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ASOCIACIÓN DE FÁBRICAS ARGENTINAS DE COMPONENTES
INVESTMENT IN AUTOPARTS IN ARGENTINA
June 2011
Viamonte 1167, 2do. piso. Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA
Tel. +54 11 4375-0516 Fax +54 11 4814-3434
E-mail: [email protected]
www.afac.org.ar
LEADING INDICATORS
Source: AFAC.
2010Number of auto components companies 400Direct Employment (P) 60.378Share in the industrial employment % 5,2%Sales (millons U$S) (P) 5.920Share in GDP % 0,5%Share in industrial GDP % 3,3%Exports FOB (millons U$S) 2.422Share in industrial exports % 10,2%Notes: (P): Proyected
THE SLOPE OF THE PRODUCTION FROM 2008-2009 WAS THE HIGHEST RECORDED AFTER A CRISIS
Fuente: ABECEB.COM.
2010716.540
Monthly and annualized production. Units Vs 2009: +39,7%vs 2008: +20,0%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
19961997 1998 1999 20002001 2001 2002 20032004 2005 20062006 2007 2008 200920100
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Monthly production (Ieft)
Annual production (right)
Polinomic monthly Production (left)
VEHICLE PRODUCTION IN 2010 WAS ALSO A RECORD FOR MOST OFTHE AUTOMOTIVE COMPANIES
Fuente: ABECEB.COM
Vehicle production by makers. Units
22,5
%
20,4
%
17,2
%
12,6
%
11,7
%
8,6
%
3,7
%
1,7
%
1,5
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
GM
PSA VW
Renau
lt
For
d
Fia
t
Toy
ota
MB
Iveco
Car segment A, B48,7%
Pick Ups29,2%
Car segment D, E11,7%
Commercials7,1%
Others3,4%
Less than 4 ayears77,4%
More than 4 years22,6%
Share of production of vehicles by maker, segment and age
Production ShareVar %.
10 vs. 09Var %
10 vs. 08Maximun (year)
General Motors 127.818 17,8% 55,9% 14,2% 127.818 2010PSA 126.968 17,7% 48,6% -3,7% 131.791 2008Ford 96.454 13,5% 32,9% 15,3% 96.454 2010Fiat 96.059 13,4% 22,3% 234,7% 96.059 2010Renault 91.222 12,7% 39,3% 24,4% 91.222 2010Volwagen 87.073 12,2% 67,3% 37,9% 87.073 2010Toyota 70.032 9,8% 12,0% 8,5% 70.032 2010Mercedes Benz 16.461 2,3% 26,4% -49,8% 26.108 2007Iveco 4.453 0,6% 239,7% -38,0% 7.179 2008TOTAL 716.540 39,7% 20,0%
2011 GROWTH PROSPECTS 17,3% VS 2010
Source: ABECEB.COM
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
90.000
ene feb mar abr may jun jul ago sep oct nov dic
2008 2009 2010 2011
Vehicle production. Units
4M2011 vs 4M2010+27,8%
-1,2%
0,4%
1,2%
2,4%
3,2%
3,6%
7,2%
23,2%
26,9%
33,0%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Ford
Iveco
Mercedes Benz
Toyota
Honda
General Motors
Fiat
Renault
PSA
Volkswagen
Contributions to the estimated growthin 2011 by company ( %)2011
864.600(+20,7%)
Increased production prospects are based on the expected demand pull and the major launching of new models : This year, Fiat has announced the second shift of production, jumping from 400 cars per day to 650. Mercedes Benz will also beguin a second shift of production from August (Sprinter, bus chassis and the new truck.)PSA began in March the production of 408 and Renault will go into full production regime of Fluence and will add a new production shift this year. Volkswagen Pick-up will also come into full production in 2011 an exports will increase by 77% between 2011 and 2012.
In March Honda began production of the City model in its plant in Campana.
Production recovers from the crisis in 2009 using idle
capacity, optimizing working shifts and
increasing productivity.
