WEAP-LEAP Integrated Planning Tool for Sustainable Development in the Mekong Region

International Conference "Thai Water 2013: Water for the Future", 6-7 June 2013,

BITEC, Bangkok, Thailand.

ดร.ชญานิศ กฤตสุทธาชีวะChayanis Krittasudthacheewa, Ph.D.

Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)chayanis.k@sei-international.org

CSIRO. Ex Source: CSIRO (2012). Exploring Mekong Region Futures

Mekong region is highly connectedประเทศในภูมิภาคแม่นํ�าโขงมีความเกี!ยวขอ้งกนัอยา่งมาก

• ~270m people, ~2.3m km2

• Connecting dynamics: Investment flows, migration, natural resources

• Local/National decisions but regional implications likely (Water, Food, Energy)

To understand potential impacts from the development at one place, it is not sufficient to consider only internal factors within the

area and within a sector anymore.

Hoff, 2011

Content

1. Introduction to water, energy and food security nexus

2. Key nexus issues in the context of Mekong region

3. Opportunities to improve water, energy and food security – through integrated planning tool

4. Conclusions

© SEI/Roengchai KONGMUANG

5

1. Introduction to Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus

1. Climate changes hydrology and we can adapt to those changes by re-operating infrastructure

2. Climate also influences both water and electricity demand.

3. Meanwhile energy generation needs a lot of water, for the mining and processing of fuels, cooling of thermal and nuclear powerplants, and the production of hydropower …

4. …while energy is needed for pumping and treating water and waste-water, and for various uses at home …

5. …and fossil fuel combustion for energy production emits climate changing GHGs

Source: Vishal

• Hydropower development• Bio-energy crop

expansion• Irrigation Development• Agriculture infrastructure• Energy for fertilizers• etc.

Water intensity for electricity generation Photo voltaics concentrating

solar powergas coal /oil/

nuclearhydropower biofuels

m3 / MWh~ 0 ~ 2 ~ 1 ~ 2 ~ 60 ~ 180

Hoff, 2011

2. Key nexus issues in the context of Mekong Region

Renewable Energy Plan (PDP 2010 Rev. 3)

Type Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Biogas MSW Tides & Waves Total

As of 2011 747 138 3 31 106 21 2 1,048

Additional(2012-2030)

2,602 3,802 1,974 705 46 353 - 9,482

Grand Total 3,349 3,940 1,977 736 152 374 2 10,530

AEDP

http://www.eppo.go.th

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Wind1,977 MW

Solar3,940 MW

Biomass3,349 MW

Hydro : 736 MWBiogas : 152 MW

MSW : 374 MWTides & Waves : 2 MWTotal Capacity at the end of 2030 : 10,530 MW

MW

Source: MOE, Thailand

AEDP= Alternative Energy Development Plan

Policy: Renewable Energy Target: 25% in 2021.

Thailand Energy Security & Transboundary Impacts

• Thailand’s economy is growing but domestic

fossil fuel resources are declining

• Thai government’s strategy is to pursue

diversification of supply to achieve energy

security

• Thailand’s hydropower potential is limited and

energy from hydropower in Laos and

Myanmar is cheap

• As the key energy purchaser, Thailand provides

incentives for neighbouring countries and

private investors to develop hydropower

• Thai consumers and companies harvest the

benefits and ‘export’ the social and

environmental costs of hydropower

Source: Jensen and Lange (2012)

http://en.wikipedia.org/

Power Purchase from Neighboring Countries

Countries

Capacity as MOU

(MW)

Lao PDR 7,000

Myanmar 1,500

China 3,000

Cambodia Not Specified

Malaysia 300 MW (HVDC)

(MOU 22 December 2007)

(MOU 4 July 1997)

(MOU 12 November 1998)

(MOU 3 February 2000)

(MOU 6 May 2004)

http://www.eppo.go.thSource: MOE, Thailand

3. Opportunities to improve water, energy and food security – through integrated planning tool

• Nexus approach can support a transition to sustainability,by reducing trade-offs and generating additional benefits that outweigh the transaction costs associated with stronger integration across sectors.

• Such gains should appeal to national interest and encourage governments, the private sector and civil society to engage.

• Capacity building and awareness in terms of understanding the trade-offs from the development across sectors and building a dialogue among water, energy and agriculture practitioners is needed in the Mekong region.

