ICCCFS Conference, Beijing, 2011-11-8

Yongyuan Yin, Xu Yinlong, Emanuele Cuccillato, Ellen Kelley, Pan, X.B., Wang, G.Q. and Declan Conway

Adapting to Climate Change and Enhancing Food Security in China

气候变化适应和增强中国粮食安全

ACCC project: interdisciplinary and IA

Project activities and achievements

Science and policy integration

Conclusions

概要

Outline

Introduction: CC and FS

Climate adaptation: linking CC and FS

UNFCCC Secretary, 15 February 2011

“On a global level, increasingly unpredictable weather patterns will lead to falling agricultural production and higher food prices, leading to food insecurity”

The Committee on World Food Security (CFS) requested to “review existing assessments and initiatives on the effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations and the interface between climate change and agricultural productivity, including the challenges and opportunities of adaptation and mitigation policies and actions for food security and nutrition”.

• The concern about China’s food security or the ability to feed itself. While Brown (1995; 2004), on the one hand, warns that the rising dependence on grain imports in China might affect the global food price significantly, others argue that China is capable of producing enough grain it needs in the 21st century (Rosegrant et al., 1995; Song, 1997).

• China is facing with considerable annual fluctuations of food production caused by climate variations and hazards. For example, in 1998 China produced 392 million tons of grain, but saw significant reductions in production in four of the following five years. In 2003, grain production was 326 million tons, a drop of more than 60 million tons in five years.

Importance of Food Security (FS) in China

• Under climate change, periods of drought are likely to become more frequent and severe;

• Water shortage, already a problem in China, may be exacerbated by climate change; and water shortages will further affect food production;

• In addition, decreases in water availability and food production would lead to indirect impacts on human health.

The Necessity of Linking CC and FS

ACCC Project: A Study to Improve FS

• The “Adapting to Climate Change in China” (ACCC) project provides a new way of thinking to link agricultural production with several climate stressors, which influence interactively food security and rural sustainability.

• This presentation focuses on ACCC project activities related to agricultural sector vulnerability and risks to climate variation and change, climate adaptation policies to reduce risks in food security.

• Major climate change adaptation project• China – UK – Swiss collaboration • NDRC main Chinese partner• 3 year project, June 2009-2012-• 48,000,000 RMB total• An integrated and interdisciplinary approach (IA)

which integrates major physical, biological, and socio-economic components of the whole climate change domain (ACCC, 2011)

ACCC Research Framework

2. Climate Science

3. Vulnerability Assessment：•Physical/ Ecological vulnerabilities

• Socio-economic vulnerabilities•Institutional vulnerabilities

5. Adaptation Planning•Identify adaptation option

•Analyze/ Assess adaptation option•Policy prioritization and recommendation

1. Scoping Study(Identify problems)

4. Climate Risk Assessment(Climate scenarios)

(Socio-economic scenarios)

6. Outcome communication & information sharing

Vulnerability & RiskAssessment

Adaptation Planning

Climate Science

Key Principles of ACCC 项目原则

• 合作——汇集中外专家专业知识

• Collaborative project – bringing together Chinese and international expertise

• 将气候变化作为跨领域问题研究

• Climate change as cross-sectoral issue • 提高恢复能力，降低风险

• Reducing climate risks by building resilience• 将适应对策即规划作为重点

• Focus on adaptation options and planning• 关注脆弱群体，如贫困社区、妇女和儿童

• Focus on vulnerable groups e.g. poor communities, women & children• 与其它国家进行知识分享

• Knowledge-sharing with other countries

Study Regions: China and Three Cases

Case：NingXia

Case：Inner Mongolia

Case：Guangdong

Socio-Economic Scenarios

Climate Change Scenarios

Hydrology models

Crop Models CENTRUY Model

SD Goals

Water D Food D HANPP

Water availability

Food Supply NPP

V = f(S，D) Adaptation options inventory

Adaptive capacity assessment

Multi-stakeholder consultation

Adaptation options prioritization rank

Criteria

Flow-chart of the ACCC project CC-FS research methodology

NAS

•CMA and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) cooperated with HC/UK• RegCM4 and PRECIS driven by ECHAM5/MPI_OM and HadCM3 • Results from the CMIP3 ensemble over China provides useful background. This could form the basis of, or guide, the analysis of the GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble •Climate change scenario website building.

