Bng tm tt tnh hnh sn xut la go trn th gii v vit nam nm 2010
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Trn th gii, la chim mt v tr quan trng, c bit vng Chu . Chu , la
l mn n chnh ging nh bp ca dn Nam M, ht k ca dn Chu Phi hoc la m ca
dn Chu u v Bc M (Hong Long, 2010).
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Thng k ca t chc lng thc th gii (FAO, 2008) cho thy, c 114 nc
trng la, trong 18 nc c din tch trng la trn trn 1.000.000 ha tp
trung Chu ,....., 31 nc c din tch trng la trong khong 100.000ha -
1.000.000 ha. Trong c 27 nc c nng sut trn 5 tn/ha, ng u l Ai Cp
(9.7 tn/ha), c (9.5 tn/ha) El Salvador (7.9 tn/ha). (Hong Long,
2010) S liu 5 + s liu 4 ) .
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Thng k ca t chc lng thc th gii (FAO, 2008) cn cho thy, din tch
trng la trn th gii gia tng r rt t nm 1961 n 1980. Trong vng 19 nm ,
din tch trng la trn th gii tng bnh qun 1,53 triu ha/nm. T nm 1980,
din tch la tng chm v t cao nht vo nm 1999 (156,8 triu ha) vi tc tng
chm vi tc tng trng bnh qun 630.000 ha/nm. T nm 2000 tr i din tch
trng la th gii c nhiu bin ng v c xu hng gim dn, n nm 2005 cn mc
155,1 triu ha. T nm 2005 n 2008 din tch la gia tng lin tc t 159,0
triu ha cao nht k t nm 1995 ti nay. (Hong Long, 2010) s liu 0 .
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Bn cnh din tch trng la, nng sut la bnh qun trn th gii cng tng
khong 1,4 tn/ha trong vng 24 nm t nm 1961 n 1985, c bit sau cuc cch
mng xanh ca th gii vo nhng nm 1965-1970, vi s ra i ca cc ging la
thp cy, ngn ngy, khng quang cm, m tiu biu l ging la IR5, IR8. n
nhng nm 1990 dn u nng sut la trn th
gii l cc nc Triu Tin, c, M, Nht Bn, Ty Ban Nha (IRRI, 1990). T
nm 1990 tr i n ti thi im hin nay nng sut la th gii lin tc c ci thin
t 4,3 tn/ha nm 2008 do ????? , tuy nhin ch bng phn na nng sut ca Ai
Cp (9,7 tn/ha) nc ng u th gii (Hong Long, 2010) s liu 5, powerpoint
slide 3).-
Tnh hnh nhn chung nng sut cc nc trong 8 nm (2000 2008) cho thy
nng sut la cao tp trung cc quc gia nhit ngy v m cao hn v trinh canh
tc pht trin tt hn. Cc nc nhit i c nng sut bnh qun thp do ch nhit v
m cao, su bnh pht trin mnh v trnh canh tc hn ch (Nguyn Ngc , 2008).
c (9,5 tn/ha), El Salvador (7,9 tn/ha), Uruguay (7,9 tn/ha) c mc
tng nng sut la ln hn 1 tn/ha trong nhng nm gn y vn ln ng v tr th 2,
th 3 v th 4 trn th gii cng mt s nc khc l Morocco, Iran, Triu Tin,
Th Nh K, Ukraine , Tajikistan, Macedonia. Hong Long, 2010 s liu
5).
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Tnh hnh nhn chung ca cc nc c din tch trng la nhiu nht th gii nm
2008. ng u vn l 8 nc chu l n , Trung Quc, Indonesia, Bangladesh,
Thi Lan, Myanmar, Vit Nam, Philippines. Tuy nhin nng sut ch c 2 nc
c nng sut cao hn 5 tn/ha l Trung Quc v Vit Nam. Mc d nng sut la cc
nc Chu cn thp nhng do din tch sn xut ln nn Chu vn l ngun ng gp rt
quan trng cho sn lng la trn th gii (trn 90%). Nh vy, c th ni Chu l
va la quan trng nht th gii. (Hong Long, 2010 s liu 5).
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i vi tnh hnh xut khu go nm 2008, Thi Lan vn l nc xut khu go dn u
th gii 9 triu tn hn Vit Nam ng th 2 (3.8 triu tn) v c s lng v gi
tr, chim 31% sn lng xut khu go th gii, 38,8 % sn lng xut khu go ca
chu mc d nng sut la ch khong 3 tn/ha, u th ny do c th trng truyn
thng rng hn, v cht lng
go cao hn. Pakistan, M, n cng l nhng nc xut khu go quan trng.
