Thailand’s Power Development Plan Thailand’s Power ... of... · RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015 Integration of all Energy Development Plan Security Econom y Ecology 1)

Thailand’s Power Development Plan Thailand’s Power Development Plan 20152015(PDP (PDP 20152015))

Mr. Mr. ChavalitChavalit PichalaiPichalaiDirector General, Energy Policy and Planning OfficeDirector General, Energy Policy and Planning Office

ซื(อไฟฟ้าพลงันํ (าต่างประเทศ

7%

ถา่นหินสะอาด (รวมลกิไนต)์

20%

ดเีซล/นํ (ามนัเตา1%

IPP 45%

10%

7%

IPP

EGAT

นําเขา้และแลกเปล ีMยน

SPP(2,405 MW)

(3,637 MW)

Power Generation by Fuel Type in Power Generation by Fuel Type in 20142014

Current Power Generation StatusCurrent Power Generation Status

Imported and Exchange

Clean Coal(inc. Lignite)

Imported Hydro

Diesel/Fuel Oil

Power Generation by Fuel Type Power Generation by Producers

20%

พลงังานหมนุเวยีน

8%

กา๊ซธรรมชาติ64%

IPP

(12,742 MW)

45%

38%

IPP

(15,482 MW)

(13,166 MW)

รวมท ั(งส ิ(น 34,690 MW

1

Natural Gas

Renewable Energy

8%

Total 34,690 MW

PDP2015 Formulation ProcessPDP2015 Formulation Process

Co

mit

tee

Co

mit

tee**

Formulation

Open Public Hearing for PDPOpen Public Hearing for PDP2015 2015 Formulation ProcessFormulation Process

� Chiang Mai̵ 16 September 2014̵ Participants 625

� Bangkok̵ 29 August 2014̵ Participants 817

� Khon Kean̵ 10 September 2014̵ Participants 650

� Suratthani̵ 19 September 2014̵ Participants 556

Public Hearing for Drafted PDPPublic Hearing for Drafted PDP20152015

Principle and Process

Determination for PDP 2015

Su

bS

ub

--Co

mit

tee

Co

mit

tee

Formulation of PDP 2015

Revision Process forPDP 2015

Propose to NEPC**

Public Hearing for Drafted PDPPublic Hearing for Drafted PDP20152015

� Focused Group̵ 8 April 2015̵ Participants 161

� Public Hearing̵ 28 April 2015̵ Participants 557

*Sub-Committee on Load Forecast and Power Development Plan Formulation

**National Energy Policy Council

2

1. Regional and Domestic economic situation which affect domestic

energy consumption in Thailand such as Government’s transportation

infrastructure investment projects and the commencement of ASEAN

Economic Community, AEC, in late 2015.

RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015

� Consideration Factors

2. - National Energy Policy Council, NEPC, approved the Framework and

Assumption as a principle for the formulation process of PDP2015

on the 22nd October 2014.

- Formulation of PDP2015 in accordance with the National Economic

and Social Development Plan

- Integration with the formulation of Energy Efficiency Development

Plan, EEDP, and Alternative Energy Development Plan, AEDP.

3

3. Main Objectives

RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015

Integration of all Energy Development Plan

Security Economy Ecology

1) Security

• Ensure the Security of all

Power System Components

• Power

Generation, Transmission and

Distribution

• Fuel Diversification to reduce

4

Integrated Regulation Scheme

OilOilEEDPEEDPPDPPDP AEDPAEDP GasGas

Security Economy Ecology• Fuel Diversification to reduce

the risk of fuel dependency

2) Economy

• Appropriate determination

of Power Tariff to reflect the

primary cost

3) Ecology

Reduce / Minimize Ecological

Impact to Environment and

Community

1. Fuel Diversification� Reduce fuel dependence on Natural Gas� Increase the fuel mixed proportion for Clean Coal Technology� Higher proportion of Imported Power from Neighboring Countries� Improved Renewable Energy Sources Percentage in fuel mix� Nuclear Power Plant Projects at the end of PDP2015

2. Appropriate Reserve Margin at above 15 percent of peak power demand

PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015 PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015

2. Appropriate Reserve Margin at above 15 percent of peak power demand

3. Power System Infrastructure Investment Projects� Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure to support the development of

