Labor Market Information Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Economic Climate and Employment Outlook Through 2018 Alexandra Hall Director, Labor

Labor Market Information

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Economic Climate and Employment OutlookThrough 2018

Alexandra HallDirector, Labor Market Information




Today’s Presentation• What is Labor Market Information?

• Colorado’s Current Economy

• Colorado’s Future Economy

• Growing/Declining Industries

• Top Jobs



• Economic activity peaked December 2007

• Since then, almost 7 million jobs lost nationwide

• Perspective – About 1 in 3 temporary help,1 in 5 construction and 1 in 7 manufacturing jobs have been lost in the U.S.

• Job losses have slowed substantially

Current Economy:Nation



Gross domestic product

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%



Personal Consumption Expenditures

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%



Gross Private Domestic Investment

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%



Personal Consumption Expenditures as a Share of U.S. GDP

60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

72.0%

197

0-I

197

1-I

197

2-I

197

3-I

197

4-I

197

5-I

197

6-I

197

7-I

197

8-I

197

9-I

198

0-I

198

1-I

198

2-I

198

3-I

198

4-I

198

5-I

198

6-I

198

7-I

198

8-I

198

9-I

199

0-I

199

1-I

199

2-I

199

3-I

199

4-I

199

5-I

199

6-I

199

7-I

199

8-I

199

9-I

200

0-I

200

1-I

200

2-I

200

3-I

200

4-I

200

5-I

200

6-I

200

7-I

200

8-I

200

9-I



Net Exports of Goods & ServicesBillions of Dollars

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

197

0-I

197

0-IV

1

971-

III

197

2-II

197

3-I

197

3-IV

1

974-

III

197

5-II

197

6-I

197

6-IV

1

977-

III

197

8-II

197

9-I

197

9-IV

1

980-

III

198

1-II

198

2-I

198

2-IV

1

983-

III

198

4-II

198

5-I

198

5-IV

1

986-

III

198

7-II

198

8-I

198

8-IV

1

989-

III

199

0-II

199

1-I

199

1-IV

1

992-

III

199

3-II

199

4-I

199

4-IV

1

995-

III

199

6-II

199

7-I

199

7-IV

1

998-

III

199

9-II

200

0-I

200

0-IV

2

001-

III

200

2-II

200

3-I

200

3-IV

2

004-

III

200

5-II

200

6-I

200

6-IV

2

007-

III

200

8-II

200

9-I



Government Expenditures

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%



Government Spending as a Share of GDP

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%



-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2009

Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment



U.S. Retail Sales, TotalOver the Year Percent Change

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



Debt



Federal Funds Rate



U.S. EmploymentOver the Month Percent Change

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan-

70

Jan-

71

Jan-

72

Jan-

73

Jan-

74

Jan-

75

Jan-

76

Jan-

77

Jan-

78

Jan-

79

Jan-

80

Jan-

81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09



U.S. Employment

124,000,000

126,000,000

128,000,000

130,000,000

132,000,000

134,000,000

136,000,000

138,000,000

140,000,000



Employment Change



Current Economy: Colorado

• Employment peaked 9 months later in August 2008

• Lost over 110,000 jobs through August 2009

• Unemployment rate may have peaked at 7.8% in July 2009, down to 7.3% in August



Colorado Employment

2,125,000

2,175,000

2,225,000

2,275,000

2,325,000

2,375,000



Colorado 4 Quarter Moving Average Establishment Openings & ClosingsOriginal Data Not Seasonally Adjusted

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

2001

:Q1

2001

:Q2

2001

:Q3

2001

:Q4

2002

:Q1

2002

:Q2

2002

:Q3

2002

:Q4

2003

:Q1

2003

:Q2

2003

:Q3

2003

:Q4

2004

:Q1

2004

:Q2

2004

:Q3

2004

:Q4

2005

:Q1

2005

:Q2

2005

:Q3

2005

:Q4

2006

:Q1

2006

:Q2

2006

:Q3

2006

:Q4

2007

:Q1

2007

:Q2

2007

:Q3

2007

:Q4

2008

:Q1

2008

:Q2

2008

:Q3

2008

:Q4

Establishment Openings Establishment Closings



Colorado: Gross Job Gains & Losses 4 Qtr Moving Average

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

Gross Job Gains Gross Job Losses



Colorado Employment Changes



Current Economy:On the Bright Side, Modest Improvement

• Consumer confidence may have turned the corner

• Job losses have slowed substantially

• Stimulus dollars are flowing

• According to many experts, Colorado is poised to lead the nation out of recession



Looking Forward:Colorado Employment Through 2018



Looking Forward:Regional Perspective





Looking Forward:Colorado’s Top Occupations









Contact Us

Alexandra HallLabor Market InformationColorado Dept of Labor & Employment 633 17th St, Ste 600Denver, CO 80202303 318-8850 phone

Documents

Labor Market Information Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Economic Climate and Employment Outlook Through 2018 Alexandra Hall Director, Labor