uarterly ReviewTaiwan Real Estate

(2017 Q3) Q

Birsk, used with perm

ission

2 Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty Taiwan Real Estate Quarterly Review (2017 Q3) 3

台灣蘇富比國際房地產 研究報告 (Q3 2017)

房地產市場概要

依六都地政局公佈今年前三季移轉棟數，六

都共計約 15萬棟，仍以新北市 3萬 8816棟

最多，較去年同期成長 29.82%，台中市累

計也較去年成長 24.93%；高雄市前三季較

去年同期成長 14.4%，台北市前三季達 1萬

7151棟，也較去年同期成長 8.41%。去年房

市交易量受稅制影響而較往年減少，今年六

都公布的前三季移轉棟數與去年同期相比，

約有三成的成長。但若與前年相較之下，成

長幅度明顯減少，而台北市約減少一成，減

幅最大，由於去年整年交易低落，造成比較

值較低的情況，因此與去年同期相比交易量

往往都呈現上升。 九月買賣移轉棟數，新

北市為 4,788棟，相較上月增加約 11.9%，

是六都中唯一成長的縣市，其餘五都均衰

退，其中台北市為 1,948棟，衰退約 8.5%；

桃園市為2,926棟，衰退約4.2%；台中市3,280

棟，衰退約 4.1%；台南市 1,573棟，衰退約

16.5%，為六都中衰退幅度最大的；高雄市

為 2,658棟，衰退約 11.7%。九月買賣移轉

棟數是反應前月份的實際房市交易狀況，該

時期仍是房市淡季，加上碰到傳統民俗月，

買盤多數早已發生在八月份，整體移轉量受

到民俗月、淡季影響。

根據營建署的第二季住宅價格指數，全國

指數為 113.98，相較上季 113.48，呈現微幅

上漲，幅度約 0.44%，至於六都本季指數，

台北市為 98.89，相較上季微幅上揚 0.66%；

新北市為 105.63、跌幅約 0.53%；桃園市為

111.56、跌幅約 1.20%；台中市為 123.26、

漲幅約 0.16%；台南市為 122.18、漲幅約

0.84%；高雄市為 123.75、漲幅約 1.09%，即

便第二季全國住宅指數出現小幅上漲，但幅

度不及前波高點，因此僅能視為回穩。台北

市住宅價格仍是低於基期，這主因是過去台

北市價格上漲幅度較大，在市場觀望氛圍較

為濃厚的情況下，修正幅度自然較大。

新北市及桃園市本季呈現下跌，桃園

市則是連續二季下跌，指數為近一年

新低；台中市、台南市本季雖然上漲，

但漲幅較低，也未突破前一次的高點，

顯示趨勢上雖屬偏弱，但價格出現支

撐跡象。而去年全面實施房地合一稅

造成市場交易量大幅萎縮後，目前房

市已逐步回到基本面，如前瞻基礎建

設計畫的推動、社會住宅的興建、包

租代管政策推動、都市更新條例修正

及危老屋重建條例的實施、實價登錄

制度更趨透明。基於政策直接影響房

市，導致市場方向不明確，買家可能

會持續抱持觀望心態。

住展風向球九月總分走低至 29.7分，

較上月微減 0.8分，對應燈號仍為藍

燈，已連續三個月亮出藍燈。因今年

民俗鬼月較晚，928檔期購屋旺季來得

慢，買賣雙方態度都較偏保守，是房

市無法脫離藍燈的主因。六項統計指

標中，成屋供給量、廣告量、議價率

與來人組數等四項指標持平，預售供

給量與成交組數則下滑，據資料顯示，

雖然今年民俗鬼月房市略顯冷淡，但

新推案蜂擁而出、積極性的促銷手段

頻頻的狀況來看，銷售業者對 928檔

期、及第四季房市抱持高度期待，預

期十月房市在推案量爆發與廣告量回

彈的情況下，若買氣保持穩定，則風

向球分數可望擺脫藍燈，轉亮黃藍燈。

據住展統計，北台灣第三季新成屋、

預售屋房價漲多跌少，其中台北市每

坪均價新台幣 83萬元，創此波段的新

低，若拉長至近一年來看，房價依然

為小跌，而新北市、桃園市、基隆市

Overview on the Real Estate Market

According to the information released from the Departments of

Land Administration of the six special municipalities, numbers of

building ownership transfers totaled approximately 150,000 units

for the first three quarters this year in the six special municipalities,

among which New Taipei City topped at 38,816 units, up by

29.82% YoY; Taichung City grew by 24.93% YoY; Kaohsiung City

grew by 14.4% YoY; Taipei City reached 17,151 units, up by 8.41%

YoY. Housing transaction volume for last year declined than the

years before it due to impacts from the tax regime. This year,

according to the information from the six special municipalities,

numbers of housing ownership transfers for the first three quarters

grew by about 30% YoY. However, when compared to the data of

t2015, such growth shrank significantly, with Taipei City shrinking

the most by roughly 10%. Since the real estate market was quite

inactive in 2016, causing the comparison basis to be lower than

usual, the numbers of transactions are thus going up in YoY

comparison. Looking at housing ownership transfers in September,

New Taipei City accounted for 4,788 units, up by 11.9% than the

previous month, making it the only city that showed growth, while

the rest five special municipalities indicated a decline: Taipei City

accounted for 1,948 units, declined by roughly 8.5%; Taoyuan City

2,926 units, declined by roughly 4.2%; Taichung City 3,280 units,

declined by roughly 4.1%; Tainan City 1,573 units, declined the most

among the six special municipalities by roughly 16.5%; Kaohsiung

City 2,658 units, declined by roughly 11.7%. Housing ownership

transfers in September reflects the actual transactions occurred in

the previous month, when it was still an off-season for the housing

market. Along with the impacts of the traditional Ghost Month,

most purchase orders had happened in August. The overall transfer

