2015 2015 5 7

2017

2020

2025

2030

De Boer, D., Roldao, R., and Slater, H., 2015 2015 2015 8

Peter Edwards

5 100035

+86-13051209659

perteredwards@chinacarbon.info

Peter

Edwards ICF

—— Hugh Kater

Frank Jotzo

2013 Jotzo

——

—— Harriet

Dalrymple Tor Skudal André Aasrud Carina Heimdal

ICF Fiona Atkinson

ICF

CCF

CCF

CCF Peter Edwards , peteredwards@chinacarbon.info

ICF

/ ICF 1500

ICF

20

ICF Renato Roldao , renato.roldao@icfi.com

................................................................................................................................................ 1

........................................................................................................................................................ 5

......................................................................................................................... 6

........................................................................................................................... 10

............................................................................................................................... 14

....................................................................................................................................... 20

.............................................................................................................................. 23

.............................................................................................................................................. 24

............................................................................................................................... 25

1 ................................................................................................................................ 27

2 ................................................................................................................................ 37

3 .................................................................................................................... 37

2015 CCF ICF

2015 5 7 304

2013 CCEP

2015 21

2017

304 37%

22% 14% 9% 7%

79%

2013 2014

2013 10 100 /

2014 2015 2015 5 6

9 /

42 /

88%

2016

33-55 /

37%

68%

1%

1

2017

33%

2018 74% 2020

2017 39 / 2018

45 / 2020 56 / 2025 70 /

2025 40

/ 100 /

1 Q5-4

2018

63%

MRVA

36% 2016

2020

82%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

/

/

2

2 Q3-1 [ / ]2016 2020 ?

3

2025

3 Q6-1 3

4%

30% 32%

52% 44%

16% 20%

2%

2016 2020

14% 26% 30% 6%

17% 23%

10%

14%

21%

19%

16%

11%

26%

14%

8% 25% 13% 7%

2015 2020 2025

3

83%

45% 2020 2025

65%

2013 2013 67% 2020

2016 23 / 2018 31 /

2020 40 / 2025 50 /

52%

2030

2013 70% 2025

82% 2025

2030 5 10

2030

2030

2015 6

82% 2030 39%

2025 1

2030

4 Q7-1

1 52% 2025

36%

16%

24%

43%

15%

4%

2020 2021 – 2025 2026 – 2030 2031 – 2035 2035

4

2015

ICF

2013 2013

CCEP

2015 21

2017

2005

2020 40-45% 2030 60-65% 2

2017

2013 2014

“ ”

2 / GDP

5

ICF

ICF

2015 5 25 7 17 SurveyMonkey3 304 4

2013 2015

2015 304

2013 86

3 2013 86 70 465

60

ICF

ICF

/ 800

LinkedIn Facebook

ICF 153 151

4 53

6

304 37%

22%

79%

14%

9% 7% 4% 2%

1% 0.3%

70

1 Q1-2

n=304

279 92% 25

8% 2013

91% 51%

68

19

11

5

37%

7%

2%

2%

/

1%

15%

9%

4%

23%

7%

7

5000 / ——32%——

1 / ——28% 5

2 Q1-6 Q1-4

——

5 12

7 5 IT1 1

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

< 5,000 5,000 to 50,000 50,000 - 500,000 500,000 - 1,000,000

> 1,000,000

8

66%

27% 7%

46%

ICF

8% 7%

3 Q1-1 ——

9

2011 10

2013 6 2014 6 2013

56% 2014

2013 2014

2013 10 100 /

2014 2015 2015 5 6

9

/ 42 / 2015 7 31

2013 2014 2016 2018

2014

2014 2013

2014

4 2013 2014

ICF

2015

41% 47%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

/

2013 2014

10

2015

5 Q4-1

2013

2015

6 Q4-4 2015 12 31 2016 12 31

2016

36%

38%

37%

47%

50%

63%

51%

42%

14%

12%

11%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

/

2015 2016

11

2016 12 / 2016

304 238 “ ”

147 “ ” 104 “ ”

“ ”

7 Q4-2 ?

48%

41%

51%

27%

29%

73%

25%

25%

30%

27%

24%

/

12

“ ”

“ ” “ ” “ ” “

” “ ”

8 Q4-3

1%

22% 22%20% 20%

15%

-

-

-

-

-

13

264

2016

33% 41%

25%

2016

2017

9 Q5-1 2016

25%

33%

41%

7

14

2016

2017

33%

2018 74%

2020

83% 45%

2020 2013 67%

2020

10 Q5-2

Q6-3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 – 2018 2019 – 2020 2021 – 2025 2025

ETS

15

0 6 2017

39 / 2018 45 / 2020 56 / 2025

70 / 7 20258

40 / 100 /

43%

11 Q5-4

2018

6 0 0 0

7 2017 5.72 / 2018 6.60 /2020 8.07 / 2025 10.27 / 2015 7 31http://oanda.com

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

/

16

12 Q5-4 ? ——

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2017 2018 2020 2025

/

-

-

-

-

17

64%

2016 23 / 2018 31 / 2020 40

/ 2025 50 /

2020

0 2016 12

/ 2018 17 / 2020 23 / 2025 32 /

13 Q6-4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2016 2018 2020 2025

/

18

2025 2030

2025 27%

2030 52% 15%

2013

70% 2025

19

2016

14 Q2-1

2016 ?

