詹姆士看天下 2014/12/29

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2014/12/29

Copyright 2014 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

-0.24 -0.05 -0.04

0.08 0.17

0.38 0.60 0.62

0.76 0.90

1.32

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

: Lipper 2014/12/25

2

(%)


Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2014/12/26

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.52 407 408 297

6.92 509 493 335

9.82 872 862 461

4.21 255 251 218

() ()()()()


5.95

(&)

Bloomberg :2014/12/26

4.56

6.92

%

%

9.82

4


C

4.3

2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.7

2.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9

0.3

-0.1

-1.5 -2

0

2

4

6

MSCI MSCI

: Bloomberg 2014/12/26

5


l l

4.1

-0.5

-7.3

-0.2

1.1

-1.4 -0.2

11.4

-0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -2.9

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

C

RB

B

B

120.31

$1196.00 2.250%

$54.73

$1.2183


6

(%)


7.9

2.8 2.4 2.3

2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2

-0.3 -0.5 -1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

: Bloomberg 2014/12/26 ==225=

7


(7.9%)

(2.8%)

(-0.5%)

(-0.3%)

8


12

15%2%

2014/12/19

9


()

?IMF20156.6%(2.9%)(2.2%)9.5%33.8%

12MSCI9

2014/12/19

-

0320 ()

9202 ()

10


AH 50%

10%AHA?AHAHAHAH29%45%

2011AHHAAH111914.711.3MSCI9.8

AH

2014/12/23

-

0302 ()

- 4220 () 4202()

() 0404 ()

11


12FOMC53.7%

129

12947860546010%

2014/12/23

ING(L)Renta()

4924 () 4925 () 4932 () 4933 () 4934 ()

()

3809 () 3853 ()

WIP()

4603 ()

12


2014

9220%5%

2015121.84%061012(FTA)FTATPP()

106%

2014/12/24

0522 () 0548 ()

13


14

Bloomberg


15

() Bloomberg : 2014/12/26()


16

() Bloomberg : 2014/12/26 ()


12/29() 11 -0.1% 1.9%

12/30()11M3 2.6% 2.5%

12 94.0 88.7

12/31()

12 0.5% -1.1%

1/1()

12PMI 50.0 50.3

1/2()

12ISM 57.5 58.7

: Bloomberg

17


10%

80

18


(60%)

QE

11

(40%)

4

(2014/12/29)

19


110.6%0.3%11124.1%2011GDP3.5%5.0%11

168200131 GDP1.4%GDP2%

20


24 411CPI2.7%140.7%110.3%0.63.51.81.720113GDP0.7%

21


12233120141011

1224350%BBB-1

20156.1%20165%4.5%

22


11 493 520 525

11 -0.7% 3.0% 0.3%

11 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

11 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%

11 43.8 46.0 44.5

12 -10.9 -11.0 -11.5

GDP 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

GDP 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

: Bloomberg

23


11 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

11CPI 2.4% 2.5% 2.9%

11 6.0% 8.4% 13.4%

11 3.87% 3.87% 3.87%

12CPI 1.84% 2.10% 2.60%

2014GDP 5.98% 5.70% 5.62%

8.25% 8.25% 8.25%

11 -0.2% 2.0% 2.3%

11 11.4% 11.4% 11.3%

: Bloomberg

24


(%)

MSCI 1729.42 0.72 -0.58 1.60 -0.66 4.11 4.55 2088.77 0.88 1.03 5.61 6.52 13.01 13.43

1215.21 1.61 3.58 8.70 2.16 4.43 4.66 343.89 1.05 -0.69 0.72 0.57 4.76 6.07

231.14 1.09 1.50 3.42 -0.03 2.82 4.09 225 17818.96 1.12 2.06 9.25 18.05 9.38 10.14

4353.59 0.83 1.30 3.54 17.36 21.95 23.95

3157.60 1.58 17.70 33.93 55.05 49.23 50.27 MSCI 952.53 0.84 -5.19 -5.64 -8.95 -5.00 -4.51

MSCI 453.6 0.75 -2.94 -1.96 -3.06 1.61 2.10 MSCI 311.26 3.05 -11.90 -16.64 -28.68 -28.88 -28.32 MSCI 2713.17 0.11 -9.82 -14.68 -19.53 -15.23 -15.14 MSCI 274.79 1.90 -8.75 -9.30 -17.70 -16.32 -15.44

2067.19 -0.24 -0.04 1.37 1.95 4.42 4.39 219.72 0.17 0.87 2.05 4.59 10.84 10.81 2572.59 -0.04 -0.20 0.90 1.31 6.85 6.88

311.44 0.60 -2.40 -2.97 -5.57 -0.09 0.23 1046.75 0.76 -1.74 -1.48 -3.11 2.36 2.52 343.00 0.08 -2.68 -4.20 -8.92 -3.88 -3.20

UBS 324.43 0.38 -1.24 -0.60 -3.97 2.26 2.83

698.31 0.90 -2.24 -1.44 -1.18 7.39 7.26 161.91 0.62 -3.93 -1.17 -0.50 2.97 1.60

986.07 1.32 -2.87 -1.67 -2.98 4.71 4.75 377.38 -0.05 -0.71 0.69 2.16 7.83 7.85

BloombergLipper 2014/12/262014/12/25

25


(%) ()

MSCI 240.81 -0.08 0.03 -14.33 -22.18 -12.62 -12.37 MSCI 223.76 0.35 -1.91 -4.93 -10.90 -6.76 -6.32

MSCI 103.61 0.93 -0.72 1.76 -0.43 1.69 2.18 MSCI 187.00 1.39 -0.11 6.06 2.92 2.88 3.54 MSCI 202.62 1.04 -1.01 4.96 2.14 6.38 6.61