Theo IRRI, la go sn xut ra ch yu l tiu dng ni a, ch c khong 6-7%
tng sn lng la go trn th gii c lu thng trn th trng quc t ( IRRI,
2005). (Hong Long, 2010 s liu 5, s liu 3, powerpoint slide 2 ). D
on tnh hnh la go th gii t cc chuyn gia cho 10 nm ti la go vn lun
phi c quan tm. Theo Wailes v Chavez (2006) nhn xt trong vng 10 nm
ti, nng sut la th gii tip tc tng bnh qun trn 0,7% hng nm, trong 70%
tng trng v sn lng la th gii s t n ( 37%) Indonesia, Vit Nam, Thi
Lan, Myanmar v Nigeria. Tuy nhin do tc tng dn s nhanh hn nn hng nm
mc tiu th go bnh qun u ngi s gim khong 0,4 % mi nm. n v Trung Quc
vn s l cc nc tiu th go nhiu nht v c khong 50% lng go tiu th ton th
gii. Gi go th gii s tng bnh qun 0,3% mi nm v lng go lu thng cng gia
tng trung bnh 1,8% mi nm. Khong nm 2016, lng go trao i ton cu s t
33,4 triu tn (17% cao hn mc k lc nm 2002). D vy, lng go lu thng trn
th trng th gii cng ch chim khong 7,5% lng go tiu th hng nm. Nhu cu
nhp khu go trong 10 nm ti ca cc nc Chu Phi v Trung ng d on s chiu
gn 42% lng go nhp khu trn th gii. Nigeria d on s nhp khu 2,4 triu
tn vo nm 2016. Sn xut la Trung ng b tr ngi do thiu nc, nn cc nc
Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia v Ivory Coast vn tip tc gia tng nhp khu do
tng dn s v tng mc tiu th go bnh qun u ngi. Cng trong khong thi gian
ny, gn 30 % sn lng go nhp khu ca th gii s thuc v cc nc EU, Mexico
Hn Quc v Philippines (Nguyn Ngc , 2008).-
Dn s th gii theo lin hip quc c lng trn c s d liu quc t (IDB) s l
7 t nm 2011, chu chim khong 60% dn s th gii
khong 3,8 t, chu Phi 1 t chim 14%, chu u 731 triu chim 11%, Bc M
514 triu chim 8%, Nam M 371 triu chim 5,3%. Chu c 21 triu chim 0,3
%. Theo thng k ca FAO nm 2009 c 1.02 t ngi thiu i (chim 14%) tp
trung hai khu vc chnh l Chu v Chu Phi. (Hong Long, 2010 powerpoint
slide 1) .-
Theo s liu ca B Nng Nghip M (USDA, 2007), tng nhu cu tiu th go
trung bnh hng nm ca c th gii c t 410 triu tn ( 2004-2005), tng ln n
khong 424,5 triu tn (2007), trong khi tng lng go sn xut ca c th gii
lun thp hn nhu cu ny. Cng theo c quan ny, hng nm th gii thiu khong
2-4 triu tn go, c bit nm 2003-2004 s thiu ht ny ln ti 21 triu tn
(Nguyn Ngc , 2008).
III. TNH HNH SN XUT LA GO TRONG NC TA-
Vit Nam, trng la l mt ngh truyn thng t xa (khong ? nm), thn thit
lu i nht ca nhn dn, c bit l ng Bng Sng Cu Long ((Hong Long, 2010
Powerpoint slide 4).
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Theo thng k ca FAO nm 2008, Vit Nam c din tch la khong 7,4 triu
ha ng th 7 sau cc nc c din tch la trng nhiu Chu theo th t n (~44.0
triu ha), Trung Quc (~29.5 triu ha), Indonesia (~12.3 triu ha),
Bangladesh (~11.7 triu ha), Thi Lan (~10.2 triu ha), Myanmar (~8.2
triu ha). Vit Nam c nng sut 5,2 tn/ha ng th 24 trn th gii sau Ai Cp
(9,7 tn/ha) c (9,5 tn/ha) El Salvador (7,9 tn/ha), ng u khu vc ng
Nam v ng th 4 trong khu vc chu sau Hn Quc (7,4 tn/ha), Trung Quc
(6,6 tn/ha), Nht (6,5 tn/ha). C mc tng nng sut trong 8 nm qua l
0,98 tn/ha ng th 12 trn th gii v ng u ca 8 nc c din tch la nhiu Chu
v kh nng ci thin nng sut la trn th gii (Hong Long, 2010, s liu 4, s
liu 5). Vit Nam vt tri trong khu vc ng Nam nh thu li c ci thin ng k
v p dng nhanh cc tin b k thut v ging, phn bn, v bo v thc vt.
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Theo thng k ca FAO nm 2008, Vit Nam c tng sn lng la hng nm ng th
5 trn th gii, nhng li l nc xut khu go ng th 2 (5,2 triu tn) sau Thi
Lan (9,0 triu tn), chim 18% sn lng xut khu go th gii, 22,4% sn lng
xut khu go ca chu , mang li li nhun 1275,9 t USD nm 2006 , nm 2010?
