priori care nu necesită nici un fel de validări suplimentare. Totuşi, considerăm că efortul de a ilustra empiric aceste teorii a fost oarecum insufi cient, cu precădere folosind date din ţara noastră. Aşadar, în acest articol vom utiliza date statistice pentru a vedea dacă acestea pot oferi suport adiţional pentru teoria cantitativă a banilor. Principalul nostru scop este să arătăm că o variaţie a IPC, care este utilizată pentru calcularea infl aţiei, poate fi explicată prin variaţia masei monetare. Pentru a ne îndeplini scopul, vom utiliza regresia statistică. Datele pe care le vom folosi vor fi colectate din surse ofi ciale, precum Institutul Naţional de Statistică şi Banca Naţională a României.

1. Este adevărat că există exemple de economişti celebri care au respins ideea unei aşa-zise proporţionalităţii între modifi cările survenite în echilibru monetar, pe de o parte, şi modifi cări ale preţurilor, pe de altă parte. Richard Cantillon, în “Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en Général” [3], publicat în 1755, a susţinut faptul că o creştere a masei monetare nu cauzează o creştere proporţională a tuturor preţurilor bunurilor şi serviciilor, ci că acesta va genera modifi carea întregii structuri a preţurilor. În onoarea sa, efectele de redistribuire asociate creşterii masei monetare sunt numite astăzi “efectele Cantillon”.2. Unde M reprezintă masa monetară, V reprezintă “viteza de circulaţie a banilor”, P este nivelul general al preţurilor şi T numărul tranzacţiilor efectuate.3. A se vedea spre exemplu lucrările lui Mises [4] şi Hayek [5]. Este interesant faptul că în prezent numeroşi economişti resping idea existenţei unei legături cauzale între puterea de cumpărare şi cererea şi oferta monetară.4. Mises [4] şi Hayek [5] au argumentat faptul că o creştere a masei monetare, via creşterea creditului de producţie, are un efect disproporţionat asupra preţurilor. Aceştia consideră că o creştere artifi cială a creditării către antreprenori va detemina o creştere mai ridicată a preţurilor bunurilor de producţie faţă de preţurile bunurilor de consum. Acest argument a fost folosit de autorii anterior menţionaţi pentru elaborarea celebrei teorii a fl uctuaţiilor economice.


2. Infl aţia şi teoria cantitativă a banilor

Teoria cantitativă a banilor stipulează că există o relaţie de cauzalitate între o creştere/scădere ceteris paribus a masei monetare şi o modifi care a puterii de cumpărare. Astfel, concluzia logică este că o creştere a masei monetare va determina o scădere a puterii de cumpărare a unităţii monetare şi o creştere corespunzătoare1 a preţurilor bunurilor şi serviciilor. Devine clar faptul că, în conformitate cu teoria cantitativă a banilor, infl aţia este strict un fenomen monetar. Pentru a ilustra aceasta concluzie, am ales să aplicăm metoda regresiei pentru a vedea în ce măsură variaţia IPC poate fi explicată prin variaţia masei monetare intermediare (M2). În Romania, conform Institutului Naţional de Statistică, infl aţia se calculează pe baza Indicelui Preţurilor de Consum [6]. Aşadar, rata infl aţiei este calculată conform formulei CPI-100. 2.1 Notă metodologică Setul de date este compus din valori lunare înregistrate în România în perioada ianuarie 2008 – septembrie 2013. Pentru a descrie evoluţia masei monetare am utilizat datele puse la dispoziţie de către Banca Naţională a României. Indicatorul pe care l-am ales este M2 (masa monetară intermediară) care include baza monetară (M1) şi depozitele la vedere2. Deoarece datele au fost disponibile în valori absolute (milioane lei), am ales să le exprimăm sub formă de indici, având drept punct de referinţă preţurile din luna ianuarie 2008. Indicii au fost calculaţi conform formulei: M2 din luna curentă / M2 din ianuarie 2008 × 100. Tabelul 1 arată transformarea din valori absolute în indici. Al doilea set de date este compus din IPC preluaţi de la Institutul Naţional de Statistică. Indicii au fost calculaţi utilizând aceeași metodologie, având drept punct de referinţă luna ianuarie 2008. Tabelul 1 prezintă toate datele utilizate.

1 Dar nu în mod necesar proporţională. 2 Glosar BNR [7].


M2 şi ICPTabel 1

Data Masa monetară intermediară (M2) (mii lei) Indici M2 IPC

Sep. 2013 231,258,651.6 156.83 130.22Aug. 2013 229,631,996.2 155.73 130.96Iul. 2013 225,700,118.5 153.06 131.23Iun. 2013 227,563,263.3 154.32 131.67Mai. 2013 225,821,616.5 153.14 131.66Apr. 2013 225,547,340.1 152.96 131.36Mar. 2013 225,111,160.4 152.66 131.23Feb. 2013 219,301,444.9 148.72 131.18Ian. 2013 219,147,477.5 148.62 130.74Dec. 2012 221,829,585.8 150.44 129.01Nov. 2012 220,506,477.0 149.54 128.23Oct. 2012 220,230,597.1 149.35 128.18Sep. 2012 220,774,195.5 149.72 127.81Aug. 2012 220,022,033.7 149.21 126.33Iul. 2012 221,067,093.9 149.92 125.69Iun. 2012 216,449,666.0 146.79 124.96Mai. 2012 218,572,694.0 148.23 125.01Apr. 2012 216,330,914.2 146.71 124.76Mar. 2012 214,288,680.5 145.32 124.68Feb. 2012 213,529,316.6 144.81 124.16Ian. 2012 212,438,910.7 144.07 123.37Dec. 2011 212,058,932.7 143.81 122.93Nov. 2011 205,061,031.0 139.06 122.64Oct. 2011 203,293,125.2 137.87 122.13Sep. 2011 204,772,154.4 138.87 121.35Aug. 2011 200,475,279.5 135.95 121.60Iul. 2011 199,479,568.3 135.28 122.03Iun. 2011 196,089,551.3 132.98 122.46Mai. 2011 194,621,235.8 131.98 122.81Apr. 2011 192,978,965.3 130.87 122.55Mar. 2011 192,901,079.1 130.82 121.75Feb. 2011 194,801,032.2 132.11 121.03Ian. 2011 196,007,997.5 132.92 120.10Dec. 2010 199,572,050.7 135.34 119.18Nov. 2010 194,198,200.9 131.70 118.56Oct. 2010 191,704,036.6 130.01 117.94Sep. 2010 192,590,356.1 130.61 117.30Aug. 2010 192,677,069.6 130.67 116.65Iul. 2010 190,772,964.2 129.37 116.38Iun. 2010 192,278,793.7 130.40 113.46Mai. 2010 190,109,290.1 128.92 113.28Apr. 2010 188,254,277.7 127.67 113.12Mar. 2010 187,820,575.7 127.37 112.72Feb. 2010 185,677,151.7 125.92 112.48Ian. 2010 184,278,386.8 124.97 112.25Dec. 2009 188,013,003.5 127.50 110.40Nov. 2009 184,057,637.9 124.82 110.05Oct. 2009 182,564,198.4 123.81 109.32Sep. 2009 182,531,764.7 123.79 108.85Aug. 2009 182,785,263.3 123.96 108.43Iul. 2009 180,372,955.9 122.32 108.63Iun. 2009 179,481,958.3 121.72 108.70


Mai. 2009 176,620,828.5 119.78 108.49Apr. 2009 175,808,287.1 119.23 108.48Mar. 2009 174,881,688.3 118.60 108.18Feb. 2009 175,838,113.1 119.25 107.64Ian. 2009 175,769,982.6 119.20 106.71Dec. 2008 173,628,814.6 117.75 105.40Nov. 2008 164,370,148.3 111.47 105.16Oct. 2008 162,147,537.0 109.96 104.82Sep. 2008 166,012,915.1 112.58 103.72Aug. 2008 162,279,874.3 110.05 103.31Iul. 2008 161,220,678.7 109.33 103.40Iun. 2008 161,462,978.7 109.50 102.69Mai. 2008 157,568,259.2 106.86 102.40Apr. 2008 157,044,736.4 106.50 101.91Mar. 2008 151,794,126.0 102.94 101.38Feb. 2008 149,685,164.6 101.51 100.70Ian. 2008 147,457,999.5 100.00 100.00

Sursă: [6], [8]

2.2 Analiza comparativă a evoluţiilor Înainte de a utiliza metoda regresiei, este util să examinăm evoluţiile variabilelor utilizând o reprezentare grafi că standard. Figura 1 ilustrează evoluţiile celor două seturi de date colectate pentru perioada ianuarie 2008 – septembrie 2013. Este vizibil cu ochiul liber faptul că variabilele studiate au avut evoluţii extrem de similare. Amândouă au avut trenduri ascendente, M2 înregistrând o creştere mai mare pe parcursul perioadei analizate. La sfârşitul perioadei analizate, în septembrie 2013, masa monetară intermediară a fost de peste 1,5 ori mai mare decât în ianuarie 20081. Dacă am exprima același lucru în valori absolute, am putea spune că M2 a crescut cu 83.800.652 mii lei în aproximativ 6 ani de zile. După cum am menţionat mai sus, Indicele Preţurilor de Consum a înregistrat şi el o evoluţie ascendentă similară, crescând cu aproximativ 30.2% în aceeaşi perioadă. Rezumând, în ultima lună a perioadei analizate (septembrie 2013), cele două variabile, M2 şi IPC, au înregistrat valori care erau cu 56.8%, respectiv 30.2% mai mari decât în ianuarie 2008. Aşadar, se poate observa cu uşurinţă că IPC a crescut în această perioadă într-un ritm mai redus decât M2.

1. Mai exact 156.8%.


Comparaţia evoluţiilor M2 şi IPC

Figura 1

Sursa: [6], [8]

2.3 Regresia statistică Odată ce am descris modalitatea de colectare şi prelucrare a datelor, putem continua prin aplicarea regresiei liniare simple. În cazul nostru, variabila X va fi reprezentată de masa monetară intermediară (M2), în timp ce variabila Y va fi IPC. Motivul acestei analize este de a verifi ca dacă variaţia IPC poate fi explicată prin variaţia masei monetare. Rezultatul aplicării regresiei în Excel, calculate cu un interval de încredere a coefi cienţilor de 95%, se regăseşte în Figura 2 de mai jos.


