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: 15년간의 IT전쟁의 역사와 삼국쟁패론 2011.9 제 2회 엔트리브 게임컨퍼런스에서 발표한 자료로, 3개월동안 30여명의 컨퍼런스 발표자들의 프레젠테이션을 트레이닝하고 같이 준비하면서 프레젠테이션에서 가장 준비하기 까다로운 서사시 플롯을 잡아 테마와 스토리를 만든 교육적 목적의 프레젠테이션이었다.
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NtreevGameConference
IT WarfareSince 1997
NtreevGameConference
Osmos!Chapter!1.!게임의!룰
!Chapter!2.!두!개의!전장
Enterprise & Consumer
Enterprise
Enterprise Consumer
Enterprise Consumer
Enterprise Consumer
기업(법인) 개인
고객의$차이
Enterprise Consumer
PC
PC
Network
ServerStorage
DB
OSOffice S/W
Front-End
Back-End
Enterprise Consumer
느리다 빠르다
변화의$속도
Enterprise Consumer
Enterprise Consumer
Music
Phone
Book
TV
Movie
Enterprise Consumer
Apple Data Center North Carolina
-"10억달러의"설비투자
-"HP"Server
-"MS"Azure,"Amazone"AWS
Enterprise Consumer
3rd Suplier
Enterprise
Enterprise War!Chapter!3.!다섯!전쟁의!승리자들
완벽한!승리자
1. Database WAR
~1993트로이카%시대
DB2Informix
UNIX &WindowsMarket
Mainframe Market
1993~1994치열한%전투
Informix
소송
매각
메인프레임쇠퇴
1994~2000재편성
Informix
2000~2011독점적%지위
2000~2011독점적%지위
MySQL
2000~2011독점적%지위
Database%전쟁요약
✓"600억달러"시장
✓"독점적"지위"확립
✓"시장점유율"50%"육박
✓"매출"356억"달러
✓"NC반란"(1996)"실패
✓"ERP전쟁"(vs"SAP)
✓"서버전쟁"(Sun"인수)
2강!1약으로!압축된!각축전! 2. Server WAR
2002년말%상황
430억달러"규모,"2001년"500억달러에서"8%감소"
31.1% 25.2%
15.1%7.5%
2010년말%상황
488억달러"규모,"진입장벽"높음
31.4% 30.8%
14.7%6.3% 4.4%
Server%전쟁요약
✓"10년전"시장규모"유지
✓"SUN,"Compaq의"퇴출
✓"IBM-HP"양강체제"10년
✓"Dell의"꾸준한"성장
✓"Cloud가"관건
연전연승의!무결점타자 3. Network WAR
Router Hub
LAN!Card
Router
Switch
IPTelephony
Brocade
F5
Citrix
70%!market!share
Network%전쟁요약
✓"수많은"경쟁자,"일방적게임"
✓"압도적"점유율"70%
✓"600억달러의"시장
✓"서버시장"노크중
거인들!사이에서!살아남다
4. Storage WAR
2010 Revenue
Market Share
1 EMC 5,441 25.6%
2 IBM 2,922 13.8%
3 NetApp 2,352 11.1%
4 HP 2,352 11.1%
5 Dell 1,926 9.1%
OthersOthers 6,229 29.3%
21,222
Storage%전쟁요약
✓"꾸준히"시장을"지배
✓"212억달러의"규모
✓"2위와"두배격차
✓"많은"경쟁자
✓"서버"거인들의"참여
기나!긴!전쟁,!상처뿐인!영광
5. PC WAR
199610%
8.6%
6.0%
5.9%
5.1%
70.9million
199713.1%
8.6%
5.5%
5.3%
5.1%
80.6million
199813.8%
8.2%
7.9%
5.8%
4.3%
92.9million
199913.2%
9.8%
7.9%
6.4%
5.2%
113.5million
200012.8%
10.8%
7.6%
6.8%
4.3%
134.7million
200113.1%
11.1%
7.2%
6.4%
3.8%
128.1million
200216.2%
15.2%
6.0%
3.4%
3.2%
132.4million
200315.0%
14.3%
5.1%
3.8%
2.9%
168.9million
200416.4%
14.6%
5.5%
3.8%
3.4%
189.0million
200516.8%
14.5%
6.9%
4.6%
3.8%
218.5million
200615.9%
15.9%
7.0%
5.8%
3.8%
239.4million
200718.2%
14.3%
8.9%
7.4%
4.0%
271.2million
200818.4%
14.3%
11.1%
7.2%
4.5%
302.2million
200919.3%
13.0%
12.2%
8.1%
5.1%
305.9million
201017.9%
12.9%
12.0%
9.7%
5.4%
325million
PC%전쟁의%중요변수
HP의$PC사업부$분사
iPad의$급속한$PC$시장잠식
Post$PC$Issue
시장규모%비교
$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400
(2010년기준)
PC Network DB Server Storage
PC%전쟁요약
✓"96년부터"4배성장
✓"1400억"달러"규모
✓"가장"많은"경쟁자포진
✓"거인들의"이탈
✓"Post"PC"이슈
$432$615$999$1,260$356
$170
$699 $652
