Research QuestionDoes the level of economic development in a country positively affect civil liberty?
Independent Variable: Level of Economic Development
Dependent Variable: Civil Liberty
Why is the level of civil liberty in a
country lower than that in another ?
ContentsTheory and HypothesisResearch DesignEvaluating Casual RelationshipsOperationalizationConceptual DefinitionValidityLevel of MeasurementThe Procedure and ResultsConclusion
Causal Theory Countries with higher level of economic development tend to have higher civil liberty
In comparing citizens of states, those having higher GDP per capita will be more likely to have greater civil libertyscore than will those having lower GDP per capita.
Hypothesis
Measurable variables
Y before X (effects) Y after
Research Design
Experimental Studies
ObservationalStudies Cross-sectional obser-
vational studies
Time-series observa-tional studies
“…get stuck on our fourth hurdle.”
“a set of procedures for testing a hypothesis”
Evaluating Causal Relationships
Four Hurdles
Causal Mechanism: YESReverse Causation: NOCorrelation/Covariation: YESSpurious Relationship: an astounding No
Evaluating Causal Relationships
Causal Mechanism Reverse Causation Correlation Spurious Relationship
C1: GDP per Capita increases (X) C2: As individual citizens gain economic power, they demand for civil rightsC3: Demand for civil rights gradually change the political system from dictatorship to democracy-----------------------------------------------E: Level of civil liberty increases (Y)
Spurious Relationship
Evaluating Causal Relationships
Confounding Z: Cold War?
Civil libertyLevel of Eco-nomic Devel-opment
No
Operationalization
Wealth [Independent Variable]
GDP Per Capita[Independent Variable]
Level of Freedom[Dependent Variable]
Civil Liberty[Dependent Variable]
Concept Concept
MeasuredMeasured
Operationalization
Conceptual Definition
• Conceptual Clarity : Have a clear sense of what the concept is that we are trying to measure.
The concept of ______ is defined as the extent to which _____ exhibits the characteristic of ______.
Conceptual Definition
Valid MeasureWhat is level of civil liberty in real word terms of rights and freedoms enjoyed by individuals?
Invalid Measure
What is Level of Civil Liberty?
The concept of Freedom is defined as the extent to which level of civil liberty exhibits the characteristic of political rights and civil liberty.
Conceptual Definition
Valid MeasureWhat is GDP per capita (PPP in exchange rate of U.S dol-lars within nations in given base year?
Invalid Measure
What is nations’ GDP per capita?
The concept of level of economic development is defined as the extent to which GDP per capita (PPP) exhibits the characteristic of Final output production within nations in given base year.
Validity
• Content Validity : Element of ConceptsPolitical RightCivil LibertyFreedom of Speech, Press, and ReligionEqual access to social and economic opportunities ControversyInvalid content : GINI Coefficient (limited)
• Construct Validity :Use GDP per capita (PPP) to define final output production
within nation to measure civil liberty.
Reliability and Validity
Reliability?
Yes No
Validity?
Yes No
Measures that are both re-liable and valid can be used to test hypotheses.
Non Experiment Design
Level of Measurement
• GDP per capita : Interval VariableRatio between adjacent scale values are equal with
respect to the attribute being measured.
GDP per capita (per $1000)
Ex) Mexico : 5.82 – South Africa : 3.25 = 2.57 Republic of Korea: 6.66 – Czech Republic : 4.09 = 2.57
Level of Measurement
• Civil Liberty Score : Ordinal VariableCategories that can be ordered by rank on a contin-
uum. The intervals between adjacent scale values are indeterminate.
Source : Freedom House
+4+5
+7+8
+7
Test Procedure and Re-sults
Results
Conclusion
The Hypothesis was Correct! Countries with higher level of economic development
will have higher civil liberty score!
Thank you!
Q & A