Rezultatul analizei regresiei în ExcelFigura 2

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0,972519

R Square 0,945793 Adjusted R Square 0,944971

Standard Error 2,277128

Observations 68

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 5971,114 5971,114 1151,544 1,6835E-43

Residual 66 342,2305 5,18531

Total 67 6313,344

Coefficients Standard

Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%

Intercept 34,65093 2,438796 14,20821 9,4E-22 29,78171581 39,52014 29,78172 39,52014

M2 0,626057 0,018449 33,93441 1,68E-43 0,589222348 0,662892 0,589222 0,662892

După cum reiese din Figura 2, există o legătură puternică între variabila independentă şi cea dependentă. Coefi cientul de determinare (R2) este de aproximativ 0.95, ceea ce înseamnă că 95% din variaţia procentuală a IPC este explicată prin variaţia masei monetare intermediare. Coefi cientul de determinare ajustat (Adjusted R Square) are și el o valoare ridicată, fapt ce ne confi rmă concluzia că legătura dintre cele două variabile nu se poate datora hazardului. În continuare, deoarece tabelul ANOVA nu este extrem de important pentru interpretarea regresiei liniare, ne vom concentra strict asupra variabilei Signifi cance F pentru a vedea dacă rezultatele noastre sunt relevante din punct de vedere statistic sau nu. De obicei valoarea Signifi cance F ar trebui să fi e mai mică decât 0.05 pentru ca rezultatul să fi e semnifi cativ din punct de vedere statistic, fapt ce nu constituie o problemă în cazul nostru deoarece Signifi cance F este practic 01. Ecuaţia dreptei poate fi exprimată sub forma yi = 34.65093+0.626057xi. După cum putem observa, valorile P sunt practic 0, ceea ce înseamnă că probabilitatea ca acest coefi cient să fi fost obţinut din întamplare este zero. Diagrama reziduurilor, ilustrată în Figura 3 de mai jos, întăreşte această

1. Dacă transformăm expresia exponenţială 1,6835E-43 într-un număr real, Signifi cance F este aproximtiv 17×10-44.


concluzie. Nu se poate observa nici un pattern în distribuţia valorilor reziduale, care par să fi e distribuite normal şi concentrate în jurul valorii zero.

Diagrama reziduurilorFigura 3

Sursa: prelucrarea proprie a datelor

2.4 Interpretarea calitativă a rezultatelor Se poate observa că nu este difi cil să ilustrăm empiric teoria cantitativă a banilor, folosind date statistice. Teoria economică stipulează clar faptul că infl aţia este un fenomen monetar şi că o creştere ceteris paribus a masei monetare duce în mod necesar la o scădere a puterii de cumpărare. Acest articol este menit să ilustreze concluzia teoriei cantitative a banilor într-o situaţie particulară, respectiv cazul României în perioada ianuarie 2008 – septembrie 2013. Este clar că ratele relativ scăzute ale infl aţiei înregistrate în România în ultimii ani se datorează deciziilor BNR de menţinere a unei mase monetare relativ constante1. Conform teoriei cantitative, singura modalitate de a contracara infl aţia este de a avea o masa monetară fi xă. Considerăm că Banca Naţională a României ar trebui să continue şi să intensifi ce eforturile sale în lupta contra infl aţiei, luptă care poate fi câștigată doar printr-o menţinere constantă a masei monetare.

3. Concluzii Teoria cantitativă a banilor, după cum am menţionat mai sus, este o propoziţie a priori care nu necesită nici un fel de validare suplimentară. Totuşi, este interesant să subliniem faptul că teoria poate fi ilustrată cu ușurinţă utilizând analiza statistică. În România, în perioada 2008-2013, variaţia IPC

1 Deşi este oarecum înşelător să denumim o creştere de aproximativ 40% a masei monetare (M2) pe o perioadă de 5 ani şi 9 luni “constantă”.


poate fi explicată din punct de vedere statistic prin variaţia masei monetare. Astfel, cea mai bună modalitate de a contracara fenomenul monetar cunoscut drept infl aţie este printr-o menţinere constantă a masei monetare.

Bibliografi e selectivă

[1] ***Encyclopedia Britannica, 2013, disponibil la: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/486147/quantity-theory-of-money [Accessed on 10 12 2013]. [2] Mises, L. v., Human Action: A Treatise on Economics. The Scholar’s Edition ed. Auburn: Alabama: The Ludwig von Mises Institute, 1998, p. 405. [3] Cantillon, R., An Essay on the Nature of Commerce. London: Frank Cass and Co, 1959. [4] Mises, L. v., The Theory of Money and Credit. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1953. [5] Hayek, F. A. v., Prices and Production and Other Works. Auburn:Alabama: The Ludwig von Mises Institute, 2008. [6] ***Institutul Naţional de Statistică, 2013, disponibil la: https://statistici.insse.ro/shop/?page=ipc1&lang=ro [accesat la 11.12.2013]. [7] ***Banca Naţională a României, 2013, disponibil la: http://www.bnro.ro/Glosar-2444.aspx, [accesat la 20.12.2013]. [8] ***Banca Naţională a României, 2013, disponibil la: http://www.bnr.ro/Masa-monetara-M3-si-contrapartida-acesteia-5171.aspx, [accesat la 20.12.2013].


EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY:

ROMANIA – A CASE STUDY PhD Candidate Alexandru PĂTUŢI PhD Candidate Alina TĂTULESCU Academy of Economic Studies

Abstract

The quantity theory of money is one of the most important theoretical propositions in monetary economic theory. However, in recent days more and more economists contest its validity. In this article we will attempt to offer additional empirical support for the quantity theory of money. We argue that the variation in the consumer price index (CPI) in Romania in the last six years can be fully explained by the variation in the supply of money. Key words: the quantity theory of money; money supply; regression analysis; consumer price index (CPI); purchasing power.

1. Introduction The quantity theory of money is probably one of the oldest theoretical propositions in modern economic thought. Some of its fi rst formulations, at the hands of the English philosopher John Locke [1], date back to the 17th century. At the core of the quantitative theory of money lies the proposition that the price of money (i.e. the purchasing power of the monetary unit) is determined by the interplay of supply and demand for money. As L. von Mises [3] correctly points out: “This theory is essentially an application of the general theory of supply and demand to the special instance of money”. However, historically the quantity theory of money had one major drawback, at least with regard to one of its more “primitive” formulations. Numerous economists interpreted that a change in the supply/demand for money would cause a proportional change in the level of prices1. Probably,

1. It is true that there are examples of illustrious economists who rejected the alleged proportionality between movements in the monetary equilibrium on the one hand and prices on the other. Richard Cantillon’s “Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en Général” [2], published in 1755 clearly argued that an increase in the stock of money does not cause a proportional increase in all the prices of good and services, but that the structure of prices will be modifi ed altogether. In his honor, the redistribution effects associated to an increase in the money supply are known today as “the Cantillon effects”.


the most famous example in this sense is Irvin Fisher’s renowned equation of exchange M V = P T 1. This type of reasoning, which we consider erroneous, is probably the consequence of an endeavor to study phenomena only at an aggregate level and ignore the concrete actions of individual agents. It was only until the fi rst half of the 20th century when modern economic monetary theory correctly reincorporated the core of the quantity theory of money, i.e. the existence of a causal connection between the interplay of demand and supply of money and the purchasing power of the monetary unit2. There was only one essential difference. Unlike the previous versions, the focus was moved from an alleged proportional change in the “level of prices” to a disproportional change in relative prices. In this sense, a change in the relation between the supply and demand for money would cause a modifi cation in the whole structure of prices. For example, it is true that an increase in the stock of money causes an increase in all prices, but not all the prices rise to the same extent3. These economic theories are, of course, a priori propositions which do not require any additional validation. However, we consider that there was a lack of attempts to illustrate the theory based on empirical data collected from Romania. Thus, in this article we will use statistical data to see whether additional support can be given to the quantity theory of money. Our main goal will be to show that the variation in the CPI, which is used as a yardstick to gauge infl ation, can be explained by the variation in the stock of money. In order to achieve our above stated goal, we will employ regression analysis. The data which we will use was collected from offi cial sources like the Romanian National Institute of Statistics and the National Bank of Romania.

2. Infl ation and the quantity theory of money

The quantity theory of money claims that there is a causal relation between a ceteris paribus increase/decrease in the supply of money and a change in the purchasing power of the monetary unit. Thus, the normal

1. Where M represents the total stock of money, V represents the so called “velocity of money”, P stands for the general level of prices and T for the number of transactions.2. See for example the works of Mises [4] and Hayek [5]. It is interesting that numerous economists today reject the idea that a causal connection between the purchasing power and the supply and demand for money exists. 3. It was Mises [4] and Hayek [5] who argued that an increase in the supply of money, via productive credit, has a disproportional effect on prices. In their view, an artifi cial increase in productive credit causes a higher increase in the prices of producer goods relative to the prices of consumer goods. This insight was used by the above mentioned authors to shape their renowned business fl uctuations theory.


conclusion is that an increase in the stock of money will determine a decrease in the purchasing power of the monetary unit and a corresponding1 increase in prices of goods and services. It is clear that according to the quantity theory of money, infl ation is strictly a monetary phenomenon.In order to illustrate this conclusion we have chosen to apply regression analysis to see to what extent the variation in the CPI can be explained by the variation in the intermediary money mass (M2). In Romania, according to the National Institute of Statistics, infl ation is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index [6]. Thus, the rate of infl ation is computed according to the formula CPI – 100. 2.1 Methodological note The data set is composed of monthly values in Romania between January 2008 and September 2013. In order to describe the evolution of the money stock we have employed data made available by the National Bank of Romania. The chosen indicator was M2 (the intermediary money stock) which comprises the monetary base (M1) plus demand deposits2. Because the data was given in absolute terms (millions of lei), we chose to express it as indexes having as reference point the prices in January 2008, according to the formula M2 in the current month / M2 in January 2008 × 100. Table 1 shows the transformation from absolute values to indexes. The second set of data is composed of CPI’s collected from the National Institute of Statistics. The indexes are calculated in the same fashion, having as reference the month January 2008. Table 1 illustrates all the available data.

M2 and CPITable 1

Date Intermediary money stock (M2) (thousand lei) M2 Indices CPI

Sep. 2013 231,258,651.6 156.83 130.22Aug. 2013 229,631,996.2 155.73 130.96Jul. 2013 225,700,118.5 153.06 131.23Jun. 2013 227,563,263.3 154.32 131.67May. 2013 225,821,616.5 153.14 131.66Apr. 2013 225,547,340.1 152.96 131.36Mar. 2013 225,111,160.4 152.66 131.23Feb. 2013 219,301,444.9 148.72 131.18Jan. 2013 219,147,477.5 148.62 130.74Dec. 2012 221,829,585.8 150.44 129.01Nov. 2012 220,506,477.0 149.54 128.23Oct. 2012 220,230,597.1 149.35 128.18Sep. 2012 220,774,195.5 149.72 127.81