volume was affected by the Ghost Month and the off-season.

According to the 2Q House Price Index (HPI) issued by the

Construction and Planning Agency, the nationwide index was 113.98,

up slightly by roughly 0.44% QoQ from last quarter's 113.48; As

for the index for this quarter for the six special municipalities, Taipei

City was 98.89, up slightly by 0.66% QoQ; New Taipei City 105.63,

declined by 0.53% QoQ; Taoyuan City 111.56, declined roughly

by 1.20% QoQ. Taichung City 123.26, up by roughly 0.16% QoQ;

Tainan City 122.18, up by roughly 0.84% QoQ; Kaohsiung City

123.75, up by roughly 1.09% QoQ. Despite the 2Q House Price

Index (HPI) showed a slightly increase, its magnitude did not reach

the former peak. Therefore, such increase can only be regarded

as a sign of stabilization. Housing price in Taipei City remained

lower than that in the base period. This is because its volatile price

increase in the past has contributed to a volatile price correction

amid a wait-and-see market atmosphere. For this quarter, New

Taipei City and Taoyuan City featured a downward spiral, among which

Taoyuan City posted a decline for two consecutive quarters, with its

index hitting a new low within a year. Although Taichung City and Tainan

City showed an increase this quarter, the magnitude was comparatively

too low to reach the former peak, yet such a trend, weak as it is, can be

interpreted as a sign of support for price. The housing market, which

was dampened due to significantly shrinking transaction volume last

year resulted from the fully implementation of the integrated housing

and land tax, has gradually returned to the fundamentals, evidenced by

the launch of Forward-Looking Infrastructure Development Program,

construction of social housing, implementation of subleasing of privately

owned units, amendment to Urban Renewal Act, the launch of Statute

for Expediting Reconstruction of Urban Unsafe and Old Buildings,

and Registration of the Actual Selling Price of Real Estate being more

transparent. Based on the assumption that policy may directly affect the

housing market and thereby post an unclear market trend, buyers are

likely to keeping holding a wait-and-see attitude.

The real estate market indicators published by My Housing magazine

scored low to 29.7 points in September, showing a mild decrease by

0.8 points than that of last month, and marking a blue light, which is

the third blue light for three months in a row. The reason why the

market failed to get rid of the blue light is because that the late arrival

of the Ghost Month this year had brought about a late arrival of the

peak season for home buying, namely, the “9/28 promotional season”,

thereby making both buyers and sellers more cautious. Among the

six statistical indicators, four indicators, which are supply of readily

available house, advertising, price negotiations, and potential buyer

visits, remained constant; the other two indicators, supply of pre-sold

house and numbers of concluded deals, declined. Although the statistics

indicated a mild housing market cool-down in the Ghost Month, it also

featured a spike in the number of new building projects and proactive

promotion campaigns, which could be seen as signs that developers

expected fairly high on the “9/28 promotional season” and the 4Q

housing market. It is expected that in October, when a significant

number of new proper ties are released into the market and the

amount of advertisement increases, and if the sales numbers remain

stable, the yellow blue light will be back and blue light will be gone.

