0
LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: CERTEZA E INCERTIDUMBRE
Richard Lewis - Noviembre 2017
XIV SIMPOSIO DE LA INDUSTRIA DE LA
CELULOSA Y EL PAPEL
11
MARKET PULP ‒ The market pulp industry
Global – industrial operations in over 25 different countries
Fragmented – biggest producer has less than 10% of the market
Capital intensive – investment of over US$ 3 for every US$1 sales
Economies of scale – Optimal size is now 1 million tonnes/y NBSKP
[Äänekoski] and almost 2 million tonnes/y BEKP [Três Lagoas]
Wood supply – crucial to competitiveness (makes up around 50% of
average operating costs fob mill)
22
MARKET PULP ‒ The Market
International – over 80% of market pulp is exported from country of
manufacture – 51% across oceans
Diverse – A wide variety of qualities with different properties and
applications
Competitive – market driven, nobody has any control over price!
33
INTEGRATED & MARKET PULP demand
El grado de integración varía según tipo de papel, tipo de celulosa
y también según mercado geográfico….
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
P&W Wfree
P&W Wcont
Tissue
Fluff
Spec
Pack
TOTAL
(million tonnes)
Integrated
Market2016
Global Integrated & market wood pulp consumption
(million tonnes of fibres)
By Paper segment TOTAL Integrated Market mkt./Total
P&W Wfree 43,7 28,0 15,7 36%
P&W Wcont 20,4 17,6 2,8 14%
Tissue 27,4 7,1 20,3 74%
Fluff 5,4 0,0 5,4 100%
Spec 10,1 0,2 9,9 98%
Pack 65,2 57,5 7,7 12%
172,2 110,3 61,9 36%
By wood pulp grade TOTAL Integrated Market mkt./Total
Mechanical/CTMP/BCTMP 29,1 25,1 4,0 14%
Chemical 143,1 85,2 57,9 40%
*Excludes 6.3 million tonnes mostly integrated non-wood paper grade pulps
Dissolving Wood Pulp 6,1 1,6 4,5 74%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
High Yield
Chemical
Dis.W. Pulp
(million tonnes)
Integrated
Market
El principal uso final es la
producción de papel….
44
INTEGRATED & MARKET PULP demand
SOURCE: RISI
El grado de integración a la producción de
papel varía según mercado geográfico….
total market % Integra
Total Paper Grade 53.253 7.262 86%
Bl. Softwood Kraft 9.358 3.724 60%
Bl. Hardwood Kraft 12.686 3.094 76%
Sulfite 415 7 98%
Unbl. Kraft 20.149 349 98%
Semichemical 3.395 0 100%
Mechanical 7.250 88 99%
N. AmericaNordic
China
E.Europe
W. Europe
Japan
O. F. East
M. East
L. America
Af/Oce
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000
Gra
do
de
Inte
grac
ión
Tamaño del Mercado (miles de toneladas)
total market % Integra
Total Paper Grade 29.888 20.766 31%
Bl. Softwood Kraft 8.275 8.079 2%
Bl. Hardwood Kraft 14.364 9.577 33%
Sulfite 26 26
Unbl. Kraft 1.229 779 37%
Semichemical 0 0
Mechanical 5.994 2.305 62%
55
EXPANDED GLOBAL FIBRE MARKET 2016
Old News/Magazines
CITYRecovered Paper
SOURCE: Team analysis, Hawkins Wright
Premium Pulp Subs.
Old Corrug. Cont.
Mixed (unsorted)
FORESTFresh Wood Fibres
High Yield Wood pulp
Chemical Wood pulp
FARMFresh non-wood Fibres
Non-wood pulp
INTEGRATED (25.1 million tonnes) MARKET (4.0 mill. Tonnes)
INTEGRATED (85.2 million tonnes)
MARKET Paper grade(52.5 million tonnes)
Flu
ff (
5.4
mill
ion
to
nn
es)
(26.7 million tonnes - net)
(98.4 million tonnes - net)
(22.7 million tonnes - net)
(13.7 million tonnes - net)
Dissolving wood pulp 6.1 million tonnes
Paper grade (6.3 million tonnes)-DP (0.7 million tonnes)
350 million tonnes of fibres
Fibre: 161.5 million tonnesGross: 217,6 million tonnes
Fibre: 172.2 million tonnes
66
Market pulp demand ‒ by region 2016
America25%
Europa44%
China6%
Japón9%
Otros Asia14%
Africa+Oceania2%
America18%
Europa30%
China34%
Japón3%
Otros Asia13%
Africa+Oceania2%
2000 – 41,5 millones de toneladas
2016 – 62,2 millones de toneladas
→ Europa deja de ser el mercado regional más importante, siendo desplazado por China.