Water Evaluation And Planning Systemwww.weap21.org

• Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning model

• GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface

• Physical simulation of water demands and supplies

• Additional simulation modeling: modeling equations and links to spreadsheets, scripts & other models

• Scenario management capabilities

• Groundwater, water quality, reservoir, hydropower and financial modules

• More than 10,000 registered users over the world

• Translated to more than 20 languages

Source: Purkey, D.

WEAP application to explore the futures (with uncertainties) in Northeastern Thailand

Scenarios1. Climate change

scenario2. Landuse change

(biofuel expansion)3. Transboundary water

diversion4. Small scale irrigation

project5. Future livelihoods

(linking with livelihood model for poverty assessment)

Modified from Polpanich O.

Using WEAP for climate change impact assessment

SEA START modelled daily data for a hypothetical future 20-year period (2011-2030) were used. They were � High GHG (ECHAM 4 A2) the

regional emission scenario (120,000 CO2 tonnes equivalent per annum of

GHG and +3.4 deg Celsius� Low GHG (ECHAM 4 B2) the

emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental

stability (40,000 CO2 tonnesequivalent per annum of GHG and

+2.4 deg Celsius)

Modified from Polpanich O.

Using WEAP to the proposed water development plans

The development of transboundary water from Nam Ngum in Laos, Hueyluang, Lampao, Chi

river diversion and Kong-Loei-Chi-Mun in Northeastern Thailand. The proposed project

will be significantly directing future national and local development.

Meanwhile, the project did explore the potential to increase storage capacity within the basin,

considering only available water within the catchment and the absence of additional water

from external sources.

Modified from Polpanich O.

ปริมาณนําท่าที ท้ายนําของห้วยสายบาตร

• มีการดึงนํ�าเขา้สู่ระบบชลประทานเพื!อเพิ!มปริมาณนํ�าท่าในหว้ยสายบาตร

• การใชน้ํ� าเฉพาะในพื�นที!เพื!อตอบสนองความตอ้งการนํ�าในการทาํการเกษตรในพื�นที!หว้ยสายบาตร ทาํใหป้ริมาณนํ�าท่าที!ทา้ยนํ�าลดลง

0

100

200

300

400

2553 2558 2563 2568 2573

stre

am

flo

w (

mil

lio

n m

3)

D1 Transboundary Irrigation D2 Smaller scale irrigation Reference

มีโครงการขนาดใหญ่ D1

มีโครงการ D2

การเกบ็กกันํ� าไปใชใ้นฤดูแลง้ (Seasonal Transfer of Water)

D2 พฒันาโครงการขนาดเลก็ Small-Scale (reservoir at top of Huai Sai Baht)

Using WEAP to explore future livelihoods (linking with livelihood model for livelihoods option and poverty assessment)

Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System

www.energycommunity.org • Integrated energy planning and GHG mitigation assessment.

• Local, national, regional and global applicability.

• Energy, emissions and cost-benefit assessment.

• Powerful and user-friendly data management, reporting & scenario building tools.

• Choice of methods: simulation/optimization & engineering/econometrics. Specialized models available for detailed assessment of transport and electric generation sectors.

• More than 10,000 users in 190 countries including Governments, NGOs, utilities, universities, consulting companies.

• Widely applied by countries undertaking GHG mitigation assessments for their National Communications to the UNFCCC, and for developing Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS).

Source: Purkey, D.

• Explores how global energy systems can be reconfigured to address sustainability whilst also providing meaningful development and poverty alleviation.

• Study led by SEI with involvement of IIASA, PBL, TERI and WRI.

• Energy and emissions scenarios to 2050 developed in LEAP for 22 global regions.

• Three scenarios:– Baseline

– Basic Energy Access

– Shared Development Agenda

• Published at Rio+20

Emissions

Poverty

Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: A Global Assessment for Rio+20, 2012

Source: Purkey, D.

LEAP + WEAP for the WFE Nexus

Actual hydropower generation & available cooling water.

Water sector energy requirements

Water requirements for hydropower & thermal cooling

Assumptions on hydropower & fossil generation

Water sufficiency and hydropower generation Energy demand

Energy Demand

Water Demand

Water Supply

Energy Supply

Hydropower energy & cooling water requirements

www.weap21.org www.energycommunity.org

WEAP and LEAP are available free of charge to all government, academic and not-for-profit organizations in developing countries (license fee and update fee are of a great

concern of non-profit organization in developing countries)In Thailand there are more than 400 registered LEAP users and more than 150

registered WEAP users.

