:
!"
#"! !!"
$%71
&& 2006
!'
2
2006 . . .
!" # $ %&' " ( ) * +, ) -* #./ ) #. -* ,0 12 )
.3' 4( 5 ! :
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Publications Department
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: 202-483-7600
Fax: 202-483-1840
www.CarnegieEndowment.org
3& #7* 8 ,0 12 # )pub/org.CarnegieEndowment.www.
%9 % &*: $ ;2 . 0 * 3& ' #' ! *
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
3
:/ .) " * #. ) 3&
#72005N2006 & @ G* 3& I, *>/ )
2005 .2 O2 9 , @ 9 >* #. 2O F* ) 3& I, @*
NO..
4
.!+
.+ &% ................................................................................. 7
.+ 0" :1 +....................................................................... .9
.+ 2!' :2" "+..................................................................... 11
#"* + :! ................................................................... .14
! 34............................................................................... .15
P ="/.......................................................................... .17
0 4 ="/................................................................. .19
3 ! 5!56 :!&7 89 ""+ "................................. 25
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
5
6
7 = " @ 9 #( 3& 5, 4 >> @ #1956 3' # * .
* 12 ; ) ; 17 C 9 : 12 3& 3/ 4:7
Q@ 5A& @* G 5* #
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
7
)* =P 9 @. : !. . ; . ) ) #
40 4" # #& =C . )' #* ) ; P 4@ * P 3' 9 = 9 B #
: 5 %9 !I =* & % 9 * ) ) "9 ; ) #@* Q@ . 97 - 4.
9# 5 57 ; : 3& %: ) #*C ) I 4,0 49I : > :9 ) *
.* EC(* )*7 9 / *( 3& C, #. )* W,7 4( 4@ @ *- %. 1 ;* @*
12
* D& G ; ) 5 ;1 ) 2/ ) 2P !7( 4( )&
)0 4I . 4( )& )-* C *9 I. 9 (' "2 2004 . ) 9 ) T" )15 3' 18 : % #7
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
13
* ! & C)ICN 9 ?7 # ) >* #B9 = #@ O* > 1 K,0 12 3*
% # 9 : .
95 ) ; I. 4,0 )' C:' # ) ( ) ) # I* C 4,0 )
14
#"* + : !
G * 9 ) G ; ,0 E. )& "*/ =A )' .
K,0 # G ; DC
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
15
* ) : 3
* V12 1 3' ) 5-. ) 1 .
4,0 * ) ) 5 > * = , C
16
B .C* K )0 ""@ 4* # ) I& I 9 I1 3' . ;1 )/ I ) @* ) - )& 9 )0 @*0 % 3& 9 A 0 4 4 1'
* ?7/ ="/ > C .
:
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
17
!!" !: 5+
I * 1 ) * ;1 I& *
18
V 9 @9 %C =" #. ( . 3' 4B I I G
4,0 ) " 3' %&* I@C* :7 ) ( . =" D@ 12 @
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
19
* D& *>* ) 3& ; , B7 @B #B I )I C 4 > +*,
)0 I& .
, I* 9@ ="/ ) @ B P ="/ B . I* ="/ V12 "
A 9 ) ) :9 +: ; ? ( 5 * . 1 % I @ 4 C
4( 7 4A9 , I& 4&, #@* @B . &* ="/ R@* 3 )
"/ : 9
) ;1 ) (' = 9 K,0 =" ? 3& I DC
20
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
21
&, 2>-* 5*- ) 4 I 0 4 V12 & 4 4 I
%C KB* I = 9 0 ) , 12 9 1* * 1 V: 1 DI ;1* ) ) ) ) 1'
* ) 9
22
& 91998 5 7 5 : *@. =" P < " @ "
4*, " K,0 " * D@" K,0 " I9, 3' 4B ) @*
8 #C ?7 ' . =" I:. @ 4, 12 3' .( 12 C
"K,0 " 3& ' *- 5: . 9 .
7 ) )' V12 5& 4* 1 . "@ 2 = #: . 12 ) 5,
E. =" #* @ :9 G I* D& . :. 9 * >/ "@ 1I )
@*9 % +*, @. 4*7( 9 2* ) ;
) - ; 5&. 9 . I/ #@ +, 5 9 ,@ R@* 4&.