((Hong Long, 2010 s liu 3)
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Theo s liu thng k ca FAO (2010) so snh din tch canh tc v sn lng
gia la v cc cy lng thc khc Vit Nam nm 2008 th la
go vn l sn phm cn c u tin hng u v din tch nhiu nht c nc hn bp v
sn, sn lng ng u hn khoai lang v cy sn. ng ch l nng sut la c ci thin
ng k (?????).-
Qua cc giai on lch s ci thin i sng ca nhn dn cho thy quan tm ca
nh nc i vi sn xut la go. Trc nm 1975, nng sut go t i 2,2 tn/ha, din
tch trng la di 5,0 triu ha. Nng sut bnh qun trong cui thp nhin 1970
gim st kh nghim trng do t ai mi khai hoang cha c ci to, thin tai v
su bnh, vi c ch qun l nng nghip tr tr khng ph hp c bit l nhng nm
1978 1979. Bc sang thp nin 1980, nng sut la tng dn do cc cng trnh
thu li trong c nc, c bit BSCL. C ch qun l nng nghip thong hn vi ch
trng khon sn phm trong sn xut nng nghip. Nm 1982, nc ta chuyn t nc
phi nhp khu go hng nm sang nc t tc go. T nm 1975 n nm 1990, trong
vng 15 nm din tch la tng gn 1 triu ha t 6,0 triu ha vi nng sut tng
gn 1 tn/ha t 3,2 tn/ha. K t lc go Vit Nam ti nhp th trng th gii nm
1989 th nm 1990 ng v tr xut khu go th 4 sau Thi Lan, Pakistan v M,
n nm 1991 ln v tr th 3 v tip tc ln hng vo nm 1995 v tr xut khu go
th 2 th gii . T nm 1990 n 2005, cng trong vng 15 nm nhng din tch la
tng gn 1,3 triu ha t 7,3 triu ha vi nng sut tng gn 1,7 tn/ha t 4,9
tn/ha v mc gia tng nng sut vn tip tc ci thin. (Hong Long, 2010 s
liu 1)
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Kt qu phn tch cho thy, th trng xut khu go chnh ca VN trong 15 nm
qua, th nht l cc quc gia ng Nam (chim khong 40-50% lng go xut khu,
th hai l cc quc gia Chu Phi (chim khong 2030%, mt th trng kh n nh.
Cc th trng khc l Trung ng v Bc M, nhng lng go xut khu sang cc nc ny
khng n nh, c bit l trong giai on 2001-2004. Trong nhng nm qua, go
xut khu
ca VN tng trng v s lng v cht lng cng nh m rng th trng. n nm
2003, ngoi cc th trng truyn thng ca VN nh l Philipines), VN m rng v
pht trin thm mt s th trng tim nng nh Chu Phi, M Latinh v EU Yu t
quan trng nh hng cc doanh nghip xut khu go ca Vit Nam l t kinh
nghim nn thiu kh nng duy tr v khai thc cc th trng nhiu bin ng. Nu c
mi lin kt tt hn v t chc th trng tt, h s nng cp hng ngch v gi tr xut
khu go ca VN. (Nguyn Ngc , 2008). V gi c, go VN dn dn c nng ln tng
ng vi go Thi Lan, vo cng thi im v cp loi go. iu ny cho thy, cht lng
go v quan h th trng ca go VN c th cnh trinh ngang hng vi go Thi Lan
trn th trng th gii ( bng 1.12)
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i vi va la ln nht c nc ng bng sng Cu Long, t nm 1975 n nm 2008 c
nhng bc tin r rt. T vng la ni mnh mng An Giang, ng Thp, vng trng
phn ng Thp Mi, T gic Long Xuyn, vi ch mt v la ma, nng sut thp v bp
bnh nay chuyn dn thnh vng la 2-3 v ngn ngy nng sut cao, n nh, cng
vi nhng h thng canh tc a dng, gp phn rt ng k vo sn lng lng thc v
lng nng sn hng ho xut khu hng nm ca c nc. Nng sut bnh qun c nm ca
ton ng bng gia tng t 2,28 t/ha( 1980 n 3,64 tn/ha (1989) 5,0 tn/ha
(2005) 5,3 tn/ha (2008) (bng 1.14) . Hin nay, BSCL c tng din tch
gieo trng la gn 3,9 triu ha chim 53,4% din tch gieo trng la c nc,
cung cp 20,7 triu tn la trong tng sn lng 38,7 triu tn la ca c nc
chim t l 53,5 %.
(Hong Long, 2010 s liu 1 bng 3) m trong hn 80% sn lng go xut khu
hng nm t y.
