20171218 先鋒週報稅改再獲進展美國三大股指續創新高

1. 2 0 1 7 / 12 /1 8

2. 0.59 0.55 0.26 0.08 0.07 0.03 (0.05) (0.07) (1) 0 1 (2.3) (0.6) (0.7) (8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4 6 : Bloomberg 2017/12/17 (%) (bp) 2.353 0.0460.301 1

3. 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 (0.0) 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 (1.5) (4) (3) (2) (1) 0 1 2 3 4 : Bloomberg 2017/12/17 MSCI MSCI (%) 3

4. : Bloomberg 2017/12/17 ==225= (%) 2.9 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) (0.7) (0.9) (1.1) (1.4) (3.0) (5.0) (3.0) (1.0) 1.0 3.0 5.0 4

5. (2.9%) (2.6%)2018 (-1.4%)12/16 (-3.0%)3 5

6. Bloomberg 6

7. ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/17 () 7

8. ()Bloomberg : 2017/12/17 () 8

9. 0.6 (0.1) (0.3) 4.8 4.2 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (0.5) (0.5) (0.7) (2) 0 2 4 6 CRB : Bloomberg 2017/12/17 (%) $1.1749 112.6 93.93 $57.30 $1255.45 9 $64.05

10. : Bloomberg 10 12/11 () , JOLTS 10 5996 - 6093.0 12/12 () CPI 11 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% ZEW 12 17.4 18.7 PPI 11 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 12/13 () 10 5.0% 2.7% -8.1% CPI 11 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 11 2.3% 2.3% CPI 11 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 12/14 () 11 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% PMI 12 59.3 57.7 PMI 12 63.3 60.3 PMI 12 60.6 60.1 Markit PMI 12 55.0 54.0 53.9 12/15 () 25.0 24.0 22.0 12 18.0 18.0 19.4

11. 12/18 () CPI () 11 - 1.5% 12/19 () 11 1,250k 1,290k IFO 12 - 117.5 12/20 () 11 5.53m 5.48m 10 0.3% -0.5% 12/21 () GDP () 3 3.3% 3.3% 11 0.4% 1.2% () 12 - 0.1% 12/22 () 12 97.2 96.8 () 11 1.8% -0.8% 11 0.4% 0.4% 11 0.4% 0.3% 11 651k 685k GDP () 3 1.5% 1.5% GDP () 3 - 2.2% : Bloomberg 11

12. 12 12/152 Marco RubioBob Corker 21% 201837% 12/19 12/20 12/21 12/18~202018 12/20 (1.5%) 12/21 (-0.1%)

13. 2018GDP2.5% IMF2018GDP1.9% ECB2019 13

14. 2017 Fed20183 ECB OPEC 14

15. 15

16. (%) MSCI 2085.54 0.58 2.58 4.77 8.44 19.09 18.85 2675.81 0.92 3.76 6.87 9.97 19.52 18.50 1530.43 0.57 2.52 6.20 8.79 12.77 12.19 388.19 -0.27 1.14 1.63 -0.11 7.41 7.82 292.37 -0.55 1.64 2.05 1.91 13.63 14.96 225 22553.22 -1.13 1.89 14.62 14.43 19.39 17.63 7184.92 2.55 6.47 7.87 19.85 37.03 40.78 3266.14 -0.73 -3.53 -2.96 4.49 5.15 4.49 MSCI 1118.50 0.70 -1.58 0.50 11.50 29.72 30.61 MSCI 571.19 0.51 -1.95 2.04 12.73 36.33 35.45 MSCI 335.87 1.95 1.96 0.69 11.76 13.10 14.91 MSCI 2715.07 0.48 -2.19 -9.32 7.14 16.00 21.07 MSCI 275.88 1.81 0.84 1.72 9.07 12.71 16.82 Bloomberg 2169.61 0.26 0.22 -0.13 0.16 2.50 3.43 Bloomberg 248.28 -0.07 0.30 1.27 1.69 2.98 3.48 Bloomberg 2903.16 0.55 1.05 1.36 2.26 6.47 7.93 Bloomberg 354.35 0.03 0.50 0.40 3.31 9.62 10.45 Bloomberg 182.84 0.04 1.10 0.72 2.40 7.69 8.34 Bloomberg 316.99 -0.05 0.13 0.86 2.34 6.76 7.21 ETF 51.45 0.59 -0.92 0.06 3.71 12.71 12.14 Bloomberg 1095.78 0.24 0.67 0.36 2.34 8.14 9.19 Bloomberg 134.19 0.24 1.29 -0.89 2.74 12.44 13.54 Bloomberg 2017/12/17 16

