Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Economic Climate and Employment OutlookThrough 2018
Alexandra HallDirector, Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Today’s Presentation• What is Labor Market Information?
• Colorado’s Current Economy
• Colorado’s Future Economy
• Growing/Declining Industries
• Top Jobs
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
• Economic activity peaked December 2007
• Since then, almost 7 million jobs lost nationwide
• Perspective – About 1 in 3 temporary help,1 in 5 construction and 1 in 7 manufacturing jobs have been lost in the U.S.
• Job losses have slowed substantially
Current Economy:Nation
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Gross domestic product
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Personal Consumption Expenditures
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Gross Private Domestic Investment
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Personal Consumption Expenditures as a Share of U.S. GDP
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
72.0%
197
0-I
197
1-I
197
2-I
197
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197
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197
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197
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197
7-I
197
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197
9-I
198
0-I
198
1-I
198
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198
3-I
198
4-I
198
5-I
198
6-I
198
7-I
198
8-I
198
9-I
199
0-I
199
1-I
199
2-I
199
3-I
199
4-I
199
5-I
199
6-I
199
7-I
199
8-I
199
9-I
200
0-I
200
1-I
200
2-I
200
3-I
200
4-I
200
5-I
200
6-I
200
7-I
200
8-I
200
9-I
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Net Exports of Goods & ServicesBillions of Dollars
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
197
0-I
197
0-IV
1
971-
III
197
2-II
197
3-I
197
3-IV
1
974-
III
197
5-II
197
6-I
197
6-IV
1
977-
III
197
8-II
197
9-I
197
9-IV
1
980-
III
198
1-II
198
2-I
198
2-IV
1
983-
III
198
4-II
198
5-I
198
5-IV
1
986-
III
198
7-II
198
8-I
198
8-IV
1
989-
III
199
0-II
199
1-I
199
1-IV
1
992-
III
199
3-II
199
4-I
199
4-IV
1
995-
III
199
6-II
199
7-I
199
7-IV
1
998-
III
199
9-II
200
0-I
200
0-IV
2
001-
III
200
2-II
200
3-I
200
3-IV
2
004-
III
200
5-II
200
6-I
200
6-IV
2
007-
III
200
8-II
200
9-I
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Government Expenditures
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Government Spending as a Share of GDP
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
U.S. Retail Sales, TotalOver the Year Percent Change
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Debt
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Federal Funds Rate
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
U.S. EmploymentOver the Month Percent Change
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Jan-
70
Jan-
71
Jan-
72
Jan-
73
Jan-
74
Jan-
75
Jan-
76
Jan-
77
Jan-
78
Jan-
79
Jan-
80
Jan-
81
Jan-
82
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
U.S. Employment
124,000,000
126,000,000
128,000,000
130,000,000
132,000,000
134,000,000
136,000,000
138,000,000
140,000,000
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Employment Change
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Current Economy: Colorado
• Employment peaked 9 months later in August 2008
• Lost over 110,000 jobs through August 2009
• Unemployment rate may have peaked at 7.8% in July 2009, down to 7.3% in August
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Colorado Employment
2,125,000
2,175,000
2,225,000
2,275,000
2,325,000
2,375,000
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Colorado 4 Quarter Moving Average Establishment Openings & ClosingsOriginal Data Not Seasonally Adjusted
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
2001
:Q1
2001
:Q2
2001
:Q3
2001
:Q4
2002
:Q1
2002
:Q2
2002
:Q3
2002
:Q4
2003
:Q1
2003
:Q2
2003
:Q3
2003
:Q4
2004
:Q1
2004
:Q2
2004
:Q3
2004
:Q4
2005
:Q1
2005
:Q2
2005
:Q3
2005
:Q4
2006
:Q1
2006
:Q2
2006
:Q3
2006
:Q4
2007
:Q1
2007
:Q2
2007
:Q3
2007
:Q4
2008
:Q1
2008
:Q2
2008
:Q3
2008
:Q4
Establishment Openings Establishment Closings
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Colorado: Gross Job Gains & Losses 4 Qtr Moving Average
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
Gross Job Gains Gross Job Losses
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Colorado Employment Changes
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Current Economy:On the Bright Side, Modest Improvement
• Consumer confidence may have turned the corner
• Job losses have slowed substantially
• Stimulus dollars are flowing
• According to many experts, Colorado is poised to lead the nation out of recession
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Looking Forward:Colorado Employment Through 2018
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Looking Forward:Regional Perspective
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Looking Forward:Colorado’s Top Occupations
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
Contact Us
Alexandra HallLabor Market InformationColorado Dept of Labor & Employment 633 17th St, Ste 600Denver, CO 80202303 318-8850 phone