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012p 2013p
Capacidad instalada
Producción
INSTALLED CAPACITY
54%58%
50%
67%69% 75% 80%
Installed capacity in the automotive industry. Industry and companies. %
Last year, that process began to
show signs of exhaustion and some makers
announced by the end of the year the addition of
new production shifts (Fiat, Renault).
In 2011 it becomes necessary
to increase the installed capacity, especially in some
companies (Toyota, GM)
47%
55%
56%
58%
60%
67%
67%
82%
100%
40% 60% 80% 100%
MB
Ford
Iveco
Renault
VW
Fiat
PSA
GM
ToyotaInstalled capacity
Production
STRONG GROWTH OF DOMESTIC AUTO SALES
The growth of domestic demand in 2010 had its main support in:•Strong growth of economic activity (+8.9%)•Postponed consumption trailing from the 2008-2009 crisis•The few investment opportunities that existed last year to preserve the value of money•A significant recovery in financial instruments involving the purchase of vehicles (sales financing peaked in 2010: 36.3%)
2010662.576
Vs 2009: +28,7%vs 2008: +8,5%
Registrations. Monthly and annualized. Units
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1996199619971998 1999200020012001 20022003200420052006 20062007200820090
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Monthly registrations (left)
Annualized registrations (right)
Polinomic monthly registrations
1998446.710
200295.283
2008610.778
Source of growth by segment, brand and model (in % 4m2011-4m2010)
1,2%
1,3%
1,5%
1,5%
1,6%
1,6%
2,1%
2,2%
5,0%
5,0%
5,9%
10,6%
12,5%
13,7%
16,6%
17,7%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Resto
Dodge
Honda
Iveco
Chery
Toyota
Mercedes Benz
Hyundai
Fiat
Citroen
Nissan
Chevrolet
Ford
Peugeot
Renault
Volkswagen
2,8%2,9%
3,4%3,6%
4,2%4,5%4,5%
4,9%5,6%5,8%5,9%
7,8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Chevrolet CORSAFord FOCUS II
Renault LOGANRenault SANDEROVolkswagen BORAPeugeot PARTNER
Chevrolet AVEOPeugeot 207Renault CLIO
Ford ECOSPORTVolkswagen FOX
Volkswagen AMAROK
New models:Fiat Uno 2010 Chevrolet MontanaFord Fiesta Kinetic Chery QQRenault Fluence Renault Megane IIIPeugeot 408 Audi A1Chevrolet Cruze Citroën DS3Nissan Sentra Ford Transit
Gama Baja Gama Media Com. Liv. Monovol. SUV Resto
Var. 4M2011 / 4M201062.887units
44,1% 19,6% 15,6% 8,4% 4,9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
71,1% of registrations
56%Of the growth
Source: abeceb.com and ACARA
REGISTRATIONS
Segment C, D, E Segment B Lights Comm. MPV-C Suv Others
1998237.497
2003108.158
2008351.092
2010447.953
-58,6%
+256,9%
2009322.495
Vs 2009: +38,9%Vs 2008: +27,6%
Record sales in Brazil and Argentina increased participation in vehicles in that market vehicles joined with the recovery in other places to achieve a rise of almost 39%
over 2009 and 27.6% over the previous maximum 2008
199998.362
-8,1%
EXPORT OF VEHICLES MONTHLY AND ANNUALIZED. UNITS
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
Monthly Exports (left)
Annualized exports (right)
Polinomic monthly exports (left)
AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTION DESTINATION. 2010
Brazil growth quantitatively
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
2008 2009 2010
A RM A Brasil
71%88% 85%
29% 12%
15%
IVECO
MB
TOYOTA
VW
RENAULT
FIAT
FORD
PSA
GM
Exportaciones Mercado interno
62% 38%
48% 52%
72% 28%
83% 17%
53% 47%
56% 44%
70% 30%
70% 30%
15% 85%
127.818
126.968
96.454
96.059
91.222
87.072
70.032
16.461
4.453
2008 20101 16,4% 17,7%3 36,5% 43,7%5 53,5% 59,3%10 83,6% 87,0%15 94,8% 98,1%25 100,0% 100,0%
Antigüedad
(meses) 83 58
ConcentraciónQ(Modelos)
Quantity of exported models and accumulated concentration of the exports . %
There are also a concentration in exported models
80
16
66
110
20
40
60
80
100
Cant. Total de destinos Destinos signif.(> 1000 unid.)
