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The Future of Ageing Insights from Discussions Building on an Ini4al Perspec4ve by: Laura Carstensen | Ken Smith | Dominika Jaworski | Stanford Center on Longevity
Context The ini4al perspec4ve on the Future of Ageing kicked off the
Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015. This summary builds on the ini4al view and is updated as we progress.
Ini4al Perspec4ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
Lifespan Limits On a global scale, life expectancies in developed regions are con4nuing to rise in the 21st century and, although most people assume that there are biological limits on life span, so far there is liUle evidence that we are approaching them.
Age Diversified Workforces The demographic changes underway are fundamentally altering virtually all aspects of life as we know it. Workforces are becoming
older and more age diversified than ever in history.
Culture Shi? The culture that guides people through life today is a culture that evolved around shorter lives. The urgent challenge now is to create cultures that support people through ten and more decades of life.
Looking Ahead Rather than move forward by happenstance, we need strategic thinking
about how to best use added decades of life. Helping individuals and na4ons visualize and prepare is essen4al to ensure that longer lives are high quality.
Societal Benefit 85% of Americans aged 65-‐69 report no health-‐based limita4ons on paid work or housework. Similar trends are evident in Europe. Socie4es that
find ways to tap older peoples’ contribu4ons will benefit greatly.
Infeasible ReDrement For many, re4rement at age 65 is economically infeasible. The reality is that few workers can fund a 30 year re4rement
with a 40 year career. Neither can socie4es.
Increased Wellbeing Both paid and unpaid work are associated with enhanced well-‐being,
delayed disability, decreased mortality risk, and onset of fewer diseases and associated func4onal impairments.
Working Longer For those who have inadequate re4rement savings, the most obvious
solu4on is to work longer. One major poten4al barrier, however, is that employers remain ambivalent about older workers.
Cost of Older Workers The cost of older workers is a real issue for employers. Offering bridge jobs or flexible work arrangements such as flex hours and part-‐4me work will allow employers to retain the exper4se of older workers while reducing costs.
The Bigger Opportunity Predic4ons about economic disaster change to discussions of economic
growth if people remain produc4ve into advanced ages. We are experiencing one of the greatest opportuni4es to improve quality of life at all ages.
Life Worth Living We shif the system from one focused on care with the needs of the ins4tu4on a priority to one focused on enhancing quality of life and dignity. There is a rise in pallia4ve care and societal par4cipa4on giving more meaning to later life.
Intra and Inter-‐generaDonal Harmony Mutually nega4ve stereotypes between young and old and inequality are
replaced with a growing interest in youth serving the elderly. The wisdom of elders is again respected and sought by younger genera4ons.
Care for the Ageing As the popula4on ages, the healthcare sector changes the way in which it
delivers support, with more coordina4on among service providers and more in-‐home care. There is also a frank conversa4on about people’s “right to die”.
AdapDng for Ageing PopulaDons In developed countries, 80% of older people will live in ci4es by 2050, while
ci4es in developing countries will house 25% of the older popula4on. Planners are adap4ng urban environments to support healthy ageing of popula4ons.
MulD-‐GeneraDonal Travel Many elect to travel together as mul4-‐genera4on groups of both families and mixed friends. They look for vaca4ons that keep everyone happy and, as such,
stress many systems based on delivering segmented experiences.
SupporDng the Ageing Workforce As major economies suffer from increasing dependency ra4os, the challenge of suppor4ng an increasingly older workforce demands rethinking of life-‐long
learning and broader acceptance of the cost of part-‐4me flexible jobs.
DisrupDve Voices, DisrupDve Impacts Senior ac4vism will grow with the demographic. Policy will increasingly reflect
the will of older people: especially in housing/communi4es, health and employment, leading to intergenera4onal tensions over choices made.
Wisdom Over Experience Differences between working styles of young and old will decrease. Older
workers will also become flexible, auto-‐didacts exploring mul4ple-‐careers, but with a unique proposi4on to employers valuing wisdom over experience.
We have one similar to this already. I thought our group added depth and nuance but not
necessarily novelty
Senior-‐preneurship Flourishes Products and services aimed at the ageing popula4on will proliferate. But seniors will also be ac4vely involved in innova4on themselves, developing
new economic opportuni4es for all, both within and beyond the ageing space.
HolisiDc Health Planning There will be a wholesale shif in health focus from short-‐term problem-‐solving to long-‐term, healthy-‐life planning and management, with GPs
(ini4ally) shifing their role to become whole-‐life health coaches.
Living While Dying We will see policy, product and service innova4ons in the field of end-‐of-‐life planning. Businesses and professions will come to recognise the need to provide more (end-‐of) life-‐style choices to individuals and consumers.
Re-‐defining Purpose Life-‐plans will need to recognise lengthy ‘old-‐age’,
driving a search for purpose into and beyond the tradi4onal, but arbitrary, no4on of re4rement.
Unequal Futures New technologies, new economic opportuni4es and new lifestyle choices for older people will be very unevenly distributed, leading to extreme inequali4es
within and between ageing popula4ons.
Cross-‐generaDonal CollaboraDon Tapping into the exper4se of part-‐4me older workers and the re4red is supported both by the elderly, who seek to remain ac4ve and make a
difference, and the young who can help share and apply their knowledge.
The GeneraDon Divide The perspec4ve gap grows between the expecta4ons of the young,
who are increasingly global in their outlook, and the more tradi4onal views of more senior and experienced colleagues.
The Healthcare Debt Time-‐Bomb The rising cost of healthcare results in ra4oning and the end of universal
healthcare. Individual health budgets, preven4on technology, migra4on and working longer all increase as new approaches seek to improve efficiency.
Parent Care A widening recogni4on of connec4ng across genera4ons drives deeper
awareness of social and economic benefits. Organisa4ons modify employment prac4ces: Leave for ‘parent care’ is as important as 4me-‐off for child-‐care.
Visualising Future Needs Predic4ve analysis, gene4c profiling and credit systems combine to give us
sight of our personal future care needs. We adjust behaviours; we are aware of long-‐term impacts of our ac4ons and take ownership of personal care budgets.
Welfare Reboot As increasing inequality in Europe leads to social unrest, healthcare and
welfare systems are stressed and rethought. Ideological views are replaced by pragma4c solu4ons that recognise the fundamentals for an ageing popula4on.
Living Longer -‐ Not Lonelier In some countries we shape a more connected world in which older people feel
significant and worth something. Physical solu4ons such as co-‐located care homes and crèches recreate historical connec4ons between the ageing and wider society.
Ageing in Community Individuals, families as well as healthcare payers desire to keep older
people living healthy and independent for as long as possible. This requires upgraded, intelligent housing and smart, connected infrastructure.
Caregiver Marketplaces Recogni4on of the trillion dollar informal caregiver economy drives new solu4ons aimed at educa4ng, suppor4ng and
empowering family caregivers.
Commodifying InDmacy Increasing isola4on drives adop4on of innova4ve products (such as social robots), new services and business models that help people
meet physical and emo4onal needs for connec4on.
Mainstreaming of Design for Ageing Consumer products increasingly incorporate the perspec4ve of older users into the design process – and in so doing,
make them simpler and easier to use for all.
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