Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Volhoubare Landbou: Hoe bestuur ek die
politieke onsekerheid?
Sustainable Agriculture: How do I manage
the political uncertainty?
Kimberley
June 8 Junie 2017
@theo_venter
Theo VenterPolitical & Policy Specialist
Noordkaap Northern Cape
1.Hoe lyk ons VUCA-wêreld?
2.Hoe moet ek verandering hanteer?
3.Polariteite
4.Politieke verwagtinge
5.Kom ons maak sin
Uitleg
Wie wil verander?
Wie wil verandering hê?
Everybody Knows!
……….
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died……
From Leonard Cohen's album I'm Your Man, February 1988
“I don’t know I came here tonight;
I’ve got a feeling something ain’t right;
………..
Clowns to the left;
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with you!”
Steelers Wheel ‘60s
Reservoir Dogs
“I don’t know I came here tonight;
I’ve got a feeling something ain’t right;
………..
Clowns to the left;
Jokers to the right
Here I am
Stuck in the middle with you!”
Steelers Wheel ‘60s
Reservoir Dogs
‘n VUCA-wêreld
Die 2017 politieke en ekonomiese agenda
1. Ons is nou formeel in ‘n resessie, maar landbou doen uitstekend. Grootste mielie-oes ooit, maar op minder hektare.
2. Ons het self die resessie en afgradering veroorsaak –eie doele aangeteken.
3. ANC se interne woelinge het ‘n verlammende invloed op besluitneming.
4. Donald Trump en BREXIT maak niks makliker nie. Gelukkig bly Frankryk en Nederland stabiel.
5. Word Duitsland die nuwe Europa?
6. Wat van China en Indië?
7. Die einde van globalisering? Wie se nuus kan ons glo?
Die skep van ‘n eie toekomsDie pad deur paradoks
(Aangepas uit: Handy, 1994, The
Empty Raincoat pp 49-64)
Rigting van selfgerigdetransformasie
Kritiesedeurmekaarspul
Omgewings-verandering
Ruwe ontwaking
Chaos enOnsekerheid
Eerste kurweEwolusionêre ontwikkeling
Tweede kurweSkep van onmoontlike
resultate
Die skoenlapper-effek
Risiko
Op die rant van chaosDie sone van kreatiwiteit en aanpassing
Ontplooiende ordeVreemde aantrekkingskrag
� Onvermoë on te sien� Kontras en polariteite
� Konfrontasie
� Onvermoë om te beweeg� Bestemming
� Bronne
� Erkenning en vergoeding
� Onvermoë om klaar te maak� Ons word moeg
� Ons is verlore
Wat maak ons moeg?
� Ons het almal ons eie padkaarte in ons
koppe (mental maps).
� Ons lees ons eie kaarte op ons eie
manier.
� Soms maak ons dinge te eenvoudig.
� Ons word verblind deur ons eie insig.
Onvermoë om te sien
Kalifornië deur Hernán Cortés (1541)
Goeienuuskaarte
Soos Bostonians na die VSA kyk!
Verwronge kaarte
‘n ou Sjinese kaart
Selfgesentreerde kaarte
Ou Europese kaart om van een klooster nadie ander te beweeg
Strookkaarte
Oogklappe
en
persepsie
Soos die Aussies kyk
Onderstebo-kaarte
� Bestemming
� Jy moet dit kan sien;
� Jy moet die regte toerusting hê; en
� Daar moet ‘n beloning wees aan die einde.
� Bronne
� Jou toolbox moet reg wees vir die trek; en
� Jy moet glo in jou bestemming.
� Beloning
� Niemand gaan op reis sonder die belofte van ‘n
beloning nie.
Die onvermoë om te beweeg
1. Mense word moeg vir organisatoriese
verandering, want dit gaan nie oor die
verandering van die instansie nie, maar oor die
verandering van die mense.
2. Geen verandering is volhoubaar in enige
organisasie as die mense nie hulle denkwyse
verander nie.
Die onvermoë om klaar te maak
3. Die reis is te lank – ons raak verlore.
4. Vergeet waar ons begin het.
5. As jy verdwaal het niemand lus om
aan te gaan nie!
6. Verwarrende kop-kaarte!
Die onvermoë om klaar te maak
Polariteite…….
