Workshop on Demographic Analysis and Evaluation. Mortality: Estimation from Child Survivorship Data وفيات: تقدير من بيانات حالة البقاء على الحياة

Workshop on

Demographic Analysis and Evaluation

Mortality: Estimation from

Child Survivorship Dataبيانات: من تقدير وفياتالحياة على البقاء حالة

الطفل

Child Mortality as an Index of Mortality Level

الوفيات لمستوى كمؤشر األطفال وفيات معدل

In this part of the workshop we will cover:

: تغطي سوف ونحن الحلقة من الجزء هذا في An indirect technique for estimating child mortality

from child survivorship data بيانات من األطفال وفيات معدل لتقدير مباشر غير أسلوب

الطفل الحياة على البقاء حالة The derivation of a life table based on child mortality

األطفال وفيات معدل إلى 0 استنادا الحياة جدول من االشتقاق

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Brass’ childhood mortality technique estimates probabilities of dying between birth and certain ages based on numbers of children ever born and children surviving by age of mother.

Based on information on children ever born and children surviving, classified by age of their mothers or by marriage duration, proportion of dead children (in relation to those born) are converted into probabilities of surviving from birth to an exact age (1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years).

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique

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Brass noticed that the proportions dead of children ever born, classified by age of mother, were close to the probability of dying between birth and certain ages, and that the differences were primarily a function of the pattern of fertility.

He therefore developed a set of multipliers to convert the proportions dead to the life table xq0 values, the probability of dying between birth and age x…

" وقت" أي من يولدون الذين األطفال من القتلى نسبة أن الحظت براسالوفاة احتمال من قريبة كانت لألم، العمرية الفئة حسب مصنفة مضى،

لنمط األولى الدرجة دالة كانت الفروق وأن معينة، وسن الوالدة بينالنسب. تحويل مضاعفات من مجموعة وضعت لذلك أنه الخصوبة

الجدول للحياة وسن xq0الميت الوالدة بين الوفاة احتمال القيم،العاشرة...


" الحياة " على البقاء حالة براس تقنية الطفل

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…Multipliers to convert the proportions dead to the life table xq0 values, the probability of dying between birth and age x:

الجدول… للحياة الميت النسب تحويل الوفاة xq0مضاعفات احتمال القيم، : وسن والدة العاشر بين

xq0 = ki . Di

Where:

xq0 is the probability of dying between birth and age x;

ki is a multiplier;

Di is the proportion of children dead; and

i is the age group of the mother.

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique " الحياة " على البقاء حالة براس تقنية الطفل

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The ki multipliers vary as a function of the fertility pattern in the population being studied. The multipliers are usually estimated based on ratios of successive average parities, P(i)/P(i+1), where i is the index of the age group (i = 15-19, ... 7 = 45-49).

السكان في الخصوبة لنمط كدالة كي مضاعفات وتختلف . نسب إلى 0 استنادا عادة المضاعفات تقدر دراستها تجري

المتعاقبة متوسط تعادالت ، P(i)/P(i+1) هو ، األول حيثأنا ( = العمرية للفئة )49-45 = 7،... 19-15مؤشر .


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The data for mothers at selected age groups provide the following information:

التالية المعلومات توفر المحددة العمرية الفئات في باألمهات الخاصة :البيانات Index Age of (i) mother Derived values _______________________________ 1 15-19 1q0 probability of dying between birth and age 1 2 20-24 2q0 probability of dying between birth and age 2 3 25-29 3q0 probability of dying between birth and age 3 4 30-34 5q0 probability of dying between birth and age 5 5 35-39 10q0 probability of dying between birth and age 10 6 40-44 15q0 probability of dying between birth and age 15 7 45-49 20q0 probability of dying between birth and age 20


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Brass' original calculations were based on a limited range of fertility and mortality patterns.

Refinements of the Brass method have used correlation coefficients obtained from information derived from a broader range of mortality and fertility patterns.

Trussel's equations were introduced in Manual X (1983), for use with Coale-Demeny model life table mortality.