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
77
REGIONES CON EXCEDENTE/DEFICIT market pulp
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
BSKP
BHKP
FLUFF
UKP
DP
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
BSKP
BHKP
FLUFF
UKP
DP
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
BSKP
BHKP
FLUFF
UKP
DP
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000 22.000
BSKP
BHKP
FLUFF
UKP
DP
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
BSKP
BHKP
FLUFF
UKP
DP
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
BSKP
BHKP
FLUFF
UKP
DP
• DP• UKP• Fluff• BHKP• BSKP
88
1,7%
3,5%
2,3%
2,3%
1,4%
0,3%
1,7%
1,9%
‒0,3%
‒0,4%
-2.000 -1.500 -1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000
WORLD
China
Otros Asia
Europa E.
L. América
N. America
Africa
Oceania
Japón
Europa W.
(miles de toneladas)
DEMANDA POR REGIÓN ‒ proyección @ 2021
Crecimiento de la demanda Global: 5,4 millones de toneladas (1,7% p.a.)
→ China seguirá liderando el crecimiento: +4 millones de toneladas.
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
99
∆ DEMANDA POR TIPO ‒ proyección @ 2021
→ La celulosa en base a Eucalipto seguirá liderando el crecimiento: +3,1 millones de toneladas.
-1.000
-500
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
BK
P-n
ort
he
rn
BK
P-o
ther
BK
P-s
ou
the
rn
Bir
ch
BEK
P
Asi
an H
W
NM
HW
SMH
W
Sulp
hit
e
UK
P
Me
chan
ical
/CTM
P
(mile
s d
e t
on
ela
das
)
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
1010
∆ OFERTA DE CELULOSA ‒ por región 2000-2016
→ Latinoamérica es el principal domicilio de la capacidad instalada, habiendo desplazado a N. América.
0.34
1.08
19.18
1.16
4.84
3.95
1.87
8.49
3.66
23.59
68.13
-2.000 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000 22.000 24.000 26.000 28.000
Africa
Oceania
N America
Japan
W Europe
Other Asia
China
Nordic
E Europe
L America
WORLD
(miles de toneladas)
Millones de toneladas
Rest12% E Europe
5%Other Asia
6%
W Europe7%
Nordic12%
N America28%
L America35%
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
Participación en la Oferta total por región 2016 (%) →
1111
TRADE: Celulosa market pulp Fibra Corta
→ Latinoamérica es LA región excedentaria
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000 18.000 20.000
CHINA
W EUROPE
N. AMERICA
JAPAN
OTH ASIA
E EUROPE
SCANDINAVIA
OCE/AF
LATIN AMERICA
(thousand tonnes)
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
1212
TRADE: Celulosa market pulp Fibra Larga
→ Norte América, Escandinavia y en menor medida LatinAmérica son las regiones excedentarias
-10.000 -8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 - 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 16.000
CHINA
W EUROPE
OTH ASIA
JAPAN
OCE/AF
E EUROPE
LATIN AMERICA
SCANDINAVIA
N. AMERICA
(thousand tonnes)
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
1313
∆ OFERTA POR REGIÓN ‒ proyección @ 2021
→ Latinoamérica incrementará aún más su liderazgo
0.08
0.09
1.26
‒0.27
1.93
0.80
2.38
6.26
-1.000 -500 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500 7.000
Africa
Oceania
N America
Japan
W Europe
Other Asia
China
Nordic
E Europe
L America
WORLD
(miles de toneladas)
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
1414
Fragmented supply in both segments results in strong competition
SOURCE: Team analysis, Hawkins Wright
2,1
Arauco
APP
1,7
3,0
1,6
1,3
Eldorado
UPM 1,7
CMPC2
Suzano
APRIL 3,1
3,4
5,7Fibria
1,3
others
Cenibra
Stora Enso
9,3
BHKP market pulp by major player
Million tonnes/year
BSKP market pulp by major player1
Million tonnes/year
9,0
1,1Resolute Forest Products
Ilim
Others
Mercer
Domtar 1,6
1,5
1,8
1,4
APP/Paper Excellence/IGI
Arauco 1,8
1,5
Sodra
International Paper
Metsa Group