2008
2010
The number of destinations to which vehicles are sent in 2010 are hightly concentrated compared with 2008
Export destination
Export Domestic market
Destinations Important destinations (> 1000 units)
MAIN DESTINATION OF EXPORTS OF VEHICLES. 2010. (Units)
8.557
29.361
39.337
19.474
40.813
49.740
42.244
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
ene-
09
feb-
09
mar
-09
abr-
09
may
-09
jun-
09
jul-0
9
ago-
09
sep-
09
oct-
09
nov-
09
dic-
09
ene-
10
feb-
10
mar
-10
abr-
10
may
-10
jun-
10
jul-1
0
ago-
10
sep-
10
oct-
10
nov-
10
dic-
10
ene-
11
feb-
11
mar
-11
abr-
11
More than 1.000 units. 2010). Units.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Brasil 112.658 196.467 250.683 285.089 378.865 32,9%
Exportaciones crecientesAlemania 6 747 1.817 676 11.641 1622,0%Uruguay 4.726 5.114 5.723 5.636 9.202 63,3%Venezuela 8.858 19.201 5.931 696 4.983 615,9%Paraguay 1.285 2.142 2.680 1.297 2.585 99,3%Peru 3.729 4.329 1.821 422 1.580 274,4%Vietman 864 1.488 1.788 1.248 1.104 -11,5%
Exportaciones decrecientesMexico 52.680 40.152 39.662 17.482 24.209 38,5%Chile 21.666 16.100 12.959 2.223 4.926 121,6%Colombia 3.104 2.659 1.688 2.502 3.738 49,4%Ecuador 1.405 1.144 620 149 1.354 808,7%
Resto 25.808 26.867 25.720 5.075 3.766 -25,8%
TOTAL 236.789 316.410 351.092 322.495 447.953 38,9%
211,7%
53,1%
Var 2010 vs 2009
Among the countries for which Argentina has been gaining share in recent years, highlights the growth of Germany (almost exclusively by Amarok), Venezuela (who returned to demandvehicles, but not yet solved the problem of access to foreign exchange) Paraguay and Peru.This group grew by 211.7% in 2010 compared to 2009
On the other hand, it also important the growth in Chile and Ecuador in 2010, but in a context where the participation of Argentina as a suppler is in decline in recent years
This is due mainly, to the trade agreements between the Andean countries with East Asian countries.
In the first four months of 2011 exports totaled 142,773 units(+32,4%).
The fall in the graph corresponds to the normal seasonality of the series.
