Health impact assessment of the traffic related Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission policies- the case study of Thessaloniki, Greece

Environmental

Engineering

Laboratory

Department of Chemical Engineering

School of Engineering

Aristotle University of Thessaoliniki

Health impact assessment of the traffic related

Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission policies- the

case study of Thessaloniki, Greece.

Dimosthenis A. Sarigiannis, Periklis Kontoroupis, Dimitirs Chapizanis, Spyros Karakitsios

Πέμπηη, 23 Μαίοσ 2013 9ο Πανελλήνιο Επιζηημονικό Σσνέδριο Χημικής Μητανικής 1

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Basic sectors and policies considered


Scenario

Economic

DrivePolicies Considered

Gross

domestic

product

METRO

Construction

Usage of

Electric CarsTechnologies Penetration in Passenger Cars (**), (***)

2010 Baseline GDP a (*) NO NO

Gasoline passenger cars: 97.6%

Diesel cars: 1.4%

Hybrid Cars: 1%

2020 BAU GDP b (*) NO NO

Gasoline passenger cars: 91%

Diesel cars: 1%

Hybrid Cars: 8%

2020 CO2 GDP b (*) YES YES

Gasoline passenger cars: 68%

Diesel cars: 22%

Hybrid Cars: 8%

Electric Cars: 2%

(*): GDP analysis, Eurobank Research

(**): Data from SIBYL Model, http://www.emisia.com/sibyl/

(***): Expert Elicitation

http://www.emisia.com/sibyl/

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1.85E+05

1.90E+05

1.95E+05

2.00E+05

2.05E+05

2.10E+05

2.15E+05

2.20E+05

2.25E+05

2.30E+05

2.35E+05

2.40E+05

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GD

P i

n m

illi

on

eu

ros

GDP projections

GDP projections

The

Economic

Drive

Source: Eurobank

Research, Economy &

Markets, August 2012

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0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

Gasoline <1,4 l Gasoline 1,4 - 2,0 l Gasoline >2,0 l Diesel <2,0 l Diesel >2,0 l Hybrid Electric

2010 Baseline

2020 BAU

2020 CO2

* Vehicle Fleet in Greece

Vehicle Fleet* Change between scenarios

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• 33% decrease: Major roads in proximity to

METRO line

(i.e: Monastiriou, Egnatia, Nea Egnatia, Delfwn)

• 44% decrease: Historic Center of Thessaloniki -

zone 1 : influences all roads (in yellow)

• 22% decrease: All roads adjacent to zone 1

(in black, dotted)

CO2 scenario: METRO

Assumption 1: Average daily distance covered:5.5km

Assumption 2: Vehicles Fleet composition remains the same

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Models

Used

• VISUM

• SIBYL

• COPERT 4

• AirGIS

• OSPM

Human exposure

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• Building Footprint and

Building Height

• Thessaloniki GIS Road

Geometry

• Hourly Variation in traffic flow

and velocity

• Hourly variation in traffic

composition per vehicle class

• Population Data per building

block

Urban Background Pollution (Eptapyrgio Station)

Metereological and Pollution

Data(Mikra, Kalamaria, AUTH, Panorama, Si

ndos, Kordelio, Neoxorouda Stations)

Data Used

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Pollution in the city

NO2 (ug/m3) Benzene (ug/m3)PM10 (ug/m3)

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Pollution in the GTA

NO2 (ug/m3) Benzene (ug/m3)PM10 (ug/m3)

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Metrics used:

• Model fit (R2)

• Fractional bias (FB)

• Geometric mean bias (MG)

• Normalized Mean Square

(NMSE)

• Geometric Variance (VG)

• Correlation coefficient (r)

• Fraction of predictions within a

factor of two observations (FAC2)


Model Validation

Station Name R2 FB MG NMSE VG FAC2 r

Martiou 71% -1.01 0.28 1.44 1.50 1.60 0.78

Egnatias 72% -0.91 0.34 1.05 1.50 1.60 0.72

Lagada 79% -0.87 0.35 0.93 1.60 1.60 0.89

Agias Sofias 77% -0.52 0.48 0.29 1.52 0.63 0.87

Kalamarias 68% -1.21 0.23 1.50 1.60 0.50 0.76

AUTH - - - - - - -

Panorama 65% -0.29 0.71 0.09 1.13 1.5 0.60

Station Name R2 FB MG NMSE VG FAC2 r

Martiou - - - - - - -

Egnatias - - - - - - -

Lagada - - - - - - -

Agias Sofias 77% -0.26 0.52 0.07 1.52 0.55 0.82

Kalamarias 88% -1.17 0.25 1.50 1.60 0.55 0.93

AUTH 76% 0.10 0.1 1.50 1.20 0.74 0.87

Panorama 71% -1.17 0.10 1.26 1.50 0.38 0.78

Validation metrics for PM10

Validation metrics for NO2

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Concentration/response functions

Relative RiskBackground rate

of diseaseAge group Reference

PM10 attributed

mortality (all

cause)

0.6%

(95% CI: 0.3%, 0.9%)

change per 10 μg/m3

PM10

8417 annual deaths /

881288 population

(EUROSTAT, 2011; WHO, 2008)