Georgia Pacific
3,2
1,9
2,4
No player has more than 17% of the
production for each grade; only
Arauco & APP are top ten players in
both grades
16,6% 11,9%
10,0% 8,9%
9,1% 7,0%
8,7% 6,5%
6,0% 6,5%
5,1% 6,0%
5,0% 5,6%
4,6% 5,4%
3,9% 5,3%
3,7% 4,1%
27,2% 33%
x% Percentage of total capacity
1 Includes fluff pulp
2 Total Capacity is 3.3MM ton
2017
1515
New BHKP capacity additions at the low end of the supply curve
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
HARDWOOD COST CURVE
(US$/Ton c.i.f. China Port)
SOFTWOOD COST CURVE
(US$/Ton c.i.f. China Port)
500
600
300
2000 35000300005000 10000
400
2000015000 25000
(M metric tonnes)
600
500
400
300002000015000 250001000050000200
300
35000
(M metric tonnes)
20212016
1616SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
CONFIRMED
Status Startup target
Capacity change
000 tonnes/yearLocation
2017-19
Quang Ngai, VietnamVitracimex
n/a 2000Tres Lagoas, BrazilEldorado
2018 100Äänekoski, FinlandMetsä Fibre
4,120Total
n/a 1450Punta Pereira, UruguayMdP
n/a 750Sao Paulo, BrazilLwarcel
n/a 600Vologda, RussiaSveza
n/a 1500Mozambique
4,300Total
2020 250Three mills, RussiaIlim
2017? 400
Navia, PontevedraENCE
n/a 1300HorconesArauco
Company
Uruguay n/aUPM na
2017/19 700Äänekoski, FinlandMetsä Fibre
70
POCOS proyectos nuevos confirmados 2018 →Total
change
BLEACHED HARDWOOD KRAFT PULP 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21
Eucalyptus
Iberia ENCE, Altri +35 +30 +20 - - +85
Suzano Sao Paulo, Maranhao, Mucuri -20 -40 +320 - - +260
Klabin Puma +440 +20 - - - +460
CMPC Guaiba Guaiba +55 - - - - +55
Fibria Tres Lagoas Horizonte 2 +380 +1.375 +195 - - +1.950
Eldorado Tres Lagoas II - - - - - -
Chile AraucoValdivia - - -60 -60 - -120
Other BHKP
China Asia Symbol (Rizhao) -170 -100 - - - -270
Indonesia APP OKI, Kerinci, Toba +450 +700 +100 +100 - +1.350
East Europe Ilim -65 +100 - - - +35
West Europe Nordic birch & Paper Excellence (France) +30 +130 - - - +160
North America Sappi, Resolute & others -5 -50 -50 - - -105
Total BHKP +1.125 +2.165 +525 +40 - +3.855
Major changes by mill
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017-21
NBSK
Nordic Varo, Aanekoski, Ostrand, Skutskar +410 +890 +395 +50 - +1.745
Other Svetlogorsk, Ilim - +450 +225 +25 - +700
Other softwood/SBSK/fluff
USA Ashdown, Riegelwood, Jesup & others +300 -45 -10 -30 -30 +185
Latin America Arauco-Valdivia, Klabin Puma (2017) +175 - -150 -200 -50 -225
Other China (Asia Symbol, Hunan Tiger) +135 -85 -75 - - -25
Total BSKP +1.020 +1.210 +385 -155 -80 +2.380
BLEACHED SOFTWOOD KRAFT PULP
1717
Main use Sub uses and furnish
5%
12%
22%
0
3%
1%
3%
5%
25%
2%4%
P&W Woodfree
paper
60%
25%
Cartonboard
4%
0%
46%
14%
5%
Fresh Fibre
Containerboard16%
30%Other
(inc. specialties)
79%
39%
94%Recicled
containerboard
20%
18% 50%
38%P&W Mechanical
paper
4%
Dissolving pulp
Fluff pulp 100%
Tissue 12% 62%
Non-woodMineralsHardwoodSoftwood Recycled
Market pulp consumed million tonnes
Paper and
Paper
board
Other
16
20
3
6
1
1
10
5
5
Total market
pulp demand1
~67MM ton
SOURCES: Brian McClay mill database, 2015 (formerly NLK mill database) Hawkins Wright
1 Includes High Yield (mechanical)
1%
0%
1%0%
33% 10%57%
FIBRE FURNISH: Detalle composición fibrosa
1818SOURCE: Team analysis, Hawkins Wright
1 China´s restrictions to RP may affect the virgin fiber demand
DEMAND Fibre
Current size
and growth
▪ Current market pulp “paper grade” market size is 62M tonnes,
out of which:
● ~50% HARDWOOD (BEKP 34%) ● UKP ~3%
● ~41% SOFTWOOD ● H.Yield ~6%
By 2030, the market is expected to grow ~ 25%, up to 77 M ton1
Technological
change
▪ P&W papers: in the past the main consuming segment is
losing in developed countries, but still growing in developing.