64%

” MRVA “ ” “ ” “

”

63%

37%

20

15 Q2-2

63%

21%

16 Q3-2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

21%

68%

71%

18%

11%

11%

21

82% 14

/

90% 79%

17 Q3-3 ? ——

41

29

47

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

(CCERs)

22

2016 2020

2016 36%

44% 2020

82% 2% 2020

2020 50

18 Q3-1 [ / ]2016 2020

4%

30% 32%

52% 44%

16% 20%

2%

2016 2020

- 2016

2020

- 2016

- 2020

23

2025

19 Q6-1 3

2016-2020

14% 26% 30% 6%

17% 23%

10%

14%

21%

19%

16%

11%

26%

14%

8% 25% 13% 7%

2015 2020 2025

24

2009 2020 GDP

2020 2005 40%~45% GDP

GDP 2015 6

2030 2005 60 65%

2025 2030

2025 82%

2030 61% 5 10 2030

2030

20 Q7-2 2025/2030

17%

61%

82%

37%

1% 1%

2025 2030

25

2014 11 2030

2015 6

82% 2030

39% 2025

2030

21 Q7-1 ?

16%

24%

43%

15%

4%

2020 2021 – 2025 2026 – 2030 2031 – 2035 2035

26

1

1 :

Q1-1 ?

- /

/

27

-

/ / /

Q1-2

Q1-2-2 [ ]

28

[ ] Q1-2-3 [ ]

-

-

Q1-3

- / - Q1-3-1 ? [

]

� � � � � � �

Q1-4 ?

5,000 /

5,000 - 50,000 /

50,000 - 500,000 /

500,000 - 1,000,000 /

1,000,000 /

Q1-5 ?

-

-

Q1-5-1 Q1-5

-

-

29

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

2 :

Q2-1:

2016 ?

-

-

Q2-2-1: Q2-1 ? (

2 3 )

-

-

-

-

-

-

Q2-2-2: Q2-1 ? (

2 3 )

-

-

-

-

-

-

30

-

3 :

Q3-1a: 2016 2020

/

Q3-1b: 2016 2020

?

/

Q3-2:

- -

Q3-2-1,

- -

Q3-3: ? [ ]

- - (CCERs)

31

- -

4 :

Q4-1 …….

- - -

Q4-2 ?

- - - -

Q4-3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Q4-4 2015 12 31 2016 12 31

/

32

/

2015 2016

- [ ]; - [ ]; - [ ]; - [ ]; - [ ]; - [ ]; - [ ]

5 :

Q5-1 2016

- 7 - - Q5-2

- 2016 2016 - 2017 – 2018 - 2019-2020 - 2021 - 2025 - 2025 - Q5-3 7

2016

- - -

Q5-4 ? /

- 2017 [ ] - 2018 [ ]

33

- 2020 [ ] - 2025 [ ]

6 :

Q6-1

2015 2020 2025 3 - - - - - - - Q6-2

3 - - - - - - - Q6-3

2016 2016 � 2017 – 2018 � 2019-2020 � 2021 - 2023 � 2023 � � Q6-4 ( / CO2).

34

/ CO2. - 2016 [ ] - 2018 [ ] - 2020 [ ] - 2025 [ ]

7 :

Q7-1: ?

2020 � 2021-2025 � 2026-2030 � 2031-2035 � 2035 �

Q7-2: 2025 2030

2025 � � �

2030 � � �

Q7-3: 2025 2030 ?

2025 � 2030 � 2030 � �

-

-

-

-

-

-

35

-

-

-

36

2

� 52 “ ”

2-1 3-1

2-1

�

� 1-2 11 “ ”

5 4 2

� 4-4 5-4

� 5-4 5-2 “ ” 0

� 6-4 6-3 “ ” 0

� 6-3 6-4 0

3

-

-

-

37

(SPF)

“ ”

“ ”

12 “ ” 2011-2015 13 “ ”

2016-2020

SPF -

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/china-prosperity-spf-

bidding-round

38

20

(POP)

(CCICED)

http://www.norway.cn/

39

1999

China Sustainable Energy Program

1999 2002

2

440

1560

http://www.efchina.org/

40