According to My Housing magazine statistics, the 3Q housing prices for

newly-built house and pre-sold house in Northern Taiwan are more

of an increase than a decrease. Average unit price in Taipei City hit a

record low in the period at NT$830,000/ping, yet the price was only

a mild decline if being compared to that within the year. Housing price

in New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Keelung City, and Hsinchu area lifted,

4 Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty Taiwan Real Estate Quarterly Review (2017 Q3) 5

台灣蘇富比國際房地產 研究報告 (Q3 2017)

與新竹地區等縣市房價上揚，僅台北市

與宜蘭地區房價走弱。新推案價格持續

墊高，部分建案甚至挑戰新高價；不過

銷售期較長的舊建案仍維持讓利姿態，

以維持得來不易的買氣。台北市雖然第

三季房價創波段新低，但以總價三仟萬

以下的房型降價有感，由於新北市第二

季有感讓利案較多，成交狀況相對穩

定；房屋銷售推得動，業者降價的意願

相對較低，也因銷售較為穩定，讓第三

季讓利案數量減少，少部分的建案價格

微幅調漲，推升整體房價。

總經概要

據主計總處報告指出，本年第二季

初步統計的經濟成長率為 2.13%，預

計全年經濟成長率為 2.11%，明年為

2.27%，消費者物價指數（CPI）本年上

漲 0.66%，明年為 0.87%。內需因景氣

回溫，半導體業者高階製程投資延續，

加以積極擴大公共建設，可望帶動國內

消費與投資，但因實質薪資增額有限，

人口紅利漸失，牽制了部分民間消費成

長力道，預測今年與明年國內經濟成長

率分別為 2.11%及 2.27%。此外，消費

者物價指數預估中央銀行到明年第 1季

維持利率不變的機率極高，據央行最新

資料顯示，央行估明年消費者物價指數

（CPI）年增率將由今年的 0.65%竄升

近 1倍至 1.12%。若維持利率不變，好

不容易轉正的實質利率，明年恐由正再

度轉負。市場解讀，明年實質利率若轉

負，將導致央行升息壓力漸增。央行指

出明年有三大要素將推高物價，為基本

工資調高、軍公教調薪，及今年六月

調高菸稅，其遞延效果將持續到明年九

月，將增加通膨壓力。

Overview on the Overall Economy

According to the repor t of Directorate General of Budget,

Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, R.O.C., the preliminary

statistics for the 2Q indicated that the 2Q economic growth rate

was 2.13%, and the expected annual economic growth rate was

2.11% for this year, and 2.27% for next year ; he consumer price

index (CPI) increases by 0.66% this year and by 0.87% next year.

Domestic consumption and investment are expected to be driven

up by domestic demands resulting from economic recovery, the

continuance of investment on advanced manufacturing process by the

semiconductor industry, and the proactive expansion of infrastructure

construction; however, a portion of domestic consumption growth

is curbed by limited real wage increase, and the gradually fading

demographic dividend. The expected domestic economic growth rate

for this year and next is 2.11% and 2.27%, respectively. In addition,

judging from the consumer price index (CPI), the Central Bank

is expected to hold its interest rate unchanged till 1Q next year.

According to the latest data from the Central Bank, the Central Bank

estimated that the annual growth rate of consumer price index (CPI)

next year would nearly double to 1.12% from 0.65% this year. If the

interest rate is held unchanged, the rarely seen positive real interest

rate would reverse back to negative next year. Market interpretation

is that if the real interest rate turns negative next year, the Central

Bank will face a pressure to raise its interest rate. The Central Bank

pointed out three factors that would push up the commodity price

next year, namely, the increase in the minimum wages, pay raise for

the military personnel, civil servants and public school teachers, and

the tobacco tax which was increased this June. The effects of such

three factors will lag until September 2018 and increase the pressure

of inflation.

while housing price in Taipei City and Yilan area weakened. Prices for

newly launched building projects kept rising, with some even reaching

higher prices; however, the same thing cannot be said for old building

projects with already prolonged sales period, which still offered

price concession to maintain the rare buying mood. Although the

3Q housing price in Taipei City hit a record low in the period, and

it is mostly sensible in terms of price concession for houses valued

below NT$30 million. Transactions in New Taipei City were relatively

steady due to the fact that relatively more building projects offered

a sensible price concession. Developers were less willing to reduce

the price since the sales was steady. Steady sales also reduced the

number of building projects that offered a price concession in 3Q. A

small percentage of building projects slightly raised price, pushing the

overall housing price higher.