1. But not necessarily proportional. 2. NBR Glossary [7].


Aug. 2012 220,022,033.7 149.21 126.33Jul. 2012 221,067,093.9 149.92 125.69Jun. 2012 216,449,666.0 146.79 124.96May. 2012 218,572,694.0 148.23 125.01Apr. 2012 216,330,914.2 146.71 124.76Mar. 2012 214,288,680.5 145.32 124.68Feb. 2012 213,529,316.6 144.81 124.16Jan. 2012 212,438,910.7 144.07 123.37Dec. 2011 212,058,932.7 143.81 122.93Nov. 2011 205,061,031.0 139.06 122.64Oct. 2011 203,293,125.2 137.87 122.13Sep. 2011 204,772,154.4 138.87 121.35Aug. 2011 200,475,279.5 135.95 121.60Jul. 2011 199,479,568.3 135.28 122.03Jun. 2011 196,089,551.3 132.98 122.46May. 2011 194,621,235.8 131.98 122.81Apr. 2011 192,978,965.3 130.87 122.55Mar. 2011 192,901,079.1 130.82 121.75Feb. 2011 194,801,032.2 132.11 121.03Jan. 2011 196,007,997.5 132.92 120.10Dec. 2010 199,572,050.7 135.34 119.18Nov. 2010 194,198,200.9 131.70 118.56Oct. 2010 191,704,036.6 130.01 117.94Sep. 2010 192,590,356.1 130.61 117.30Aug. 2010 192,677,069.6 130.67 116.65Jul. 2010 190,772,964.2 129.37 116.38Jun. 2010 192,278,793.7 130.40 113.46May. 2010 190,109,290.1 128.92 113.28Apr. 2010 188,254,277.7 127.67 113.12Mar. 2010 187,820,575.7 127.37 112.72Feb. 2010 185,677,151.7 125.92 112.48Jan. 2010 184,278,386.8 124.97 112.25Dec. 2009 188,013,003.5 127.50 110.40Nov. 2009 184,057,637.9 124.82 110.05Oct. 2009 182,564,198.4 123.81 109.32Sep. 2009 182,531,764.7 123.79 108.85Aug. 2009 182,785,263.3 123.96 108.43Jul. 2009 180,372,955.9 122.32 108.63Jun. 2009 179,481,958.3 121.72 108.70May. 2009 176,620,828.5 119.78 108.49Apr. 2009 175,808,287.1 119.23 108.48Mar. 2009 174,881,688.3 118.60 108.18Feb. 2009 175,838,113.1 119.25 107.64Jan. 2009 175,769,982.6 119.20 106.71Dec. 2008 173,628,814.6 117.75 105.40Nov. 2008 164,370,148.3 111.47 105.16Oct. 2008 162,147,537.0 109.96 104.82Sep. 2008 166,012,915.1 112.58 103.72Aug. 2008 162,279,874.3 110.05 103.31Jul. 2008 161,220,678.7 109.33 103.40Jun. 2008 161,462,978.7 109.50 102.69May. 2008 157,568,259.2 106.86 102.40Apr. 2008 157,044,736.4 106.50 101.91Mar. 2008 151,794,126.0 102.94 101.38Feb. 2008 149,685,164.6 101.51 100.70Jan. 2008 147,457,999.5 100.00 100.00

Source: [6], [8].


2.2 Trend Comparison Before proceeding to the actual regression analysis, it is useful to examine the evolutions using a standard graphical representation. Figure 1 illustrates the trends corresponding to the two data sets collected between January 2008 and September 2013. There is no further need to point out that the two variables have had remarkably similar evolutions. As it can easily be observed, both variables had ascending trends, with M2 registering a higher increase in the analyzed period. At the end of the analyzed period, in September 2013, the intermediary money stock was more than one and half times the size it represented in January 20081. This translates, in absolute values, in an increase of 83.800.652 thousand lei over a period of approximately 6 years. As it was mentioned above, the Consumer Price Indices registered a similar ascending trend, increasing with approximately 30.2% over the same period. Summing up, in the last month of the analyzed period (September 2013), the two variables, M2 and CPI, registered values that were 56.8%, respectively 30.2% higher than in January 2008. Thus, it can easily be noticed that the CPI increased throughout this period at a slower rate than M2.

M2 and CPI Trends ComparedFigure 1

Source: [6], [8]

1. Exactly 156.8%.


2.3 Regression analysis Given the fact that we’ve described the way in which the data was collected and belabored on, we can now proceed to apply linear regression analysis. The X variable in our case will be the intermediary money stock (M2), while the Y variable is represented by the CPI. The reason for our endeavor is to see whether the variation in CPI can be explained by the variation in the money stock. The Microsoft Excel summary output, calculated based on a 95 percent confi dence interval, is presented in Figure 2 below.

Regression Summary OutputFigure 2

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0,972519

R Square 0,945793 Adjusted R Square 0,944971

Standard Error 2,277128

Observations 68

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 5971,114 5971,114 1151,544 1,6835E-43

Residual 66 342,2305 5,18531

Total 67 6313,344

Coefficients Standard

Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%

Intercept 34,65093 2,438796 14,20821 9,4E-22 29,78171581 39,52014 29,78172 39,52014

M2 0,626057 0,018449 33,93441 1,68E-43 0,589222348 0,662892 0,589222 0,662892

Source: own calculations.

As Figure 2 informs us, there is a very strong relationship between the independent and the dependent value. The coeffi cient of determination (R2) has an approximate value of 0.95, which means that 95 percent of the variation in the CPI is explained by the variation in the intermediary money stock. Adjusted R Square also has an interestingly high value, which reinforces the conclusion that the connection between the two variables cannot be attributed to chance. Going further, ANOVA is not extremely important for interpreting a simple linear regression, so we will only look at Signifi cance F to see whether


our results are statistically signifi cant or not. Usually Signifi cance F should be below 0.05 for the result to be signifi cant, but that does not prove a problem in our case because Signifi cance F is practically 01. The regression equation can be written as ii xy 626057.065093.34 . As we can see, the P-values are practically zero, which means that there is a zero probability that the coefi cient was obtained by chance. The residual plot, presented in Figure no. 3 below, reinforces this conclusion. We can observe that there is no apparent pattern in the residual values, which appear to be somewhat normally distributed and concentrated around zero.

Residuals PlotFigure 3

Source: own calculation

2.4 Qualitative interpretation One can easily observe that it is not hard to fi nd empirical support for the quantity theory of money. Economic theory clearly states that infl ation is a monetary phenomenon and that any ceteris paribus increase in the supply of money and credit necessarily leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of the monetary unit. The present article is only meant to illustrate the conclusion of the quantity theory of money in a particular situation, i.e. the case of Romania between January 2008 and September 2013. It is clear that the relatively low infl ation rates that Romania has experienced in the past years are a consequence of the decision taken by the NBR to keep the money supply relatively constant2. According to the quantity theory, the only way to fi ght infl ation is by having a fi x monetary supply. It is

1. If you turn the exponential expression 1,6835E-43 into a number Signifi cance F equals approximately 17×10-44.2. Although it is somewhat misleading to call an approximately 40% increase in the intermediary money stock over a period of 5 years and 9 months “constant”.


our belief that the National Bank of Romania should continue and intensify its efforts in keeping a constant supply of money in order to prevent further infl ation.

3. Conclusions The quantity theory of money, as we have mentioned before, is an a priori proposition which does not require any additional validation. However, it is interesting to point out that the theory can easily be illustrated using statistical analysis. In Romania, in the time period between roughly 2008 and 2013, the variation in the CPI can be statistically explained by the variation in the supply of money. Thus, the best way to fi ght the monetary phenomenon known as infl ation is to keep a constant stock of money.

Selective Bibliography

[1] ***Encyclopedia Britannica, 2013, available at: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/486147/quantity-theory-of-money. [Accessed on 10.12.2013]. [2] Cantillon, R., An Essay on the Nature of Commerce. London: Frank Cass and Co., 1959. [3] Mises, L. v., Human Action: A Treatise on Economics. The Scholar’s Edition ed. Auburn: Alabama: The Ludwig von Mises Institute, 1998, p. 405 [4] Mises, L. v., The Theory of Money and Credit. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1953. [5] Hayek, F. A. v., Prices and Production and Other Works. Auburn:Alabama: The Ludwig von Mises Institute, 2008. [6] ***National Instiute Of Statistics, 2013, available at: https://statistici.insse.ro/shop/?page=ipc1&lang=ro [accessed 11.12.2013]. [7] ***The National Bank of Romania, 2013, available at: http://www.bnro.ro/Glosar-2444.aspx, [accesed 20.12.2013]. [8] ***The National Bank of Romania, 2013, available at: http://www.bnr.ro/Masa-monetara-M3-si-contrapartida-acesteia-5171.aspx, [accessed 20.12.2013].


Consumul de vin: o analiză a pieţei din Sicilia Maurizio LANFRANCHI email: [email protected] Carlo GIANNETTO email: [email protected] University of Messina, Italy

Abstract

Metodologia folosită la proiectul de cercetare a fost una de tip cantitativ şi aleator. Ancheta aleatorie se referă la identifi carea factorilor proeminenţi, din care derivă comportamentul consumatorilor la cumpărare. Pentru a realiza această cercetare, s-a efectuat o ancheta motivatoare folosind o metodologie care caută opinii din răspunsurile la chestionar. Ca prim pas, membrii echipei de cercetare au proiectat şi dezvoltat ipoteza, au identifi cat întrebarile ce urmau a fi adresate şi au elaborat chestionarul care a fost împărţit la un eşantion de consumatori. Instrumentul folosit pentru procesare datelor a constat în crearea unui tabel cu doua intrări şi estimarea testului de raport de probabilitate log cu valoare p relativă. Nivelul fi x al importanţei pentru analiza statistică generală a fost a=0.05. Testul de raport probabilitate log, privind literatura statistică de test G a fost folosit pentru a evalua asocierea dintre cele două variabile calitative. Cuvinte cheie: vin, marketing, analiza pieţei, analiza statistică, testul raport probabilitate-log.


THE CONSUMPTION OF WINE: A ANALYSIS OF MARKET

CONDUCTED IN SICILY Maurizio LANFRANCHI Carlo GIANNETTO University of Messina, Italy

Abstract The methodology used in conducting the research project was of a quantitative and random kind. Random surveying refers to the identifi cation of the prominent factors, from which consumers’ purchasing behavior derives. In order to carry out the research a motivational survey was conducted using a methodology of seeking opinions through answers to a questionnaire. As a fi rst step members of the research team designed and developed the research hypothesis, identifi ed the questions to be asked in the survey and drew up the questionnaire to be given to the sample of consumers. The tool used for processing data consisted of the creation of a double entry table and estimation of the log-likelihood ratio test with relative p-value. The fi xed level of signifi cance for the overall statistical analysis was α= 0,05. The log-likelihood ratio test, referred to in statistics literature as the G test, was used to evaluate the association between the two qualitative variables. Keywords: wine, marketing, market analysis, statistical analysis, log-likelihood ratio test

1. Introduction

The methodology followed to conduct the research project was quantitative and random. The random search refers to the identifi cation of the prominent factors from which springs the buying behavior of consumer. Preliminary components of the research team have defi ned and developed the research hypotheses, identifi ed the survey questions and constructed the questionnaire to be administered to the sample of consumers. The construction of the questionnaire has led to questions about the defi nition of perceived quality, the habitual consumption, the price-quality ratio. The objective of the research was to understand the habits and buying preferences of wine, with particular reference to that produced in Sicily. The research was conducted as a motivational survey through a methodology that refers to the survey by questionnaire. The survey on consumption of wine has been conducted in the period between November 5th


of 2012 and February 10th of 2013 on a sample of 200 consumers of Sicily. The recognition by the administration of the product was mainly conducted at some outlets, supermarkets, wine shops and bars, interviewing a sample of consumers directly with the method “face to face.” The survey purpose was conducted to understand the needs of wine consumers and the role played by the mark of quality in the choice of purchase, and fi nally the degree of appreciation and consumption of Sicilian wine. The instrument used for data processing has been the construction of a double entry table and the estimated log-likelihood ratio test with the relevant p-value. The signifi cance level for the whole statistical analysis was α = 0.05. The log-lik lihood-ratio test known in the statistical literature as test G was used to evaluate the association between two qualitative variables. The questionnaire was structured in three sections, the fi rst tending to acquire information about the socio-demographic characteristics of consumers surveyed (age, sex, marital status, education level). The second section identifi es the factors and the specifi c consumption of wine (wine type, frequency of consumption, purchasing places, places to eat). Finally, the third one was to obtain information about the perception of quality, price and preference for the consumption of Sicilian wine. In order to assess whether the frequency of wine consumption is signifi cantly infl uenced by age was estimated by ordinal logistic regression model, known in statistical literature as a model PLUM. In this context it was made known only a part of the research, we refer to a next publication of the full report.

