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WELCOME TO NMC/CMA. Who We Are. National Meteorological Centre, CMA’s national centre for weather operations and relevant research Founded in 1950 Total number of employees: 251. Organization of New NMC. Administration Office. Administration Office. Division of O, R & D. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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WELCOME TO
NMC/CMA
WELCOME TO
NMC/CMA
Who We AreWho We Are National Meteorological Centre,
CMA’s national centre for weather operations and relevant research
Founded in 1950
Total number of employees: 251
国家气象中心
(NMC)
国国家家气气象象中中心心NMCNMC
Administrative Departments
Administrative Sector
(29 staffs)
Basic Operations
Basic
Operation Sector(116 staffs)
CommercialServices
CommercialServices
(106 staffs)
Division of OperationDivision of O, R & D
Planning&Financial Affairs
Integrative Office
Weather Office
Specialized Meteorological Service
Logistic Service
Remote Sensing Application
Personal Division
Organization of New NMCOrganization of New NMC Administration Office Administration Office
Agricultural & Ecological Met.
Met. Service for Decision-making
Division of NWP
Forecast System Laboratory
23%
18%43%
16%大学其他硕士博士
科研、业务人员学历分布情况
博士 1919 人 硕士 4949 人 大学 27 人 其他 21 人
Ph.D 1919 Master 49 Bachelor 27 Others 21
Education level of staffs in basic operation sector
67
2318
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
<35岁 35-45岁 45-55岁 >55岁
人数Number
科研、业务人员年龄结构科研、业务人员年龄结构 Structure of staff's age in basic operation sectorStructure of staff's age in basic operation sector
Meteorological service to central government Meteorological service to public and external
user community Special meteorological service to specific users
(commercial service) Technical instruction to local weather offices Relevant international duties on meteorology (e.g. (e.g. as a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center
and an Environmental Emergence Response Center of WMO ) )
Main ResponsibilitiesMain Responsibilities
What We DoWhat We Do
Public weather forecasts
(include environmental meteo.)
Decision-making support
Guidance to support local
meteorological offices
Weather forecasts to day 5Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches, forecasts and warningsCity air quality predictionsForecasts of forest fire potentialForecasts of geolo. disaster (landslip) potential
Weather forecasts to day 5Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches, forecasts and warningsCity air quality predictionsForecasts of forest fire potentialForecasts of geolo. disaster (landslip) potential
Severe weather watches, forecasts & outlooksAnalyses of impacts of severe weather and climate events on public and economicsInformation on meteorological disasters and disasters derived from meteorologyWatches on forest fire, flood, growing of cropsAnalyses on meteo. condition for agri. and crops yield forecastsEmergence response to harmful polluting events
Severe weather watches, forecasts & outlooksAnalyses of impacts of severe weather and climate events on public and economicsInformation on meteorological disasters and disasters derived from meteorologyWatches on forest fire, flood, growing of cropsAnalyses on meteo. condition for agri. and crops yield forecastsEmergence response to harmful polluting events
Medium-range weather forecasts to day 7Short-range weather forecasts to day 3Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches , forecasts and warningsForecasts of convective phenomena locationPotential forecasts of geological disaster to day 2UV index forecasts to day 2Crops yield forecasts
Medium-range weather forecasts to day 7Short-range weather forecasts to day 3Severe weather (Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm, Strong winds, and Hot wave etc.) watches , forecasts and warningsForecasts of convective phenomena locationPotential forecasts of geological disaster to day 2UV index forecasts to day 2Crops yield forecasts
What We DoWhat We Do
NWP operational model development and operations
Remote-sensing application
Agricultural & ecological meteorology
Global model (T213L31)Regional/ Meso-scale models (HLAFS025/27km)OI/3DVAR data assimilationEPS (T106L19-32mumbers)Typhoon track modelDust storm modelNuclear pollution transport & dispersion modelAir quality model
Products for severe weather watches (e.g. convective system, dust storm, typhoon, fronts)Products of atmospheric conditions and cloud properties (e.g. TBB, cloud water, cloud ice)Products of surface properties (albedo, SST, land use, terrain)Products for ecological & environmental watches (e.g. soil moisture, forest fire, NDVI, ice/snow cover, water coverage of lakes/rivers)
Agricultural meteo. data processingWatches on crops growing, soil condition, and meteo. environmental condition for agri.Assessment on agricultural meteo. disastersCrops yield forecasts (wheat, paddy, corn, cotton etc.)Watches on ecological environment Agricultural meteo. products to public
Classified by timeClassified by time
● ● Weather and environmental monitoring (0 hour)
● ●Nowcasting for severe weather (0-3 hour) and very short range forecast( 0-12 hour)
●●Short-range forecast (1-3 days) ●●Medium-range forecast (4-10 days) ●●Agriculture meteorological information (10 days)
●●Extended forecast for important synoptic event( 11-30 days)) ●●Annual crops yield forecasts
ProductsProducts
Classified by varietiesClassified by varieties●●Disastrous weather warning ( Typhoon, Torrential rain, Dust storm,
Gale, cold wave, severe convection and etc.)●●Weather forecast (cities and towns in China, world main cities)●●Tropical cyclone and oceanic meteorological forecast●●Crops growing and yield forecast●●Weather, climate and environmental monitoring (including flood, fire,
snow, dust storm, ecological environment, land use, typhoon, plant cover, SST, OLR, TBB and etc.)