Monthly vehicles exports
FOREIGN TRADE OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
SOURCE: ABECEB.COM
Foreign trade of the automotive industry. Vehícles and parts. Millons US$
Trade balance of the industry. Vehicles and parts . Millons US$
Imports grew due to strong demand for vehicles, but mainly by thedemand for auto parts
In fact, the sector's trade deficit can be explained solely by the balance in auto parts
370,6 -151,11.272,5 1.018,2
1.730,2
-4.111,8-5.355,4
-3.724,1
-6.817,5-7.840,0
-10.000
-8.000
-6.000
-4.000
-2.000
0
2.000
4.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 e
Vehículos
Autopartes
-2.2
31,3
-543
,8
-419
,7
-2.2
97,8
-5.4
09,5
-2.4
51,7
-5.7
99,3
-6.1
08
2.334,6 2.753,1 2.091,1 3.755,0
7.472,9
6.276,1
9.005,1
10.930
4.566,0 3.296,9 2.510,8
6.052,7
12.882,4
8.727,7
14.804,417.038
-10.000
-5.000
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
e
Saldo Expo Impo
-6.309
Balance Expo Impo
-8.000-7.000-6.000-5.000-4.000-3.000-2.000-1.000
0
2000 2004 2006 2009 2010
IMPORT AUTO PARTS IN AUGUST 2010 REACHED THE HISTORICAL RECORD
Trade balance in parts. Millons US$ In August import of parts recorded the record: U.S. $883.9 MM
Trade balance in auto parts, share of vehicles makers. Millones US$
-1.837,4 -1.297,6
-2.855,8-3.724,1
60,6% 87,0%73,9% 75,8% 64,6%
-6.309
-1.000-800-600-400-200
0200400600800
1.0001.200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Trade balance
Imports
Exports
Realizadas por terminales
Realized by other companiesAnd by vehivle makers indirectly
Realized by vehicle makers
TRADE BALANCE OF AUTO PARTS
millons U$S (exports FOB, Imports CIF)
Exports Imports
U$S mill. FOB U$S mill. CIF
1995 773 2.170 -1.397
1996 895 2.799 -1.904
1997 1.118 3.999 -2.880
1998 1.081 4.007 -2.926
1999 1.240 2.978 -1.738
2000 1.367 3.204 -1.837
2001 1.241 2.416 -1.176
2002 1.144 1.216 -72
2003 1.192 1.752 -561
2004 1.537 2.834 -1.298
2005 1.763 3.676 -1.914
2006 1.936 4.816 -2.879
2007 2.268 6.387 -4.120
2008 2.557 7.928 -5.370
2009 1.928 5.496 -3.568
2010 2.422 8.731 -6.309
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC.
PeríodTrade balance
U$S mill.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMPORTS AND AUTO PARTSVEHICLE PRODUCTION
Source: AFAC
PRODUCTION OF VEHICLES AND IMPORT OF AUTO PARTS, 1995-2010
0100.000200.000
300.000400.000500.000600.000
700.000800.000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Pro
d -
un
its
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
Imp
ort
of
par
ts -
mil
lio
ns
U$S
Production Import of auto parts
AUTO PARTS EXPORTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY
Parts FOB U$S 2010 Part. % 2009 Var. % 10/09
Brazil 1.576.884.960,5 65,1% 1.234.625.612,6 27,7%
USA 141.173.732,2 5,8% 124.885.598,0 13,0%
Mexico 118.351.965,0 4,9% 80.876.286,7 46,3%
Chile 87.202.941,7 3,6% 64.827.579,1 34,5%
Venezuela 86.392.756,8 3,6% 78.602.156,5 9,9%
Spain 63.628.315,2 2,6% 44.251.157,9 43,8%
Germany 57.435.228,9 2,4% 48.368.096,5 18,7%
Uruguay 53.385.164,3 2,2% 43.733.394,8 22,1%
France 35.393.888,4 1,5% 26.019.599,1 36,0%
Paraguay 31.818.554,6 1,3% 24.110.163,3 32,0%
Colombia 21.228.445,3 0,9% 15.435.997,5 37,5%
Italy 17.309.541,8 0,7% 17.446.617,0 -0,8%
Bolivia 15.334.911,1 0,6% 17.387.663,1 -11,8%
Tchek Republik 14.986.364,3 0,6% 6.131.270,7 144,4%
Peru 14.943.983,4 0,6% 17.743.378,0 -15,8%
Southafrica 14.776.426,6 0,6% 7.529.643,7 96,2%
China 8.018.725,7 0,3% 4.709.624,6 70,3%
Ecuador 5.411.435,0 0,2% 3.536.747,1 53,0%
Canada 5.240.216,1 0,2% 5.016.059,5 4,5%
Belgium 4.809.650,7 0,2% 5.266.953,6 -8,7%
Rest of the world 48.086.291,0 2,0% 57.301.240,3 -16,1%
Total 2.421.813.499 100% 1.927.804.839 25,6%
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC.