$292
$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400
PC Network DB Server Storage
$432
$999$1,260
$356 $170
$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400
PC Network DB Server Storage
$432
$999$1,260
$356 $170
$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400
PC Network DB Server Storage
$432
$999$1,260
$356 $170
$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400
PC Network DB Server Storage
$432
$999$1,260
$356 $170
$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400
PC Network DB Server Storage
$432
$999$1,260
$356 $170
$1,400억 $600 $212$600 $400
PC Network DB Server Storage
$432
$999$1,260
$356 $170
Enterprise War
Hardware
Software
Service������
�������
�������
Enterprise War Consumer War
Enterprise War Consumer War
Enterprise War Consumer War
!Chapter!4.!제국의!형성
1984 ~1997확실한%두개의%무기
WindowsMS Office
OS%전쟁%:일방적%학살
Win9569.7%
MS-DOS10.1%
Win%NT9.2%
����� ����
��������
������
89%
압도적점유율
(1997년%기준)
Word%전쟁%:%비열한전투
0
25
50
75
100
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
WordPerfect Word for DOS Word for Win WP for Win
Win 3.0 Win 95(%)
Excel%전쟁%:%비열한전투%2
0
20
40
60
80
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Lotus 1-2-3 Quattro Excel
Win 3.0 Win 95
Windows
Office
89%
94%
Market Share
200
400
600
800
1,0001997
$119
200
400
600
800
1,0001997
$11942%
49%
9%
Windows
Office
others
새로운%컴퓨팅%이데올로기
Server%Based!Computing
ClientServer%
Server$
Server%Based!Computing
Client$
App!:!O
Data!:!O
�����861�KS��,��Z �#N�+
Server$
Client/Server%
Client$
App!:!O
Data!:!O
DG����861W��>P�
�"���L=�DQ��M
Data!:!O
남은숙제와%새로운전쟁
✓$Windows/Office$주도권✓$반독점소송✓$브라우저$전쟁$vs$Netscape✓$새로운$수익원$:$서버부문✓$네트워크$컴퓨팅$진압$
이$즈음$재등장한$인물이$있었으니...$
Steve Jobs
VS
총체적%난국뉴튼의"실패,"라이센싱"정책
Win
D-�/.RD�E����� (Z-
��H��J ���
�@���
���;�#�TFY2
!Chapter!5.!권토중래
iMac으로%기적적%생환
1998
$119
$71
(단위:억달러)
42%49%
9%
64%17%
20%
OfficeWindows
DesktopPortable
Software
1997
40%
48%
11%
$119
$71
(단위:억달러)
OfficeWindows
1997 1998
$153
$59
66%15%
18%
DesktopPortable
Software
45%46%
9%
$119
$71
(단위:억달러)
OfficeWindows
1997 1998
$153
$59
69%14%
17%
DesktopPortable
Software$61
1999
$197
33%
41%
18%7%
$119
$71
(단위:억달러)
Office
Windows
1997 1998
$153
$5964%
22%
14%
DesktopPortable
Software
$61
1999
$197
2000
$79
$229
Server
iMac%제외하곤%신통찮은%성적
2001
33%
39%
20%8%
$119
$71
(단위:억달러)
Office
Windows
1997 1998
$153
$5952%
30%
18%Desktop
Portable
Software
$61
1999
$197
2000
$79
$229
Server
2001
$252
$53
2001중대한%전환점
2001두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다
Windows
Office
X-Box
ServerWindows DNAWindows 2000SQL ServerExchange ServerVisual Studio
2001두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다
Windows
Office
Browser$전쟁$승리
Windows$XP
85%%점유율
역대%최고%버전
iPod 2001
iTunes
Mac$OS$X‘Cheetah’
33%
39%
20%8%
(단위:억달러)
Office
Windows
52%30%
18%Desktop
Portable