貸款利率方面，五大銀行指台灣銀行、土

地銀行、合作金庫銀行、第一銀行與華南

銀行，其承做房貸比重約占全體銀行四

成，因此被視為房市風向球，央行指出，

五大銀行九月新承做房貸金額為 399.56

億元，新承做房貸利率降至 1.633%，不

僅連五降、續創逾七年來新低，更為史上

次低紀錄，主因與銀行針對自住族群推出

優惠利率搶市以及遇到民俗月，因此使新

增房貸金額減少，從九月建物買賣移轉棟

數減少也可應證。

地政局最新統計實價登錄量價動態，全

北市交易量共 962件，較五月 1,001件減

少 39件，減幅 3.90％，較去年同期 988

件減少 26件，減幅 2.63％；但較去年平

均 865件增加 97件，增幅 11.21％，至於

交易總金額為 234.18億元，較去年同期

221.05億元增加 13.13億元，增幅 5.94％，

較去年平均 214.44 億元增加 19.74 億

元，增幅 9.21％，六月全市住宅價格指

數 108.75，較去年同期下跌 1.19％；大樓

住宅價格指數 116.09，較去年同期上漲

2.25％；公寓住宅價格指數 105.71，較去

年同期下跌 1.23％。資料顯示六月全市住

宅價格月線持續上漲，帶動季線及半年線

止跌回穩；觀察大樓與公寓價格表現，大

樓月線微幅上漲，然季線及半年線跌勢未

止；公寓近二月月線、季線及半年線均持

續上揚，價格趨勢表現優於大樓。從景氣

角度來看，今年國內外經濟都有成長，台

股萬點行情，台灣出口表現也優於之前，

整體經濟表現擁有較明顯的回溫，使得房

市有了穩固的支撐基礎。雖然目前房價呈

現盤整下修的狀態，但這樣的結果可以令

買家買氣的意願增加，但看跌房價的比重

仍屬於大眾心態。今年下半年買氣增加，

顯示部分買方對於房價已產生認同，買賣

雙方的價格認知拉進後交易量自然提升。

With respect to the mortgage rates, the mortgage loans assumed

by the five major banks, namely, Bank of Taiwan, Land Bank of

Taiwan, Taiwan Cooperative Bank, First Bank, and Hua Nan Bank,

accounted for 40% of the total mor tgage loans, and thereby

were seemed as a real estate market indicator. According to the

Central Bank, newly-assumed mortgage loans in September by

the five major banks totaled at NT$39.956 billion, with mortgage

rate dipping to 1.633%, marking a fifth consecutive decline, a

record low in seven years, and a second lowest ever. This may be

attributed to the decrease in mortgage loans due to the Ghost

Month, and the preferential interest rate offered by banks to self-

occupied buyers in order to grab the market share. This may

also be verified through the decrease in the numbers of building

ownership transfers.

According to the latest price-volume dynamics of Registration of

the Actual Selling Price of Real Estate issued by the Department of

Land Administration, transaction volume in Taipei City amounted

to 962 units, which went down by 39 units (3.9%) compared to

1,001 units in May; the number went down by 26 units (2.63%

YoY) compared to 988 units over the same period last year, and

increased by 97 units (11.21%) compared to last year’s average of

865 units. The total transaction value was NT$23.418 billion, which

increased by 1.313 billion (5.94% YoY) compared to NT$22.105

billion over the same period last year ; it increased by 1.974 billion

(9.21%) compared to last year’s average of NT$21.444 billion.

