The NGN is for Future? Victor Chiu 邱武志 Vice President Chunghwa Telecom Labs 右腦思維看 NGN Next Generation Network Right Brainer Creates

The NGN is for Future?

Victor Chiu 邱武志Vice President

Chunghwa Telecom Labs

右腦思維看 NGNNext Generation Network

Right Brainer Creates

2/71 CHT Proprietary

The NGN is for Future?

1. TL - Telecom Labs

2. Link the telecom services with Maslow‘s law3. The human brain, the universe, the Internet4. The Internet is broken5. NGN is coming to the Rescue?6. Light speed NGN in CHT (Chunghwa

Telecom)7. Taiwan matters8. Paradigm shift: the Ad is the King9. Concluding remarks

中華電信研究所右腦思維看

TL - Telecom Labs

Slide Show


Taiwan: an ICT Island

worldwide No. 1

Wi-Fi

DSL CPEIP STB

PC/Notebook

Ethernet SW

VoIP RouterIP Phone

e-Governmente-Government


Source: ITU


Convergence service at CHTConvergence service at CHT

VOBB

PSTN

3.5G

ADSL

FTTx

ISP

MobileDatacomm

US$6BillionsUS$6Billions


Chunghwa Telecom TL - Telecom Labs

中華電信研究所

翠

1. 人文薈萃 1300 人2. 資源充沛 (NT$300 萬 / 人 )3. 10% 自主創意研發4. 內外兼修5. 國際化6. 鳥語花香7. 上日下月兩湖8. 鳥鳴蛙叫9. 松楓櫻野薑花10.濕地松落羽松11.原生種植物列管12.數 ( 樹 ) 位造林節能減碳 CSR


2. Link the telecom services with

Maslow‘s Hierarchy of Needs


Paradigm Shift: from technology to user

Time

Importance

Today

Technology-driven Paradigm

Customer-oriented Paradigm

User-centered Paradigm

Paradigm Shift !

Paradigm Shift ?

賣方市場買方市場共生市場


Focus Best Technology! R&D for Technology not for customer

CharacteristicsConducted by ExpertsTraditional marketing concept 4P or 4C

Issues:The returns may not always be proportional to the efforts

New products could not meet Users’ Needs

Traditional old good days (1/2)賣方市場


Traditional old good days - 4P (2/2)

Product The effect of differentiation is

decreasing The rise of No-Brand strategy

Price The price is not equal to the

value Price-cutting competitions

cause the bottleneck Red ocean

Promotion Advertisement lacks creativityAdvertisement lacks creativity Customers are easy to lose their Customers are easy to lose their

patiencepatience

Place The depression of specialized

channels Customers could purchase at

anytime on the internet easily.

賣方市場


Customer-oriented- 4C

(Deregulated Market)

3. CommunicationBe active to Communicate with customers

4. ConvenienceBe active to offer Conveniences for customers

1. Customer NeedsBe active to find out Customers’ needs

2. CostBe active to find out customers’ expected Costs

(Customer-oriented 4Cs, Complements of 4Ps)

Customer-oriented 4Cs by Robert Lauterborn

買方市場 (1/2)


Building Customer’s Loyalty: 4Rs

Relevancy among Needs and Professions(Product -> Customer’s Need -> Relevancy)

Reward (Retribution) to Customers(Price -> Cost -> Reward)

Relationship (CRM) (CVM)(Promotion -> Communication -> Relationship)

Re-action/Response immediately(Place -> Convenience -> Re-action)

Complemented by Don. E. Schuhz Target : to build Customers’ Loyalty

買方市場 (2/2)


User-Centered Logic

Focus :Abstracting Users’ Creativities & Innovations!!! Users would be the Sources of Creativities.

Characteristics: Interactions between the operators and users - Users’

Participation

Issues ：-How to transfer users’ passive attitude into Active Users’ Participation?

-How to Make Money from these creativities?