Software
Server
$119
$71
1997 1998
$153
$59 $61
1999
$197
2000
$79
$229
2001
$252
$53
33%
39%
20%8%
(단위:억달러)
Office
Windows
52%30%
18%Desktop
Portable
Software
Server
2000
$79
$229
2001
$252
$53
(단위:억달러)2000
$79
$229
2001
$252
$53
34%
34%
19%
13%
(단위:억달러)
49%30%
21%
2000
$79
$229
2001
$252
$53
Office
Windows
Desktop
Portable
iPod
Server
X-Box
2002
$283
$57
Consumer Market
PC War주변기기
Software
Consumer Market
PC War주변기기
Software
MP3 Player(Audio)의외의%행보
그러나%완벽히%맞아%떨어진%작전
49%30%
21%
Desktop
2002
Portable
iPod
.MacMobileMe의$전신
:%57억불
39%
33%
10%
6%
1%11%
Desktop
2003
Portable
iPodMusic$Store
Safari
iLife
Music
S/W
Hardware
:%62억불
반격의%움직임...
29%
31%10%
16%
3%11%
Desktop
2004
Portable
iPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
:%82억불
I4VN�7��
H10
iPod%nano
25%
20%
8%
33%
6% 8%Desktop
2005
Portable
iPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
:%139억불
iPod%nano
25%
20%
8%
33%
6% 8%Desktop
2005
Portable
iPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
:%139억불
iWorks
17%
21%
7%
40%
10% 6% Desktop
2006
Portable
iPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
:%193억불
Intel$MacMacbook
Zune
Windows mobile
iPhoneiPod touch
2007
2007
IT역사의%큰%획을%그은%해
Desktop
Portable
iPod
iPhone
iPad
AppleTV
Music
Movie
Drama
Book PodcastCloud
MailCalendar
Contacts Photo
iWork
iLife
App StoreMac App Store
Pro App
Mac OS
iOS
GameCenter
Safari
OS
Hardware
ContentsService
Software
OS
Hardware
ContentsService
Software
애플%생태계
OS
Service
Hardware
Software
Contents
공급자사용자
개발자
Client Server
이데올로기
App Data Data
App DataWEB
이데올로기,%생태계%전쟁으로%몰고감
17%
26%
6%
35%
1%10%
5% Desktop
2007
PortableiPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
:%240억불
iPhone
15%
23%
6%24%
18%
9%5%
2008 :%374억불
Desktop
PortableiPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
iPhone
2009
S/W
:%429억불
10%
22%
6%19%
30%
9%3% Desktop
Portable
iPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
iPhone
2010
S/W
:%652억불
S/W
10%
17%
4%
13%39%
8%3%8% Desktop
Portable
iPod
Music
S/W
Hardware
iPhone
iPad
2011 :%1,003억불
S/WS/W
6%13%
3%
8%
45%
6%2%
17%Desktop
Portable
iPod
Music S/W
Hardware
iPhone
iPad
!Chapter!6.!거대한!계획
태생적으로%%WEB%원리주의자
�����
1998
�����
1998 2002
���� �����
�����
1998 2002
���� �����
매출"4억$
"57억$
"283억$
�����
1998
�����
1998 2003
Ad"Sense
수익모델"확보
�����
1998 2003
Ad"Sense
수익모델"확보
2004
주식공모
천문학적인"자금조달
�����
1998
2004
picasabloger
�����
1998
2004
picasabloger
2005
Maps
�����
1998
2004
picasabloger
2005
Maps
2006
GmailCalendarYoutube
�����
1998
2004
picasabloger
2005
Maps
2006
GmailCalendarYoutube
2007
Docsdoubleclick
�����
1998 2007
2008
2009
9�6���C$���='�:>*�+��X�3�E:
B�U?<:A&%��O��:�!�
05�)��U?<:
Client Server
이데올로기
App Data Data
App DataWEB
그러나$안드로이드,
애플의$모델을$따라가다$
Client Server
이데올로기%혼란
App Data Data
App Data
~2003
~2007
~2009
~2011
$Chapter$7.$최후의$승리자는?