House Price Index (HPI) for the city in June sat at 108.75, down

by 1.19% YoY. House Price Index (HPI) for buildings sat at 116.09,

up by 2.25% YoY. House Price Index (HPI) for apartments sat at

105.71, down by 1.23% YoY. The data indicated a constant rise in

20 MA (monthly moving average) for housing price across the

city, thereby stabilizing the 60 MA (quar terly moving average)

and 120 MA (semi-annual moving average) ; Looking into the

price performance of buildings and apartments, the 20 MA for

buildings lifted slightly, yet the 60 MA and 120 MA of which kept

plummeting; the 40 MA (two-months moving average), 60 MA,

and 120 MA for apartments kept rising, posting a better price

trend than that of buildings. From an economic perspective, the

evident domestic and international growth, TAIEX hitting 10,000

points, better export performance of Taiwan, and the obvious

recovery of the overall economic performance all provide a solid

support for the housing market. Although housing price is in its

downward correction phase, such correction may stimulate the

buying mood of buyers. Nonetheless, anticipation of lower housing

price still prevails among the public. The increased buying mood in

the second half of 2017 proved recognition of the housing price

from some buyers. Transaction volume would naturally increase

when the recognition of housing price between buyers and sellers

became closer.

6 Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty Taiwan Real Estate Quarterly Review (2017 Q3) 7

台灣蘇富比國際房地產 研究報告 (Q3 2017)

資料來源：經濟部Source Data: MOEA

消費者物價指數 (2015-2017年增率)

2015

/03

2015

/04

2015

/05

2015

/06

2015

/07

2015

/08

2015

/09

2.9

-0.62

6.03

0.52.09

-26.49外食費

消費者物價指數

油料費

2015

/10

2015

/11

2015

/12

2016

/01

2016

/02

2016

/03

2016

/04

2016

/05

2016

/06

2016

/07

2016

/08

2016

/09

2016

/10

2016

/11

2016

/12

2017

/01

2017

/02

2017

/03

2017

/04

2017

/05

2017

/06

2017

/07

2017

/08

2017

/09

台灣每季GDP成長率%

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

-2.0%

0.1%

1.4%

3.9%

1.4%

2.7%

1.3%

2.9%3.2%

3.7%

3.6%

3.4%

3.8%

0.52% 0.10% 0.01%

-0.80%

0.69%

0.52%

1.23%2.05%

2.06%2.76%

3Q124Q12

1Q132Q13

3Q134Q13

1Q142Q14

3Q144Q14

1Q152Q15

3Q151Q16

2Q163Q16

4Q161Q17

2Q173Q17

4Q152Q12

資料來源：經濟部Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C. (MOEA)

資料來源：經濟部Source: MOEA

台灣每季出口金額

850

800

812

791

722700

681

750

700

650

6003Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q172Q16 3Q16 4Q16

出口金額(億美元)

出口金額 年增率

年增率(%)

5%

9%

13%

-15%

-11%

-7%

-3%

1%

687

713

777

721

757

838

702

627

資料來源：央行Source: Taiwan Central Bank

中央銀行利率

3.50%

3.00%

2.50%

2.00%

1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00%

2.616%

1.375%

1.030%

0.189%

% 金融業隔夜拆款利率

中央銀行重點現率 臺銀基準利率

十年期公債殖利率

2017

/09

2016

/12

2016

/11

2016

/10

2016

/09

2016

/08

2016

/07

2016

/06

2016

/05

2016

/04

2016

/03

2016

/02

2016

/01

2015

/12

2015

/11

2015

/10

2015

/09

2015

/08

2015

/07

2015

/06

2015

/05

2017

/08

2017

/07

2017

/06

2017

/05

2017

/04

2017

/03

2017

/02

2017

/01

8 Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty Taiwan Real Estate Quarterly Review (2017 Q3) 9

台灣蘇富比國際房地產 研究報告 (Q3 2017)

資料來源：央行Source: Taiwan Central Bank

五大銀行購屋貸款金額與利率

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%1,000

700

800

900

600

500

400

200

300

100

0

金額(NT$十億) (Amount NT$1bn) 貸款利率% (Rate)

購屋貸款金額 購屋貸款利率%

Jun-

10

Oct

-10

Feb-

11

Jun-

11

Oct

-11

Feb-

12

Jun-

12

Oct

-12

Feb-

13

Jun-

13

Oct

-13

Feb-

14

Jun-

14

Oct

-14

Feb-

15

Jun-

15

Oct

-15

Jun-

16

Feb-

16

Oct

-16

Feb-

17

Jun-

17

資料來源 : 內政部，住展Source: MOI，Myhousing Magazine

台北市房屋買賣轉移棟數及均價

25.733.1 33.2 35.1 37 38.1

44.752.9

57 53.2

65.268.5

74.1

84

92.487.5

83.9

45,007

37,333

47,778

55,311

62,55764,339

68,976

63,70964,112

63,61163,344

38,571 39,496

32,02329,904

21,500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

10,000

0

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000 100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