Geography Growth
▪ Demand from developed countries will slightly contract to
2030 ~ (‒7% / ‒2 million tonnes), while demand from RoW will
increase sharply ~+48% / +17 million tonnes. CHINA +11.6M
Uses
Importance
and growth
▪ Containerboard: Largest segment, growing the fastest, but with
very small market pulp use
▪ Tissue, Specialties & Folding Boxboard, now large consumers
Transversal
trends Other
▪ Innovations & Non traditional cellulose fibres uses: Micro and
Nano Cellulose, Dissolving pulp (-exit barriers), Fluff.
▪ BEKP substituting BSKP
▪ BHKP cost curve is flatter that that of BSKP and is becoming
flatter as new capacity is added at the lowest cost quartile.
▪ There is a price point from when both BHKP & BSKP fresh
fibres become substitutes for recycled Paper.
Costs and
performance StructureSUPPLY
3
2
1
4
5
6
Demand/Supply: market pulp paper grade trends
19
African countries
INDIA
Honduras IndonesiaPeru
PanamaBahamas
VietnamEl Salvador
GuatemalaRussiaS. Africa Barbados/Brazil
UruguayEcuador
ArgentinaMexico
ThailandTurkey
CHILECHINA Greece
C.RicaLatvia Slovak
Hungary
Malaysia
Lithuania
CroatiaPotugal
Spain
FranceEstonia
Israel
U.K.
PolandAustraliaCzech Rep
SwedenCanada
ItalyTaiwan
Denmark
N Zealand/S Korea Netherlands
Finland/Japan USASlovenia
Austria
Germany
Belgium
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Pap
er&
Pap
erb
oar
d a
pp
co
nsu
mti
on
p/c
(k/
hab
.)
GNI p/c at PPP (thousand US$/person)
Source: RISI – Annual Review of Global Pulp&Paper Statistics 2015GNI p/c at PPP: WORLD BANK
Paper & Paperboard Consumption v. GNI After a GNI p/c threshold, Paper & Paper board p/c consumption remains flat/even decreases
China
1995
(1.8-21.7)
China
2015
(14.3-77)
India (6-10.5)
20
Paper & Paperboard Consumption forecast
Source: Own elaboration based on RISI 15-year Forecast (2016-2031) and RISI Database
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.0001
99
2
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
(th
ou
san
d t
on
ne
s)
WORLD: P&PB app. consumption by grade
Newsprint Printing & Writing Containerboard Tissue Other Paper and Board
forecast
1992-2007 2008-2016 2017-2031
Paper and Board 3,1% 0,5% 1,8%Newsprint 1,2% -5,4% -3,8%
Printing & Writing 3,3% -1,8% -1,0%
Containerboard 4,3% 2,4% 2,9%
Tissue 3,9% 3,3% 3,5%
Other Paper and Board 2,1% 1,6% 2,4%
average annual growth rates (%)
historicalWORLD↑ Papeles para cajas
↑ Cartulinas y especialidades
↑ Papeles Tissue
21
Paper & Paperboard Consumption forecast
Source: Own elaboration based on RISI 15-year Forecast (2016-2031) and RISI Database
(2016)
Newsprint
Printing&Writing
ContainerboardTissue Boxboard,
SpecialtiesOther
-5,0%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
0 2 4 6 8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
10
0
fore
cast
ed
rat
e o
f gr
ow
th t
o 2
03
1 (
% p
.a.)
Acc % of 2016 global consumption →
Global P&PB Consumption Growth Forecast by Grade to 2031
22
En contraste: Perspectivas del Consumo de P&PBoard por tipo en Latinoamérica…
Source: Own elaboration based on RISI 15-year Forecast (2016-2031) and RISI Database
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
(th
ou
san
d t
on
ne
s)
L. AMERICA: P&PB app. consumption by grade
Newsprint Printing & Writing Containerboard Tissue Other Paper and Board
↑ All grades up !!