� Polariteite het interafhanklike alternatiewe.
� Polariteite is geneig om te ossileer sonder
finaliteit
� Daar is geen finale oplossing nie.
� Sonder oplossings beteken dat hulle deurlopend
bestuur moet word.
� Polariteite vereis ‘n “en” ingesteldheid (mindset)
en nie ‘n “dit-of-dat” oplossing nie.
‘n Tipiese polariteit
Positief
(Upside)
Positief
(Upside)
Negatief
(Downside)
Negatief
(Downside)
Ho
uv
as
aa
nd
ie h
uid
ige
we
rkli
kh
eid
Ve
ran
de
rin
gn
a‘n
nu
we
sit
ua
sie
1. Hulle is die veranderingsagente.
2. Hulle sien net die negatief van die huidige
situasie.
3. Hulle sien die positiewe sy of alternatief van die
veranderende situasie.
4. Hulle verskaf die energie om van die een pool
na die ander te beweeg.
Kruisvaarder (Crusading) denkwyse
Die kruisvaarders
Ve
ran
de
rd
ie h
uid
ige
sit
ua
sie
On
twik
ke
ln
uw
eid
ee
se
no
plo
ss
ing
s
Ongelukkigmet die huidigesituasie
Kan net die positief van
die alternatief
sien
• Hulle handhaaf die huidige stelsel.
• Hulle sien die positiewe faktore van die huidige
bedeling.
• Hulle sien net die negatiewe van die alternatief.
• Hulle verleen die energie om te vining te verander
en handhaaf die positiewe van die huidige
bedeling.
Die tradisie-vaste denkwyse
Die Tradisie-beskermers(Tradition-baring)
Be
sk
erm
die
be
sta
an
de
Sta
an
sk
ep
tie
ste
en
oo
ra
lte
rna
tie
we
op
los
sin
gs
Sien net die negatiewe
van die alternatief
Gelukkigmet die huidigesituasie
Bou ‘n brug.
Upside Upside
Downside Downside
De
ve
lop
th
e c
urr
en
t p
os
itio
n
Tra
ns
form
to
a n
ew
po
sit
ion
Politieke Risiko’s
Political Climate as a Constraint on Business
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
| 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 20 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
Political Climate since 1987 as measured in the Manufacturing Sector
Source: BER; Quantec; MFA DATABASE (Economic upswings shaded)
Decre
ase
Polit
ical C
onstr
ain
t
Incre
ase
2 Feb 1990
FW de Klerk becomes president
Dakar visit
Boipatong and East Rand violence
CODESA in limbo
New constitution1993
1994 Election
NP withdrew from GNU
1999 Election
Mandela retire
2004 Election
2009 Election
2014 Election
2016Local
Election
Mandela � Dec 2013
Nenegate 9/2015
Marikana2012
ANC MangaungZuma re-elected
ANC Polokwane
2007Zuma elected
2008 Global Financial Crisis
Economy booms under Mbeki
Nkandla3/2016
• Hulle is gewoonlik konsortia van politieke belange
• Hulle interne politieke debatte is dikwels teenstrydig
omdat hulle meervoudige politieke profete en
uitkomste aanhang.
• Hulle wil die samelewing gewoonlik herskep om hulle
ideologiese sienings te pas.
• Hulle het ‘n baie sterk sin vir selfregverdiging wat in
die dominante ideologie ingebou is.
Die kenmerke van bevrydingsbewegings (i)
• Hulle het baie sterk demokrasiese (populistiese)
verbintenisse, maar min verdraagsaamheid vir politieke
opposisie.
• Hulle probeer om opposisie te internaliseer – daarom
vind die veranderingsdebat in die koukus van die
meerderheidsparty plaas.
• Die vertaling van baie hoë vlakke van legitimiteit na
bestuurseffktiwiteit (governance) kom net deur politieke
pyn en tyd.
• Die bevrydingskultuur is baie aansteeklik en versprei
maklik na misdaad, oppertunisme en selfregverdiging
(entitlement).
Die kenmerke van bevrydingsbewegings (i)
• Onder bevrydingsregerings is daar unieke
geleenthede vir hernuwing en herskikking.
• Bevrydingsregerings kan baie effektief wees as hulle
voel hulle is in beheer.