CC scenarios - improve development of and access to climate change science in China 促进中国的气候变化情景设计

•国家气象局及中国农科院 (及HC) • 以ECHAM5/MPI_OM和HadCM3 GCM驱动的RegCM4及PRECIS•CMIP3集合中中国地区的结果可提供有益的背景，作为分析CMIP5集合中GCM的基础或指导•气候变化情景网站建设

www.climatechange-data.cn

Change of annual mean temperature in CORDEX-East Asia during the mid-21st century (unit: ℃)

Left: RegCM-ECHAM5 simulation; Right: RegCM-HADCM simulation)

Change of annual mean precipitation in CORDEX-East Asia during the mid-21st century (unit: %)

Left: RegCM-ECHAM5 simulation; Right: RegCM-HADCM simulation)

Agriculture: cropping•Extreme weather events (1961-2000); •Vulnerability analysis – Ningxia case.Grassland and Livestock•CENTURY Model Calibration;•Simulated changes of aboveground productivity in Northern Grassland (2040, 2070, 2100); •Grassland vulnerability assessment;•Initial evaluation of grassland impact.Water Resources•Changes of runoffs in the next 50 years;•Response of groundwater in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain to Climate Change.

Comprehensive risk assessments, based upon vulnerability and CC impacts 气候变化脆弱性及影响的全面风险评估 – 对农、牧、水资源的影响

Changes CDD in China (1961-2000)Annual Runoff change (2021-2050) over the Baseline Period

农业•极端天气 (1961-2000); •脆弱性分析 – 宁夏草原及畜牧•CENTURY模型校准; •北方草原地上生产力变化模拟 (2040, 2070, 2100); •草原脆弱性评估;•草原影响初步评估水资源•未来50年径流变化;•黄淮海平原地下水随气候变化的变化情况

Simulated changes of aboveground productivity (1981-2008)

CASS•Fieldwork in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for vulnerability assessment;•The national socio-economic scenario (SES). NDRCC•Framework of disaster risk assessment in climate change; •Climate disaster loss assessment; and•Climate disaster risk maps.

Socio-economic impacts and risk assessments气候变化社会经济脆弱性及影响风险评估

Typhoon risk distribution (crop and economic loss) Rate of crop area suffered to droughts (1991-2000)

中国社科院•宁夏和内蒙进行实地脆弱性评估;•国家社会经济情景 (SES). 国家减灾中心•建立气候变化灾害风险评估框架；•完成中国1978至2009年及广东省1991至2009年气候灾害损失评估; •绘制中国历史自然灾害地图；及•筹备编制气候灾害风险地图。

• Current and future climate extremes impacts on crops and the economy;• Current economic losses (crop) to climate hazards and disaster prevention;• The impacts of CC on water resources;• Vulnerabilities to rainstorms.

Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: GD气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 广东

Spatial Distribution of Vulnerability to Rainstorm in Guangdong

• 目前及未来极端气候对农业及经济的影响; • 目前气候灾害造成的农作物及经济损失及防灾;• 气候变化对广东水资源的影响；• 广东省对暴雨的脆弱性的研究。

Rate of crop area suffered to typhoon (2001)

• Hydrological and grassland simulation for assessing the impacts of CC;• Household surveys on climate impacts on herdsmen’s livelihood;• Vulnerability assessment of livestock vulnerability to droughts.

Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: IM气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 内蒙

•水文及草原模拟评估气候变化影响;•气候对于牧民生计影响入户调查;•评估畜牧业对于干旱的脆弱性，根据指标采用综合性方法确定当前的畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性。

LegendGreen: low vulnerabilityYellow: medium vulnerabilityBrown: high vulnerability

•Agriculture: future climate change trend and risks to drought; • Water: future impacts of CC scenarios on precipitation in NX;• Relations between CC and desertification.

Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risk assessments: NX气候变化脆弱性、影响风险评估 – 宁夏

Agricultural drought risk

农业：未来气候变化趋势及农业对干旱灾害的风险; 水资源: 未来气候变化情景对宁夏降水的影响;气候变化与沙漠化间的关系

Inventory of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for water sector

AHP multi-criteria evaluation of options by stakeholders using survey

Prioritized ranking of options, indicating overall preference

Identify desirable adaptation options which could be used to reduce water vulnerability to climate change

Relative Importance Scale Adaptation Option 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 Adaptation Option

Price Adjustment X Water Management Price Adjustment X New technologies Price Adjustment X Research & Education

RANKING:

1. Water allocation plans

2. Water use permit

3. Water saving technology

4. Water demand management

Applying AHP in adaptation option prioritization

• The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method has been used to prioritize alternative adaptation measures or options;

• Policy meetings have been held to identify sustainability indicators by water resource managers and farmers; and

• AHP surveys have been arranged with questionnaire to allow stakeholders and experts to evaluate adaptation options in the water sector in three case regions.