共生市場 (1/2)

UGC: User Generated Content


共生市場 (2/2) Customers Users = Human being

Customer = Who Pays

e.g. Entrepreneur, Advertiser…

User = Operator

Including: Entrepreneur, Employees, Client’s Customers, Client’s Suppliers, Client’s Shareholders, …etc.

共生市場 - 大家都是 CHT 的老爺

16/71 CHT Proprietary16

Maslow‘s Hierarchy of Needs (1954 Edition)


Maslow’s Hierarchy of Human Needs (8 level)

Abstracted from Abraham Maslow (1908-1970 ) ”Personality Theories” (1970 edition)

Safety needsprotection, security, order, law, limits, stability, etc

Aesthetic needsbeauty, balance, form, etc

Cognitive needsknowledge, meaning, self-awareness

Esteem needsachievement, status, responsibility, reputation

Belongingness and Love needsfamily, affection, relationships, work group, etc

Transcendencehelping others to self-actualize

Self-actualizationpersonal growth, self-fulfilment

Biological and Physiological needsbasic life needs - air, food, drink, shelter, warmth, sex, sleep, etc.

NG

N B

road

ban

d S

ervi

ces

Transcendence: go beyond; aesthetic: appreciation of the art


Web 2.0 vs. Human Needs

Safety needs

Aesthetic needs

Cognitive needs

Esteem needs

Belongingness and Love needs

Transcendence

Self-actualization

Biological and Physiological needs

NG

N B

road

ban

d S

ervi

ces

Community’s Interaction

Participation

Self-Expressionby Sharing

Goal

Achievement

Authority/Power

Esteem

Position/Status

Belongingness

Safety

EnthusiasmPerfectionism

!?

InteractionParticipation

Sharing

獨立性、受肯定、成就感、休閒時間、權力、聲望、財富、壓力、自

尊、家庭、安全感、成長


Examples of User- Centered

Google AdSense

Inter-dependency To Build good Inter-dependent relationship with users, furthermore, for coexistence with them.

Participation & sharingParticipation & Sharing by users

Users’ III… Incentives Innovation Invention

Value Emphasized on

Integrated Value (products, customers, users, brands…)

Generating Profits from offering Integrated Value

User-oriented“Users’ III… are VIPs”


The human brain, the universe, the Internet


The universe? The universe?

Internet Map from WiKiInternet Map from WiKiThe brain network?

The Internet!


Magical Human Brain Magical Human Brain (1/2)(1/2)

Functions of left and right brain In his famous book Blink, Malcolm Gladwell, a staff writer for

The New Yorker since 1996, explained how the human subconscious interprets events or cues and how past experiences allow people to make informed decisions in the blink of an eye.

R( 右 ) L( 左 ) rhythm 節奏

spatial awareness 空間認知

Gestalt (whole picture)全形

imagination 想像

daydreaming 白日夢

colour 顏色

dimension 大小

words 文字

logic 邏輯

numbers 數字

sequence 順序

linearity 線性

analysis 分析

lists 清單

資料來源：工業技術研究院創意中心資料來源：工業技術研究院創意中心

Right brainer creates


Magical Human Brain Magical Human Brain (2/2)(2/2)

When involved in higher mental activity, including perception, problem solving, fear, and consciousness, the EEG of human brain is often recorded as Gamma rhythms, with frequency ranging approximately 26–100 Hz.

James Watson, who won the Nobel Prize for helping discover DNA, described the human

brain as “the most complex thing we have

yet discovered in our universe”.

“the most complex thing we have yet discovered in our universe”

rithem

Electroencephalography (EEG) is the measurement of electrical activity produced by the brain as recorded from electrodes placed on the scalp.


Network of Human BrainNetwork of Human Brain A typical human brain contains some 100 billion nerve

cells, each of which connects and communicates with up to 10,000 of its colleagues, and forming a million new connections for every second of our lives.

The pattern and strength of the connections is constantly changing and extremely difficult to be simulated by computers.

Human brain has great potential…

Light speed network is for the network of

human Brain!