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The most recent refinement is that by Palloni and Heligman, which requires calculation of mean age at maternity – an indicator of the average age difference between women and their children – and uses the UN's regional model mortality patterns.

Both the Trussel and Paloni-Heligman versions rely on the Coale and Trussel model fertility schedules (1974).

Both the Trussel and Paloni-Heligman estimates are calculated in the United Nations' QFIVE program.


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الذي وهيليغمان، بالوني أن هو آخر صقلالوالدة – عند العمر متوسط حساب يتطلبالنساء بين الفرق العمر لمتوسط مؤشرا

نموذج – الوفيات أنماط ويستخدم والأطفال. المتحدة للأمم إقليمي

بالوني وهيليغمان تروسيل من كل إصداراتالخصوبة جداول وتروسيل كالي على تعتمد

(.1974النموذجي )

وهيليغمان تروسيل من كل تقديرات وتحسبللأمم التابعة قفيفي برنامج في بالوني

المتحدة.


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Data required:

Children ever born classified by 5-year age groups of mother, from a census or survey.

Children surviving up to the time of the same census or survey, again classified by age of mother.

Number of women by 5-year age groups, from the same census or survey.

: المطلوبة البيانات العمرية الفئات حسب مصنفة مضى وقت أي من يولدون الذين 5األطفال

. المسح أو التعداد من األم، من سنوات أخرى مرة نفس المسح، أو التعداد وقت حتى الحياة قيد على الباقين األطفال

. لألم العمرية الفئة حسب مصنفة من العمرية الفئات من النساء من .5عدد المسح أو التعداد نفس من سنوات،

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Assumptions:

The risk of a child dying is a function only of the age of the child.

Information on CEB and CS by age of mother are equally well reported.

Fertility levels and patterns have remained constant for at least 15 to 20 years before the census or survey. (United Nations (1990:23) says 30-35 years.)

The age pattern of mortality is known.

. الطفل: عمر من فقط وظيفة من يموتون الذين األطفال خطر االفتراضاتحسب العمالء وخدمات التنفيذيين، الرؤساء مجلس عن معلومات أيضا وترد

. لمدة ثابتة ظلت وأنماط الخصوبة مستويات لألم العمرية 20إلى 15الفئة) ) . المتحدة األمم المسح أو التعداد قبل األقل 35-30يقول) 1990:23على

. لوفيات). العمري الطراز المعروف ومن سنة

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Assumptions:

There is no relationship between mortality of mothers and mortality of their children; between age of mother and parity; nor between age of mother and child mortality. That is, the risk of a child dying is a function only of the age of the child.

Age of mothers is reported correctly.

وفيات: ومعدل األمهات وفيات معدل بين عالقة توجد ال االفتراضات . والطفل األم وفيات عمر بين وال والتكافؤ؛ األم عمر بين األطفال؛ . لسن ويقال الطفل عمر من فقط وظيفة يموتون الذين األطفال فخطر

صحيح بشكل .أمهات

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Assumptions:Completeness of reporting is the same for children ever born as for children surviving.As the authors mention, the mortality model used has been well identified.

لألطفال: بالنسبة نفسه هو اإلبالغ اكتمال االفتراضاتالباقين باألطفال يتعلق فيما مضى وقت أي من المولودين . الوفيات معدل نموذج الكتاب، يذكر كما الحياة قيد على

جيدا حددت قد .المستخدمة

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Procedure: Though Brass’ original procedure used a set of

multipliers to convert proportions of children dead to life table xq0 values …

… Trussell’s equations are used in the Palloni-Heligman variation (United Nations 1990: chV-VI).