17. (%) () MSCI 213.82 0.17 2.37 4.45 7.57 -2.36 -2.84 MSCI 270.19 0.73 1.09 3.60 13.23 21.78 22.37 MSCI 125.63 0.06 3.75 6.11 10.68 18.32 17.49 MSCI 236.78 0.74 3.59 6.91 8.81 20.54 19.56 MSCI 236.42 0.57 3.23 2.56 1.82 13.92 14.46 MSCI 257.06 0.04 3.28 4.23 7.25 20.98 20.87 MSCI 222.67 1.50 0.94 9.40 17.28 38.10 37.12 MSCI 70.65 0.28 4.87 1.70 0.44 1.61 3.12 MSCI 130.26 -1.51 -0.74 -0.74 0.06 13.31 14.22 MSCI 228.32 1.15 2.58 0.41 4.23 18.41 18.36 NBI 3346.72 0.24 2.72 -3.68 9.33 20.70 17.65 AMEX 180.09 1.64 -4.15 -11.08 -3.27 -1.22 8.94 REITs FTSE 17446.65 1.16 0.35 1.93 3.50 9.63 11.41 REITs FTSE 2021.51 1.38 0.85 1.46 2.22 5.00 6.90 REITs FTSE 1409.63 -0.33 3.35 4.92 0.51 6.70 9.36 REITs FTSE 1835.28 2.54 3.70 2.84 2.21 9.71 14.52 (/) 1255.45 0.56 -3.02 -4.01 0.12 8.93 10.60 (/) 16.06 1.22 -5.07 -6.73 -2.73 0.78 0.53 (/) 6886.00 4.79 1.67 5.82 21.64 24.40 20.13 (/) 63.23 -0.27 0.99 14.17 33.71 11.47 14.73 (/) 57.30 -0.10 1.45 14.95 28.23 6.79 10.54 CRB 184.52 -0.27 -3.08 0.43 6.63 -4.15 -3.61 794.58 -0.40 -1.80 -2.62 -4.73 -5.52 -6.02 Bloomberg 2017/12/17 17

18. (%) 1.1749 -0.20 0.23 -1.62 5.48 11.82 13.06 112.60 0.78 -0.02 -0.95 -0.99 3.84 3.95 1.3320 -0.52 0.73 -1.21 4.67 8.04 7.56 0.9905 0.22 0.28 -2.94 -1.50 2.87 3.71 1.2866 -0.14 -0.30 -4.42 2.80 4.53 4.27 0.7646 1.82 1.43 -3.77 0.76 6.24 5.70 1089.26 0.30 1.18 3.59 4.13 10.86 9.13 29.9940 0.04 0.20 0.33 1.19 7.77 6.55 6.6093 0.18 0.39 -0.54 3.15 5.05 5.28 13570.00 -0.15 -0.43 -2.45 -2.25 -0.85 -1.46 64.0450 0.64 1.82 0.06 0.77 6.06 5.92 32.5100 0.35 0.82 1.65 4.35 10.08 10.18 1.3488 0.31 0.58 -0.10 2.81 7.24 7.41 4.0795 0.20 1.53 2.49 4.65 9.77 9.58 50.4500 0.21 0.71 1.44 -0.89 -1.55 -0.70 13.0996 4.15 7.17 1.52 -0.80 4.83 7.88 3.8622 -0.70 1.76 -9.59 -8.76 -8.74 -8.49 58.7618 0.62 1.02 -1.15 -0.52 4.69 5.32 3.5828 -0.46 0.69 0.28 5.69 16.94 18.78 267.33 -0.24 -0.28 -3.08 3.46 10.21 12.13 3.9328 0.07 0.72 -2.18 4.82 9.66 10.46 3.3024 -0.27 0.39 -5.81 -0.82 -1.43 1.90 19.1175 -0.99 -0.34 -6.82 -5.78 8.74 6.96 17.5112 -1.33 0.01 -3.05 -8.78 -9.32 -8.88 Bloomberg 2017/12/17 18

19. (%) () (bp) 30 2.6873 -8.1 -9.1 -11.1 -8.8 -37.8 -48.7 10 2.3530 -2.3 0.9 12.4 20.2 -9.1 -23.9 0.0460 -0.7 1.0 1.7 -1.0 0.0 -3.5 0.3010 -0.6 -7.5 -13.2 1.9 9.3 -6.4 0.6320 -0.1 -10.0 -7.8 0.4 -5.4 -14.5 1.8120 16.1 -2.4 -26.6 -15.5 -0.3 -1.4 1.4590 5.8 -9.1 -15.0 4.3 7.5 3.8 1.8400 3.4 -15.8 -96.3 -102.2 -192.4 -193.4 3.2310 -2.3 -20.3 -0.3 10.2 -40.2 -29.5 12.4600 44.0 7.0 175.0 192.0 107.0 90.0 7.6294 -1.9 -9.5 5.9 -24.9 -83.0 -92.3 2.1200 3.0 -9.0 -71.0 -83.0 -104.0 -125.0 9.1610 -10.6 -24.4 75.5 67.5 23.7 14.1 10.3880 19.7 -9.9 58.2 -24.7 -101.3 -165.1 7.4980 19.8 13.1 68.2 52.6 6.2 17.5 2.4300 -5.7 -13.7 18.0 30.5 33.8 24.5 6.4930 -6.8 -13.7 1.5 -32.9 -148.0 -149.1 * 7.1310 4.1 11.4 53.4 64.9 61.6 60.9 2.3940 0.8 4.0 6.3 -0.6 -25.5 -37.6 : Bloomberg 2017/12/17 * 19

20. 2008 2014 -26.69% -5.61% -36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% Bloomberg() 2017/10/30 % 20

21. 106022 (02)7708-8888 407225F-1 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 21

Economy & Finance

20171218 先鋒週報 稅改再獲進展 美國三大股指續創新高

20171218 先鋒週報稅改再獲進展美國三大股指續創新高