詹姆士看天下 2015/03/16

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.

2015/03/16


124.26108.55

59.52

37.2654.80

2

2008

2014 () -34.64% -15.70%

-36.09% -7.28%

-21.11% -12.76%

-9.52% -5.56% -18.82% -5.58%

Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31

%


Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/3/13

3

(%) (bp) (bp) (bp)

4.29 364 375 297

6.63 442 468 335

9.75 822 860 461

4.06 236 248 218

() ()()()()


: Bloomberg 2015/3/13

4

(%)

5.89

(&)

4.29

6.63

%

%

9.75

FOMC

-1.22

-1.11

-0.85

-0.68

-0.65

-0.12

0.08

0.13

0.51

0.74

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1


-1.1

-2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -3.3

-5.0 -5.5

-7.0

0.3

-0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0

-2.6

-4.5

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1

5


MSCI MSCI

(%)

Copyright 2015 Ezfunds Securi:es Investment Consul:ng Enterprise Ltd.6

l (IEA)

l 100

-5.7

-34.6

3.5

-0.7

-9.6 -4.3

2.0

-0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.9 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6 -5.7

-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

10

CR

B

(%)


121.4

$1158.55

2.114% $44.84

$1.0496


4.1 3.0

1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8

-0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.5 -2.8 -2.9 -3.2

-4.6

-7.7

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

7

: Bloomberg 2015/3/13 ==225=

(%)


(4.1%)3

QE

(3.0%)

(-7.7%)

(-4.6%)

8


9

25.5%29.561012

132(LMCI)44.822%3.5%4%

4516.53%

97.611

()

2015/3/10

()

3830 () 3868 () 8360 ()

()()

0423 () 0424 ()

()-()

4530 () 4584 () 4532 () 4533 ()


QE

10

911

New Europe771.3%3150

3483282014

600

2015/3/10

()

2695 ()

8925 ()


QE 3 31003400

11

QE 113QEQE13 15.35%19.5%120.8%1.4%36QEQE 201317.52530310

2015/3/12

-

0302 ()

- 4220 () 4202 ()

() 0404 ()

QE


12

Bloomberg


13

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/13()


14

() Bloomberg : 2015/3/13()


: Bloomberg

FOMC

15

3/16() 2 0.2% 0.2%

3/17()

2 104.8 106.5

2 106.5 105.3

ZEW 59.4 53.0

2CPI -0.3% -0.3%

7.50% 7.50%

7.50% 7.50%

3/18() FOMC 0.25% 0.25%

3/19() 2 0.2% 0.2%

3/20() 3IBGEIPCA-15 1.24% 1.33%


FOMC6

100200311

24050QE

16


(60%)

2

QE

(40%)

6

(2015/3/16)

17


1210020031001.0511104

20.6%0.3%0.1%

18


(Benoit Coeure)3989

910515

19


QE3QEQE13 1.75%1.75%QE

20


4,0006,000

19.3

2414.0%

21


2 -0.6% 0.3% -0.8%

2PPI -0.5% 0.3% -0.8%

3 91.2 95.5 95.4

1 1.2% 0.1% 0.6%

1() 159 195 189

2 96 98 98

1 0.6% 0.4% -0.4%

1 1.3% 1.3% 0.8%

: Bloomberg

22


2 1.4% 1.0% 0.8%

2 -4.8% -4.3% -4.3%

2M2 12.5% 11.0% 10.8%

2 1200 7500 14700

1.75% 2.00% 2.00%

1.75% 2.00% 2.00%

14.00% 14.00% 15.00%

() -20.0 -27.5 68.1

1 0.6% -1.3% 0.3%

2CPI 3.00% 3.03% 3.07%

: Bloomberg

23


(%)