↑ Papeles para cajas
↓ Exc. Newsprint !
23
Paper & Paperboard Production forecast
Source: Own elaboration based on RISI 15-year Forecast (2016-2031) and RISI Database
-
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
1995 2005 2015 2030
tho
usa
nd
me
tric
to
nn
es
Paper&Paperboard Production to 2030 by region
afr/oce
latam
e europe
o f east
m east
china
jap
nordic
w europe
n. america
LA NUEVA PRODUCCIÓN DE PAPEL Y CARTÓN SE LOCALIZARÁ EN REGIONES DEFICITARIAS DE CELULOSA
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
24Source: Hawkins Wright Outlook for Market Pulp August 2017
Market pulp demand forecast by grade
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
e
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
(th
ou
san
d t
on
ne
s)
WORLD: market pulp demand by grade
Total BKP-SW BEKP Other BKP-HW Sulphite UKP Mechanical/CTMP
forecast HW
1992-2007 2008-2016 2017-2021
Market pulp Demand 3,6% 1,9% 1,7%
Total BKP-SW 3,2% 1,4% 1,1%
BEKP 7,2% 6,7% 2,8%
Other BKP-HW 3,0% -1,2% 2,1%
Sulphite -2,4% -19,5% -14,4%
UKP 2,5% -2,3% 0,6%
Mechanical/CTMP 3,9% 1,2% -0,6%
average annual growth rates (%)
historical ↑ Fibra Larga
↑ Eucalipto
→ Otros Fibra Corta
2525
2427 30
67
7
54
4315
1617
1854
5
5
56
7
8
21
5
4
4
44
62
2
Fluff
2030
UKP
266
78
2
2016
BAKP
+1.7% p.a.
BEKP
Other BHKP
NBSK
Other BSKP
BCTMP
3
25
71
20
3
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright; team analysis
MM=million tonnesBHKP BSKPFluff High YieldUKP
MARKET SHARE2016
MARKET SHARE2030F
3% 4%
7% 5%
8% 10%
32% 29%
50% 52%
BHKP demand grow ~10MM ton, BSKP ~5 MM ton (50% of which is fluff growth)
2
2626
China P&P1industry growing rapidly, limited domestic wood supply will
cause an increase on recovered paper and imported pulp…
SOURCE: Hawkins Wright
China fiber demand for P&P1
Million tonnes
1 Excluding non-fiber paper content (coaters and fillers), before fiber losses in processing
Constraints
1
Avg.
growth
‘10-’20 (%p.a.)
Domestic
recovered
paper
Non-wood
Imported
recovered
paper
Imported
wood pulp
Domestic
wood pulp
~9
~7
~10
Forecast
▪ None - readily available at competitive cost
▪ Has been cost-competitive raw material,
but global supply tightening as key export
regions reach recovery limits
▪ Seasonal, with quality and pollution issues
▪ Recycling rates slowly increasing but
quality issues remain, increasing the
minimum level of fresh wood fibre needed,
(reinforcement) varying by grade.
▪ Recovery approaching limits in some
grades: e.g. corrugated boxes, where the
best quality and a large share of production
is exported as packaging materials for
household appliances, electronics…..
1%
-15%
6%
5%
10%
▪ Limited supply of domestic wood fibre e.g.
from pulpwood plantations. Most pulp mills
rely on imported wood chips
7
2128
3237
8
7
32
2
17
25
2927
26
3
7
910
11
7
11
17
22
28
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
42
70
8693
103
Imported wood pulp @ Sept. 2017 = 17.6 million tonnes [23.5??]
2727
…but restrictions on imports of RCP1, may further increase the demand
for virgin fiber
35
10
30
5
20
25
15
0
14120604 1008 11 151303 16090705
150
300
250
200
100
50
020171411082005
Chinese RCP1 imports; ,million tonnes
Chinese OCC2 prices; US$/tonne
Green Fence enacted
2
▪ Pollution and environmental
concerns prompted the Chinese
government to intensify regulation
on imported waste
– Feb. 2013: ‘Green Fence’
policy; increased inspection on
imported raw materials, incl.
mixed papers
– Feb. 2017: ‘National Sword’
campaign stepped up
inspections of RCP cargoes
at ports – max of 1.5%
prohibitive content (vs. 3-6%
usually) further proposed 0.3%
– July 2017: ban on 24
categories of trash imports, incl.
unsorted RCP, by year end– August 2017 → Environmental
inspections/closures Old China.