9, . )A2 4> I ;1
24
K,0 9 V, .B % Q2 ) C !( 3& @ =" )'
* QI 12 #, 3' D@ ( )
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
25
2I :7* 4 )' #" ) ) V ( 12 9 I:B ="/ . %C , )
/ 2"I % ' 3' 7 :B 3& .2 9 1
3' 9@ 5 9 5&
26
4(&( R@* ) @ #" ( * C ) . D@ #@ 3' & ' 4 ;I9 4>
9 !B* 9 41 *20 #&/ 9 > #.*16 2003 / V12 47
I7 ; )& %C # ( , * ? 11 *. 2001 ): G 9
)/ . 4* * ) 5@B ) @
2( & V 9 =, 4
* ) & ;2 " = * # = 9 B*
I D> V 9 =, 4
* ) & ;2 > = V * FI #* ,C( 4C@ 3& G/* " I (' .
1 * % 4C& / % 4( %9 1 / +, * I
=20* :* BC 9 % 4( = )@ )U 3' %* = . 4
) : #. 12 I* #e : 3' ( I/ !, D W7 9 V1 I
(9 DC 3& I:B % 4(* 9 =* > 4 ?7 %*@* :
" : 4,0* # ) G . " ) Q* T %' )X9
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
27
*" *@ 1 @ =" % 4C& / % 4( 4C (@ &.
I. #7 I =@ : #.* ="/ * G9 ;1 3' 2 =" ) e
4*7 =& 9 52 * C 2007 . " @ =" 3* #2 #A #! C
' C' # ) : *@ )* ) ? # 12 J = 9
5: 4 @ =" !*' 3& C , ) )@ I (' )/ . 4( 12
#* 0 4 B 4 I @
)* ) =" % IC& #7 ) %
B / % 9 ) , 4C& @ =" )X9 ;1*
28
="/ %& 2 = 97 4,X* * . >* ) ) ;1* I
: ) g" ="/ + R G ) *" 4* V* 1 IC& 3& .
9 ="/ = 9 : & / F* DI ( 4 3' 2@ #* =
. 42" 4 ) I *. 4- B .& G7 ? 3@9
/ 4 ) 5 1 & #B* ;1 ) 5I. 1 K( :9 G
*/ .
4 3* # 9 2 #@* 4C 4 2 % )0
II #B* I,,7 . 9 =, 4 V12 27 D2/ ) =* 12 9 1 =
1 , %' V . W,7 5 3& A 4 4*@ G g
! 4* !* )X* +*, : )C I:B ;1 4 #* #@ :9
3& #, ) 4&: 4@ V12 )
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
29
;
1 < 4 )' " B@ #@ %'"
30
)& 8!6!'
( h,7 i 2 F # )* )@ ""@ 3' 3@ +* 3i7
3& #& %i 4( " . & 4h- 1910 3' 3@
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
31
* ' 4>- * I @ *& P #.* . I& ( %2 4 )' @ )
* . 3' DI %@ / 4(.( @ % / )* 3& F* "
@ # I9 ) .
# 4@ ) "F* ) % : C 3& E:( ) < :
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/programs/arabic/about.htm
32
2006
.@ 2 : K( )E ."(
. *@ @ 9 :C h@ 0 4 )) .E )* . " .(
. , K,0 ) .)(
.)* : h.* h %&)D .P(
.)* :*@ : ' :C 3' "- ) )T ..(
2005
. !,C0 :7 : , 9 0 .)= .(
. J=* )& 89 h./ )* 4" & 1)= .;9(
.@ @ 9 ) % . 3& / %& J * C h. *) .D(
. : K,0 )) .)*(
.:/ . 9 K,0 : Jh2 K,' 5i D@ D) .(
.) % )& BC 4@ : I 3& 4&B) .)*(
2004
. /N,C( :,0 )* :* #. :/ . 9 K,0 ,C( K
9)' .)*(
.*@ @ 9 K,0 : J T2) .)>2(
. :/ . 9 / 9 :C F F) .)(
.*@ @ 9 )0 ::C # ,C) j .9(
. *@ @ 9 *7 & :C) .(
. :/ . K,' 3' G* * @) ."(
.: . :C : J= 2 2/ #2) .)>2(
. ,C( %, 4.) .G
= :J: #( 3' I K,0 )
33
2003
. :/ . 9 :C F 7 J h #2)4 .">(
.:C #* h : *@ K,0 I9) .j**(
.. 9 :C F:/ : / hC, .) .(