MSCI 1719.82 -1.27 -1.89 3.88 -0.73 0.59 4.79 2053.4 -0.86 -2.08 4.09 2.72 -0.27 11.53

1232.14 1.20 0.74 8.14 7.05 2.28 4.29 396.61 0.62 5.33 20.59 15.68 15.79 23.08

269.16 0.76 5.24 22.25 20.00 16.58 16.89 225 19254.25 1.49 6.94 14.91 21.01 10.33 34.39

4604.95 1.22 3.84 8.41 10.39 4.87 28.01

3372.91 4.06 4.67 11.63 46.87 4.27 68.28 MSCI 939.56 -3.26 -4.52 3.25 -10.86 -1.75 0.20

MSCI 466.21 -2.32 -1.65 5.14 -1.83 1.91 8.85 MSCI 283.14 -6.82 -11.03 3.42 -28.73 -4.53 -22.83 MSCI 2339.81 -5.02 -11.23 -6.30 -32.66 -14.22 -17.35 MSCI 260.02 -5.51 -9.55 4.62 -18.81 -3.97 -12.44

Bloomberg 121.86 0.74 -0.17 0.29 3.45 0.58 4.56 Bloomberg 133.98 0.13 0.22 1.65 2.98 1.25 6.97 Bloomberg 138.20 0.51 -0.14 1.01 3.11 1.08 5.78

Bloomberg 145.87 -1.11 -0.94 0.30 -4.03 -0.31 -3.02 Bloomberg 152.97 -0.68 0.30 3.60 -0.98 2.09 1.41 Bloomberg 163.50 -0.12 1.31 2.85 2.65 2.91 5.78 ETF 47.24 0.08 -0.94 0.11 -3.87 0.75 -0.11

Bloomberg 141.63 -0.65 -0.48 1.58 -1.21 0.57 4.75 Bloomberg 123.00 -1.22 -2.39 -1.39 -2.52 -1.14 1.88 Bloomberg 150.36 -0.85 -0.34 1.92 4.64 1.95 11.34

Bloomberg 2015/3/13

24


(%) ()

MSCI 218.00 -4.48 -10.40 -1.55 -25.09 -8.33 -19.01 MSCI 225.63 -2.56 -4.55 5.35 -7.08 1.16 -5.46

MSCI 101.75 -0.76 -1.31 2.01 -2.06 -0.98 2.25 MSCI 195.32 -0.46 0.67 9.18 8.60 4.89 10.34 MSCI 201.27 -2.03 -1.93 3.04 2.10 0.68 8.18

MSCI 201.92 -0.50 -0.96 4.31 0.31 1.30 3.18 MSCI 142.47 -1.98 -2.00 4.90 3.95 0.84 16.29 MSCI 68.81 -1.77 -3.98 1.76 -2.98 0.66 0.01 MSCI 112.76 -1.54 -4.72 -4.72 -6.03 -8.37 -2.98 MSCI 211.37 0.31 1.63 6.82 8.37 5.74 17.79 NBI 3614.36 0.86 6.80 17.55 27.55 13.75 36.31

AMEX 160.65 -3.57 -15.87 6.38 -27.08 -2.06 -37.80 REITs FTSE 14436.31 2.01 -3.19 4.55 11.98 1.32 20.48 REITs FTSE 1762.51 2.45 -3.28 4.63 13.48 1.52 21.39 REITs FTSE 1479.25 0.28 1.50 24.71 27.48 18.04 43.32 REITs FTSE 1509.54 -3.03 -3.16 0.24 1.99 -0.75 12.37

(/) 1158.55 -0.74 -5.77 -5.23 -5.79 -2.22 -15.44 (/) 15.66 -1.55 -9.83 -3.15 -16.19 -0.35 -26.08

(/) 5858.50 1.98 2.15 -9.73 -14.32 -7.01 -8.67 (/) 54.67 -8.47 -11.13 -11.61 -43.70 -4.64 -49.09 (/) 44.84 -9.61 -15.04 -22.44 -51.40 -15.83 -54.34

CRB 210.70 -4.29 -8.07 -11.75 -25.91 -8.37 -30.44 879.20 -1.56 -5.41 -10.22 -7.13 -8.86 -23.60


25


(%)