The Internet is broken


廢舊換新網路面臨革命聯合報 4/15/2007

The Internet is Broken?


Hypotheses design of InternetTraffic flows are to be able to trust, every end point

is well-behaved.Network fairness rely on the well-behaved end poin

ts, the Internet is supposed no management to them. The communication protocols are supposed to work with rul

es, once the congestion is detected, they lower generating packets to the internet automatically

End points pay costs： buffer、 jitter Diffserv、MPLS-TE、 NSIS、 RSVP are invented to patch th

e Internet， however， the original Internet design has become a barrier


The original design of Internet Is not designed for commercial, including telecom

Best-effort The network seems to be a black box, and does not provi

de information of network allocation to end points Network administrators nowadays hope to see more i

nformation from network IPv4 mobility issues

Mobile IP is introduced ， with the problems of IP address cost 、 triangle transition

IPv6 with embedded mobility Multicast is a patched function

it is still under question whether the benefits implied by the introduction of IP Multicast would compensate and overreach the complexity of its deployment and management in the network level .


Basic Principle of Internet

Connectionless 、 End-to-end 、 Best effort Original design ： connectionless 、 transmit ion of

packet of variable lengthRSVP 、 MPLS-TE 、 DiffSer

without constrains of traffic , it permits end points transmit packets to any other end points directly, and gives up the responsibility of security security issues such as junk mail、 DDOS

IPSec is introduced， increasing the overhead of end points

Two end points may communicate without intermediate servers

cache、 firewalls are introduced， without considering the issues of IMS、 SIP…


How could Internet keep progressing?

Patch is the only solution as a doctor’s operation The solution has always been patching the Internet issue individually, however,

this way increases the complexity of Internet, makes the Internet more difficult to manage, and makes new application more difficult to be adopted.

例如針對出現的問題個別解決，在目前體系上增加容量，這是一直以來的方式，但增加了 Internet 的複雜性，變得更難以管理、新應用更難以適應

Internet has been Ossified, it’s difficult to patch ！Revolution ？

By the end of 2003, US NSF funded ”100x100 clean slate project” with $750M GENI、 PlanetLab Ethean Orbit ….


NGN is coming to the Rescue?

The patched-Internet based technology QoS IMS FMC Triple play/ Quadruple play SDP, SOA Ecosystem

Let’s wait and see


Next Generation Internet is evolving

GENI - Global Environment for Networking Innovations (NSF)

Clean-Slate design for the Internet (Stanford University)

100x100 clean slate project ORBIT Ethane: A Security Management Architecture FIND - Future Internet Network Design Autonomic Communication Forum


100x100 Clean Slate Project

… if we were not bound by existing design decisions and would be able to design the network from first principles (a clean slate design), how should we do it?

supports 100 Mbps of connectivity between all

100 Million American homes


PlanetLab

Key ideas Slice

Substrate resources bound to a particular experiment

Virtualizationmultiple architectures

on a shared infrastructure

Programmablevirtually no limit on

new designs


Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Radu Popescu-Zeletin ： Next generation Networks R&D Programme and Directions


Autonomic communication

AutoComm Applicability and Expectations In human-to-human

Network elements transparently to humans...

In business-to-businessMore seamlessly integrated into business tasks and environment

s

In human-to-machinePerform services autonomously, or adjust the behavior of servic

es the user might request implicitly or explicitly

In machine-to-machineHelp components to self-organize into composite entities, optima

lly providing required complex functions

Fraunhofer Fokus ： Autonomic Communication Research Agenda for a New Communication Paradigm


Principles: Autonomic communication Autonomic communication principles

Gigabit over wireless will be the backbone Ad hoc wireless network will take over fixed networks Ubiquitous composability of P2P services On-demand protocol stack IPvX will not remain the only networking morpheme Self scalable (evolvable) systems

Group communication for control plane tasks: programmable and controlled

Policy will self-organize via policy computation and distributed conflict resolution and policy context