●●Air quality forecast●●Diffusion forecast of nuclear pollution ●●Environmental index forecast●●Specialized meteorological services
ProductsProducts
ObservationObservation (8 July–8 September)(8 July–8 September)
Forecast of the Forecast of the 24 Hour Precipitation24 Hour Precipitation ((8 July 2003)8 July 2003)
Contrast of best track and forecast of typhoon Sinlaku
5 days earlier,we forecast the typhoon Sinlaku would landfall on the joint part of Zhejiang and Fujian province,so that 640000 people were evacuated.
Best track
Forecast track
190.8164.6145.7
133
374.4
311.4
233.9227.6
0
50
100150
200
250
300
350400
24h 48h
85-99200020012002
Mean distance errors of tropical cyclone predictions (km)Mean distance errors of tropical cyclone predictions (km)
72 Hour High Temperature Forecast andObservation 2 Aug., 2003
Typhoon Monitoring by Doppler RadarTyphoon Monitoring by Doppler Radar
Typhoon Monitoring by SatelliteTyphoon Monitoring by Satellite
Dust Storm RouteDust Storm Route
Started on 19 March, 2002, severe dust storm occurred in NW, north and NE of China. The source of this process was from middle and west part of Mongolia and middle and west part of Inner Mongolia.
Dust Storm Route Dust Storm Route 3/20/2002 3/20/2002 (( 0808 ))
2002.3.18—3.212002.3.18—3.21
蒙古高原蒙古高原
浑善达克沙地浑善达克沙地科尔沁沙地科尔沁沙地
哈顺戈壁哈顺戈壁
中央戈壁中央戈壁
乌兰布和沙漠库布齐沙漠
塔克拉玛干沙漠塔克拉玛干沙漠
库姆塔格沙漠库姆塔格沙漠 巴丹吉林沙漠
滕格里沙漠 毛乌素沙地
Dust Storm RouteDust Storm Route
—— —— dust dust 杨沙杨沙—— —— dust stormdust storm 沙尘暴沙尘暴—— —— severe dust storm severe dust storm 强沙尘暴强沙尘暴0800h 20 March
Dust Storm Observation and Numerical ForecastDust Storm Observation and Numerical Forecast
ObservationObservation
Numerical ForecastNumerical Forecast
Our future is build Our future is build uponupon
Improving watches and forecasts of extreme events
Seamless weather forecast products Extension of meteo. forecast field through a
collaborative approach with other agencies Improving NWP model performance by
improving data assimilation and model physics Addressing uncertainty in forecasts ——
ensemble modeling/forecasts
数值预报室 (39) NWP Division
Organizational Structure of NWP Division 数值预报室机构设置
天气预报室 (52) Weather Office
资料
同化
科 (
6)D
ata
assi
mil
atio
n
NMCNMO
模式
2科
(6)
(边
界层
/陆面
/扩散
模式
) M
odel
ing
2模式
1科
(6)
(模
式框
架/云
/降
水/辐
射)
M
odel
ing
1
科 7-Branches
业务
运行
科 (
5)N
WP
ope
rati
on
行政
与业
务秘
书
(2)
Secr
etar
y
国家气象中心 中央气象台
模式
3科
(4)
(台
风与
集合
预报
)T
ypho
on &
EPS
模
式检
验与
评价
科 (
4) e
rifi
cati
on
on N
WP
pro
duct
s
系统
集成
与技
术支
持科
(4)
Tec
hnic
al
Sup
port
ing
环境气象预报室 Enviro - Meteo Forecast office
NWP operational systemsNWP operational systems “T213L31” Global medium-range NWP system (60km) “HLAFS” Limited area short-range NWP system (27km) Typhoon track NWP system (60km) Meso-scale NWP system (based on MM5, 27km/9km) Medium-range Ensemble Prediction System (32 members