2. Brief analysis of the Sicilian wine growing and producing market

Sicilian wine growing and producing is one of the main economic resources in the region (Bacarella G., Nicoletti G., 2010), accounting for a gross total of about 15% of agricultural produce. With about 110,000 hectares (plus about 19,000 hectares in reserve) of vineyards, Sicily is the most important wine growing and producing region in Italy. Three Sicilian provinces possess the greatest resources in this area: Trapani (66,557.79 ha), Agrigento (19,943.24 ha) and Palermo (15,821.91 ha). These provinces account for about 88.5% of Sicily’s wine growing and producing land. Those with the smallest land areas dedicated to wine production are Messina (0.76%) and Enna (0.32%) (Bacarella S., Corona G., Forte A, 2010). The most widely grown grape varieties are Catarratto Bianco Comune (28.4%), Nero d’Avola (16.8%) and Inzolia (6.12%); these are followed by smaller quantities of Trebbiano Toscano, Catarratto Bianco Lucido, Grillo, Syrah, Chardonnay, etc.. Overall, there is


a clear prevalence of white varieties (63.8%) over red ones (35.9%); other varieties account for only 0.25%. Table wines and muscatels account for 65 – 70% of total production, 25 – 30% is made up of IGT products, and 4 – 4.45% is made up of QWPSR. As regards forms of growing, the most widely used is the espalier (81.2%), followed by the canopy (9.8%) and the traditional sapling (8.4%). Overall Sicilian wine grape production is around 6 million hectoliters, as would be expected from the number of hectares given over to it (Pomarici E., Sardone R., 2001). The province producing the most wine is Trapani, with more than 3 million hectoliters; Trapani is followed by Agrigento and Palermo. The three Sicilian provinces with most land dedicated to wine growing and producing account for almost 85% of overall production, roughly in line with the land area concerned. The Sicilian provinces producing the least wine are Siracusa (1.28%) and Enna (0.67%). Today there are about 710 wine growing and producing forms in Sicily, 55 of which are associations of producers.

3. General characteristics of the sample

The analysis was conducted on a large heterogeneous sample had different demographic and socio-economic conditions. 200 respondents were detected as surveyed. The survey was conducted in Sicily (Italy).

Summary of socio - economic characteristics of consumers surveyed Table no. 1

Indication characters n° %sex males 102 51

females 98 49total 200 100

age classes 70 and up 2 150 - 69 21 10,530 - 49 43 21,518 - 29 134 67total 200 100

civil status single 151 75,5married 47 23,5divorced 2 1

total 200 100study qualifi cations degree 30 15

diploma 149 75primary-secondary 20 10

total 200 100 Source: Our calculations based on data collected directly


51% of respondents are males, the remaining 49%, corresponding to 56 subjects, are females. On the basis of demographic characteristics, the target of the respondents were divided into four age groups: members of the class, include persons aged between 18-29 years, represents 67% of respondents (134 units) ; members of the second age group (30 - 49 years) are 21.5% of total (43 units); respondents included in the third age group (50-69 years) represented 10.5% of the sample; Finally, only 1% of respondents older than 70 years. With reference to the qualifi cations, it is possible to note that the majority of respondents, 75% (149 units), graduated, only 15% have a college degree, while the remaining 10% (20 units), has the title of middle school or elementary. Another variable considered in the sample for the survey is conducted on marital status. 75.5% (151 units) of the respondents are single (unmarried), 23.5% (47 units) are married and only one person reported being divorced.

4. Analysis and interpretation of results: consumption, frequency, preferences

Respondents were administered a questionnaire consisting of ten questions aimed to assess, in particular, consumer habits and buying wine, the characteristics which must have a quality wine, and the reasons to choose from a wide range of wines. The fi rst question asked respondents to consumers is related to frequency of consumption of wine. From the replies (fi g. no. 1) can be seen that there are two opposing groups fed, on the one hand those who consumes wine time to time, not more than once per month (19.5%), on the other those who consumes it usually, in fact, 34.5 % says they consume at least 2 to 3 times a week.


What is your wine consumption? Fig. no. 1

In particular, as shown in Graph no. 1, 17% of regular consumers, prefer to taste the wine every day. Regarding the place of consumption, the majority of respondents prefer home or restaurant (74%). Only a small proportion of respondents, about 4%, prefers to consume wine at the bar. Maybe this place can be a pleasant meeting point but not the ideal place to savor or enjoy a glass of quality wine. With regard to the propensity of expenditure and the habits of the consumer of wine, have been formulated two questions. The fi rst relatively to the maximum expenditure for the purchase of a single bottle, the second which is roughly the budget for the purchase of wine in an year. Regarding the fi rst question, 42.5% of respondents said it is willing to spend for a single bottle of wine, an amount not exceeding 10 €, only 26% of consumers would be willing to buy a bottle at a price above the 10 €. When asked how the average annual expenditure for the purchase of wine, most of the answers is between 10 and 100 euros (35.5%), signifi cant, approximately 27% is the percentage of those who are positioned on a top-end buying, on average, between 101 and 250 euros (fi g. no. 2).


How supposedly spends in a year for the purchase of wine? Fig. no. 2

Only 6% of respondents are willing to spend an amount in excess of 500 euros to deal with such consumption. To know the habits of the consumer, it was also asked, what is your favorite place to buy. The majority of respondents (37%) replied by the manufacturer. This shows that the average consumer is still looking for a genuine product, and that the seller prefers to meet in person, the raw materials and techniques used. This fi nding is important because it refl ects consumer preference towards short chain, which allows us to contain the costs of intermediation. 29% of respondents prefer to buy that product in supermarkets and hypermarkets. Only 10% discount on wine purchases, a sign that they tend to buy more quality wine. Subsequently, the respondent is asked, what were the factors that determine the quality of the wine. For this application, he had the opportunity to provide a multiple choice (fi g. no. 3). The extrapolated data is interesting, in fact, about 60% of respondents match the quality of origin area (30%) or more specifi cally the designation of origin (29%). This shows that the average consumer, you feel protected, only if there is an offi cial recognition that guarantees the quality of the product.


What are the factors that determine the quality of wine?Fig. no. 3

Only 10% of consumers said that the factor that determines the quality of wine is certifi ed organic, meaning that even today this kind of recognition is not entered in the “culture” of the average consumer. Through the investigation, among other things, an attempt was made to understand the reasons, which push the consumer to purchase a product over another. This question has been answered question No. 7. For 24.4% of respondents, the decisive factor in the choice of purchasing wine is taste, follows with 15% of those who believe that the parameter of choice is paramount pairing with food. This date, however, shows us that the “quality” factor, is not paramount in purchasing decisions (15.1%) (Fig. no.4).


Which factors are most important choice for the purchase of wine?Fig. no. 4

The answer can be justifi ed by the fact that generally the ‘quality’ wines have a higher price, and as evinced by the previous answers, the consumer is not willing to spend an exorbitant sum for the purchase of a single bottle. 17.1% of respondents said that one of the main factors that determine their choice in wine is the color. Some 35.5% of the sample of respondents said they preferred the color red. 25% of consumers have shown a preference for white wine, while 18% does not matter the color of wine. How many regards consumer habits, the interviewee was asked if changes in general type of wine, and how many times he prefers to do it. The answers shows that the average consumer normally change the type of wine. More specifi cally, 31% of respondents say to change the type of wine consumed occasionally. Instead, 24.5% say they frequently prefer to change the type of wine, only 14% of respondents do not like change wine, but prefers to consume the same type. The investigation extended to the territory of Messina, as we had said, the goal of interpreting the buying habits of consumers relative to the market of Sicilian wines. For this reason has been given the following question: do you drink Sicilian wine? The most frequent response was two to three times per month (26%). This fi nding is consistent with that provided by respondents to the fi rst question (how many times consumes wine) In fact, even then most consumers gave


the same response. 12.5% of respondents said that Sicilian wine consumed each day. Finally we asked respondents if they know the benefi cial effects of wine consumption. Almost all respondents (74%), say they know the benefi ts of wine, this date is concerned, since it appears that consumers in this regard is interested in health aspects associated with the consumption of wine, particularly the presence of polyphenols can reduce the negative effects associated with the digestion of certain fats of animal origin present in red meat.

5. Identikit of the wine consumer in Sicily

The study conducted on the reference sample has been able to trace the profi le-type on the consumer of wine in Sicily. Man, bachelor or graduate degree, over the age of fi fty years and among those belonging to the younger age group between 22 and 25 prefer red wine on a budget with which to purchase the bottle of wine quality even more than 10 euros if bought at Enoteca, less than 5 euros when purchased at discount store. The annual expenditure for the purchase of wine does not exceed 100 euros. This is the identikit of the wine consumer at Sicily. The research showed, among other things, that the consumer prefers-the type of wine consumed at home or in restaurant. With regard to distribution channels, the consumer-type prefers to buy the bottle from the manufacturer, preferring the short chain, and researching the quality of the product, even if it is high proportion of subjects that buys at the supermarket. Among the factors that determine the choice process of consumption, the market survey showed that the area of origin for the majority is synonymous with quality. This is an aspect of particular importance that reinforces even more the need to link the image of the area to the product. The consumer research is realized so through offi cial recognition of a brand of wine quality.