• Bevrydingsregerings kan ook self-korrektief optree
wanneer onder druk.
• Onder bevrydingsregerings swaai die pendulum
van verandering altyd te ver, maar oor tyd
beweeg die pendulum weer terug na groter
balans (Gewoonlik een politieke generasie).
Die kenmerke van bevrydingsbewegings (i)
Most problematic factors doing business in South Africa 2016-2017
9. Tax rates
10. Access to financing
11. Inflation
12. Foreign currency regulations
13. Government instability
14. Tax regulations
15. Poor public health
16. Insufficient capacity of
innovate
1. Inefficient government
bureaucracy
2. Restrictive labour practices
3. Inadequately educated
workforce
4. Policy instability
5. Corruption
6. Crime and theft
7. Poor work ethic
8. Inadequate infrastructure
The Zuma heritage?
33
34
In order to sharpen the ANC’s model of socio-economic transformation, a package of decisive policy interventions is required. This package of policy interventions must be capable of achieving the following objectives: 1.1.1.1. Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment 2.2.2.2. Returning land to our people and supporting land reform Returning land to our people and supporting land reform Returning land to our people and supporting land reform Returning land to our people and supporting land reform 3.3.3.3. Increasing black ownership and control in the economy Increasing black ownership and control in the economy Increasing black ownership and control in the economy Increasing black ownership and control in the economy 4.4.4.4. Activating small businesses and coActivating small businesses and coActivating small businesses and coActivating small businesses and co----operatives operatives operatives operatives 5.5.5.5. Raising the level of investment Raising the level of investment Raising the level of investment Raising the level of investment 6.6.6.6. Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class 7.7.7.7. Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects 8.8.8.8. Reducing inequality and poverty Reducing inequality and poverty Reducing inequality and poverty Reducing inequality and poverty 9.9.9.9. Dismantling monopoly practices and structures Dismantling monopoly practices and structures Dismantling monopoly practices and structures Dismantling monopoly practices and structures 10.10.10.10. Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy 11.11.11.11. Improving integration into the African economy Improving integration into the African economy Improving integration into the African economy Improving integration into the African economy 12.12.12.12. Stimulating inclusive growth. Stimulating inclusive growth. Stimulating inclusive growth. Stimulating inclusive growth.
Land reform
223. Distribution of land and its productive utilization necessarily feature prominently in the programme of economic transformation. A variety of measures can massively change agricultural production and absorb the unemployed in the rural areas: for instance: • expansion of irrigated agricultural land;• promotion of commercial production; • identification of, and requisite assistance to, sectors and regions
with high potential; • and programmes to ensure access to product value chains by big
and small producers alike. These efforts should include creative utilisation of land in so-called ‘communal’ areas. Land redistribution and restitution will be speeded up; and land use management will be approached in a more systematic manner.
Opvolging in die ANC
Tyd om te beweeg?
38
Die twee faksies binne die ANC
• Cyril Ramaphosa• Zweli Mkhize• Gwede Mantashe• Lindiwe Sisulu• Thandi Modise• Matthews Phosa• Paul Mashatile (GP)• Noordkaap• Oos-Kaap• SAKP• COSATU• ANC Veterane “Stalwarts”• Dele KZN en Limpopo
• Jacob Zuma (Uitgaande)• Jesse Duarte• Baleka Mbete• Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma• Ace Magashule (VS)• Supra Mahemapelo (NW)• David Mabuza (MP)• Sihle Sikelele (KZN)• Bathabile Dlamini (ANCWL)• Colin Maine (ANCYL)• Kebby Maphetswe (MKVA)• 50% KZN• 50% Limpopo