The first step, in using equations based on United Nations models, is the calculation of mean age at maternity, or accepting the default value

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Calculation of Mean Age at Maternity with Mbar.xls

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Estimation of Mean Age at Maternity and Mean Age at ChildbearingUsing DHS Data

Age Midpoint Women ASFRsImplied Births

Births * midpoint

ASFRs * midpoint

15-19 17.5 7,298 62 452.48 7,918.33 1,085.0020-24 22.5 6,352 143 908.34 20,437.56 3,217.5025-29 27.5 6,358 149 947.34 26,051.91 4,097.5030-34 32.5 5,678 108 613.22 19,929.78 3,510.0035-39 37.5 5,325 66 351.45 13,179.38 2,475.0040-44 42.5 4,122 24 98.93 4,204.44 1,020.0045-49 47.5 3,457 6 20.74 985.25 285.00

Total 38,590 558 3,392.50 92,706.64 15,690.00Implied TFR 2.79000

Mean Age Direct OffsetAt Maternity 27.33 26.83

At Childbearing 28.12 27.62Spreadsheet:Mbar.xls


Program:QFIVE

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Technique implemented in QFIVE (United Nations)


Technique implemented in QFIVE (United Nations), as accessed through PASEX interface:

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Spreadsheet:QFIVE.xls


After entering required data and running the QFIVE program (which automatically applies the calculations described above), several sets of child mortality rates will be generated.

الحسابات ( 0 تلقائيا ينطبق الذي قفيفي برنامج وتشغيل المطلوبة البيانات إدخال بعد ( األطفال وفيات معدالت من مجموعات عدة إنشاء سيتم ، أعاله .المذكورة

Each set includes the following measures:

1q0 infant mortality rates( الرضع وفيات (معدالت

4q1 probability of dying between ages 1 and 4


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Each set includes the following measures:: التالية التدابير مجموعة كل وتتضمن

1q0 infant mortality rates



Each measure is generated for several reference dates (that correspond to the age-specific input from which they are derived).

.( اشتقاق ( يتم التي من المدخالت محددة السن تقابل التي مرجعية تواريخ لعدة تدبير كل إنشاء يتم

And all measures (for all reference dates) are available for Coale Demeny and United Nations life table models.

. ( المتحدة ( واألمم كالي ديميني الحياة الجدول لنماذج التواريخ مرجع لكل التدابير جميع وتتوفر

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Zimbabwe:1969 Reported Parity W omen

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970

Y e ar

q(5

)

NORTH

SOUTH

EAST

W EST

LATIN AM

CHILEAN

SO ASIAN

FAR EAST

GENERAL

Under 5 M ortali ty Rate E st im ates

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The analyst then has two tasks:

1. Identify the measures corresponding to the regional model life table that best represents the mortality in the country under study.

2. Within the results falling in the appropriate life table model, identify reference dates associated with most reliable age-specific input data.

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Choice of regional model life table may be based on: The results of a comparison of the consistency

of estimates from another source survey (MORTPAK/COMPAR, COMPAR.xls, DHSQCOM.xls),

Knowledge of the pattern of child mortality for the population in question, or

A desire to be consistent with previous choice.

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Choice of reference date should consider the following: Measures for the most recent reference dates are

based on information reported by females ages 15-19 and 20-24

Measures for reference dates furthest in the past are based on information reported by females ages 40-44 and 45-49

Data for these youngest and oldest reproductive age groups tend to be

affected by quality issues

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Advantages: A small amount of data, often collected in a census

or survey, is required. Mortality trend covering more than 1 years

generated. Estimates based on data on births for several years

may be less affected by sampling error than methods based on data for only one year.

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Limitations: Estimates based on information from women ages

15-19, as well as ages 40 and above, should be interpreted with caution.

Results may be affected by changing fertility pattern.

Poor quality data will produce results of uncertain reliability.

Age misreporting affects the results since the children’s length of exposure to the risk of dying is inferred from their mothers’ ages.

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Brass' Child Survivorship Technique and Development of Life Table

Once infant mortality or under-5 mortality is calculated, MATCH may be used to calculate the rest of the life table.

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Spreadsheet:MATCH.xls or MATCH_BS.xls

Documents

Workshop on Demographic Analysis and Evaluation. Mortality: Estimation from Child Survivorship Data وفيات: تقدير من بيانات حالة البقاء على الحياة