AUTOPARTS EXPORTS, by components
Forge and cast0%
Other rubber autoparts
1%Other autoparts
1%
Other metal autopartsl
1%
Other plastics autoparts
3%
Interior Equipment
3%Shock
absorbers, steering and suspensions
5%
Engines5%
Electric pieces7%
Wheels and pneumatics
10%
Body and parts10%
Engine components
13%
Transmissions40%
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC
AUTO PARTS IMPORTS BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
Country U$S CIF 2010 Share % Ac share % 2009 Var. % 10/09
Brazil 4.243.339.552 48,6% 48,6% 2.616.585.750 62%
Germany 735.307.123 8,4% 57,0% 354.091.255 108%
China 505.865.351 5,8% 62,8% 264.772.041 91%
USA 446.649.877 5,1% 67,9% 349.793.709 28%
J apan 386.518.547 4,4% 72,4% 298.088.477 30%
France 352.472.503 4,0% 76,4% 241.350.267 46%
Spain 264.355.188 3,0% 79,4% 168.868.483 57%
Thailand 259.065.354 3,0% 82,4% 195.146.757 33%
Italy 202.533.279 2,3% 84,7% 107.062.212 89%
Mexico 126.270.971 1,4% 86,2% 75.018.712 68%
Uruguay 105.389.838 1,2% 87,4% 70.573.048 49%
Korea 70.950.793 0,8% 88,2% 26.472.026 168%
Tchek Republik 64.660.957 0,7% 88,9% 30.406.046 113%
Turkey 61.438.725 0,7% 89,6% 40.344.713 52%
Chile 59.589.686 0,7% 90,3% 43.613.203 37%
United Kingdom 51.621.538 0,6% 90,9% 40.401.230 28%
India 43.963.304 0,5% 91,4% 21.917.684 101%
Poland 42.812.391 0,5% 91,9% 16.439.494 160%
Taiwan 33.608.999 0,4% 92,3% 23.221.392 45%
Canada 31.528.215 0,4% 92,6% 20.900.731 51%
Rest of the world 642.600.604 7,4% 100,0% 490.516.585 31%
Total 8.730.542.795 100,0% 5.495.583.815
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC.
AUTOPARTS IMPORTS, by components
Other metal autoparts
1%
Air conditioner systems,
heating and parts 2%
Otrher autoparts
2%Other plastic
parts3%
Breaks3%
Shock absorbers,
steering and suspentions
4%
Interior equipment
6%
Wheels and pneumatics
7%Engines
11%Body and parts
11%Electric pieces
12%
Engine parts12%
Transmission23%
Source: abeceb.com and INDEC
GROWTH OF IMPORTS OF AUTO PARTS 2010 VS 2009
Source: AFAC, abeceb.com and INDEC
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%
Air co
nditio
ns sy
ste.
..
Engin
es
Inte
rior e
quipm
ent
Whe
els a
nd p
neum
a...
Forg
e an
d ca
st
Buffe
rs, s
tere
ering
... To
tal
Other
s rub
bers
aut
o...
Tran
smiss
ion
Electri
c sy
stem
s
Brake
s
Other
s plas
tic a
utop
...
