国際政治基礎A 2015 class 12 lecture 10

Lecture 9, Class 10June 29th 2015

The National Interest The International

System: Part I- Social Fabric, Crisis Stability

Fundamental Concepts of International Politics

Spring 2015

Prof. H. Steven GreenToyo UniversityFaculty of Law

Leaders say their policies are “in the national interest.”

THE NATIONAL INTEREST 国益

Please talk to each other. What do you think the “national interest” is? Think of specific examples.

In fact, EVERYONE says the policies they want are “in the national interest.”

Teachers Unions Businesses, business organizations Doctors Lawyers Women’s groups Military Environmental groups Everyone else who has ever supported a particular policy


The way that national and local governments deal with the country’s domestic needs and priorities.

The Public Interest

Thinking about IP and foreign policy:What does the term “national interest”

mean ?

PLEASE DISCUSS

THE NATIONAL INTEREST & IP

The national government’s goals to achieve the country’s well-being (security and wealth) in international relations.

STRATEGIC INTERESTS: Come from the national interest and emphasize the economic and military requirements (i.e. hard power) necessary for national defense.

The National Interest

The National Interest & Domestic Politics:

•At the domestic level, the national interest refers to power resources (things that make the country wealthier.)

•At the international level, the NI refers to the foreign policy choices made by the state (based on a view of how they affect the state’s power and security.

What is the national interest? Stephen Krasner: The “objectives sought

by the state…can be called the national interest.”

State-centric view (governments decide NI)

Political (decided by politicians, bureaucrats and leaders)

THE NATIONAL INTEREST & IP

What affect states’ definition of their national interests?

Where do you think the answer comes from…?


Two views of the national interest

Realists: A state’s position in the international system

determines its national interest. Position includes both geography AND power

resources: “geo-politics” If we understand a state’s position in the

international system, we can predict its national interest.

Japan is a great power but in a “tough” neighborhood and has no natural resources.

So…

THE NATIONAL INTEREST

A realist view of Japan’s national interest

Close economic and military relationship with the Superpower (to keep balance of power in E. Asia)

Maintain peace with other great powers. (Avoid fights with China and Russia.)

Trade with China but also… Have a strong military ( 自衛隊 ) Peaceful relations with Middle Eastern nations that

produce oil (J. has almost no natural resources) Promote Japanese business overseas (protect it at

home)

JAPAN’S NATIONAL INTEREST

Two views of the national interestLiberals: National interest depends on the type of

state and culture in the society of a state.

Two different state types in similar positions will have different national interests. Look at the two Koreas


A liberal view of Japan’s national interest

(as a democratic country)

Participate in IOs, esp. ASEAN, UN, WTO Trade, including import more goods Participate with other democratic countries

to promote democracy peacefully Promote Article 9 Promote human rights


Realists expect states to promote domestic companies’ interests overseas and protect them at home.

These policies may or may not promote free trade

TRADE (realists) vs. TRADE (liberals)

Liberals believe trade is good: Trade increases wealth and quality of

living Trade reduces the security dilemma States SHOULD promote fair & free trade

for everyone States that want market access should

also GIVE access.

TRADE (realists) vs. TRADE (liberals)

Realists: Maybe (maybe not.) Depends on the final terms of the agreement. (The same rules for everyone are NOT necessary: Japan should negotiate the best deal that it can.)

Liberals: Yes (As long as everyone follows the same rules.)

What do you think?

Is TPP a good idea for Japan?

Realism and liberalism provide two theoretical views of NI. But…

These are guidelines, based on first principles.

When is it proper to use military force to pursue or protect the national interest?

Identify and Measure

Basic Interest

Intensity of interest

Survival(critical)

Vital(dangerous

)

Major(serious)

Peripheral(bothersom

e)

Defense of homeland

Economic well-being

Favorable world order

Promotion of values

Nuechterlein’s National Interest Matrix

Donald E. Nuechterlein, America Recommitted (Lexinton: UP of Kentucky, 1991)

DEFENSE OF HOMELAND

ECONOMIC WELL-BEING

FAVORABLE WORLD ORDER

PROMOTION OF VALUES

Four Basic Interests

SURVIVAL: Existence of state or its territory is threatened by imminent attack.

VITAL: Serious harm to the state will probably occur.

MAJOR: The political, economic and ideological well-being of the state may be threatened: Force may be necessary so the issue does not become vital.

PERIPHERAL: Well-being of the state is not threatened but the private interests of citizens or companies overseas are in danger.

