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November 2016
Trump y la relación comercial México –Estados Unidos
1
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11
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15
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
11019
94
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Manufacturing employment USA Participación de México en importaciones EE.UU.
NAFTA China OMC
Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census Bureau y INEGI
Great Recession
Empleo manufacturero EE.UU
4Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics e INEGI
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Empleo manufacturero EE.UU Empleo manufacturero México
México
5Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau
R² = 0.0018
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
∆ Em
pleo
man
ufac
ture
ro E
E.U
U
∆ Participación México importaciones EE.UU
China
6Fuente: Elaboración propia con Bureau of Labor Statistics y US Census Bureau
R² = 0.3583
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
∆ Em
pleo
man
ufac
ture
ro E
E.U
U
∆ Participación China importaciones EE.UU
Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de Estados-Unidos
7Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau
13.5
20.8
0
5
10
15
20
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Mexico China Canada Japan Germany
Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de Estados-Unidos
8Fuente: Fuente: Elaboración propia con US Census Bureau
16.0
7.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
México China Canada Japón European Union
Mexico exportadorPart B Mexico Exports to major trading partners and duties faced
Major markets
Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports
in million 95% trade in no. of traded TL margin TL Value
US$ HS 2-digit
HS 6-digit Simple Weighted Weighted in % in %
Agricultural products1. United States of America 2013 18,493 21 102 7.2 6.4 6.2 99.7 99.9
2. Canada 2013 1,480 12 56 6.8 0.9 0.9 96.8 99.93. European Union 2013 1,206 20 60 13.4 6.5 4.4 75.8 81.34. Japan 2013 876 17 58 13.2 12.2 7.4 65.1 44.05. Venezuela 2013 332 12 21 16.6 16.4 1.0 0.0 0.0Non agricultural products1. United States of America 2013 251,714 51 582 3.5 1.9 1.9 100.0 100.0
2. Canada 2013 24,193 43 351 3.3 2.8 2.8 100.0 100.03. European Union 2013 20,846 51 401 4.4 2.0 2.0 99.8 100.04. China 2013 10,094 31 188 9.0 5.3 0.0 11.3 64.05. Brazil 2013 5,695 44 299 13.1 20.2 17.5 29.0 74.5
9Fuente: OMC
Estados Unidos importador
10
UNITED STATES MFN applied duties Imports
Product groupsAVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free
in % in % in %Animal products 2.2 30.8 26 0.4 24.9Dairy products 17.2 0.3 188 0.1 14.2Fruit, vegetables, plants 4.7 21.1 132 1.3 28.8Coffee, tea 3.3 53.5 44 0.5 74.4Cereals & preparations 3.0 20.1 44 0.7 31.5Oilseeds, fats & oils 7.3 25.9 164 0.4 36.5Sugars and confectionery 11.7 2.7 55 0.2 6.3Beverages & tobacco 18.6 26.2 350 1.1 48.2Cotton 4.8 38.3 18 0.0 79.0Other agricultural products 1.0 61.0 52 0.3 67.5Fish & fish products 0.8 84.6 35 0.8 90.4Minerals & metals 1.8 60.9 38 12.5 73.4Petroleum 1.3 0 11 13.4 0Chemicals 2.8 40.8 7 9.8 65.0Wood, paper, etc. 0.5 90.1 14 3.5 92.3Textiles 7.9 15.0 41 1.9 12.6Clothing 12.0 2.8 32 3.8 1.8Leather, footwear, etc. 3.8 39.1 54 2.7 17.6Non-electrical machinery 1.2 65.2 10 14.0 79.4Electrical machinery 1.7 49.0 15 13.2 68.3Transport equipment 3.1 55.3 25 13.0 15.0Manufactures, n.e.s. 2.5 44.2 36 6.6 70.8
Fuente: OMC
Estados Unidos exportador
11
Part B Exports to major trading partners and duties faced
Major markets
Bilateral imports Diversification MFN AVG of Pref. Duty-free imports
in million 95% trade in no. of traded TL margin TL Value
US$ HS 2-digit HS 6-digit Simple Weighted Weighted in % in %
Agricultural products