6. Conclusions

The continuing international economic crisis has been less sharply felt in the European agri-food sector, thanks to the fl exibility of this sector, which is safeguarded by differentiations in company size; indeed, in the 27 countries of the European Union, more than 99% of the agri-food sector is made up of small and medium-sized enterprises. The European agri-food system currently has a turnover of about 917 billion Euros and employs more than four and a half million people; small and medium-sized enterprises are thus fundamental to the European agri-food industry. This is demonstrated


by the fi gures, which highlight that agri-food SMEs have created an ancillary system which accounts for 63% of jobs in the sector and a highly valuable 47% of its added value. The Italian agri-food sector includes as many as 900,000 agricultural fi rms, 6,500 food manufacturers, about 70,000 micro-enterprises and artisans and almost 400,000 commercial businesses, as well as the restaurant business. The importance of agribusiness within the EU is refl ected in Italy, where it accounts for 12.6% of the employment market and 8.4% of gross domestic product. It is worrying to note that almost 90% of Italian wine growing and producing enterprises do not carry out market surveys or studies; indeed, fewer than a hundred Italian fi rms in this sector commission market research in an attempt to adapt their products to changing consumer requirements and new demands from the international market. The only source of market information for entrepreneurs is often the importer or distributor his form uses. The supply of Italian wine is undoubtedly one of the most varied and prestigious in the world, possessing unique characteristics and strong local identity, elements which help make it highly competitive. Today, supply is characterized by a structure not only composed of small and medium-sized enterprises, but a myriad of micro-enterprises which cause fragmentation of the production system. This could become an added value only if action is taken to inform the market of the peculiarities of the various production models. The future of Italian wine growing and producing is thus closely tied to the need to activate cooperation processes, which encourage vertical, as well as horizontal, forms of integration. In this way, added value can be created, through the bottled product, and the currently weak or almost inexistent contractual power of producers can be improved in their dealings with large distributors.

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- Fujikoshi Y., von Rosen D. 2000. LR Tests for Random-Coeffi cient Covariance Structures in an Extended Growth Curve Model, Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 75 (2), 245-268. - Lanfranchi M., Giannetto C., Zirilli A., Alibrandi A. (2012). Market analysis of typical products in Italy: bivariate statistical relationships between qualitative variables. Chinese Business Review, Vol. 11 - Serial Number 103. - Lanfranchi M., 2012. Economy of Globalization and Market Crisis: What Solution for the Agricultural Sector. Edited by Hector Cuadra-Montiel Globalization - Approaches to Diversity. Publisher: InTechopen.com, Rijeka. - Lanfranchi M., 2012. Economic analysis on the enhancement of citrus waste for energy production. Journal of Essential Oil Research, vol. 5, ISSN: 1041-2905. - Lanfranchi M., Giannetto C., 2010 The Tourist district model of competitiveness for economic development in local territorial. Revista de Turism, Universitatea ‚Stefan cel Mare’ Suceava, (Romanian) Vol. n. 10. - Lanfranchi M., 2010. Sustainable Technology as an Instrument of the Enviromental Policy for the - Attainment of a Level of Socially Acceptable Pollution. World Futures, vol. 66 Issue 6. - Laplace, P. S. 1951. A philosophical essay on probabilities. (F. W. Truscott & F. L. Emory, Trans.). New York, NY: Dover. (Original work published 1814). - Marangon F., Troiano S., Zaccomer G.P., 2010. Competitività della vitivinicoltura di qualità; la Doc “Collio”, Economia Agro-Alimentare, n.3. - Pomarici E., Sardone R., 2001. Il settore vitivinicolo in Italia. Bologna, Inea, Vol 30 No.1, pp. 111 – 129. - Marija J. Noruṧis., 2009. PASW Statistic 18. Statistical Procedures Companion. Paerson Education. pp. 35 – 60. - Soliani L., 2004. Manuale di Statistica per la ricerca e la professione. Statistica univariata e bivariata parametrica e non-parametrica nelle discipline ambientali e biologiche, Uninova, 2004. - Zelterman D.1988. Likelihood ratio tests for central mixtures. Statistics & Probability Letters, 6 (4) 275-279.


Ocazii de cariere în turismul global şi dileme ale învaţământului superior de turism în Pakistan un studiu de caz la Gorakh Hill Dadu-Sindh, Pakistan

Dr. Anwar Ali Shah G. SYED [email protected] Pro-Vice Chancellor-MBBS-Campus Dadu University of Sindh Assistant Professor Asad Raza Abdi Assistant Professor Fayyaz Chandio SALU-Khairpur Mirs Assistant Professor Faiz M. Shaikh [email protected] SZABAC-Dokri-Larkana-Sindh-Pakistan

Abstract

Această anchetă cercetează ocaziile pentru carierele de turism global și dilemele din învățământul superior de turism din Pakistan. Datele sunt culese de la 300 repondenți din districtul Dadu și vecinatatea lui în anii 2012 și 2013 și sunt analizate folosind e-view-6. S-a dezvăluit faptul că dezvoltarea industriei turismului din Gorakh Hill oferă ocazii pentru întreprinderile mici și mijlocii, dar și pentru industria hotelieră. S-a mai dezvaluit că tursimul este un subiect major în programul MBA ajutând la sporirea cunoștiințelor de turism în Pakistan. “Fereastra” internațională ar putea fi lărgită și pentru a oferi studenților mai multe proiecte şi o înţelegere practică a competenţelor lor în întreprinderile internaţionale şi în context global de tranziție. Cuvinte cheie: învățământ superior, cariere, internaționalizare.


GLOBAL TOURISM CAREERS OPPORTUNITIES AND DILEMMAS

FACING HIGHER EDUCATION IN TOURISM IN PAKISTAN

- A Case study of Gorakh Hill Dadu-Sindh-Pakistan

Dr. Anwar Ali Shah G. SYED Pro-Vice Chancellor-MBBS-Campus Dadu University of Sindh Assistant Professor Asad Raza Abdi Assistant Professor Fayyaz Chandio SALU-Khairpur Mirs Assistant Professor Faiz M. Shaikh SZABAC-Dokri-Larkana-Sindh-Pakistan

Abstract

This research investigates the Global Tourism Careers? Opportunities and Dilemmas Facing Higher Education in Tourism in Pakistan: A Case study of Gorakh Hill Dadu-Sindh-Pakistan. Data were collected from 300 respondents from Dadu district in and their vicinity from 2012 and 2013 and data is analyzed by using by E-view-6. It was revealed that development of Tourism industry in Ghorakh Hill provide opportunities for the small and Medium enterprises as well as hotel industry. It was further revealed that Tourism as a major subject in MBA program, so it help in enhancing knowledge of tourism in Pakistan. The international window could also be widened to give students more prospects and a greater practical understanding of their competencies in international enterprises and the global transition context. Keywords: Higher education, careers, internationalization.

Introduction

The tourism sector provides many opportunities for well-qualifi ed people aiming at international careers. The myths and realities of globalisation have long infl uenced the philosophies and practices of tourism education (Hawkins, 1997; Go, 1994). The fact that tourism is a highly international activity, and that employees are frequently likely to meet foreigners in jobs at all levels, are two obvious reasons. In addition to this, the internationalisation of fi rms and the cross


-border infl uence of business standards and concepts add to the international imperative, including in the educational system. Students’ own travel experiences prior to their studies – including working abroad – are a more recent trend that the providers of tourism education cannot ignore. Worldwide, there are many university programmes for (predominantly managerial) careers in tourism, and many universities also have international departments, which attract students to full-time programmes or shorter exchange courses. Obviously, the market for student exchange has increased, hospitality courses being among the more popular (Jenkins, 1997; Richards, 1995). Tertiary education in tourism in particular has grown dramatically, driven by the notion that tourism enterprises are in desperate need of qualifi ed staff (High Level Group, 1998; ILO, 2001; Leslie, 1993). Compared with other western countries, Scandinavian universities have generally been late starters in the development and internationalisation of tertiary education in tourism. This reluctance is partly due to the fact that tourism has traditionally been included in the vocational training system, which has its own professionalization logic. However, their late entry on the scene, and the fact that they are unburdened by past experience, traditions and investment, make universities ideally placed to cope with the constraints that seem to be emerging for providers of tourism education in many countries, especially with regard to supply, lack of recognition, and unsatisfactory job prospects for graduates (Dewar et al., 2002). The focus of this study is thus on the prospects for a small, new provider. The service sector, and not least the tourism industry, is characterized by a consistently high proportion of women employees (High Level Group, 1998). However, women aspiring to international careers are often at a disadvantage (Black, 1999). The study presented in this article discusses the gender implications of a global career and the possible responses of educational providers.

Methodology and data

Data were collected from 300 respondents from Dadu district and their vicinity and data is analyzed by using by E-view-6. The questionnaire was handed out to all 300 students on the Masters program. Most of the students chose to complete the questionnaire in the class. A total of responded 270, giving a highly acceptable response rate of 90 per cent. Table 1 shows that the majority of students are women, most of who are between 20 and 25. Most students live in the Dadu. Although strongly encouraged by the MBA-evening MBBS-Campus Dadu


Sex and age of the survey population Table 1

PercentageMale 70Female 30

Under 20 6.320-24 1925-29 64.30-34 735 and over 2

Motivation

Table 2 shows the reasons for starting the program. Half of the population has previous work experience in the industry. Positive experience is obviously decisive for their choice of study program. As can be seen, male students are motivated by previous experience in the industry to a higher extent than female students.

What are the three most important motives for choosing the MSM programmed?

Table 2Percentage of studentsAll Male Female

I have previously worked in the industry, and am interested in 49 58 45Obtaining higher qualifi cationsI fi nd the subjects very interesting 26 27 26The industry is more likely to develop with more professional 26 25 26ManagersI prefer to work with people and/or communication 53 48 55The job opportunities are good 13 4 17A degree will enable me to start my own enterprise 11 13 11This degree can be utilized in many trades and industries 38 31 41The pay is good 23 17 25Opportunities for international careers 30 38 26Other motives 1 0 2

The opportunities to work with people and communication are other prime motives, slightly more important for female than male students. Ross (1997) obtains similar results with an Australian student population,


and other studies also support the fi ndings to some extent (Airey and Frontistis, 1997; Clark, 1993; Tepeci and Bartlett, 2002; Szivas and Riley, 1999). Swedish students also consider it important that the degree in service management can be used in other sectors. Interestingly, in the program material published by the university, there is no mention of this aspect, which indicates that the students must have their own ideas about which sectors the degree can be used in. However, the University offers many other options, including Ph.D. program that follow the Master’s program. Slightly less than a third of the students mention international careers as a plus, though signifi cantly more men than women. Thus, even in a population of young people from a country with a strong tradition for equal opportunities, traditional role models seem to prevail.

What are three most important features of a job?Table 3

Percentage of studentsAll Male Female

The job must be challenging 17 23 10Learning opportunities that can be applied later in other jobs 13 15 12Fast-track career opportunities 13 13 14Possibilities for training and further education 28 32 26Management open to fresh ideas and suggestions 52 54 51Open and non-bureaucratic communication 51 42 54The enterprise must have a good image 19 17 20Technologically advanced enterprise 8 8 8A good atmosphere among employees 64 67 62Colleagues must be helpful and collaborative 50 48 51It must be possible to make decisions and to work independently 42 33 39Competitive salary 39 40 39Bonus and fringe benefi ts 23 19 24Compensation for overtime and extra work 30 25 32Flexible working hours 22 21 23Family policy 20 25 18International career opportunities 36 25 41Job stability 45 35 49

Female students are somewhat self-contradictory with regard to international career opportunities. All students imagine embarking on great international careers, but women obviously feel they have less freedom of movement here. Family obligations may be a legitimate reason for this, but it is also likely that women tend to ‘imprison’ themselves more than men in relation to careers (Drummond and Chell, 2001; Fornäs and Bolin 1995).