1.0496 -3.21 -7.88 -15.61 -18.89 -13.24 -24.32 121.40 -0.47 -2.18 -2.95 -11.71 -1.33 -16.11 1.4744 -1.95 -4.23 -5.72 -9.17 -5.35 -11.31

1.0056 -1.99 -7.30 -3.98 -7.00 -1.12 -13.02 1.2783 -1.26 -2.62 -8.69 -13.52 -9.09 -13.35 0.7637 -1.02 -1.61 -6.99 -15.41 -6.58 -15.44

1128.70 -2.72 -2.82 -2.61 -8.04 -3.34 -5.26 31.6210 -0.59 -0.55 -0.92 -4.87 0.11 -4.07

6.2589 0.07 -0.29 -1.05 -1.88 -0.85 -1.94 13205.00 -1.76 -3.08 -3.72 -9.34 -6.19 -13.78

62.9662 -1.28 -1.22 -0.03 -2.89 0.12 -2.84 32.9250 -1.07 -0.96 0.14 -1.97 -0.05 -1.78

1.3927 -1.10 -2.69 -5.73 -9.26 -4.83 -9.04 3.6855 -0.97 -2.88 -5.11 -12.39 -5.11 -11.17

44.2900 -0.47 -0.01 0.88 -0.07 0.97 0.59

12.4792 -3.62 -6.52 -5.77 -12.15 -7.28 -13.40 2.6398 -0.62 -6.92 -9.98 -16.11 -11.55 -15.43 62.2345 -2.99 1.94 3.22 -38.41 -2.41 -41.28 3.9528 -3.76 -7.06 -14.86 -17.98 -10.35 -22.69 291.21 -3.31 -7.64 -14.64 -16.57 -10.15 -22.29

4.2343 -3.29 -7.83 -14.92 -19.46 -12.57 -23.17

3.2487 -6.03 -12.74 -17.02 -27.88 -18.20 -27.23

15.4877 0.07 -3.89 -4.69 -14.54 -4.75 -14.18 8.7823 -0.26 -1.13 -2.63 -4.34 -3.61 -10.16


26


(%) () (bp)

30 2.6987 10.8 5.1 -3.9 -64.5 -5.3 -89.2

10 2.1140 12.1 6.4 3.2 -49.7 -5.7 -53.1

0.4100 7.5 -1.4 1.4 -16.8 8.1 -23.4

0.2570 -7.1 -8.5 -36.7 -82.5 -28.4 -128.4 0.2570 -7.1 -8.5 -36.7 -82.5 -28.4 -128.4 0.4970 -10.7 -14.8 -40.0 -93.3 -32.9 -164.1

1.1490 -18.2 -45.8 -91.5 -130.9 -74.1 -228.7 1.1500 -11.0 -40.1 -73.0 -119.6 -46.1 -223.2 1.5600 -26.8 -82.6 -141.1 -167.5 -112.7 -305.3

2.4570 30.0 27.6 -13.1 -77.2 -6.1 -184.0 8.5100 13.0 89.0 10.0 -79.0 49.0 -262.0 12.6663 -26.3 86.7 5.8 296.5 -34.1 323.0 3.5800 67.0 55.0 11.0 -125.0 -2.0 -234.0

7.9920 36.8 43.7 0.9 -26.0 2.3 -55.7

13.4040 111.6 76.5 81.3 164.5 104.0 37.2

6.1020 47.0 43.7 0.3 16.1 25.8 -16.1

2.3570 0.2 -4.0 -33.9 -65.4 -24.8 -117.6 7.3590 29.7 -13.6 -86.8 -83.4 -43.7 -67.8 7.7980 7.0 10.0 -7.1 -70.5 -5.9 -94.0

9 2.6750 6.2 -0.5 -1.4 -79.7 7.4 -125.1


27


/

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詹姆士看天下 2015/03/16