Programmable rule-based systems Design for conflicts Role-based architecture Context awareness Self-similarity of selfware Security:auditing and danger models Autonomic routing composition

Fraunhofer Fokus ： Autonomic Communication Research Agenda for a New Communication Paradigm

Morpheme: like(1), unlikely(3) 语素


Moving to NGI from current Internet

current Internet

Multicast complexity

Mobie IP solutions: triangle routing, IP address issues

RSVP

DiffServMPLS-TE

IPSec for security issues

NAT issues

DDOS issues

Firewall solutions

Next Generation Internet

NGN

IMS

FMC

SDP

SOA

Quadruple play

Disruptive/Clean slate innovation

The patched Internet


Light speed NGN in

Chunghwa Telecom


Means:

Light-Speed NGN in Chunghwa Telecomm

“not only speed & quality, but also instantaneously sharing & joining together. Because of high speed, anyone onto the NET ac

ts into the same moment.”

賀陳董事長：「光世代」不只意味著網路使用上的高速度，與優質的傳輸品質，還帶有分享與參與零落差的意義，「因為快速，讓每個人都可藉由網路融入在同一個剎那。

–HeChen Dan, Chairman Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.

FTTH, a kind of big thing, a big TRANSFORMATION!


CHT Broadband Network Evolution

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

FTTB+xDSL

Ethernet-basedFTTB & FTTH

NGN

FTTH WiMAX / B3G

NGN-FMC

10M High Quality Internet Surfing

Differentiated Service

Triple Play Services

100M


3 Broadband Plans in Taiwan

2002 2004

U-Taiwan

2003

M-Taiwan

e-Taiwan project initiated in 2002 M-Taiwan plan in 2003 U-Taiwan plan in 2004

6 million broadband users by 2010. Platform for Broadband applications and services. FTTH and WiFi, WiMAX

e-Taiwan


Regulator decides who win(s)( 螳螂捕蟬黄雀在後獵人全看在眼裡 )

TelcoTelcoIT/ISPIT/ISP CableCable


Taiwan matters


Source: III


Source: III

#1 Provider of notebook PCs,

with 72% of the market worth

$22 billion

May 06, 2005


Number of U.S. patents and rank

Note: Number of U.S. patents (excluding new design)Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, 2005

’00-04’

USAUSA JapanJapan GermanyGermany TaiwanTaiwan KoreaKorea UKUK FranceFrance CanadaCanada ItalyItaly(cases)

(year)’00-04’ ’00-04’ ’00-04’ ’00-04’ ’00-04’ ’00-04’ ’00-04’ ’00-04’

85,07284,271

31,296

35,350

10,234 10,779

4,6675,938

3,3144,428

3,6673,450

3,8193,380

3,4193,374

1,7141,584

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Source: III


Paradigm Shift in the US 典範移轉

1900~1930 1930~1960 1960~1990 1990~2000

2000~

美國鋼鐵Steel

通用汽車 IBM

Microsoft

Intel What’s Next

GAMeY?

Source: III


World wide Software and Hardware in 2001

主要製造產業主要創意及內容產業

類別全球市場規模類別全球市場規模

造船 Ship 460 動畫 Animation 750

半導體 Semicon 1,390 遊戲 Game 1,704

記憶體 Memory 249 電影 Movies 677

影像顯示 Display 144 音樂 Music 337

影音設備 A/V 381 漫畫 Carton 1,220

鋼鐵 Steel 4,915廣播及電視Radio &TV

1,780

總計

( 不含鋼鐵 )2,624 總計 6,468

總計 7,539 Unit: hundred million USD

< 2001 manufacturing industry vs. creative / content industry>

Source: KOCCA, Korea, 2003/10

Source: III


10. Why Right-Brainer Will Rule the Future?

‘Shakespeare invented humanity’

右腦的世界


52

Why Right-Brainer Will Rule the Future?