Other
s met
als a
utop
...
body
and
par
ts
Other
s
Vehicl
e fa
brica
tion
AUTO PARTS TRADE DEFICIT BY CATEGORY %
Share %
-1,2%
-1,4%
-2,1%
-2,4%
-2,5%
-2,7%
-2,9%
-3,0%
-5,5%
-10,1%
-11,5%
-12,2%
-13,0%
-13,4%
-16,1%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
TransmissionInterior equipmentElectric equipmentEnginesParts of enginesBodys and partsWheels, pneumaticsBrakesBuffers, steerings and suspentionsAir conditioning systems, hesting and partsOther partsPlastic partsForge and castRubber partsMetal parts
EXAMPLES OS INVESTMENT NEEDED AUTO PARTS
Airbags and pyrotechnic pre-tensioning seat belts.Air conditioning compressor."Green" tiresElectronic Componentized (terminals, connectors).Flywheel.Braking system and its componentsAluminum tubes of air conditioning.Command lights.Air conditioningBelts.Shafts.Adjustable steering column and collapsible.Hotkeys winder (micro switches).Precision Forging.ABS Instrument panelClutches
Power steering pump.
Steering box.
Locks.
Set level and submerged fuel pump.
Clutch discs.
Foundry.
Ignition key.
Electric motors.
Brake pads.
Electronic sensors and dusk, rain, back.
Engine injection system (pump,
injectors, pipes, electronics).
Door lock systems.
Fuel tank cap.
Hubcaps
Tube filled fuel tank (plastic piece blown).
Nylon fuel pipes trilayer
ARGENTINA: SCENARIOS FOR 2011
Proyected variables of the automotive industry in Argentina. Units
Made in Argentina 12% 13% 12% 13%
40% 837.732 856.194 845.076 863.844 38% 822.228 840.690 829.572 848.340 40% 829.572 848.034 836.916 855.684 38% 814.476 832.938 821.820 840.588 40% 821.412 839.874 828.756 847.524 38% 806.724 825.186 814.068 832.836
720000ARG
ENTI
NA
2011
Registrations
760000
740000
3.620.000 3.680.000BRASIL 2011
432,1544,6 597,1
512,9
716,5864,6
950,11.037,51.128,7
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (e)
2012 (p)
2013 (p)
2014 (p)
109,7 139,0 179,1 108,8 181,5231,9
322,5405,7
418,0404,1
535,0632,7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (e)
Resto del año
4 meses
Vehicles production in Argentina. Medium term proyections. Units
Vehicles production. Thousands units
Monthly average in
order to reach 864,6
thousands vehicles in 2011
70 mil u
PROYECTION OF THE MAN VARIABLES OF THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY IN ARGENTINA
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(p)Production 432.101 544.647 597.086 512.924 716.540 840.600 Sales 460.478 564.926 610.782 514.923 662.591 740.000 National 188.479 234.354 238.465 206.999 250.724 281.200 Imported 271.999 330.572 372.317 307.924 411.867 458.800 Exports 236.789 316.410 351.092 322.495 447.953 550.000 Expo/Prod. 54,8% 58,1% 58,8% 62,9% 62,5% 65,5%Nat./Prod. 43,6% 43,0% 39,9% 40,4% 35,0% 33,5%Nat./Sales 40,9% 41,5% 39,0% 40,2% 37,8% 38,0%
PROYECTIONS
The automotive industry has a medium-term growth perspective.
External demand will keep rising due to growing domestic market in Brazil and the recovery of other foreign markets (especially Latinamerica) that also have good market prospects.
At the same time, domestic demand will continue to pull the production as economic growth will continues to growth up based in the expansion of consumption.
With this perspective, the outlook for domestic production of vehicles in 2011 put the figure at about 864.600 vehicles, with proyections to reach one million units by 2013.
However, growth in production will result in the growth in imports of auto parts (for the original market for the increased production and the aftermarket by the growth in the vehicle fleet) and therefore a trend towards the increase in the deficit of the trade balance of the industry.
For these reasons the Argentine Government is working to promote investments in order to increase local capacity in manufacturing auto parts.
FINAL COMMENTS
ASOCIACIÓN DE FÁBRICAS ARGENTINAS DE COMPONENTES
Thank you!
June, 2011
Viamonte 1167, 2do. piso. Buenos Aires, ARGENTINA
Tel. +54 11 4375-0516 Fax +54 11 4814-3434
E-mail: [email protected]
www.afac.org.ar