Four Levels of Intensity

Basic Interest


Survival(critical)

Vital(dangerou

s)

Major(serious)


e)

Defense of homeland

Economic well-being


Promotion of values

Nuechterlein’s National Interest Matrix•Any issue in international politics involves at least 2 countries.•For a particular issue, the matrix is useful for understanding the intensity of each country’s basic interest.•If we understand the intensity of the basic interest of each country, then we can understand how likely the country is to go to war to protect/promote it.

Basic Interest


Survival(critical)

Vital(dangerous

)

Major(serious)


e)

Defense of homeland

Economic well-being


Promotion of values


Order of importance to any country; most (top) to least (bottom)

Perceived threat to basic interests: Left right = Most dangerous Least dangerous

1981-1986: Libya government of Muammar Quaddafi sponsored terrorist attacks (bombings, hijackings) on cruise ships, airlines and discos used by Americans

April, 1986: US President Ronald Reagan decides to bomb military targets in Libya

Case Study: US Bombing of Libya, 1986

Actors: Libya, US, UK, France, USSR US asked UK and France to help indirectly.

◦Both UK and France had experienced an increase in terrorism.

UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher allowed US to use bombers based in the UK


France did not let the US planes fly over French territory (nor did Spain) France was not pro-terrorist, or pro-Libya, but had trade and investments in Libya and North Africa.

USSR had sold military equipment to Libya and had hundreds of advisors there


Soviet advisors

leave before attack

Route taken by US planes

Countries involved Libya, US, UK, France, USSR


Country Role

Libya Attacked

US Attacker

UK US ally, cooperates with US

France US ally, but does not cooperate due to business interests in Libya, N. Africa

USSRDoes not get involved even though it had been advising Libyan military and giving military assistance

Basic Interest


Survival(critical)

Vital(dangerous

)

Major(serious)


e)

Defense of homeland Libya --

USFrance

UKUSSR

Economic well-being -- --

LibyaFranceUSSR

USUK

Favorable world order --

USUK

Libya

FranceUSSR --

Promotion of values -- Libya

USUK

FranceUSSR


INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM

The international system is anarchic but not chaotic.

Anarchy = No government above states Chaos = No order

There is order in the international system even without an international

government.

Relationships among states are regular and predictable


Why is the international system not chaotic?

The international system is social.◦ Rules for trade and conflict◦ Customs and traditions ◦ Diplomacy

WHY?


2 reasons why the international system is stable

1. “Social fabric” of international society is strong

Social fabric = social context Social fabric =

normative threads + institutional threads fabric: 織物

thread: 糸　 normative: 規範的


2 reasons why the international system is stable

Social fabric: normative threads

Every hour of every day there is communication, exchange and travel among leaders and people around the world

So, we become used to each other and generally like each other


We usually like each other.

World leaders and officials often meet.

2 reasons Why the international system is stable

Social fabric: institutional threads There are institutions where leaders

meet to talk, argue peacefully and make agreements (Today)

There are institutions for international trade (Next week)


Liberals believe that three things create world peace: democracy, trade and international

institutions.

Today we will focus on the largest international institution, the UN.

Next week we will talk about other large IOs.


International cooperation takes many forms,for example:◦ State to state (diplomacy)◦ Company to company (business)◦ NGO to NGO (shared values)◦ Person to person (friendship)

…….or any version of these There are many types of organisation that work

internationally in a great variety of ways – politically, socio-economically, culturally

These organisations use lots of acronyms! ( 頭文字 ) What are IOs, ROs, IGOs, MNCs……..?

We look first at IOs - international organisations Most important IO is the UN, the United Nations

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Cooperation across borders

Concept of the United Nations (国連の概念 )

Governments of all states are welcome to join UN General Assembly ( 国連総会 )

To preserve world peace, Security Council ( 国連安全保障理事会 ) was created with enforcement power ( 執行権力 )

Security Council has five permanent members ( 常任理事国 ) – US, Russia (Soviet Union), UK, France and China, with veto power ( 拒否権 )

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Basic structure of the United Nations

The UN has five major organs ( 機関 ) with these missions ( 使命 ) : ◦ Security Council – issues of war and peace◦ General Assembly – main decision-making organ◦ Economic and Social Council – quality of life worldwide◦ International Court of Justice (ICJ) – decides legal disputes◦ Secretariat ( 事務局 ) – executive organ, led by the Secretary-

General ( 事務総長 )

Main headquarters in New York; ICJ in The Hague, Netherlands

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U.N. Headquarters

On the east side of Manhattan Island, New York

It is an international zone belonging to all Member States.

The United Nations has its own security force, fire department and postal service.