Charteriste/Konstitusionaliste Premier Liga/ “Kripvreters”
Twee leierskapslyste
1. President: Dr Dlamini-Zuma
2. Dep President: Ace
Magashule
3. National Chair: Lindiwe Zulu
4. Secretary General: Nathi
Mthethwa
5. Deputy SG: Malusi Gigaba
6. Treasurer General: Fikile
Mbalula/ Supra Mahemapelo
1. President: Cyril Ramaphosa
2. Dep President: Lindiwe Sisulu
3. National Chair: Thandi Modise/
David Mabuza/ Zweli Mkize
4. Secretary General: Senzo
Mchunu (KZN)/ Zweli Mkize
5. Deputy SG: David Makura
6. Treasurer General: Paul
Mashatile
Samestelling van die ANC Kongres
Desember 2017 (4500 Afgevaardigdes)
CR 17
495
400
720
270
1885
Population Population Population Population estimateestimateestimateestimate
% of population% of population% of population% of population % of ANC % of ANC % of ANC % of ANC membershipmembershipmembershipmembership
Eastern Cape 7 061 700 12,6 16%Free State 2 861 600 5,1 7%Gauteng 13 498 200 24,1 11%KwaZulu-Natal 11 079 700 19,8 21%Limpopo 5 803 900 10,4 11%Mpumalanga 4 328 300 7,7 13%Northern Cape 1 191 700 2,1 3%North West 3 790 600 6,8 10%Western Cape 6 293 200 11,3 3%Total 55 908 900 100.00
@theo_venter 2017
Zuma’s 1st term as state president (2009-2014) Zuma’s 2nd term as state president (2014-2019)
ANC as government: State dynamics
Zuma’s 2nd term as ANC president (2012-2017)
ANC as political party: Political dynamics
Dec 2012Mangaung
Elective Conference
May 2014General Election
Oct 2015 ANC National
General Council
2016 Local Government
Elections
2017ANC Policy Conference
Dec 2017 ANC
Elective Conference
May 2019General election
Dec 2012 May 2014 Dec 2017 May 2019Oct 2015 Aug 2016 Jun 2017
New ANC president for five year term
2017-2022
Zone of Uncertainty
Replacing Zuma: A two centres of power scenario?
Kom ons maak sin
Negative trends
Positive trends
Political Developments
Banking and financial system
Independent Judiciary
and media
Stable but robust
political system
Good infrastructure able to execute mega projects
Crime and corruption
Weak economyUnemployment
PovertyRestrictive
labour regime
Government inefficiency and
policy uncertainty
Inefficient education
system@theo_venter ©Theo Venter 201744
InklusiefWeerstandiges
Inklusiewe en aktiewe
bevorderaars
Passiewe Weerstandiges
Selektiewebevorderaars
Laag
Div
ers
iteit
Hoog
Geesdrif vir Suid-AfrikaLaag Hoog
Hoe oorleef ons in ‘n VUCA-wêreld?
1.1.1.1. InnoveerInnoveerInnoveerInnoveer enenenen skep skep skep skep joujoujoujou toekomstoekomstoekomstoekoms;;;;
2.2.2.2. VoerVoerVoerVoer planneplanneplanneplanne uituituituit met met met met spoedspoedspoedspoed enenenen buigsaamheidbuigsaamheidbuigsaamheidbuigsaamheid –––– dogma dogma dogma dogma
enenenen ideologieideologieideologieideologie is is is is joujoujoujou vyandevyandevyandevyande;;;;
3.3.3.3. IdentifiseerIdentifiseerIdentifiseerIdentifiseer joujoujoujou ankersankersankersankers in die in die in die in die lewelewelewelewe;;;;
4.4.4.4. SoekSoekSoekSoek virvirvirvir eenvoudeenvoudeenvoudeenvoud –––– om om om om kompleksiteitkompleksiteitkompleksiteitkompleksiteit tetetete hanteerhanteerhanteerhanteer;;;;
5.5.5.5. SamewerkingSamewerkingSamewerkingSamewerking –––– alleenalleenalleenalleen is is is is jyjyjyjy magteloosmagteloosmagteloosmagteloos;;;;
6.6.6.6. HouHouHouHou aanaanaanaan met leer met leer met leer met leer –––– houhouhouhou by by by by enenenen ontwikkelontwikkelontwikkelontwikkel enenenen
7.7.7.7. OntwikkelOntwikkelOntwikkelOntwikkel ‘n ‘n ‘n ‘n oorlewingsdrangoorlewingsdrangoorlewingsdrangoorlewingsdrang –––– belêbelêbelêbelê in in in in
veerkragtigheidveerkragtigheidveerkragtigheidveerkragtigheid
Theo VenterTheo VenterTheo VenterTheo VenterPolitieke en Beleidspesialis
NWU Besigheidskool, Potchefstroom@theo_venter
Dankie virjulle aandag