Studies of choice of occupation show that women generally consider a signifi cantly narrower range of opportunities than men.

Preferred job and enterprise types

The students could be said to be somewhat pre-programmed for their future careers by their choice to register for the program. The MSM is about management, and the majority of the students see themselves in managerial jobs within ten years, as shown in Table 4.

What type of job do you expect to have in 2013Table 4

Percentage of students

All Male FemaleManaging director (CEO) 46 57 42Middle manager 31 22 35Specialist function, consultant etc 16 17 16Innovator, writer, politician 6 2 8Researcher 1 2 0

There is a clear gender difference here: male students are more ambitious than their female colleagues, who more frequently aim at middle management. However, female students imagine themselves in non-standard roles on the fringe of the traditional tourism sector, e.g. journalism, consultancy and at headquarters, to a greater extent than their male colleagues.

What type of employer do you see yourself working for in 2013?Table 5


Private SectorHotel or restaurant 38 36 38Tour operator, travel agency, 21 23 20TransportationMarketing, PR, mass media 16 9 19Private sector outside the above 30 7 2Public SectorInternational organisations 3 2 3Academia, training institutions 1 5 0Public authorities 0 0 0Prefer to start own enterprise 18 18 19


Even though 38 per cent of the students (Table 2) indicate that the program can be used in many trades and industries, they tend to stick to the areas defi ned by the Master’s program, i.e. hotels, restaurants and travel businesses. Relatively few regard the media and marketing as realistic and attractive, although female students are more aware of job opportunities in these sub-sectors. Students were also asked to name enterprises they found particularly attractive. SAS/Radisson received the highest score, followed by other well-known Scandinavian and international tourism enterprises, such as Hilton, Elite Hotel, SAS, Scandic, Fritidsresor, Wonderful Copenhagen, Choice Hotels, Copenhagen Airports, and Wing Resor. A crude calculation shows that the MSM program will supply the large hotel chains in the region with managing directors for many decades to come. Obviously, at some point in their studies or work careers, students will have to aim more broadly. The course providers are aware of this dilemma, however, and have started to include more general retail management issues in the program. In Sweden, tourism is not confi ned to the private sector. There is substantial public involvement in destination management and marketing, policy and planning, and education/research (Berggren and Tydén, 2001). Opportunities to work on key tourism issues outside the core sector are also appearing, but so far students have not really discovered the potential for jobs in the public sector. A fi fth of the population of Master’s program students see themselves as entrepreneurs in ten years’ time. Students are far more attracted to jobs in large enterprises and international enterprises than in small ones. This is consistent with other studies, which demonstrate that the media focus on large enterprises has a side effect on human resource issues (Universum, 2001). Employment at a well- known large employer is more likely to signal success on a job applicant’s CV than the name of a relatively unknown small employer. Another consideration is that, in most sectors of the economy, large employers offer better wages and more favourable working conditions. The students’ expressed wish for a good working environment with helpful colleagues refl ects the need for workplaces of a certain size. Female students are less attracted to very large enterprises, and tend more to opt for the medium-sized ones. This preference is also likely to have a negative side effect in terms of opportunities for international careers, as smaller enterprises operate more locally and are less often affi liated (Larsen, 2001).


What kind and size of enterprise do you prefer ?Table 6


Large international corporation, 10,000 employees in many 29 42 24CountriesEnterprise with some international relations, around 1,000 39 34 41EmployeesMedium-sized national enterprise, around 100 employees 21 12 25Small enterprise, around 30-50 employees 11 12 10Micro enterprise, less than 10 employees 0 0 0

The prospects for micro enterprises being able to attract better-educated personnel seem rather bleak (Jameson, 2000). While not blaming the students, this might further aggravate the polarisation between professional, growth-oriented and advanced enterprises on the one hand, and the lifestyle-based small enterprises on the other. At the same time, it must be taken into account that the latter represent not only the large majority of enterprises, but also a very considerable fi nancial turnover and employment rate in the sector.

International careers

The above sections have referred to several indications of internationalisation. Table 7 further illustrates the adventurous nature of male students, who are more inclined than female students to opt for international careers that lead to continual moves from country to country and from continent to continent. Quite a few of the students fi nd it best to start their career at home, in order to gain experience, and then go abroad afterwards.


Would you like an international career in 2014?Table 7


No, I want to stay in my home country and work for a local employer 3 0 4

No, I want to stay in my home country and work in my own enterprise 4 4 4

I want to work for an international corporation, but in my home country 13 7 15

I want to work for an international corporation and move from country to country 35 39 33

I want to settle in another country and work for various 9 15 7EnterprisesI want to go abroad to learn more, but I want to go home after a period of time 25 24 25

I want to start a career at home and go abroad later 11 11 11

International careers seem to be attractive, and many dreams and hopes are connected to working abroad. When compared with the other fi ndings about motivations and likely job categories, however, these dreams and hopes are less likely to be realised. A control question shows that students tend to consider that the quality of life is best at home, close to home, or in countries that are not too culturally different, i.e., the Anglo-Saxon world. As can be seen from Table 8, students are less likely to take risks if jobs involve going to Third World countries or other countries ranking low in an imaginary prestige hierarchy. Other studies confi rm that the best-qualifi ed employees do not exactly queue up for expatriate posts in what are considered risky zones (Black et al., 1999). Quite a number of the students say that the quality of life is best where they are at the moment, e.g. in the Skaane region, including Malmö, Lund and Helsingborg. It is a well-known phenomenon that the more acquainted people get with their environment, the harder it is for them to imagine that life could be better elsewhere. It is remarkable that such young people as in this survey population stress the quality of life in their home region so strongly.


Given your overall quality of life now, where would you like to live in ten years time? (fi rst plus second choice)

Table 8Percentage of students

All Male FemaleCopenhagen 14 15 14Malmö/Lund 21 21 21Helsingborg 19 13 22Other parts of the Øresund region 11 11 11The Stockholm region 16 13 17Other parts of Sweden 19 15 22Other parts of Denmark 1 2 0Other Nordic countries 6 6 6Other European counties ex UK 24 30 22The Anglo-Saxon world (1) 30 32 29Warm tourism countries (2) 24 30 22Developing countries (3) 4 11 1The rest of the world (4) 8 15 5

1) UK, Ireland, USA, Australia, New Zealand, Canada 2) Caribbean, Mexican Gulf, Pacifi c Islands, Thailand, Malaysia 3) Africa south of the Sahara, not South Africa, Central America, India, Pakistan 4) South America, China, Japan, North Africa, Middle East

Future prospects and employee turnover

The rate of turnover in the tourism sector is signifi cantly high in most countries (Bonn and Forbringer, 1992), not least in the Nordic countries (Hjalager and Jeansson, 2002). Furthermore, employees with dedicated training in the hospitality and management sectors are likely to leave the sector within a number of years (Hjalager and Andersen, 2001). The reasons given are often salary, unsocial working hours, and lack of career opportunities (Emenheiser et al., 1998). In Table 2, students indicated that the MSM program might be useful in industries other than tourism, although their guesses as to which are not entirely convincing. A third of the students thought that the qualifi cations acquired could be used elsewhere. One could say that the students are realistic in their evaluation of the human resource features of the sector, and they may also be aware that the high turnover could hamper their career in the sector. In addition, they are preparing themselves for the ‘psychological contract’ they


will have to make with their future employers (Kelly- Patterson and George, 2001), i.e. implicitly or explicitly to negotiate employment conditions for the duration of a job. Nevertheless, as Table 9 shows, the majority want to give tourism a fair chance. In comparison, a cohort study from an Australian university shows that only 40 per cent of graduates were working in other sectors three to four years after graduation (McKercher et al., 1995). According to Purcell and Quinn (1996), one important reason for leaving the industry is ‘over education’ – graduates tend to quickly exhaust the learning potential in typical managerial jobs in the tourist industry and want to go on to new challenges.

Do you think you will be working in tourism in 2013? Table 9


Yes 71 66 72No 5 11 2Don’t know 25 23 27

Conclusion and discussion

The survey shows that the students are very enthusiastic about careers in tourism, and that they fully expect the degree to qualify them for attractive managerial jobs in Sweden and, to a lesser extent, abroad. Despite this, students are fairly unimaginative in their job and enterprise orientation. They seem to lack a good overview of the more intrinsic opportunities in the ‘experience economy’ and the ‘new economy’. Students on this program seem to be unaware of job opportunities in the melting pot between the private and public sectors, and of jobs that bridge the gap between formerly disintegrated strands of the service sector. But these students are still young, it might be objected, and there are still two or three years to graduation. At that time they may discover opportunities that are not as obvious to them now. However, the students are unlikely to develop their imaginative capabilities and become fl exible unless they are supported by the program management and teachers. The MSM curriculum includes many of the usual core subjects, such as marketing, business fi nance and service management. A strong focus on cases and individual projects will, if supervision is geared to more creative interpretations, enable students to move beyond the more standarised types of hospitality studies (Dale and Robinson, 2001; Stuart,


2002) . The portfolio of business partners attached to the program is an indication of the rather traditional way of thinking about tourism within the MSM: most of the business partners are hotels, restaurant chains, travel services and destination management units. An interesting exception is IKEA. Retailing is already being taught more intensively in the course. As a result, only two years after the program was introduced, the university is already revising its previously strong focus on the core tourism industry.

References

- Black, J. S., Gregersen, H. B., Mendenhal, M. E. and Stroh, L. (1999) Globalizing People Through International Assignments. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. - Bonn, M. A. and Forbringer, L.R. (1992) Reducing turnover in the hospitality industry: an overview of recruitment, selection and retention. International Journal of Hospitality Management 11(1), 47-63. - Clark, M. (1993) Communication and social skills: perceptions of hospitality managers. Employee Relations 15(2), 51-60. - Dale, C. and Robinson, N. (2001) The theming of tourism education: a three-domain approach. - International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 13(1), 30-34. - Dewar, K., Sayers, J., Meyer, D. (2002) Hopes, dreams and reality: an investigation into the expectations and experiences of the tourism graduates. Journal of Teaching in Travel and Tourism 2(1), 1-18 - Drummond, H. and Chell, E. (2001) Life’s chances and choices. Personnel Review 30(2), 186-202. Emenheiser, D. A, Clay, J. M. and Palakurthi, R. (1998) Profi les of successful restaurant managers for recruitment and selection in the US. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 10(2), 54-62. - Fornäs, J. and Bolin, G. (eds.) (1995) Youth Culture in Late Modernity. London: Sage. - Getz, D. (1994) Students’ work experiences, perceptions and attitudes towards careers in hospitality and tourism: a longitudinal case study in Spey Valley, Scotland. International Journal of Hospitality Management 13(1) 25-37. - Gilbert, D. and Guerrier, Y. (1997) UK hospitality managers past and present. The Service Industries Journal 17(1), 115-132. - Go, F. M. (1994) Emerging issues in tourism education. In, W. F. Theobald (ed.) Global Tourism. The next decade. Oxford: Butterworth Heinemann, 330-346. - Hawkins, D. (1997) Paradigm shifts and major trends infl uencing tourism education in the New Age of tourism. In WTO (ed.) Human Capital in the Tourism Industry of the 21st Century. WTO: Madrid, 75-87. - High Level Group on Tourism and Employment (1998) European Tourism and New Partnerships or Jobs. Conclusions and recommendation of the high level group on tourism and employment. Bruxelles: EU-Commission. - Hjalager, A-M. and Andersen, S. (2001) Tourism employment: contingent work or professional career? Employee Relations 23(1/2), 115-129. - Hjalager, A-M. and Jeansson, N. R. (2002) Turismens arbejdsmarked i Øresundsregionen. København: Øresundsregionens Arbejdsmarkedspolitiske Råd http://www.aforesund.org/aforesund/.