The Headquarters consist of four main buildings◦ the General Assembly building, ◦ the Conference Building, ◦ the 39-floor Secretariat building, ◦ and the Dag Hammarskjold Library, which was added in 1961.

The General Assembly


The General Assembly is is composed of all UN member states and meets in regular yearly sessions under a president elected from among the member states.

At the start of each session all members have the opportunity to address the assembly over a two-week period.

When the General Assembly votes on important questions, a two-thirds majority of those present and voting is required.

Examples of important questions include: recommendations on peace and security; election of members to organs; admission, suspension, and expulsion of members; and, budgetary matters. All other questions are decided by majority vote.


Each member country has one vote. Apart from approval of budgetary matters, resolutions are not binding on the members.

The Assembly may make recommendations on any matters within the scope of the UN, except matters of peace and security that are under Security Council consideration.

The one state, one vote power structure theoretically allows small states to pass a resolution by a two-thirds vote.

The Security Council


The official task of the UN Security Council (UNSC) is to maintain peace and security among nations.

While other organs of the United Nations only make recommendations to member governments on peace and security issues, the UNSC has the power to make decisions that member governments must (supposedly) obey under the United Nations Charter.

The Security Council The UNSC is made up of 15 member states: Five permanent

seats and ten temporary seats. ◦ The permanent five are China, France, Russia, the United

Kingdom, and the United States (i.e., 4 Great Powers + the Superpower)

◦ These members can veto substantive but not procedural

resolutions: A permanent member can block a resolution but not block debate of it.

◦ The ten temporary seats are held for two-year terms with member states voted in by the UN General Assembly on a regional basis.

◦ The presidency of the Security Council is rotated alphabetically each month.


The decisions of the Council are known as Resolutions.

To pass, a resolution must get at least 9 votes and must not be vetoed by a permanent member. ◦For example, if the vote is 14-1 in favor, but

the 1 vote against is a permanent member, then the resolution fails.

PLEASE THINK ABOUT:

Does Japan deserve a permanent seat on the

UNSC?

United Nations Agencies◦ In contrast to League of Nations, UN does not only focus on

war and peace – it has many other functions◦ 40 UN agencies address variety of economic, educational,

health, scientific and social issues: Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) 　 ( 国連食糧農業機関 ) World Health Organisation (WHO) ( 世界保健機関 ) World Bank 　 ( 世界銀行 ) 　 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 　 ( 国際通貨基金 ) UNESCO, UNICEF, UNHCR, UNITAR…….. 　 International Civil Aviation Organisation 　 ( 国際民間航空機関 ) International Telecommunications Union 　　 ( 国際電気通信連合 ) World Meteorological Organization 　 ( 世界気象機関 )

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Criticisms of the United Nations UN has been criticised ( 批判した ) many times since 1945:

◦ People say UN is “weak, indecisive ( 決断力のない ), inefficient ( 無能 ), expensive, bureaucratic ( 官僚的 )”

◦ And worse……………. “UN is useless………….”◦ Couldn’t prevent Cold War, Vietnam War, Balkan Wars◦ Couldn’t prevent genocide ( 集団虐殺 ) in Cambodia and Rwanda

Some of these criticisms are TRUE – the UN has failed many times

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The UN and the state systemWhy has the UN failed many times?

We need to understand what the UN is, but also what it is not

UN is not world government – it is under state sovereignty

UN is not separate world power – it has no separate territory, financial resources or military forces of its own

It is a collection of the views, resources and personnel given to it by the states

Therefore: the UN is not separate fromthe state system, but a reflection of it

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What the UN can and cannot doThe UN can only solve problems that states want it to

solve

If powerful states (usually Security Council members) don’t want UN help, they can refuse it, or prevent it by using their veto◦ Cold War – Soviet Union and US used veto many times◦ Taiwan, Palestine UN membership……….? – China, US threaten veto◦ 2011-2013 Syria Crisis – Russia and China have used veto

Key UN abilities:1. UN can solve problems between less powerful states, this

is UN peacemaking

2. Through its agencies, UN can improve socio-economic, educational, medical and cultural conditions for people around the world

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Achievements of the UN Negotiated ceasefires to stop fighting:

◦ War of independence between Indonesia and Netherlands, 1948◦ Wars over Kashmir between Pakistan and India, 1948 & 1966

Oversaw ceasefires in war zones:◦ Cyprus, 1974; Namibia, 1989; Angola, 1991; Mozambique, 1993

Supervised ( 監督した ) free elections in former war zones:◦ Cambodia, 1993; El Salvador, 1994; East Timor, 2002;