MSCI 201.75 1.17 -0.05 2.08 -1.93 -0.10 0.37 MSCI 144.42 1.54 0.59 6.46 10.28 17.26 17.95 MSCI 69.62 0.85 -3.95 -0.97 -3.97 -3.29 -3.20 MSCI 125.64 2.29 1.87 1.87 0.76 14.34 14.88 MSCI 201.73 -1.49 -1.71 3.43 6.94 17.39 17.59 NBI 3207.09 -3.22 0.86 11.02 19.55 35.35 35.90

AMEX 162.80 -1.55 0.01 -18.42 -31.19 -17.65 -17.85 REITs FTSE 14420.98 1.30 2.49 13.73 11.40 29.58 29.38 REITs FTSE 1756.47 1.26 3.13 15.12 11.83 32.09 31.71 REITs FTSE 1261.11 1.89 1.42 8.24 7.79 25.70 27.55 REITs FTSE 1520.27 0.86 0.78 4.55 -0.38 15.27 17.30

(/) 1196.00 -0.03 -0.16 -1.84 -9.16 -0.80 -1.21 (/) 16.07 -0.09 -2.71 -8.94 -23.87 -17.47 -18.73

(/) 6302.00 -1.53 -4.09 -6.19 -9.39 -14.38 -13.47 (/) 59.45 -3.14 -23.54 -38.71 -47.49 -46.34 -46.91 (/) 54.73 -4.20 -25.73 -41.49 -48.29 -44.39 -45.02

CRB 234.65 -2.35 -7.75 -17.13 -24.51 -16.25 -17.42 984.47 -0.13 0.90 8.39 -10.53 -5.01 -5.26


26


(%)

1.2183 -0.38 -2.58 -3.95 -10.50 -11.35 -11.01 120.31 -0.68 -2.14 -9.16 -15.44 -12.47 -12.88 1.5558 -0.44 -1.48 -4.26 -8.63 -6.03 -5.20

0.9875 -0.33 -2.66 -3.66 -9.51 -9.58 -9.21 1.1627 -0.23 -3.27 -4.07 -8.07 -8.64 -8.42 0.8121 -0.11 -5.00 -7.35 -13.73 -8.93 -8.71

1098.74 0.29 0.72 -4.95 -7.50 -4.45 -3.59 31.7370 -0.87 -2.56 -4.53 -5.64 -6.08 -5.35

6.2130 0.13 -1.20 -1.39 0.19 -2.55 -2.25 12409.00 0.70 -1.86 -2.91 -2.50 -1.92 -2.01

63.5687 -0.42 -2.70 -3.79 -5.39 -2.78 -2.21 32.9160 -0.16 -0.47 -1.77 -1.32 -0.64 -0.23

1.3232 -0.63 -1.92 -3.67 -5.59 -4.55 -4.07 3.4908 -0.42 -3.96 -6.61 -7.80 -6.16 -5.54

44.7000 0.16 0.55 0.28 -1.87 -0.68 -0.54

11.5973 -0.13 -5.54 -3.18 -8.31 -9.53 -10.68 2.3187 -0.28 -4.68 -2.44 -8.33 -7.35 -8.27 53.5001 10.26 -12.04 -26.79 -36.98 -38.56 -38.95 3.5909 -2.95 -6.94 -8.14 -15.06 -15.82 -15.84 260.41 -0.90 -5.75 -5.38 -12.95 -16.95 -16.70

3.6685 -0.33 -3.72 -5.05 -12.12 -11.29 -11.20

2.6692 -0.36 -6.28 -9.33 -17.70 -11.51 -11.82

14.7158 -0.81 -6.74 -8.62 -11.55 -11.41 -11.09 8.5508 0.00 -0.41 -1.48 -4.91 -23.75 -24.68


27


(%) () (bp)

30 2.8165 6.2 -13.8 -39.8 -53.9 -115.1 -110.7

10 2.2499 8.8 0.5 -27.8 -27.9 -77.8 -74.1

0.3300 -2.6 -10.7 -19.3 -24.2 -41.1 -37.8

0.5890 -0.3 -14.6 -38.3 -65.6 -134.0 -130.3

0.5890 -0.3 -14.6 -38.3 -65.6 -134.0 -130.3

0.8970 0.9 -15.4 -41.5 -78.7 -166.1 -158.9

1.9850 3.1 -17.5 -40.1 -86.0 -214.0 -221.6

1.7280 2.5 -24.9 -46.9 -91.4 -242.3 -248.5

2.7140 -1.1 -20.4 -38.3 -77.7 -341.6 -330.8

2.5080 -6.8 9.0 -49.7 -92.1 -183.9 -178.2

7.8900 -21.0 -8.0 -181.0 -100.0 -252.0 -265.0

13.0312 -56.8 270.3 369.4 458.0 514.7 511.0

3.6000 3.8 3.6 4.6 4.6 5.6 5.5

8.0640 6.5 37.1 -16.6 -25.3 15.8 25.5

12.4340 -12.7 49.9 57.6 47.7 155.8 155.8

5.9230 4.2 15.3 -17.1 24.1 -52.4 -61.1

2.6500 -6.7 1.3 -27.0 -55.5 -93.5 -92.5

7.8830 -17.4 17.3 -35.9 -40.5 -56.9 -51.3

7.9810 1.9 -16.4 -46.2 -75.1 -84.4 -91.0

9 2.7760 1.5 -4.9 -63.7 -96.0 -119.5 -119.5


28


/

(02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39

103027

Economy & Finance

詹姆士看天下 2014/12/29