- ILO (2001) Human Resources Development, Employment and Globalization in the Hotel, Catering, and Tourism Sector. Geneve: ILO. - Jameson, S. M. (2000) Recruitment and training in small fi rms. Journal of European Industrial Training 24(1), 43-49. - Jenkins, C. L. (1997) Tourism education systems, institutions and curricula: standardisations and certifi cation. In WTO (ed.) Human Capital in the Tourism Industry of the 21st Century. WTO: Madrid, 215-221. - Journal of Hospitality, Leisure, Sport and Tourism Education 2(2), 26-38. 36 Hjalager, A-M. (2003) Global Tourism Careers: Opportunities and Dilemmas Facing Higher Education in Tourism - Jordan, F. (1997) An occupational hazard? Sex segregation in tourism employment. Tourism Management 18(8), 525-534. - Kelley-Patterson, D. and George, C. (2001) Securing graduate commitment: an exploration of the comparative expectations of placement students, graduate recruits and human resource managers within the hospitality, leisure and tourism industries. Hospitality Management 20, 311-323. - Ladkin, A. (2002) Career analysis: a case study of hotel general managers in Australia. Tourism Management 23(4), 379-388. - Larsen, H. H. (ed.) (2001) Noget for noget? Rekruttering og fastholdelse af unge højtuddannede. København: Berlingske Annoncecenter. - Leslie, D. (1993) Higher education for hospitality and tourism: A European dimension. International Journal for Hospitality Management 12(1), 101-107. - McKercher, B., Williams, A. and Coglan, I. (1995) Career progress of recent tourism graduates. Tourism Management 16(7), 541-545. - Purcell, K. (1996) The relationship between career and job opportunities: women’s employment in the hospitality industry as a microcosm of women’s employment. Women in Management 11(5), 17-24. - Purcell, K. and Quinn, J. (1996) Exploring the education-employment equation in hospitality management. International Journal of Hospitality Management 15(1), 51-68. - Richards, G. (ed.) (1995) European Tourism and Leisure Education: Trends and prospects. Tilburg: Tilburg University Press. - Richards, G. (2001) Mobility in the European Tourism Sector. The role of transparency and recognition of vocational qualifi cations, Luxembourg. Thessaloniki: Cedefop Panorama Series. - Ross, G. F. (1997) Hospitality/tourism job application and educational expectation. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 9(3) 124-127. - Ryan, C. (1995) Tourism courses: A new concern for new times? Tourism Management 16(2), 97-100. Stuart, M. (2002) Critical infl uences on tourism as a subject in UK higher education: lecturer perspectives. Journal of Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism Education 1(1), 5-15. - Szivas, E. and Riley, M. (1999) Tourism employment during economic transition Annals of Tourism Research 26(4), 747-771. - Tepeci, M. and Bartlett, A. L. B. (2002) The hospitality industry culture profi le: a measure of individual values, organizational culture, and person-organization fi t as predictors of job satisfaction and behavioral intentions. The International Journal of Hospitality Management, 21(2), 151-171. Universum (2001) www.universum.se. - Westlander, G. (1999) People at Work. Lund: Studentlitteratur.


O problemă de tip Laplace pentru latici regulate cu obstrucţii secţiuni circulare D. BARILLA email:[email protected] A. FEMINÓ [email protected] A. PUGLISI [email protected] E. SAITTA [email protected] Universitatea din Messina B. TOADER [email protected] Universitatea Creştină “Dimitrie Cantemir”

Abstract

În această lucrare, calculăm probabilitatea ca un segment având o poziţie aleatoare şi lungime constantă să intersecteze o latură a unei latici regulate cu obstrucţii secţiuni circulare. Obţinem apoi, drept cazuri particulare, formula unei probabilităţi stabilită deja de Caristi şi de Stoka, precum şi formula probabilităţii lui Laplace. Rezultatele pot fi utile pentru posibile aplicaţii în economie şi în inginerie, în particular la rezolvarea problemelor de transport. Cuvinte cheie: probabilitate geometrică, geometrie stochastică, mulţimi aleatoare, mulţimi convexe aleatoare şi geometrie integrală.

1. Introducere

Pornind de la unele probleme studiate recent în articolele [1] şi [2], considerăm, în această lucrare, o latice regulată cu celula fundamentală reprezentată în fi gura 1 şi calculăm probabilitatea ca un segment având o poziţie aleatoare şi lungime constantă să intersecteze o latură a acestei latici, adică probabilitatea ca segmentul respectiv să intersecteze o latură a celulei fundamentale a laticii regulate. Drept cazuri particulare ale studiului nostru,


obţinem formula unei probabilităţi stabilită deja în lucrarea [1], precum şi formula probabilităţii lui Laplace.

2. Celule cu obstrucţii secţiuni circulare

Fie ;,, mba laticea regulată având celula funda mentală 0C reprezentată în fi gura 1, unde ),(min< bam , iar

2 este un unghi

arbitrar. Obstrucţiile sunt secţiuni circulare de două tipuri:Figura 1

Avem: .

4sin2=

2

0mabCaria (1)

Considerăm un segment s având o poziţie aleatoare şi lungime

constantă l , cu

2,min< mbmal , şi calculăm probabilitatea intP

ca acest segment să intersecteze o latură a laticii, adică probabilitatea ca segmentul s să intersecteze o latură a celulei fundamentale 0C . Poziţia segmentului s este determinată de mijlocul său O şi de unghiul pe care segmentul îl formează cu latura CD a celulei fundamentale .0C


Pentru a calcula probabilitatea intP , considerăm poziţiile limită ale segmentului s pentru o valuare fi xată a lui . Fie 0C poligonul obţinut din aceste poziţii, reprezentat în fi gura 2:

Figura 2

Conform fi gurii 2, putem scrie:

11

100 )( =ˆ

iicariaCariaCaria (2)


Considerăm fi gura următoare: Figura 3

Din relaţia 8

= 2

21mBBBcircularesectiuniiaria ,

rezultă că

8sin2

sinsin=22

21mlcariacaria

(3)

Avem, de asemenea,

sinsin

2sin

2=3

lmalcaria (4)

şi, în mod similar,

8

sin= 2

21 mCCcircularisegmentuluaria

şi

8sin

2cos

2sin

2=

2

4mmlcaria . (5)


Înlocuind cu , obţinem 8

sin2

sin2

cos2

=)(2

9mmlcaria . (6)

Avem şi

8=

2

21mEEEcircularesectiuniiaria

şi atunci

8sin2

sin2sin=22

7mlcaria

(7)

şi

sin22

=5lmbcaria

. (8)

Procedând asemănător, obţinem

2sin

2sinsin=6

llbcaria (9)

şi

sin2sin

2sin2

=8llmacaria . (10)

De asemenea,

2sin22

=10lmbcaria (11)

şi

sin2sin

sin=11llbcaria . (12)


Înlocuind în (2) expresiile (3), (4), (5), (6), (7), (8), (9), (10), (11) şi (12), obţinem

8sin2

sinsin=ˆ22

00mlCariaCaria

sin

2sinsin

2llma

8sin

2cos

2sin

2

2mml

8sin

2sin

2cos

2

2mml

8sin2

sin2sin 22 ml

2sin

2sinsinsin

22llblmb

sin2sin

2sin2

llma

2sin

22lmb

=sin

2sinsin

llb

cos2sin

22sin2

2= 0

mbalCaria

2cos

22cos2

22

2mbmambl

sin2

2sin2

sin22 ml

. (13)


Notăm cu M mulţimea segmentelor s al căror mijloc se găseşte în celula fundamentală 0C şi cu N mulţimea segmentelor s conţinute în întregime în celula fundamentală 0C . Atunci putem scrie (a se vedea [4]):

,1=MNPint

(14)

unde este măsura Lebesgue în planul euclidian. Calculăm măsurile )(M şi )(N folosind măsura cinematică a lui Poincaré (a se vedea [3]).

Dacă x şi y sunt coordonatele mijlocului segmentului s , iar este unghiul de mai sus, atunci putem scrie

0000,0

=== CariadCariadxdydMCyx

(15)

şi

=ˆ== 000

ˆ,0

dCariadxdydNCyx

sin2sin

22sin2

20mbalCaria

2cos

22cos2

22

2mbmambl

=sin2

2cos4

cos0

22

ml

sin2sin

22sin20

mbaCaria

2cos

22cos2

22 mbmamb

2sin

42cos1

2cos1

22 mll . (16)


Din relaţiile (2), (14), (15) şi (16), obţinem

sin2sin

22sin2

4sin2

1=2

mbamab

Pint

cos12cos

22cos2

22 mbmamb

2sin

42cos1

2

22 mll

. (17)

Pentru

2= , celula fundamentală devine un dreptunghi cu laturile

a şi b2 şi cu patru sferturi de cerc de rază 2m

. În acest caz, probabilitatea (17) devine

42

2122

=2

22

mab

mllbaP ,

formulă obţinută deja în [1]. În plus, pentru 0m , obţinem formula probabilităţii lui Laplace:

abllbaP

222=

2

.

Bibliografi e

[1] Caristi, G., Stoka, M. (în curs de apariţie). A Laplace type problem for a regular lattice with convex-concave cell and different obstacles, General Mathematics. [2] Caristi, G., Stoka, M. (în curs de apariţie). A Laplace type problem for a regular lattice with obstacles (I), Atti. Acc. Sci. Torino. [3] Poincaré, H. (1912). Calcul des probabilitiés, 2nd ed. Carré, Paris. [4] Stoka, M. (1975-1976). Probabilités géométriques de type Buffon dans le plan euclidien, Atti Acc. Sci. Torino, Vol. 110, 53-59.


A LAPLACE TYPE PROBLEM FOR REGULAR LATTICES WITH CIRCULAR

SECTION OBSTACLES D. BARILLA A. FEMINÓ A. PUGLISI E. SAITTA Universitatea din Messina B. TOADER Universitatea Creştină “Dimitrie Cantemir”

Abstract

In this paper, we compute the probability that a segment of random position and of constant length intersects a side of a regular lattice with circular sections obstacles. In particular, we obtain the formula of a probability already computed by Caristi and Stoka, as well as the formula of the Laplace probability. The results can be used for possible applications in economy and engineering, in particular for transportation problems. Keywords: geometric probability, stochastic geometry, random sets, random convex sets and integral geometry.

