www.guycarp.com

El Mercado de Reaseguros Mundial y su efecto en el Ambito Latinoamericano

Junio 3 2010, Fort Lauderdale

Aidan Pope

GC LAC

2Guy Carpenter

Primer Trimestre de 2010…el “Cisne Negro?”

3Guy Carpenter

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Xynthia Chile EQ Northridge PCS

US

Db

n

3 wks

8 mths

Ultimate17 mths

Estimativa de los Siniestros Recientes…26 Marzo 2010

Source: Company Announcements, AIR, EQECAT, ISO PCS, Guy Carpenter

4Guy Carpenter

Efecto Sobre el Mercado de Reaseguros???

En Chile….

En America Latina…

A Nivel Mundial…

La Tendencia hoy es de Enfocarse mas en la Region Afectada….Por Que?

5Guy Carpenter

Costo de Reaseguro en Propriedades:Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-on-Line Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Guy Carpenter

6Guy Carpenter

Precios de Seguros Comerciales en Estados Unidos…

Note: Timelines superimposed by Guy Carpenter

7Guy Carpenter

La Vista Retroactiva:Cambios 2007 a 2009 en los capitales de reaseguro(GC Global Reinsurance Composite)(USD Billones)

GC Global Reinsurance Composite - Change in Reported Shareholders' Funds

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

US

Dbn

8Guy Carpenter

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Crecimiento en Capitales arriba de la tendencia (Russell 3000 P&C Index)

Soft market

Hard market

“Hard market softening”

Crisis

Recovery

Source: Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data

Excess capital

9Guy Carpenter

‘Lo Desconocido’: Exposicion Neta de Aseguradoras a los PIIGS (% de Capital Libre)

Source: Citigroup

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%F

ortis

Del

ta L

yd

Gen

eral

i

SN

S

Map

fre

AX

A

ING

Alli

anz

Mun

ich

Avi

va

ZF

S

Hel

vetia

Han

n R

e

Bal

oise

RS

A

SLH

AE

GO

N

Sw

iss

Re

Sam

po

VIG

Std

Life

10Guy Carpenter

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

901

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Indice VIX (Volatilidad de los mercados)

Source: Bloomberg

S&L crisis LTCM

“Asian Contagion”Sept. 11

Enron

Capital markets closed

Back to

“normal”?

PIIGS

11Guy Carpenter

Margen en los CDS para Diferentes Entidades….

Source : Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data

Greece

California

Allianz

12Guy Carpenter

Rendimientos en Inversiones “seguros” (Bonos de Gobierno):

5-year yields to maturity, source: Bloomberg data

0

2

4

6

8

10

121

98

51

98

61

98

71

98

81

98

91

99

01

99

11

99

21

99

31

99

41

99

51

99

61

99

71

99

81

99

92

00

02

00

12

00

22

00

32

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

0

US UK Germany Japan

13Guy Carpenter

Ratings S&P de Reaseguradores Globales

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Guy Carpenter

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

AAA AA A BBB Lower

2007 2008 2009

Note: Shows Guy Carpenter’s estimate of the lowering of Berkshire Hathaway’s rating from AAA to AA+ on 4 February 2010

14Guy Carpenter

Capital Reaseguro por Rating S & P:

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

YE07 Current/YE08

AA- A+ A A- Not Rated

Source: Guy Carpenter, Standard & Poor’s

YE 07 Current

15Guy Carpenter

Perspectivas para los Reaseguradores Internacionales

Mejorar los Estados Financieros (Recesion)

Reduccion de los Precios/Primas

Mercado Generico de Rating “A”

Solvencia II (Mayor Requerimiento de Capital)

Menor Rendimiento Financiero

Accionistas que piden mayor Retorno sobre Capital Invertido

Presiones Inflacionarias

Consolidacion….

16Guy Carpenter

Los Cuatro Jinites del Apocolipsis

17Guy Carpenter

Los Cuatro Jinetes

Bajos Rendimientos de las Inversiones

Precios a la Baja

Inflacion

Deterioro de las reservas

18Guy Carpenter

Valuation dispersion could lead to additional M&A

Source: Bloomberg

0.6 x

0.7 x

0.8 x

0.9 x

1.0 x

1.1 x

1.2 x

7 % 8 % 9 % 10 % 11 % 12 % 13 % 14 % 15 % 16 % 17 %

2010E consensus RoE

Pri

ce

to

bo

ok

19Guy Carpenter

Temas para America Latina

….Los Terremotos pueden ocurrir en cualquier epoca…!

Jugadores Tradicionales versus Nuevos Entrantes

Diferenciacion (Reaseguradores y Corredores)

“Compliance” (Reaseguradores y Corredores)

Condiciones de Reaseguro mas restringidas

Nuevos Productos para un Mercado mas Sofisticado

Tamano de Siniestros Individuales

Internacionalizacion del Riesgo (Terrorismo o Cobertura Ambiental)

Capacidad para Seguro/Reaseguro de Caucion

Primeros seguros para la nueva clase adquisitiva

20Guy Carpenter

Que quieren los Reseguradores??

Dominio de la informacion

Mejor Administracion de Riesgos (ERM)

Mayor Transparencia sobre calculo de Reservas

Tasas apropriadas para el riesgo implicito (Efecto Inflacionario)

Mayor Dispercion del Riesgo

Important Disclosure Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC provides this report for general information only. The information and data contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should be understood to be general insurance/reinsurance information only. Guy Carpenter &

Company, LLC makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Please consult your insurance/reinsurance advisors with respect to individual coverage issues.

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