Democratic Republic of Congo, 2006 Assisted reconstruction in war-torn ( 戦争に荒廃した ) countries,

this is UN nation-building:◦ Haiti, from 1993; Cambodia, from 1993; Sierra Leone, from 1998;

East Timor, from 1999; Kosovo, from 1999; Iraq, from 2003

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UN Peacekeeping UN has negotiated over 200 peace settlements around

the world:◦ Iran-Iraq War, 1988◦ Oversaw Soviet military withdrawal from Afghanistan, 1988-89

UN peacekeeping troops, “soldiers without enemies”, keeping the peace in many dangerous parts of the world:◦ Golan Heights, Syria/Israel, 1974 ~

(UNDOF – United Nations Disengagement Observation Force)◦ Kosovo, 1999 ~ (UNMIK – United Nations Mission In Kosovo)◦ Darfur, Sudan, 2007 ~ (UNAMID)

Lightly-armed troops – no tanks, warplanes Troops provided by less powerful states:

e.g. India, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Brazil

Therefore: troops are trusted by all sides

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Becoming a UN peacekeeper…..

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Current UN peacekeeping missions

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UN Peacekeeping - facts & figures

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Other functions of the UN UN is a forum for debate – rival leaders can discuss

not fight

UN can provide third-party mediation to solve conflicts

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Other important UN achievements 1

1. WHO and UNICEF campaigns to eradicate disease ( 病気を撲滅する ) Smallpox ( 天然痘 ) eradicated worldwide, 1980 Polio ( ポリオ ) eradicated in western hemisphere ( 西半球 ),

1994 Immunization against preventable diseases ( 予防接種 ) –

80% of all children worldwide by 1995

2. Famine relief ( 飢餓救済 ) provided for 230 million people in 100 countries

3. Relief for refugees - food, shelter, medical aid and education provided for millions by UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) ( 国連難民高等弁務官事務所 )

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Other important UN achievements 2

4. Conferences and treaties to tackle global warming: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

( 国連気候変動枠組条約 ), 1992 Kyoto Protocol ( 京都議定書 ), 1997

UN programmes to:

5. Prevent deforestation ( 森林伐採 ) in 90 countries6. Provide safe drinking water ( 飲料水 ) for 1.3 billion

people7. Prevent pollution and overfishing ( 乱獲 )

8. Raise women’s literacy rate ( 識字率 ) in developing countries 36% (1970) 56% (1990) 68% (2000)

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The UN is by no means a perfect organisation – it has many serious weaknesses

But it also does a great amount of good in countries all around the world

‘The United Nations was not created in order to bring us to heaven, but in order to save us from hell.’

Second Secretary-General of the United Nations, Dag Hammarskjöld (1905-1961)

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There are many connections between peoples and states and at many levels (leader-leader, office-office, school-school, etc.)

These connections prevent violent conflicts and would be very expensive and take a lot of time to repair if they were broken.


2 reasons Why the international system is stable

2. High level of crisis-stability

Crisis-stability: The ability to keep control over events in a

tense, dangerous situation and avoid war.


Low crisis-stability:

There is a strong incentive for one state to attack another state during an international crisis.

The state’s leaders believe there is a good chance to survive and to win

OR They believe they MUST be the first to attack in

order to survive.


What low crisis-stability looks like.


High crisis-stability:

There is a strong incentive for BOTH states to avoid attacking each other.

The states’ leaders believe there is a good chance that even if their attack is

successful their state (and the people in it) would be destroyed.


What high crisis-stability looks like.


Why is high crisis-stability good for the international system?

1. War is so destructive that even the winner would be destroyed. So…

2. Countries will look for peaceful solutions to conflicts.

*Read Nye’s example of the locked room full of gasoline: Whoever lights a match will destroy enemy but also himself.


The Cold War and crisis-stability.

Why was there no war between the US and the USSR?M.A.D.

Mutually Assured Destruction相互確証破壊


SEE YOU NEXT WEEK!

Creation of the United Nations What is the UN?

◦ Largest IO, with many parts, representatives from all states in the world

Why was it created?◦ After WWI the ‘League of Nations’ was created (1919-1939) to

prevent another terrible war………………… but it failed 1943 – ‘The Big Three’ (Stalin, Roosevelt & Churchill) agreed to

create new, stronger organisation to preserve world peace UN created at United Nations Conference on International

Organization, San Francisco, 25th April – 26th June 1945

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China’s Security and National Interest

Diagram of Robert Art’s argument for how force undergirds the post-war international economy. (Shows spillover effects)

China and the US military umbrella


China and the Security Dilemma in East Asia


Education

国際政治基礎A 2015 class 12 lecture 10