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Overview
In the dark: lead, lag or harmonize?Kyoto align, Copenhagen harmonize, 2030 NDC lag
Me and my uncle: competitiveness neurosisMisaligned prices and leakage
A long strange trip: fragmented harmonizationUnify at home; continued focus on harmonization and alignment
2
In the Dark: lead, lag or harmonize?Beugin’s Pics: NRTEE Parallel Paths, 03‐31‐2011 (Bataille and Peters)
CANUSA CGE modelling on leading, lagging and harmonizing
• Align on Ps, not Q’s given misaligned abatement costs
• Oil and gas in CDN vs coal ELEC in US
3
Curve crossover not public
• CDN O&G backstop techs in play at higher Q’s
• US ELEC potential exhausted, costs rise in buildings, transport
• Has this changed with US oil and gas, renewables costs?
In the Dark: lead, lag or harmonize?Fischer’s Pics: Better Together, 09‐08‐2011 (Sawyer ad Fischer)
4
Compared ACESA and Copenhagen Targets
• Partial equilibrium using EIA ACESA and CDN MAC Curves
• CGE analysis of relative impacts
Importance of cross‐border allowance trade a resilient policy learning
Allowance Price
Total Cost ($B CDN)
Share of GDP
Alone Can TTC $60 $2.4 0.18%US ACESA $30 $18.5 0.13%
Together Can TTC$31
$1.7 0.13%US ACESA $19.1 0.13%
‐30%
‐10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
TTC Alone TTCTogether
US ACESAAlone
US ACESATogether
Cross border trade
International Offsets
Domestic Offsets
Covered Abatement
Canada USA
Compliance in 2020
Allowance Trade
Allowance Trade
Me and My Uncle: Competitiveness Neurosis Bataille’s Pic, When the US Sneezes, Canada gets sick 21‐10‐2014 (Sawyer and Bataille)
5
CGE modeling on EIA GHG trajectory of proposed CPP
• Asymmetric US policy impact on Canada
• Large indirect GHG reductions in Canada through income, demand.
• Indirect GDP impacts surprisingly high
• Relative intensities matter between sectors; some winners some losers
Me and My Uncle: Competitiveness Neurosis Peter’s and Beugin’s Pic, EcoFiscal Commission 05‐04‐2016 (Navius)
6
CGE alternatives analysis
• Autarky Ctax/full auction, $100, tax cuts
• Clear leakage risk in home and away markets
Me and My Uncle: Competitiveness Neurosis Dave’s Pic, Impact Analysis of Ontario’s Cap & Trade Program 17‐05‐2016
7
Regulatory analysis for Ontario’s cap and trade
• High cross‐border trade in allowance given P’s and Q’s
• Linked vs autarky carbon prices $20 vs $160
• Free allocations mute cost impact significantly
• Proceeds recycling matter less
A long strange trip: fragmented harmonizationDave’s Pic, NRTEE Achieving 2050 16‐04‐2009
8
With federal inaction, deeply fragmented subnational architecture
Fragmentation Ok when ambition and costs low
But with costs of deep decarbonization trajectory, fragmentation has to move to alignment domestically, then globally.
A long strange trip: fragmented harmonizationDave’s Pic, Mind the Gap 26‐04‐2016 (Sawyer and Bataille)
9
Current and Developing Policies: • BC Ctax• AB SGER > Climate Leadership • SK Boundary Dam CCS, SK 50% renewable power• ON Coal ban, WCI• QC WCI• NS RPS• Waste regs in provinces• Federal coal generation regs and café vehicle standards, • Federal methane regulations for oil and gas
(follows US, AB)
QC and ON True‐Up: 22 to 25 Mt in 2020
73 Mt in 2030
A long strange trip: fragmented harmonizationLast Thoughts
10
US movement will always catalyze action in Canada
• Methane regulations, Café vehicle standards
US inaction no longer an excuse for Canadian inaction
• Design with OBA now more or less dealing with trade exposure in most CDN jurisdictions
Will WCI continue to build carbon bridges?
• Big political question: access to US cost containment versus over allocation and capital flight
Continue to harmonize on regulations; seek longer term price alignment, linking by degrees
• In the dark: restart cross‐border analytics, brining in Mexico