1. Introduction

In connection with some recent work (see [1], [2]), we consider a regular lattice with the fundamental cell represented in fi gure 1, and we compute the probability that a segment of random position and of constant length intersects a side of the lattice, i.e. the probability that the segment intersects a side of the fundamental cell. As particular cases of our study, we obtain the formula of a probability already computed in [1], and the formula of the Laplace probability.

2 . Cells with circular section obstacles

Let ;,, mba be the regular lattice with the fundamen tal cell 0C represented in Figure 1, where ),(min< bam and

2 is an

angle. The obstacles are circular sections of two different types.


Fig. 1

We have: .

4sin2=

2

0mabCaria (1)

We consider a segment s of random position and of constant length

l with

2,min< mbmal , and we compute the probability intP that this

segment intersects a side of the lattice, i.e. the probability that the segment s intersects a side of the fundamental cell 0C . The position of the segment s is determined by its middle point O and by the angle that the segment forms with the side CD of the fundamental cell .0C In order to compute the probability intP , we consider the limit positions of the segment s for a fi xed value of . Let 0C be the polygon obtained from these positions as in Figure 2:


Fig. 2

From fi gure 2, we may write:

11

100 )( =ˆ

iicariaCariaCaria (2)


We consider the following fi gure: Fig. 3

From

8=

2

21mBBBsectioncirculararea ,

it follows that

8sin2

sinsin=22

21mlcareacarea

(3)

We also have

sinsin

2sin

2=3

lmalcarea . (4)

Similarly, we have

8sin=

2

21 mCCsegmentcirculararea

and

8

sin2

cos2

sin2

=2

4mmlcarea . (5)


Replacing with , we obtain

8

sin2

sin2

cos2

=)(2

9mmlcarea . (6)

We also have that

8

=2

21mEEEsectioncirculararea

and then

8sin2

sin2sin=22

7mlcarea

(7)

and

sin22

=5lmbcarea

. (8)

Similarly, we obtain

2sin

2sinsin=6

llbcarea (9)

and

sin2sin

2sin2

=8llmacarea . (10)

Also,

2sin22

=10lmbcarea (11)

and

sin2sin

sin=11llbcarea . (12)


Replacing in (2) the expressions (3), (4), (5), (6), (7), (8), (9), (10), (11) and (12), we obtain:

8sin2

sinsin=ˆ22

00mlCareaCarea

sin

2sinsin

2llma

8

sin2

cos2

sin2

2mml

8

sin2

sin2

cos2

2mml

8sin2

sin2sin 22 ml

2sin

2sinsinsin

22llblmb

sin2sin

2sin2

llma

2sin

22lmb

=sin

2sinsin

llb

cos2sin

22sin2

2= 0

mbalCarea

2cos

22cos2

22

2mbmambl

sin2

2sin2

sin22 ml

. (13)


We denote by M the set of segments s that have the middle point in the fundamental cell 0C and by N the set of segments s completely contained in the fundamental cell 0C . Then we may write (see [4]):

,1=MNPint

(14)

where is the Lebesgue measure in the Euclidean plane. We compute the measures )(M and )(N by using the kinematic measure of Poincaré (see [3]). If x and y are the coordinates of the middle point of the segment s and is the angle from above, then we may write

0000,0

=== CareadCareadxdydMCyx

(15)

and

=ˆ== 000

ˆ,0

dCareadxdydNCyx

sin2sin

22sin2

20mbalCarea

2cos

22cos2

22

2mbmambl

=sin2

2cos4

cos0

22

ml

sin2sin

22sin20

mbaCarea

2cos

22cos2

22 mbmamb

2sin

42cos1

2cos1

22 mll . (16)


From (2), (14), (15) and (16), we obtain

sin2sin2

2sin2

4sin2

1=2

mbamab

Pint

cos12cos

22cos2

22 mbmamb

2sin

42cos1

2

22 mll

. (17)

For 2

= , the fundamental cell becomes a rectangle with sides a

and b2 and with four quarter-circles of radius 2m

. In this case, the probability (17) becomes:

42

2122

=2

22

mab

mllbaP , ,

a formula already obtained in [1]. Moreover, for 0m , we obtain the formula of the Laplace probability:

ab

llbaP222=

2

.

References

[1] Caristi, G. and Stoka, M. (to appear). A Laplace type problem for a regular lattice with convex-concave cell and different obstacles, General Mathematics. [2] Caristi, G. and Stoka, M. (to appear). A Laplace type problem for a regular lattice with obstacles (I), Atti. Acc. Sci. Torino. [3] Poincaré, H. (1912). Calcul des probabilitiés, 2nd ed. Carré, Paris. [4] Stoka, M. (1975-1976). Probabilités géométriques de type Buffon dans le plan euclidien, Atti Acc. Sci. Torino, Vol. 110, 53-59.


Publicare/Diseminare

Rezultatele Recensământului Populaţiei şi al Locuinţelor (RPL 2011) Institutul Naţional de Statistică a publicat recent datele statistice ofi ciale privind „Populaţia stabilă (rezidentă) - structură demografi că” - vol I1, în scopul diseminării către toate categoriile de utilizatori. Publicarea rezultatelor RPL 2011 reprezintă - în opinia noastră - una dintre lucrările de mare valoare, datele statistice fi ind prezentate pe macroregiuni, regiuni de dezvoltare, judeţe şi categorii de localităţi - în structură, după diferite caracteristici specifi ce de grupare. Referindu-se la întreaga activitate desfăşurată, Tudorel Andrei - preşedintele INS, menţionează în Cuvânt înainte: „Cu acest prilej, dorim să adresăm mulţumirile noastre tuturor celor care, prin sprijinul şi contribuţia lor la pregătirea, organizarea, efectuarea şi prelucrarea datelor recensământului populaţiei şi locuinţelor, au asigurat succesul acestei importante lucrări de interes naţional”.

Este de remarcat faptul că autorii, specialişti din Direcţia Generală de Statistică Socială şi Demografi e, din Direcţia Generală de IT şi Infrastructură Statistică au elaborat şi prezentat în volumul I inclusiv o utilă şi cuprinzătoare Notă metodologică. Sunt menţionate importante precizări începând de la cadrul legal pentru efectuarea înregistrărilor: OG nr. 36/2007, Legea 5/2008, HG 1502/2009 - cu modifi cările şi competările ulterioare, respectându-se recomandările din Regulamentul CE nr. 763/2008 al Parlamentului European şi al Consiliului privind recensământul populaţiei şi al locuinţelor. Nota metodologică cuprinde succesiv şi precizări cu privire la momentul de referinţă, modul de prezentare a datelor, populaţia stabilă (rezidentă), reşedinţa obişnuită, domiciliul, vârsta, locul naşterii, starea civilă legală, anul încheierii căsătoriei, starea civilă de fapt, anul constituirii uniunii consensuale, numărul copiilor născuţi - vii, cetăţenia, etnia, reşedinţa anterioară, anul stabilirii ultimei reşedinţe în localitatea de recenzare, nivelul de educaţie al instituţiei de învăţământ absolvite, nivelul instituţiei de învăţământ pe care o urmează o

1. Celelalte rezultate ale RPL 2011 vor fi publicate în alte volume, potrivit programului stabilit de INS


persoană, forma de proprietate a instituţiei de învăţământ, utilizarea internetului, statutul activităţii curente, populaţia activă şi populaţia inactivă. Prezentăm câteva dintre precizările formulate privind populaţia stabilă (rezidentă): „Populaţia stabilă (rezidentă) a României include: - persoanele de cetăţenie română, străină sau fără cetăţenie cu domiciliul în România care la momentul recensământului se afl au pe teritoriul ţării - persoane prezente sau temporar absente, plecate în străinătate pentru o perioadă mai mică de 12 luni; - persoanele de cetăţenie română, străină sau fără cetăţenie venite pe teritoriul ţării de peste 12 luni (la lucru, în căutarea unui loc de muncă, la studii, în interes de afaceri etc.), care aveau doar reşedinţa obişnuită în România - persoane venite pentru o perioadă îndelungată; - persoanele de cetăţenie română plecate în străinătate în cadrul reprezentanţelor diplomatice consulare şi comerciale sau al reprezentanţelor organizaţiilor internaţionale şi membrii familiilor lor, personalul forţelor armate româneşti în străinătate, personalul fl otei comerciale navale şi aeriene, precum şi corespondenţii de presă care la momentul recensământului se afl au temporar pe teritoriul altor ţări. Nu s-au cuprins în populaţia stabilă (rezidentă) a ţării: - persoanele de cetăţenie română, străină sau fără cetăţenie cu domiciuliul în România plecate în străinătate de cel puţin 12 luni sau cu intenţia de a rămâne în străinătate o perioadă de cel puţin 12 luni: la lucru, în căutarea unui loc de muncă, la studii, în interes de afaceri etc - persoane plecate pentru o perioadă îndelungată; - persoanele de cetăţenie străină sau fără cetăţenie venite în România pentru o perioadă mai mică de 12 luni - persoane temporar prezente; - persoanele de cetăţenie străină prezente în România în cadrul reprezentanţelor diplomatice consulare şi comerciale sau al reprezentanţelor organizaţiilor internaţionale şi membrii familiilor lor, personalul forţelor armate străine, personalul fl otei comerciale, navale şi aeriene, precum şi corespondenţii de presă străini care la momentul recensământului se afl au temporar pe teritoriul ţării. Volumul I cu rezultatele RPL 2011 privind „Populaţia stabilă (rezidentă) - Structură demografi că” - tipărit pe suport de hârtie - cuprinde 1759 de pagini, un număr de 62 de tabele şi grafi ce deosebit de sugestive. Grafi ca volumului s-a realizat în INS, la Direcţia de Editare a Publicaţiilor Statistice. Sunt prezentate inclusiv serii de date statistice privind numărul populaţiei la recensămintele din anii 1948, 1956, 1966, 1977, 1992, 2002 şi 2011 - pe judeţe şi categorii de localităţi.


Comparativ cu numărul populaţiei ţării înregistrat la Recensământul din 25 ianuarie 1948 (15.872.624) s-a ajuns la 20.121.641 (Recensământul din 20 octombrie 2011). Cel mai mare număr al populaţiei României a fost înregistrat la Recensământul din 7 ianuarie 1992 (22.810.035). În volumul I, pentru un număr de 12 tabele s-a făcut următoarea precizare: „Informaţii suplimentare, cu grad de detaliere mai mare sunt disponibile doar pe suport CD”. Coordonarea întregii activităţi pentru apariţia publicaţiei s-a asigurat de Tudorel Andrei - preşedintele INS şi Elena Mihaela Iagăr - vicepreşedinte. Diseminarea către utilizatori a volumelor tipărite la Institutul Naţional de Statistică, cuprinzând Rezultatele RPL 2011, se realizează eşalonat începând cu luna octombrie 2013.

Grupaj realizat deCristina SACALĂ

Ioan B. GÂLCEAVĂ


Responsabil de număr: prof. univ. dr. Constantin AnghelacheDirector: Cristina SACALĂ

Echipa logistică: Oana NICOLAU, Nicolae IONESCU, Gheorghe VAIDA-MUNTEAN

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