AEC and GMS power integration� Development of Smart Grid Technology to optimize the integration of

Renewable Energy Sources

4. Integration with EEDP and AEDP

5

Energy Efficiency Target for Power Sector

100,000 Government

89,672 GWhGWh

PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015PRINCIPLE for the formulation of PDP2015

Measure Residential

Industrial Business Govern

mentTotal

(GWh)

1. ENCON Act for Designated Factories and Buildings + Specific Energy Consumption

- 10,814 5,654 3,180 19,648

2. Building Energy Code (BEC) - - 11,975 1,711 13,686

3. High and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (HEPs & MEPs)

8,936 6,226 7,609 - 23,760

4 Financial Incentive - 9,133 5,941 - 15,074

5. Promoting Greater Use of LED 3,354 3,303 3,711 1,264 11,632

6

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

25

58

25

59

25

60

25

61

25

62

25

63

25

64

25

65

25

66

25

67

25

68

25

69

25

70

25

71

25

72

25

73

25

74

25

75

25

76

25

77

25

78

25

79

Industrial31,843 GWh (36%)

Residential13,633 GWh (15%)

Business37,052 GWh (41%)

Government7,144 GWh (8%)

3,354 3,303 3,711 1,264 11,632

6. Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) 1,343 2,367 2,162 - 5,872

Total (GWh) 13,633 31,843 37,052 7,144 89,672

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

Alternative Energy Target


Type Solar Wind HydroMini

Hydro(<12MW)

MSW Biogas Energy Crops Biomass TotalTotal

Installed Capacity 2014

1,298.5 224.5 2,906.4 142 65.7 311.5 - 2,541.8 77,,490490..44

InstalledCapacity

20366,000 3,002 2,906.4 376 500 600 680 5,570 1919,,636344..44

MegawattsMegawatts

70

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Energy

Crops

Solar

Wind

Hydro

MSWBiogas

Biomass

MegawattsMegawatts

Benefit of RE fuel cost to community economy


Biogas (Energy Crops)

8

Biogas (Energy Crops)

Biomass

MSW

Total

Mil

lio

n B

ah

t

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036


� Estimation of Fuel Mix for Power Generation in PDP2015

PDP PDP 20152015PDPPDP20102010

revrev33

FuelFuel TypeTypeSepSep 20142014

(percentage)(percentage)

20262026


20362036


20302030


ImportedImported HydroHydro 7 10-15 15 – 20 10

Clean CoalClean Coal 20 20-25 20 – 25 19

9

Clean CoalClean Coal ((inc.inc. LigniteLignite))

20 20-25 20 – 25 19

RenewableRenewable 8 10-20 15 – 20 8

NaturalNatural GasGas 64 45-50 30 – 40 58

NuclearNuclear - - 0 – 5 5

DieselDiesel / / Fuel OilFuel Oil 1 - - -

TOTALTOTAL 100 100 100 100

GWhGWh

393,335

326,119 300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

326,244

Comparison of net Energy Consumptionforecast including Energy Efficiency Measure

Load Forecast from 2015 - 2036

Summary of PDP2015Summary of PDP2015

1. BAU Scenario includes the summation of former and current Energy Efficiency Measure at 22,456 GWh

10

Hamburger Crisis

2. พลงังานไฟฟ้าทีMลดลงตามมาตรการในแผนอนุรกัษพ์ลงังาน จากกรณี BAU (GWh)

2558 2559 2564 2569 2574 2579

Base - -548 -7,969 -20,119 -38,446 -67,216

291,519

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

2015 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Base - -548 -7,969 -20,119 -38,446 -67,216

2. Energy Consumption Reduction from Energy Efficiency

Compared to BAU Scenario (GWh)

1 +2 = 89,672 GWh

เมกะวตัต์เมกะวตัต์

49,457

59,300

49,655 50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000 Comparison of net Power Consumptionforecast including Energy Efficiency Measure

9,645


MegawattsMegawatts

11

Hamburger Crisis

พลงัไฟฟ้าสงูสดุทีMลดลงตามแผนอนุรกัษพ์ลงังาน จากกรณี BAU (MW)

2558 2559 2564 2569 2574 2579

Base - -86 -1,218 -2,964 -5,554 -9,645

49,457

44,424

49,655

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Investment Saving for 10,000 MW in 2036 or 500 MW/yr throughout the plan


