Macro Trends in Technology

Dr Nares Damrongchai, STI

15 January 2010

Why Macro Trends?

Global map of science by discipline

The Scientific Century: Securing our Future Prosperity, The Royal Society (2010)

This map represents the enormous cross-disciplinary complexity of current scientific research. It depicts connections between disciplines according to cross-citations in journals in 2007. Colours and labels represent broad disciplines. Some fields, such as mathematics, are so pervasive throughout the research system that they have no single label Connections with and between the natural sciences and the social sciences, arts and humanities will also be increasingly vital for innovation, particularly in the services sector.

Technology Trends

Gartner Hype Cycle 2009

Conditions for the wide-spread of technology

S social

T technological

E economical

E environmental

P political

Outside-in vs Inside-out

STEEPhow they influence each otherhow technology development are driven by demand from other forceshow other forces are driven by key technology in turnGMOs (gene splicing) are from science discoveryinternet comes from security

technology that change business modelInternettechnology that change the environmentgeoengineering

Key Technologies

Genomics

Batteries and electric cars

Internet

Stem cell therapy

Nanotechnology

Batteries and electric cars

Source: HiTec Energy Limited

electric carsbattery will revolutionize more than carsmuch info from my delicous bookmarks ()

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Availability: Fall 2010Source: www.powermat.com

Mobile Life Scenario

Internet

Near zero marginal cost economyNo hidden cost, No free lunchRadio Head

Nanotechnology

Source: National Nanotechnology Center, 2009

Environmental friendly

Genomics

genomic and GMOsrecent announcement by Greenpeacerice production decline large scale production of GM rice in China starts 2011 global status 1 global status 2 genomics - the global opportunity

Synthetic Life

Geneticist discusses synthetic life breakthrough

Understanding Drivers

Drivers = ()

Example: Social, Technological, Economical, Environmental, Political drivers!

Drivers Barriers

Drivers for, and Barriers to, Technology Implementation

a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policiesc. Social Values, Public Opinions, Politicsd. Infrastructuree. Privacy Concernsf. Resource Use and Environmental Healthg. Investment in R&D h. Education and Literacyi. Population and Demographicsj. Governance and Stability

Source: The Global Technology Revolution 2020 (Rand, 2006)

?

Find or build the extra driver to create a more favorable position for the country.

Develop physical and human institution and capacity.

Recognize the barriers.

And many more!

Source: Emerging Technology International Conference, MOST (2005)

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