▪ Chinese recycled paper and board
producers likely to face lower RCP
availability and higher costs 1 Recovered paper; 2 Old Corrugated Container
SOURCE: RISI; McKinsey analysis
28.5 million
tonnes
2828
China will reach 42% of the total market pulp demand by 2030
SOURCE: Hawkings Wright; team analysis
million tonnes
3
MARKET SHARE IN 2016
FORECAST MARKET SHARE IN 2030
CAGR2016-2030
Asia / Africa
North America
Latin America
East Europe
Japan
China
Europe
12% 10% -0.3%
21 2428
33
10
11
115
16
16
15
15
8
8
8
7
9
4
6
3
4
2
2
2025 2030
78
72
~3
2~3
~3
2016
66
2
62
2020
26% 19% -0.8%
4% 3% 0.3%
4% 3% 3.3%
6% 5% 3.3%
15% 7% 1.6%
34% 3.2%
1.7%Total
42%
2929
MAIN TAKE-AWAYS…① LA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA market pulp HA DEBIDO
ENFRENTAR EL IMPACTO ADVERSO DEL CAMBIO TECNOLÓGICO
(medios electrónicos): En los países desarrollados, la demanda por
celulosa ha disminuido como resultado de una menor demanda de
papeles P&W y para Publicaciones.
② OTROS SEGMENTOS DE LAS INDUSTRIAS CONSUMIDORAS DE
market pulp en los países desarrollados han contribuido a
amortiguar este efecto: Cartulinas para envases, papeles Tissue
premium (100% market pulp), una amplia gama de
especialidades…
③ EN LOS PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO, EL IMPACTO DEL CAMBIO
TECNOLÓGICO HA SIDO ALGO MENOR.
④ PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO QUE HAN SIDO EXITOSOS AL SACAR
DE LA EXTREMA POBREZA un significativo porcentaje de su
población, les han dado acceso a un mayor (y de mejor calidad)
consumo de papeles y cartones.
3030
MAIN TAKE-AWAYS…
⑤ EN GENERAL, ESTOS PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO NO
DISPONEN DE RECURSOS FORESTALES PARA SUSTENTAR
SU PROPIA INDUSTRIA DE CELULOSA: Deben salir al mercado
como nuevos consumidores de celulosa MARKET PULP.
⑥ ESTÁNDARES AMBIENTALES MÁS EXIGENTES SOBRE LA
INDUSTRIA PAPELERA DE PAÍSES EN DESARROLLO incentiva
un mayor consumo de celulosa MARKET PULP: se reduce la
oferta local de celulosas non-wood y se aplican restricciones
(mayores costos) al procesamiento de papel recuperado.
⑦ DE-INTEGRACIÓN: (i) La competencia global lleva a las
compañías papeleras a instalar sus Plantas de celulosa cerca
de los bosques y sus máquinas papeleras cerca de los
mercados. (ii) Compañías integradas [N. América] en algún
momento deberán hacer frente al término de la vida útil de sus
Plantas de celulosa. La solución al dilema: reconstruir o de-
integrarse debería favorecer un mayor consumo de market
pulp.
3131
MAIN TAKE-AWAYS…
⑧ LA INDUSTRIA LOCALIZADA EN PAISES DESARROLLADOS
ENFRENTA CRECIENTES PRESIONES CONSERVACIONISTAS
QUE LIMITARÁN O HARÁN MÁS HONEROSA LA PRINCIPAL
MATERIA PRIMA DE ESTA INDUSTRIA.
⑨ QUEDAN MUY POCAS LOCALIZACIONES COMPETITIVAS PARA
EL DESARROLLO DE PLANTACIONES. LAS EXIGENCIAS DE
CERTIFICACION DE MANEJOS FORESTALES Y COC
SUSTENTABLES SE HACEN UNIVERSALES.
⑩ DESARROLLO DE MICRO FIBRILAS PERMITE REDUCIR EL
CONSUMO DE FIBRA LARGA DE REFUERZO. NUEVAS
APLICACIONES DE LAS FIBRAS DE CELULOSA: Dissolving
pulp, orientado a SUSTITUIR FIBRAS TEXTILES; LAS MUCHAS
APLICACIONES POTENCIALES DE LAS NANOFIBRAS, ETC..