Mekong for Now, Mekong Forever Project –Invitation for collaboration ☺☺☺☺

Motivation• The GMS is undergoing rapid development based

heavily on renewable natural resources: water, land, and food

• The potential for a sustainable development in the region is high, but currently unsustainable practices dominate

• Navigating towards a sustainable future in a rapidly-changing and complex region presents many challenges

Goals• Engage both policy and civil society actors to think

about GMS development in an ASEAN context using participatory foresight techniques

• Leverage existing modeling platforms and efforts in the GMS to construct a linked energy-water-food model to explore alternative regional futures

geni.org

wle.cgiar.org

knowledge.allianz.com

4. Conclusions

blog.pac-online.com

malaysianwireless.com

• Mekong region is highly connected because of transboundarymigration, investment and how natural resources are sourced and processed.

• We cannot manage water considering only water sector only any anymore. Nexus approach can support a transition to sustainability by reducing trade-offs and generating additional benefits across sectors.

• Key nexus issues in the Mekong region include hydropower development, bio-energy crop expansion , irrigation development, agricultural infrastructure.

• Capacity building and awareness in terms of understanding the trade-offs from the development across sectors and building a dialogue among water, energy and agriculture practitioners is needed in the Mekong region.

• Conceptual nexus framework used to develop an integrated water and energy modeling platform

• Linked WEAP-LEAP model can assess water and energy trade-offs, with real-world policy implications. These models are available free of charge to all governments, academic and not-for-profit organizations in developing countries

5. References

1. Hoff, H. (2011): Understanding the Nexus. Background Paper for the Bonn2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm.

2. Krittasudthacheewa, C., Polpanich, O., Bush, A., Kemp-Benedict, E., (in preparation). Impact of Uncertain Future Climate and Development on Agricultural Water Management in Northeastern Thailand. Smakhtin, V., Johnston, R., Chu T., H.: Climate Change and Agricultural Water Management. CABI Climate Change Series.

3. Kurt Mørck Jensen and Rane Baadsgaard Lange (2012) New Development Financiers, Civil Society and Climate Change in Transboundary Water Governance in the Mekong River. DIIS-SEI Seminar, SEI – Asia, Bangkok, 6th June 2012

6. Acknowledgement

1. Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE), the King

Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi

2. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

3. Australian Agency for International Development (AusAid)

4. Department of Water Resources (DWR), Thailand

Contact:

ดร. ชญานศิ กฤตสุทธาชวีะ

Chayanis KRITTASUDTHACHEEWA, Ph.D.(Ms)

Programme Manager,

Sustainable Mekong Research Network (SUMERNET)

Website: http://www.sumernet.org/

Deputy Centre Director,

Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

15th Floor, Witthyakit Building, 254 Chulalongkorn University,

Soi Chula 64, Phyathai Road, Pathumwan Sub-district, Pathumwan District, Bangkok 10330, THAILAND.

Tel: +66 (0)2 251 4415 (ext. 101), Fax: +66 (0)2 251 4419

Skype: Chayanis K.

E-mail: chayanis.k@sei-international.org

Website: http://sei-international.org/

th-th.facebook.com

Example of integrated LEAP -WEAP for Nexus Issues

THE CALIFORNIA APPLICATION

Residential35%

Industry21%

Commercial34%

Water Sector10%

Trans-mission

33%

Potable Supply39%

Agricultural Supply

29%

California Electricity for Water

• Electricity Demand • Geographic

• Buildings and Industry• Water Sector from WEAP

• Electricity Generation• Gas, Coal

• Hydropower From WEAP• GHG Emissions

• Climate Driven Hydro• 300+ Watersheds

• 63 Rivers/24 GW Basins• 53 Reservoirs, >125 BMC

• Demand • M&I Demand

• Agricultural Demand• Thermal cooling from LEAP• Hydropower to LEAP

A Desalination Scenario for Southern California

Image: Sydney Water

Water Delivered by Source

Changes In Electricity Use from Desalination

Change in Emissions from Desalination

Mill

ion

Changing Fuel Mix in Drought