22Story:Not just argument

11Design: 理念的设计Not just function

33Symphony:Not just focus

44Empathy: 同理心 Not just logic

55Play:Not just seriousnessMeaning:Not just accumulation

66

CEO CEO CFO CFO CIO/CTO CIO/CTO

Chief Creative Officer

CCO

Source: A whole new mind, Daniel H. Pink 2005

6 abilities of high concept

Source: III

CCO is coming


Everyone knows ……運用數位魔法，讓經典文化「點石成金」–以英國為例

自 1996 年首度發行，「古墓奇兵」系列遊戲，全球已銷售超過3 千萬套，更以「正統英國風」訴求，讓虛擬主角「蘿拉」魅力無法擋，從遊戲、代言、翻拍為電影，一路紅到好萊塢！

數位科技，讓英國傳統的文化創意界產生質變；而倫敦不再是大家既有印象中的樣子，只有多霧的天氣，還有古老的石子路而已！

經濟體質和城市外觀的改變相輔相成，古老的英國國會大廈與大笨鐘，和當初為了迎接千禧年而建造的摩天輪「倫敦眼」，隔河相望！

文化創意是筆好生意

古典與現代，人文與科技驚艷倫敦「新 SOHO 」 1990 年代開始，尋求較低廉房租的藝術家們陸續進駐，讓這裡搖身一變，成為新興的文化創意園區，儼然是倫敦的新「蘇活」區

自 1997年第一集問世，「哈利波特」系列書與電影已締造超過 30億美元商機，電玩遊戲軟體，銷售數百萬套；讓作者羅琳的財富高達 6億英鎊，超越英國女王，創造出一個產值驚人的「哈利波特」品牌企業！

Source: III

右腦的世界


Beyond canvas, colors and paint brush

Davinci

Michelangelo

Raffaello

paint brush

canvas

colors

Florence (Renaissance) Ref: III

Innova-tion, val

ueInfrastruc-ture, networ

k

右腦的世界


Why Taiwan matters but not that significant…

古典力學 / 蒸汽機、電磁學 / 電動機、原子、 DNA 、電晶體…

Breakthrough discoveries

火車、收音機 / 電視、電腦…

killer product/applications

industrial paradigms

資本主義、社會主義、新中間路線、依賴理論…

Significant social thoughts impressive cultural projections

福特主義、物質經濟、知識經濟、意義經濟…

Source: III

右腦的世界


Software and Hardware in the US

Production Value (Billion USD)

439.04587.71

1,022.23

1,688.57

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1997 2000 2005 2010

Software & Information Service

Hardware

57%

43%

61%

39%

63%

37%

65%

35%

Source: III

右腦的世界


Software (6%) and Hardware (94%) in Taiwan

Source: Input, MIC/III, 2002/3

48,435

4,204

57,171

4,360

69,664

4,800

81,108

5,060

89,234

5,400

97,839

5,780

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Software

Hardware

Production Value (Million USD) Taiwan’s ICT industry

Source: III

左腦的世界


Flat Panel Display Telecom

ICT/HW Biomedical

Semiconductor Cultural &Creative

S/W & IS

Digital Content

Bio-IT

11. C $ R 可以賺錢

The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid

By C.K. Prahalad

The world's most exciting, fastest-growing new market? It's where you least expect it: at the bottom of the pyramid. Collectively, the world's billions of poor people have immense entrepreneurial capabilities and buying power… It is being done-profitably. Whether you're a business leader or an anti-poverty activist, business guru Prahalad shows why you can't afford to ignore "Bottom of the Pyramid" (BOP) markets.

Ref: III

右腦的世界


Economist’s reflection on Digital Divide

Behind the digital divideMar 10th 2005Mobile phones can boost development in poor countries—if governments let them

The real digital divideMar 10th 2005Encouraging the spread of mobile phones it the most sensible and effective response to the digital divide

Mobile phones and developmentJul 7th 2005Mobile phones can boost development in poor countries—if governments let them

Source: EIU, 2005Source: III

右腦的世界


Device Device NetworkNetwork

NGN IP NetworkNGN IP Network


10/20/40/100M…10/20/40/100M… ？？AudioAudioAudioAudio MobilityMobilityMobilityMobilityVideoVideoVideoVideo

Web surfing E-mailE-mail

DataDataDataData

Home Broadband Video Phone

NGN IP Network

Distance Healthcare

Home Decoration

Video Conference

Multimedia Entertainment

CE-based DVRParallel recording

Mobile phone

Requirement for Future IP Network (IP always ?)