•엔터프라이즈$시장에$깊은$뿌리
•제품$다양성$확보$2➔4개$부문
•5배$성장$(119억$$➔$624억$)
•Music,$Mobile$실패로$밀리는$양상
•노림수$:$Windows$8
1997$~$2010
1997$~$2010
•생태계의$띠$완성단계$:$시너지
•주체$못할$성장$(70억$$➔$652억$)
•iCloud$성공여부가$변수
•추가$노림수$:$$Apple$TV
1997$~$2010
•막강한$컨텐츠와$서비스$역량
•All$Cloud$완성시$All$Kill까지$가능
•수익모델$확보$(0$$➔$293억$)
•떠나는$연합군$:$Motolora$인수여파
•Adroid,$Chrome$OS$연계$?
OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App
경쟁의%자격
OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App
경쟁의%자격
OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App
경쟁의%자격
OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App
경쟁의%자격
OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App
경쟁의%자격
OS H/W 서비스 컨텐츠App
경쟁의%자격
•확실한$컨텐츠
•저가형$타블렛$or$킨들
•Cloud$Service$Platform
그럼%나머지%회사들은?
전쟁의%양상
Client$Based Server$Based
제1전역제2전역
제%1%전역$Client$와$Server$양$진영의$
이데올로기$전쟁
구글$입장에서$
바라본$승리의$요건
목표$:$값싸게$대량보급$하여$
구글을$쉽게$이용하게$하는$것
대량보급의$전제조건
저사양,$최소한의$스토리지
최소$App과$Chrome$탑재
Cloud+WEB%App
그러기$위해선...
무제한$데이타$요금제
무료$Wi-Fi$구축에$지대한$관심
쉽.지.않.은.문.제
Mobile:App$Base
Desktop:WEB$Base
Chroms OS Adroid
유저경험의%부조화
TouchPad
$99
HP로부터의%교훈안드로이드$너무$비싸
WEB%App의%완성도아직$갈길이$남았다
Office$대항마
touch$I/F$고려
차세대$WEB기술
모토롤라%인수여파우군이$떠나고$있다
대량보급이$필요한$시점,
우군$상실은$뼈아픔
종합평가
•높은$안드로이드$가격
•유저경험$부조화
•App$완성도
•모토롤라$인수여파
본격"전쟁에"나서기"약간"이른"느낌
B-
전쟁의%양상
Client$Based Server$Based
제1전역제2전역
또%다른%경쟁
�
�
Client$Based
�애플의%MS공략법
Microsoft의$근본을$흔드는$것$
Core에%대한%공세Office$+$Windows
왜%MS에%밀렸었나%?
“소프트웨어가$없어”
“호환성이$문제야”
지금은%상황이%다름
이제$앱은$애플의$최대강점
호환성$문제,$거의$사라짐
애플의%최대숙제
App$Store의$앱과$개발자들을
Mac$OS내로$끌어들이는$것
Keynote$:iPhone,"iPad,"Mac""
기기에"특화된"버전으로"상호작용
iWorks
iLife
애플의%소프트웨어%라인업
iPad
iPad%+%iWorks
iPad$:$PC$성장세에$영향
iWork$:$Office에$필적Numbers의"성장이"필수
종합평가
•풍부한$App
•App의$Mac$OS$유입
•iWorks
3사중"가장"유리한"위치
A
또%다른%경쟁
�
�
Client$Based
두%가지%고민
✓%Apple%보다%앞서%OS통합✓%Hardware를%가져야%하나?
Windows%8
인수합병시$구글처럼
우군이탈$가능성
✓$Hardware를$가져야$하나?
종합평가
•풍부한$App
•App의$Mac$OS$유입
•iWorks
사용할"수"있는"카드가"많지"않음
B
B B-A
최종%승리의%가능성
만약%패배한다면
iOS가"밀린다면"1997년"
최초"시작모드로"돌아갈"것
Windows+Office"결계가"
깨진다해도"오래"버틸듯
검색과"온라인"서비스"부문
만으로"물러나"앉을"것
소비자가%바라는%것
‘3자%균형’✓"경쟁이"발전을"촉발✓"취향에"따라"다양한"선택"
Win"8로"개성을"
유지하며"버텨줄것
Pure"SVC의"모습
으로"돌아가길잡스나"건강하길
IT Warfare의"IT삼국지
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