1. China 2013 25,365 17 31 15.4 11.2 1.8 7.4 5.62. Canada 2013 21,256 27 254 22.4 12.0 5.8 91.7 97.53. Mexico 2013 19,557 30 406 22.2 38.4 37.3 96.0 94.44. Japan 2013 14,518 30 324 22.0 19.1 0.0 23.0 36.25. European Union 2013 12,163 28 168 14.7 4.7 0.0 14.0 49.2Non-agricultural products1. Canada 2013 212,581 59 1,267 2.5 2.2 2.2 100.0 100.02. European Union 2013 200,485 65 1,388 4.4 1.5 0.0 24.0 66.13. Mexico 2013 163,907 69 2,350 8.8 7.7 7.5 99.4 99.14. China 2013 120,416 56 888 9.0 5.0 0.0 8.8 36.55. Japan 2013 54,081 63 1,066 3.0 0.7 0.0 55.5 84.8
Fuente: OMC
Mexico importador
12
México MFN applied duties Imports
Product groupsAVG Duty-free Max Share Duty-free
in % in % in %Animal products 29.8 5.6 150 1.2 2.6Dairy products 27.0 3.1 75 0.5 9.0Fruit, vegetables, plants 16.6 5.2 150 0.6 4.3Coffee, tea 26.7 4.2 75 0.2 9.7Cereals & preparations 13.1 15.2 75 1.8 61.0Oilseeds, fats & oils 11.4 39.5 100 1.5 65.0Sugars and confectionery 43.3 0 150 0.3 0Beverages & tobacco 27.2 2.6 67 0.3 17.1Cotton 0.0 100.0 0 0.1 100.0Other agricultural products 6.7 47.6 36 0.6 57.0Fish & fish products 17.0 9.6 20 0.2 9.4Minerals & metals 2.8 75.6 15 12.0 80.4Petroleum 0.1 98.1 5 6.8 97.9Chemicals 2.4 72.2 27 12.5 56.9Wood, paper, etc. 4.4 50.8 15 3.0 65.7Textiles 9.8 11.4 25 2.4 21.8Clothing 21.1 0 25 0.8 0Leather, footwear, etc. 6.2 61.6 46 2.2 58.4Non-electrical machinery 2.8 77.8 20 16.9 89.8Electrical machinery 3.5 69.2 20 22.0 83.5Transport equipment 8.5 45.7 50 9.3 49.5Manufactures, n.e.s. 5.2 56.9 20 4.8 71.1
Fuente: OMC
Crecimiento promedio annual para el periodo 1994 - 2014
13
5.0
2.41.9
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Nor
th D
akot
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Colo
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Wyo
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Was
hing
ton
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ahom
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Mas
sach
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ska
Flor
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aVi
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aryl
and
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ted
Stat
esAr
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ork
Verm
ont
Tenn
esse
eN
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exic
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uth
Caro
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are
Conn
ectic
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ode
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kyDi
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Miss
issip
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Loui
siana
Mai
neW
est V
irgin
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wai
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ichi
gan
Fuente: US Bureau Census
Crecimiento anualT2-T3 2015
14Fuente: US Bureau Census
9.2
-3.4
1.9
3.7
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sout
h Da
kota
Kans
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Neb
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Stat
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Conn
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Dist
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kaW
est V
irgin
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orth
Dak
ota
Tasa de desempleoMayo 2016
15Fuente: Bureau of Labour Statistics
6.7
2.5
4.75.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Alas
kaIll
inoi
sLo
uisia
naW
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exic
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Verm
ont
Neb
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amps
hire
Sout
h Da
kota
Cuota de mercado de las importaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos
Mexico62,799
28%
Canada9%
China17%
Japan9%
Germany7%
Korea5%
Taiwan2%
Italy2%
Thailand1%
Other20%
Total NAFTA37%
Fuente: UN Comtrade
Mexico41,563
32%
Canada29%
China4%
Germany3%
United Kingdom3%
Japan2%
Australia2%
Brazil2%
Korea2%
Other21%
Cuota de mercado de las exportaciones de autopartes de Estados-Unidos
Total NAFTA61%
Fuente: UN Comtrade
@eledeceTwitter: @cmm_mx
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cmm.mx
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