成交量 每坪均價/(NT$萬)

北市成交量 北市預售屋均價

49,918

全台大型商用不動產交易量 (億元)

2012.2Q

2012.3Q

2012.4Q

2013.1Q

2013.2Q

2013.3Q

2013.4Q

2014.1Q

2014.2Q

2014.3Q

2014.4Q

2015.1Q

2015.2Q

2015.3Q

2015.4Q

2016.1Q

2016.2Q

2016.3Q

343.3

519.1

246293.3

208.5

355.3335.1

95.9

154.7 157

105

337.6

226.3

84.9 8486.3 89.290.449 51.5

291

529.5

2016.4Q

2017.1Q

2017.2Q

2017.3Q

資料來源：台灣蘇富比國際房地產Source: Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty

Luxury Property Market

Transactions in the luxury property market have experienced a

cool down in recent years, and indeed the transaction price for

several luxury properties in recent months showed a softening

stance. For instance, according to the Registration of the Actual

Selling Price of Real Estate, the transaction price for several

luxurious properties located in Tianmu area, Taipei, namely, “Sky

Garden of Huaku”, "Park Lane", and "Wenhua Garden" softened

by about 10%. Luxury property transactions have been robust

in Tianmu. In the latest three months, there were five luxury

proper ty transactions in “Sky Garden of Huaku”, with the

unit price corrected downwards from NT$1.6 million/ping to

NT$1.26 million/ping. As for "Wenhua Garden", an iconic luxury

property sat at Qingcheng Street, the fifth floor of which was

transacted for a total of NT$514 million, with unit price at 1.817

million/ping. This was one of the three consecutive transactions

with the unit transaction price at above NT$1.8 million/ping. The

unit price was supported at NT$1.8 million/ping. As of last month,

there were 15 units of luxury property transacted in Tianmu, 11

units in Dazhi, and 11 units in Xinyi Commercial District. Da'an

Dist. had been a hot zone for luxury property. Except for “A

Better Tomorrow”, transactions of luxury property in the Eastern

District or Ren'ai Rd. were relatively muted. "Sotai Moon River",

the renowned waterfront luxury property in Dazhi, was traded

豪宅市場

近年豪宅交易市場一直處於較為冷卻的氛

圍，近幾個月的豪宅實際成交價，確實有

鬆動的現象，近期實價揭露北市天母地區

「華固天鑄」、「天母一莊」和「文華苑」

豪宅成交價鬆動約一成左右，天母地區豪

宅交易熱絡，近三個月「華固天鑄」豪宅

有五筆交易，每坪單價從新台幣 160萬元

修正到 126萬元。而慶城街上的指標豪宅

「文華苑」六月五樓成交每坪 181.7萬元，

總價 5.14億元，文華苑已連續三筆交易單

價維持在每坪 180萬元以上，在單價 180

萬元附近形成支撐。大直和天母地區截至

上個月，天母有十五筆豪宅交易，大直

十一筆，信義計畫區也有十一筆。以往豪

宅熱區的大安區，除了明日博豪宅的交易

較多，而在東區或仁愛路上的交易件數也

相對以往少了許多，大直知名水岸豪宅「首

泰月河」，以總價 1.73億元成交，創下該

10 Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty Taiwan Real Estate Quarterly Review (2017 Q3) 11

台灣蘇富比國際房地產 研究報告 (Q3 2017)

區新高價，而「代官山」年中成交高樓層物

件，總價約為 1.63億元，扣除車位每坪也來

到 210萬元。雖豪宅價格盤整中，但因景觀

優勢有著較顯著的抗跌特性，這些豪宅交易，

都為市場交易注入活絡的動能，相信豪宅市

場會逐漸回溫。

商辦市場

第三季商用不動產較去年同期相較之下有回

升現象，不但市場成交量回升，預期房價修

正的幅度也將減少，緊接著又進入傳統商辦

交易的年底旺季，預計第四季價量表現可望

更佳。租賃市場明後年供給量持續增加，短

期內租金上漲力道有限，空置率也會反轉向

上，預計今年底完工的台北南山人壽廣場，

for NT$163 million in total, setting a record-high price for

the area; the properties of upper floors of "Daikanyama" was

traded in mid-2017for NT$163 million, nearly NT$2.1 million/

ping even after deducting the price of parking lot from it. Due

to the scenery advantage and price resilience of luxurious

properties, their transactions have ingested enough power

into the market for a gradual recovery, though it is currently

in a correction phase.