T106L19) (new generation of EPS is underdevelopment) Air quality model system (coupled with meso-scale model) Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system
(coupled with T213L31 model) UVI prediction system (coupled with T213L31 model) Dust-storm model system (nested with T213L31 model)
Year 2003 2004 2006 2008资料同化 OI 方案 Operation
Data assi- 3DVAR Testing Quasi-oper, oper ATOVS MODIS,
Radar, Auto-OBS
mulation 4DVAR/E-KF Research Developing
大气模式 Global T213L31 Operation T319L31/60 Oper
T639L60 Oper
Atmos- Regional HLAFS025 GRAPES &
/MM5 Oper,CHLAFS devel.
GRAPES Quasi CHLAFS Quasi
GRAPES OperCHLAFS Oper.
Model Muti-scale GRAPES Developing Testing
Quasi-oper,
Operation
集合预报 T106 32-Members Operation
EPS New EPS (BGM)Super-EPS regional
Devel. & testDeveloping
T213 EPS Oper GRAPES /CHLAFS EPS
台风系统MTTP
Regional-MTTP Oper Global-MTTP Operation, Improving
0
20
40
60
80
100
82.1 83.1 84.1 85.1 86.1 87.1 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.1 92.1 93.1 94.1 95.1 96.1 97.1 98.1 99.1 y2.1 2001 2002
B-MODEL
RM
SE
48h
96h
144h
50rms
T106L19T42L9 T63L16
国家气象中心业务数值预报演变 500HPA(北半球 高度场均方根误差)
T213L31
OPERATIONAL NWP IN NMCOPERATIONAL NWP IN NMC
RMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERERMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERE
JMA
CMA
ECMWF
与国外模式的比较 (2003.8)北半球 500hPa 高度距平相关系数差距依然明显(可用时效比 EC短 1.5天、比日本短 0.5-1天)
> 0.1mm
> 10.0mm
> 25.0mm
> 50.0mm
> 100.0mm
Relevant Work undergoingRelevant Work undergoing
Global model and data assimilation Model vertical resolution Data assimilation scheme & use of ATOVS
Meso-scale models CHALFS—modified based on WRF GRAPES---developed by domestic scientists
EPS development
Vertical level distributionVertical level distribution
L31
L60
OI
3DVAR
Parallel testing
2424 小时累计降水小时累计降水
Impact of ATOVS data on precipitation forecast
Flow chart of WRF experimental system
• 数据预处理 数据预处理 SISI
• 3DVAR3DVAR
• WRFWRF
• 结 果 后 处 理结 果 后 处 理Post Post
processingprocessing
• 模式 结果检验 模式 结果检验 VerificationVerification
WR
F-3D
VA
R
系统的时间流程安
排
系统的运行
2003 年 7 月 4 日 24小时降水预报与实况
Huai River flooding case
OBS
Simulation
20km 水平分辨率 5km 水平
分辨率
20032003 年年 66 月月 2222 日日 2424 小时降水预报图小时降水预报图
OBS
实况OBS
原方案 国产方案Own schemeOriginal one
GRAPES---domestic madeGRAPES---domestic made
A 60km regional version of GRAPES has been put in real time testing since May 2004
Preliminary results show that its performance and results are basically reasonable
2004 6 23 7 18年 月 日至 月 日国家气象中心客观降水预报全国累加检验
0
0. 1
0. 2
0. 3
0. 4
0. 5
0. 6
0. 7
24h 48h 时效
TS
GRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRF
2004 6 23 7 18年 月 日至 月 日国家气象中心主客观降水预报全国累加检验
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
24h 48h 时效
B GRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRFGRAPESHLAFS25T213MM5WRF