Adults aged 18

years and olderHurley F et al. 2005; IOM 2011

NO2 attributed

mortality (all

cause)

0.6%

(95% CI: 0.4%, 0.8%)

change per 10 μg/m3

NO2

8417 annual deaths /

881288 population

(EUROSTAT, 2011; WHO, 2008)

Adults aged 18

years and olderForastiere et al. 2011; WHO 2005

Inhalation unit risk

(IUR)

Benzene

induced

leukemia

4.5·10-6

(2.2·10-6 to 7.8·10-6)All Crump, 1992, 1994

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Annual number of deaths attributed to PM10

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Annual number of deaths attributed to NO2

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Annual number of deaths attributed to Benzene

Deaths

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Municipality

PM10 NO2 Benzene

2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02

Thessalonikis 500.9 508.0 469.0 626.3 629.9 555.5 10.4 10.6 7.7

Sikeon 40.9 41.2 39.6 64.5 64.9 61.1 1.0 1.1 0.9

Agiou Pavlou 8.8 8.8 8.5 12.9 12.9 12.0 0.2 0.2 0.2

Eykarpias 7.1 6.9 7.0 9.1 9.1 6.9 0.1 0.1 0.1

Ambelokipon 51.1 52.1 50.6 68.4 69.0 61.6 1.1 1.1 0.9

Kalamarias 116.2 117.2 114.5 151.8 152.8 138.1 2.5 2.5 1.9

Annual number of deaths attributed to PM10 and NO2

and leukemia lifetime expected cases due to Benzene

Health Impact in the city

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Municipality

PM10 NO2 Benzene

2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02 2010 2020-BAU 2020-C02

Thernis 10.8 10.8 10.7 14.9 15.0 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.2

Thermaikou 12.9 13.0 12.8 19.4 19.6 18.7 0.3 0.3 0.3

Stavroupolis 53.0 53.9 52.5 68.8 69.3 52.5 1.1 1.1 0.8

Pylaias 26.4 26.7 26.2 34.2 34.5 27.5 0.5 0.5 0.4

Exedorou 23.5 24.4 23.3 32.9 33.1 25.1 0.5 0.5 0.4

Evosmou 56.7 57.7 56.2 83.4 84.0 64.4 1.4 1.4 1.0

Xortiath 4.7 4.8 4.7 7.0 7.0 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Mikras 3.4 3.4 3.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Mixaniwnas 6.2 6.3 6.2 9.6 9.7 9.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

Menemenis 19.1 19.6 18.9 24.4 24.6 18.6 0.4 0.4 0.3

Panoramatos 14.6 14.7 14.5 20.6 20.8 16.1 0.3 0.3 0.2

Oraikoastrou 6.5 6.5 6.4 8.6 8.6 6.9 0.6 0.6 0.6

Neapoleos 36.1 36.0 35.6 50.8 51.0 45.9 0.8 0.9 0.6

Polixnis 32.6 32.8 32.3 46.5 46.8 36.4 0.8 0.8 0.5

Peuka 6.9 7.2 6.9 10.1 10.2 7.9 0.2 0.2 0.1

Annual number of deaths attributed to PM10 and NO2

and leukemia lifetime expected cases due to Benzene

Health Impact in the GTA

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Results


• In the 2020-CO2 scenario, the presence of the metro will reduce the PM10

pollution in the city centre.

• The penetration of diesel fuelled vehicles and hybrids will reduce the NO2 and

the benzene concentrations as compared to the 2020-BAU scenario.

• The introduction of electric vehicles has an insignificant effect due to their low

projected numbers.

• The reduction in the attributed annual number of deaths due to PM10 is

estimated at 8% for the municipality of Thessaloniki.

• The highest reduction in deaths attributed to NO2 are computed in the

municipalities of Eykarpia, Stavroupoli, Menemeni, Evosmou, Exedorou, Peykon

and Panoramatos (~25% each).

• For the lifetime expected cases due to benzene, the highest reductions are in

municipalities of Peuka, Panoramatos, Menemenis and Stavroupolis

(35%, 34%, 34% and 33% respectively).

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Conclusions


• Climate change policies for the city of Thessaloniki are investigated via an

integrated health impact assessment.

• For the scenarios, the localized effect of the city’s metro on traffic flow is added

at posteriori; changes in traffic composition (diesel, hybrid and electric

passenger cars) are implemented to the entire road network after traffic

simulation.

• Exposure assessment to PM10, NO2 and benzene is estimated via

epidemiological relationships relating pollutant concentration to health impact.

• Introduction of an underground rail system does have noticeable benefits on

near-road public health burden.

• Implementation of climate change policies under financial stress may have

unexpected negative effects on public health burden.

• Dispersion from roads and motorways across the GTA are currently modelled

using the CALPUFF model.

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Thank you


Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,


School of Engineering,

Building D, University Campus,

Thessaloniki,GR-54124, Greece

Environmental Engineering Laboratory

Director: Dimosthenis Sarigiannis,

Assoc. Professor

Phone: +30 2310 994562

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.enve-lab.eu

http://enve-lab.eu/

http://enve-lab.eu/

http://enve-lab.eu/

Education

Health impact assessment of the traffic related Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission policies- the case study of Thessaloniki, Greece