List of potential agricultural adaptation options (许吟隆，2010)

List of potential agricultural adaptation options (许吟隆，2010)

Sample AHP comparison table: water system

Adaptation Option Relative Effectiveness Scale Adaptation Option5 4 3 2 1 2 3 4 5

Reform crop structure x water use permit and water trade system

Reform crop structure x Construct water works

Reform crop structure x Establish farm water users’ society or committee

Reform crop structure x Adopt advanced water use technologies

Reform crop structure x Governments set water price

Reform crop structure x Improve water allocation policies

Reform crop structure x Increase water save awareness and education

ACCC Project: facilitates and enables NAS

International responsibility, UNFCCC

NDRC: Design national climate change adaptation strategy

Effective adaptation options identified and available

Sufficient knowledge and informationavailable

Design provincial adaptation plans options

ACCC Project: research, communication, training, stakeholders engagement, sufficient expertise and policy makers

Climate disasters and risks, economic losses

Facilitating factors

Media and NGOs

Driving forces

CAAS and CRCPP have been appointed by NDRC to draft “China’s Climate Change Adaptation Mid-to-Long Term Strategy”

Provincial-level teams contributed to “12th five-year plan”

Adaptation Planning and Policy-National Level适应规划及政策 – 国家层面

• Operating in the context of the development of China’s 12th 5 Year Plan (5YP) • including a chapter on climate change; • including a specific section on adaptation for the first

time;• mandating the development of a National Adaptation

Strategy (NAS).

• ACCC partners and researchers have been asked by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to support the development of the NAS.

• A panel of 8 experts has been established to draft the strategy, of whom 4 are key ACCC experts.

Adaptation Planning and Policy-Provincial Level适应规划及政策 – 省级层面

• Results from ACCC provincial work will also be used to inform adaptation strategy development.

• ACCC partners in three pilot provinces (Guangdong, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia) have made specific policy recommendations to local officials.

• They have also significantly contributed to the development of the provincial 12th 5-Year Plans through consultancy reports focusing specifically on climate change impacts and adaptation.

广东

• 进行广东省流域生态补偿个案研究;

• 完成气候变化对于广东省水资源及适应战略影响的研究报告;

• 完成广东适应气候变化战略及重点行动报告;

内蒙

• 省内专家级政策制定者就脆弱性评估及确定适应对策进行会商;

宁夏

• 生态补偿(PES)报告;

• 开展生态移民项目。

Summary: ACCC success checklist 小结：ACCC成绩检查表

Research 研究• Tested methodologies• Collaboration (Chinese / International)• Integration (physical / social &

provincial / national)• Credibility• Publications• Model improvement

DFID Research

Policy 政策• ACCC influence in 12th 5YP / National

Adaptation Strategy / CC Law• Evidence-based policy – tested &

practiced• Integrated approach reflected in policy• Provincial policy (IM, NX & GD) based

on ACCC work (roadmap)DECC, SDC, NDRC

Capacity-building• Core group of officials & researchers

confident in CCA concepts & policy• Key stakeholders aware of CCA• Progress towards CCA mainstreaming

CCA into planning & investmentsSDC

International Impact• Case studies & experience shared pro-

actively• Enhanced understanding & reputation

of China on CCA• Extensive international publications• Basis established for long-term

partnershipsDFID China, NDRC, DFID Research

Adapting to Climate Change in Chinahttp://www.ccadaptation.org.cn/en/index.aspx

• 对出资方为ACCC项目提供资助和支持表示感谢!• 感谢各级领导、专家学者、NGO及项目组成员的大力支持和努力！•向各位参会成员表示感谢!

• The participation of this conference has been made possible through the financial support of the ACCC project;• I would like to express my grateful acknowledgement to many ACCC researchers for their contributions;• Thank conference organization committee for inviting me to attend the meeting;• The ACCC project is funded by DFID, DECC, and SDC

Acknowledgement