Commercial Office Market

Commercial proper ty in 3Q flashed a sign of recovery

compared to the same period last year, with transaction

volume regained and lower housing pr ice correction

expected. The coming of the traditional peak season for

office property transactions at the end of year is expected to

boost the price-volume performance for the fourth quarter.

As for the leasing market, the supply for next year and next

two years will increase, rental rates are unlikely to gain bullish

momentum in the short term, and vacancy rate will increase.

北市商辦大樓空置率及租金行情

10.0%

9.0%

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%Q3 Q4

2012Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3

2014Q1 Q2 Q2Q3 Q3

2015 2016

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

2,150

2,100

2,050

2,000

1,950

1,900

1,850

1,800

2,200空置率 租金行情

空置率 租金(月/坪)

2,0322,023

2,052

2,053

2,0602,068

2,0752,043

2,054

2,098

2,095

2,084

2,089

2,083

2,076

2,070

2,041

2,100

2,168 2,166

2,165

8.1%8.8%

9.3%

8.9%8.4%

8.1%7.4%

7.4%

7.0%7.5%

7.2%

6.5% 5.0%4.9%

4.1%

4.0%3.8%

3.7%3.8%

5.9%

7.1%

2017

資料來源：台灣蘇富比國際房地產Source: Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty

將有機會挑戰租金新高價，在地標建築加持

下，月租金將有機會看齊台北 101，該大樓

今年底完工後，將讓信義計畫區頂級商辦市

場競爭更為競爭。另外，土地交易市場投資

買盤遲未出籠，導致前三季商用不動產、土

地累積成交金額並不理想。若第四季交易市

場未明顯提升，今年商用不動產、土地交易

市場都將面臨低於水準的交易量關卡，依資

料顯示，單宗金額超過 5億元的商用不動產

交易案也僅有五筆，光是中國信託商業銀行

賣給中國信託資產管理公司的統一國際大樓

部分樓層與三連大樓部分資產就占了兩筆，

整體而言，商用租賃市場穩定成長，商用買

賣方面依然缺少正向的支撐力道。此外近來

受到國內觀光熱潮漸退的影響，不少旅館業

者有求售的意向，其中位於旅館一級戰區的

大直「台北戀館」指標案，最新實價登錄顯

示，以 55.8億元成交，並售後回租，買方

為英屬維京群島商史賓特公司，此交易賣方

獲利了結，買家應著眼於完整街廓的土地價

值，換算其土地成單價每坪 345萬元，未來

可以透過容移或開放空間來增加總樓地板面

積。政府於近期也因應房屋稅和地價稅，大

幅度上漲，旅館業者需繳交的房地稅也跟著

加重，為減輕業者成本負擔，政府相關單位

研擬出稅賦減免的相關規定，雖還未正式核

定實施，但此政策正式實施後，相信對於相

關業者都將是受惠的。

房市政策展望

目前國內不動產市場景氣可謂是擺脫去年最

谷底，地方政府對房屋稅調整也有所收斂，

但現階段的房市政策也令房價跌、租金漲的

另一隱憂浮出檯面，因今年初政府實施租屋

新制，規範房東不得限制房客把租金支出申

報扣抵所得稅、不得禁止遷入戶籍，部分房

東開始找喊漲，把租賃所得課稅、管理費和

Nan Shan Plaza, which is expected to complete construction

at the end of year, is likely to set a record high rental rates.

