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警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 警語:本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表基金之績效,基金投資風險請參閱基金公開說明書 2015/05/04

詹姆士看天下 2015/05/04

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  1. 1. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 2015/05/04
  2. 2. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 124.26 108.55 59.52 37.26 54.80 2008 2014 () -34.64% -15.70% -36.09% -7.28% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% -18.82%-5.58% Bloomberg() 2014/12/312005/12/31 %
  3. 3. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg 1bp=0.01% :2015/5/1 (%) (bp) (bp) (bp) 4.34 388 383 297 6.45 456 453 335 8.33 723 710 461 3.83 244 227 218 () () () () ()
  4. 4. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 2015/5/1 (%) 5.86 (&) 4.34 6.45 % % 8.33 -1.46 -1.05 -0.64 -0.58 -0.57 -0.31 -0.05 0.09 0.13 0.48 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
  5. 5. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. -0.1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 -1.8 -2.1 -2.1 -3.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 5 : Bloomberg 2015/5/1 MSCI MSCI (%)
  6. 6. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 6 l l 0% 10.7 140.6 25.2 -2.0 3.7 1.7 6.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.7 -0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.9-1.4-1.5-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 CRB (%) : Bloomberg 2015/5/1 120.15 $1178.592.114% $1.1199$59.15
  7. 7. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 1.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.6 -3.0 -3.0 -6.4-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 7 : Bloomberg 2015/5/1 ==225= (%)
  8. 8. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (1.0%) (6.4%) (-3.0%-3.0%) (-2.4%)
  9. 9. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 (Moderate) ( St r o n g ) (Moderate) 3 GDP 1 400 800~900 iPhone33% Facebook 2015/4/29 NN(L) 4956 () 4958 () 3895 () 42% 27 201513.4% 8.1%
  10. 10. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. H 4500 2000 3 QE 6092 HAH3 3QDIIH A AH 2015/4/29 - 0302 () () 0404 () - 4220 () 4202 () 427112() 40 AHHA H
  11. 11. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. Bloomberg
  12. 12. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. ()Bloomberg : 2015/5/1()
  13. 13. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. () Bloomberg : 2015/5/1()
  14. 14. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. : Bloomberg 4 5/4() 3 2.0% 0.2% 4PMI 51.9 51.9 5/5) 3 -413 -354 4ISM 56.0 56.5 2.00% 2.25% 5/6() 4ADP 20.0 18.9 1.50% 1.50% 5/7() 3 1.5% -0.9% 4 6.2% 6.1% 5/8() 4 22.5 12.6 4 5.4% 5.5% 3 0.4% 0.2%
  15. 15. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 4 1.1 42 2014 4308OPEC 3104