左腦思惟


fromfrom Device Network Device Network toto Human Network Human Network

NGN IP NetworkNGN IP Network

HearingHearing

SightSight

TouchTouch

Smell ？Smell ？Taste ？Taste ？

…？…？

右腦的世界手感聽覺触覺外也要色香味 Body/sensor network


Advertisement is the King

Telco’s embarrassment1.Decreasing ARPU2.Large NGN CAPEX

GAMeY* AD revenue boost1. Google + Yahoo! =~58% of US Onl

ine Ad Revenue (2006Q3)

GAMEY: Google, AoL, MSN, eBay, Yahoo!

Key product of Google1. AdWords 2. Toolbar Plug-in for Web Browser

What is the next step? Video search ?

Unprofitable business model

Intenet giant saw 46% increase in Q3/2007 profit on strong advertising operations. Google


64

Global Online Advertising Revenue(dollars in billions and % of total ad spend)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005p 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Inte

rnet H

ouse

hold

Penetration (%

)

Taiwan

High penetration: 70.1 % (2010)

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, “Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2006-2010”, June 2006.

Global Mobile Advertising Spending (dollars in millions)

Source: eMarketer “Mobile Marketing and Advertising” (2007).

Higher penetration rate of Internet and mobile service is advantageous for CHT to make money from online ad..

Good News !!!

Paradigm shift: from AdvertisementFlat rate $ <<< Ad $ , Don’t expect your subscriber to pay

more


Closing Remarks


Technology always comes with

human desire

創新總來自於民生（食衣住行育樂）

Technology is for life


右腦思惟 ........

紙，顏料，彩筆，印刷機 (工廠 )

名畫，名著，暢銷書，文物 (頭腦 )

您貴庚？ 38? 生理年齡知識心智年齡武功 : 補習班，武術館身心靈 : 少林寺，電信研究所me too, follower ，我也要創意公司，發明家自力獨力艦隊，群力，共生1 +1 =? 2 = ?

月租 /使用費 (PSTN距離時間 ) 95%

廣告，交易服務費 (光世代 ) 5%

電機資訊 " 專業” 文化芸术美學经营管理国际观多元化素養的 ICT 電信资讯專業人士

PSTN: 網路平台 NGN: 服務平台 + 應用服務 (廣告 )

CHT, NGN CHT 2.0, 2gNGN, ngNGN, NGN 2.0

方正「苦幹」「實幹」巧智動腦筋「巧幹」Telco GAMeY (Google, AOL, MS, eBay, Y

ahoo)


吳祥輝 : 芬蘭驚艷盼帶給台灣啟發

芬蘭國小課本的數學課本：囯际观，科学观，文化观，右脑观


日本第一日本第一曾經喊得舉世震動 , 日本在 2000 年經濟隨全球泡沫化 , 2005才掙脫景氣低迷

日本被認為不善原創，但精於模仿，而且更有精進日本第一之後，就需回歸日本原創，已無前者可玆模仿，手足無措當可理解 (但 Wii, Pokemon, ..)

日本一直是台灣的模仿對象，但台灣並沒有超越日本，贏得世界第一，但得 Taiwan Matters

台灣的識別與價質典範在那裡？識別與價質典範均需來自原創，原創來自於以文化為根的右腦思惟

Ref: 吳祥輝 : 芬蘭驚艷


国际舞台上的中华电信


Documents

The NGN is for Future? Victor Chiu 邱武志 Vice President Chunghwa Telecom Labs 右腦思維看 NGN Next Generation Network Right Brainer Creates