By neighboring the landmark architecture, the monthly rental

rates are potential to be equal to that of Taipei 101. Once it is

completed by the end of the year, the office property market

in Xinyi District will become a more heated battlefield. Besides,

the disappearance of investment purchase orders has led to a

dismal accumulated transaction value for commercial property

and land in the first three quarters. If the transaction market

in 4Q is not improved substantially, commercial property and

land transaction will face an under-performed transaction

volume. Data shows that only five single commercial property

transactions exceeding NT$500 million, among which 2 are

contributed by CTBC Bank, who sold to its subsidiary, CTBC

Asset Management Co. (CTBC AMC) several floors of the

Uni-President International Building and parts of the “Sanlian

Building”. Overall, the commercial leasing market takes a

steady growing pace, while commercial trading market still

doesn’t see any positive support. Affected by fading domestic

tourism spree, some in the hotel industry intends to sell. The

iconic project, specifically, "Bellezza Taipei Hotel" in Dazhi, the

heated battle ground for the hotel industry, was sold to and

leased back from Sprinta Inc., with the total transaction value

of NT$5.58 billion, according to data from Registration of the

Actual Selling Price of Real Estate. The buyer took the profit

in this transaction. The buyer might take into consideration

the complete block of such hotel, and the land of which was

valued at an unit price of NT$3.45 million/ping, not to mention

that the total floor area of which could be increased in the

future by means of building capacity transfer or public open

space. In order to alleviate the cost burden assumed by the

hotel industry due to the significant rise in house tax and land

value tax recently, the competent authorities have developed

relevant policies on tax deduction, which policies, though not

yet approved and implemented, will be a good news to those

in the hotel industry and hotel investors after implementation.

Prospects of Housing Policy

The domestic real estate market has finally got rid of last year’s

slump, and local government has become more conservative

in adjusting the house tax. However, the current housing

policy also brings another concern to the surface: the fall in

housing price and the rise in rental rates. The newly launched

leasing system at the beginning of this year forbade landlords

to declare the lessee’s rental expense as their income

tax deductible, or prevent the lessee from moving his/her

12 Taiwan Sotheby's International Realty

台灣蘇富比國際房地產

LOCAL EXPERTSGLOBAL REACH

品牌傳承　名望威遠

蘇富比拍賣會自 1744 年創立以來，憑藉悠久的歷史與豐富經驗，以獨到的藝術眼光

及審慎的企業精神，成為國際享負盛名的拍賣會品牌。

跨越國際　領導業界

承襲蘇富比拍賣會的傳統，蘇富比國際房地產於 1976 年成立，主要業務為跨國房地

產代理機構，提供客戶最專業的豪宅仲介服務，並在全球豪宅銷售市場佔據領導的地

位。目前蘇富比國際房地產在全球 68 個國家設有超過 900 間服務據點，由 21,000+

名房地產顧問提供全方位的服務。

藝術生活　品位居家

2012 年 3 月台灣蘇富比國際房地產正式營運，我們從生活美學的角度出發，善用豐

富的全球行銷資源及寶貴的客戶資料庫網絡，透過專業的團隊，提供國內及國外住

宅、商辦、店面的買賣與租賃服務，更有移民、財務等諮詢服務。

拓及全球、深耕臺灣

水電費等所帶來的各種成本轉嫁到房租，

再加上這幾年有些投資客套牢，不想低

價賣房，所以紛紛先轉賣為租，轉進租

賃市場。不過，有更多的人想買房，在

房價連續下修三年來，寧可先租房子，

這種以租代買的租屋需求，也支撐租金

價格。展望 2018年，在房價未見底的局

勢、賣方讓利程度未足以吸引買家進場

的情況下，預期房價持續緩跌，除非房

市景氣反轉、止跌，成交量有感增加，

租屋市場客源開始轉租為買，才可能令

市場再次熱絡，整體而言，明年國內整

體住宅交易價量難有顯著的推升力道，

尤其是今年房市交易量年增率有機會達

一成，使得基期相對較高，顯然明年房

市將依然處於恢復階段。

household registration to the rented property. As such, landlords

began to raise the rental rates, adding into it with every cost

derived from the taxable rental revenue, the management fee, and

utilities. Some speculators were tied up in the housing market; being

unwilling to sell their house for a lower price, they turned from

the selling market to the leasing market. However, there are more

people who wish to buy a house. They would rather rent a house

even after housing price has declined for three consecutive years.

Such demands for leasing also support the rental rates. Looking

into 2018, housing price will steadily decline in consideration of the

housing price which hasn’t seen its bottom, and price concession

made by sellers which is not sufficient to attract buyers to enter

the market. Not until the housing market rebounds, or ceases to

fall, or transactions increase sensibly, will customers in the leasing

market start buying instead of leasing, thereby boosting the housing

market. All in all, domestic residential property market will not see

a substantial rise, especially when the annual growth rate of housing

transactions for this year is expected to reach 10%, raising the base

period. Obviously, housing market next year will be at its correction

phase.

very home is a masterpiece.E

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