Unit Unit : : MegawattsMegawatts

Installed Capacity at the end of 2014New Installed CapacityRetiredInstalled Capacity at the end of 2036

Installed Capacity 2015-2036 PDPPDP20152015

New Installed Capacity 2015-2036 TotalTotal

37,61257,459

-24,736 70,335

12

New Installed Capacity 2015-2036

Clean Coal Technology

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Gas Turbine

Cogeneration

Renewable

Pumped Storage Hydropower

Imported

TOTAL

TotalTotal

7,390 (9 Plants)

17,478 (15 Plants)

2,000 (2 Plants)

1,250 (5 Plants)

4,119

12,105

2,101

11,016

57,459


200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

พลงังานหมุนเวยีน

พลงันํ (าใหญ่ไทย

พลงันํ (าต่างประเทศ

2%

15%

18%

ลา้นหนว่ย

2%

9%

16%

Renewable

Hydropower

Imported

Hydropower

MWh� Fuel Mix by Energy Generation

130

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

2558 2560 2562 2564 2566 2568 2570 2572 2574 2576 2578

ลิกไนต์

นวิเคลียร์

ถา่นหนินําเข้า

ก๊าซธรรมชาติ

5%

6%

17%

37%

10%

9%

64%

3%6%

7%

7%

15%

51%

9%

Natural Gas

Import Coal

Lignite

Nuclear

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

2031 2033 2035 2031 2033 2035 2031 2033 2035 2031 2033 2035

0.319

0.385

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

Comparison of Carbon Emission per unitkgCO2/kWh

20130.506

PDP2015

PDP2010 Rev3


� Carbon Emission

0.000

0.100

104,075

133,539

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

25

56

25

57

25

58

25

59

25

60

25

61

25

62

25

63

25

64

25

65

25

66

25

67

25

68

25

69

25

70

25

71

25

72

25

73

25

74

25

75

25

76

25

77

25

78

25

79

kTon

201389,678

Comparison of Accumulate Carbon Emission

PDP2010 Rev3

PDP2015

14

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

4.59 5.265.55

5.0

6.0

7.0Baht/kWh

VSPP Levelised = 0.59

(Discount Rate = 10%) LevelisedTransmission and Distribution Cost

= 0.52 Lev. price 2015-2036 = 4.587 Baht/kWh(Average Growth = 1.89%)


� Estimation of retailed power tariff

3.92

3.75

3.71

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

Levelised Capital Cost = 1.32

Levelised Fuel Cost= 2.16

15

35.2%33.9%

33.8%

36.6% 36.3%

35.1%

37.1%

37.4%

39.4%

36.1%

30.4%

34.9%

33.2%32.5%

34.7%33.8%

32.0%

34.7%

32.9%34.1%

30.4%30%

35%

40%

45% High portion of Reserve Margin (RM)

� GDP Growth Rate slows down from average 4.49 to 3.94 percent/year

� Improved Energy Efficiency Measure for PDP2015 at 100 percent compared to former version at 20 percent

EE50%

PDP 2015


� Reserve Margin

16.4%21.4%

19.6%18.7% 18.1%

17.8%16.9%

16.4%

16.3%16.5%

16.5%16.2%16.4% 16.4% 16.2%

24.7%

24.6%

20.5%

19.7%18.4%

17.3%

15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.3% 15.3%

24.8%

18.5%

16.3%15.3% 15.6% 15.4%

15.3% 15.2%15.2% 15.2% 15.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

PDP 2010 rev. 3

EE50%

16

1. Key measure to decrease reserve margin is so difficult because many

projects are binded from the previous PDP plan.

2.Emphasize on energy efficiency, renewable energy and fuel

diversification to increase security and decrease environmental

impacts, especially the global warming.

Key Success factors from PDP2015Key Success factors from PDP2015

impacts, especially the global warming.

3. Retailed power tariff is appropriated reflecting the primary cost.

4. The Committee on Energy Policy Administration is assigned by the

National Energy Policy Council, NEPC, to find out the measure to

solve high reserve margin.

17

Documents

Thailand’s Power Development Plan Thailand’s Power ... of... · RATIONALE of the Formulation of PDP 2015 Integration of all Energy Development Plan Security Econom y Ecology 1)