  16. 16. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (60%) Q1 QE 6.3% 6 1.1% TevaMylan (40%) 4 QE (2015/5/4)
  17. 17. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 (Strong)(Moderate) GDP0.2%GDP0.2% 1.0% 4253.4 26.2200041530.42 0.23
  18. 18. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. CPI44CPI QE 41029 536.4940
  19. 19. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4(20162020 4 8 62 1%
  20. 20. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. -1.1% 15014% 12.5% 8%20174%
  21. 21. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4 95.2 102.5 101.4 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% GDP 0.2% 1.0% 2.2% 4ISM 51.5 52.0 51.5 4 95.9 96.0 95.9 3 11.3% 11.2% 11.3% 4 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 3M3 4.6% 4.3% 4.0% 3 3.5% 3.1% 3.3% 3CPI 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 4 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% : Bloomberg
  22. 22. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. 4PMI 50.1 50.0 50.1 3 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 1.50% 1.75% 1.75% 13.25% 13.25% 12.75% 12.50% 13.00% 14.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% : Bloomberg
  23. 23. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) MSCI 1787.40 -0.69 2.12 4.21 5.25 4.55 5.83 2108.29 -0.44 2.00 3.27 4.78 2.40 12.08 1228.11 -3.11 -2.19 3.08 5.38 1.94 8.80 394.66 -3.37 -0.79 6.06 19.28 15.22 16.85 267.87 -2.78 -0.38 7.17 21.96 16.02 14.28 225 19531.63 -2.44 0.50 10.48 15.83 11.92 35.10 4764.67 -1.46 0.97 8.39 15.78 8.50 35.50 4441.66 1.09 16.57 38.35 83.53 37.31 119.19 MSCI 1045.99 -1.37 5.20 6.64 3.86 9.38 4.25 MSCI 513.70 -1.55 5.42 8.13 10.96 12.29 15.17 MSCI 336.05 0.34 6.60 14.02 -8.32 13.31 -15.29 MSCI 2677.17 -2.06 5.08 1.36 -13.47 -1.85 -19.19 MSCI 294.82 -0.02 4.44 5.59 -3.95 8.88 -7.37 Bloomberg 122.05 -1.05 -1.34 -2.11 1.92 0.74 4.21 Bloomberg 133.42 -0.57 -0.46 -0.01 1.78 0.83 5.63 Bloomberg 138.35 -1.46 -1.46 -1.77 1.83 1.19 4.08 Bloomberg 150.20 0.48 2.14 3.59 -0.39 2.65 -1.39 Bloomberg 156.38 -0.05 1.64 4.00 1.22 4.36 2.32 Bloomberg 163.63 0.09 0.29 2.21 3.64 3.00 4.46 ETF 48.55 -0.31 1.55 4.05 1.24 3.54 2.66 Bloomberg 146.02 -0.64 1.09 3.00 0.99 3.68 5.07 Bloomberg 126.36 0.13 0.81 0.15 -0.84 1.56 2.81 Bloomberg 152.84 -0.58 0.18 0.46 4.72 3.62 11.15 Bloomberg 2015/5/1
  24. 24. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () MSCI 246.28 0.83 7.67 4.37 -3.04 3.56 -16.57 MSCI 236.32 0.73 4.36 3.53 6.07 5.95 -4.19 MSCI 105.62 -0.24 1.48 5.39 2.68 2.78 3.33 MSCI 199.65 -1.34 0.88 5.47 13.19 7.22 13.30 MSCI 206.14 -1.03 0.11 0.33 4.69 3.11 5.82 MSCI 206.80 -0.32 1.66 3.57 4.49 3.75 2.51 MSCI 147.61 -0.79 3.17 5.81 7.20 4.48 18.99 MSCI 72.50 -0.33 3.22 2.37 3.50 6.06 0.60 MSCI 118.22 -1.42 1.16 1.16 -3.00 -3.93 -1.24 MSCI 217.00 -2.09 1.13 6.08 9.02 8.56 20.12 NBI 3598.33 -5.50 1.24 10.02 17.23 13.24 50.38 AMEX 179.90 3.52 7.71 -10.95 16.74 9.68 -20.60 REITs FTSE 14177.29 -2.82 -4.96 -6.49 2.24 -0.50 13.23 REITs FTSE 1723.42 -3.05 -5.66 -7.26 2.23 -0.73 13.35 REITs FTSE 1460.99 -3.56 -2.11 0.08 22.12 16.58 33.88 REITs FTSE 1543.15 -1.81 0.78 -1.52 2.02 1.46 8.60 (/) 1178.59 -0.07 -1.70 -6.84 1.21 -0.20 -9.02 (/) 16.16 2.69 -4.42 -6.51 1.30 3.37 -17.20 (/) 6400.00 6.14 5.87 16.47 -4.41 1.59 -3.69 (/) 66.46 1.81 20.87 22.64 -19.80 15.86 -38.83 (/) 59.15 3.50 20.13 21.84 -23.53 10.81 -40.83 CRB 227.95 1.74 5.49 3.39 -14.78 -0.87 -25.78 875.82 -0.77 -2.33 -2.74 -10.09 -9.21 -25.16 : Bloomberg 2015/5/1
  25. 25. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) 1.1199 3.00 2.48 -1.34 -10.78 -7.48 -19.33 120.15 -0.97 -0.52 -2.40 -5.46 -0.32 -15.00 1.5148 -0.26 1.87 -0.16 -5.28 -2.69 -10.13 0.9324 2.25 2.70 -0.77 2.82 6.51 -5.97 1.2159 0.12 2.56 3.32 -6.24 -4.51 -9.98 0.7851 0.35 3.03 0.89 -10.48 -4.32 -15.66 1077.45 0.19 0.37 0.33 -0.41 0.92 -4.79 30.6240 0.66 0.78 2.44 -0.53 3.18 -1.78 6.2032 -0.14 -0.06 0.91 -1.45 0.04 0.91 12948.00 -0.20 -0.24 -2.78 -6.78 -4.64 -11.32 63.4225 0.22 -1.46 -2.55 -3.24 -0.60 -4.87 33.2360 -2.08 -2.46 -1.84 -1.75 -1.05 -2.74 1.3302 0.14 1.61 1.20 -3.28 -0.54 -6.18 3.5735 0.18 0.95 -0.97 -7.46 -2.79 -9.51 44.5900 -0.78 -0.57 -1.22 0.70 0.17 -0.53 12.0658 0.47 -2.11 -4.80 -8.45 -4.02 -12.52 2.7081 0.23 -5.23 -9.09 -18.12 -13.93 -22.58 51.9150 -2.05 8.82 33.22 -14.24 19.16 -29.89 3.6366 2.10 2.70 1.18 -7.27 -2.46 -16.59 271.31 2.72 0.87 0.35 -9.30 -3.62 -18.13 3.9436 2.88 2.47 -1.63 -10.83 -6.20 -18.92 3.0145 -2.14 6.04 -9.52 -17.80 -11.84 -25.95 15.5420 -1.04 -4.04 -4.21 -12.81 -5.12 -16.01 8.9068 -0.20 -0.99 -2.86 -4.55 -4.96 -10.17 : Bloomberg 2015/5/1
  26. 26. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. (%) () (bp) 30 2.8273 30.8 36.2 60.5 -23.9 7.5 -58.6 10 2.1135 24.8 25.6 47.3 -22.2 -5.8 -50.0 0.3630 5.5 -2.5 8.5 -9.5 3.4 -25.9 0.3730 29.5 20.6 7.1 -46.8 -16.8 -109.6 0.3730 29.5 20.6 7.1 -46.8 -16.8 -109.6 0.6520 28.2 20.0 11.6 -53.0 -17.4 -130.0 1.4960 1.8 21.7 -9.8 -85.2 -39.4 -157.4 1.5330 7.9 32.6 11.0 -54.3 -7.8 -146.7 2.0940 7.8 39.8 -54.6 -112.3 -59.3 -148.2 2.6320 33.1 32.3 65.2 9.2 11.4 -140.1 9.3400 39.0 87.0 224.0 59.0 132.0 -3.0 10.5244 -14.5 -125.6 -269.9 65.1 -248.2 99.3 3.4400 16.0 18.0 65.0 -56.0 -16.0 -191.0 7.9560 10.0 24.1 83.0 4.6 -1.3 -48.7 12.7950 20.5 -37.8 84.0 61.0 43.1 19.3 5.9120 18.0 5.2 67.2 2.1 6.8 -32.2 2.4240 30.9 27.4 18.4 -26.1 -18.1 -110.1 7.7100 17.7 33.1 61.2 -22.9 -8.6 -26.7 * 7.8630 6.7 12.5 17.1 -41.7 0.6 -96.7 9 2.4750 -1.8 -21.2 -14.1 -81.8 -25.4 -107.0 : Bloomberg 2015/5/1
  27. 27. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd. / (02)770-88888 6633 (03)620-5699 897 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 Copyright2015EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.
  28. 28. Copyright2014EzfundsSecuri:esInvestmentConsul:ngEnterpriseLtd.