7/31/2019 TEI August 2012
2/2
The Texas Leading Index, which uses
key economic indicators to forecast
future economic acvity, fell 0.1
percent from March to May.
Note: Data may not match previously published numbers due to
data revisions.
Sources: Employment: Bureau of Labor Stascs; Texas Workforce
Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas.
Housing: FHFA; Mulple Lisng Service; U.S. Census Bureau; Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. All housing data are seasonally adjusted.
Exports: U.S. Census Bureau; World Instute for Strategic
Economic Research; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Energy: Wall Street Journal; Henry Hub; Baker Hughes.
Texas Leading Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Data are
seasonally adjusted.
Texas Manufacturing Producon Index: Federal Reserve Bank of
Dallas. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Quesons can be addressed to Emily Kerr at
[email protected]. Texas Economic Indicators is released on
the rst Wednesday of every month and
can be found online at
www.dallasfed.org/research/indicators/index.cfm.
Acve rigs$/barrel Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Texas Rig
Count$/million Btu
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose 6.7 percent to
$87.93 per barrel in July. The price was down 9.5
percent year over year.
Natural gas prices increased to $2.96 per million Btu in July,
up 20.3 percent from June. The price was 33 percent
lower than in July 2011.
The Texas rig count fell to 728 in July from 932 in June and was
down 15.1 percent from a year earlier.
Texas Leading Index with Components
Three-month percent change
Index Producon Index - Texas Manufacturing
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2009 2010 2011 2012
Texas factory acvity connued to increase in
July, according the Texas Manufacturing
Outlook Survey. The producon index, a key
measure of state manufacturing condions,
fell from 15.5 to 12, suggesng slightly slower
output growth.
The Dallas Fed conducts the monthly Texas
Manufacturing Outlook Survey to obtain amely assessment of the
states factory
acvity.
200
400
600
800
1,000
2009 2010 2011 2012
0.0
0.5
0.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.2
0.2
-0.7
-0.1
-0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8
Average weekly hours
Help wanted index
Texas stock index
New unemployment claims
Well permits
Real oil price
U.S. leading index
Texas value of the dollar
Net change in Texas Leading Index
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2009 2010 2011 2012
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
2009 2010 2011 2012
