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September 2016Sarah Cornell
Planetära gränser och miljöövervakning
tillbakablick, framåtblick
2009: Pioneering scientists pool their knowledge of Earth system processes
to inform the world about the space forsustainable action
Rockström et al. (2009) Nature 461, 472-475
• Interdisciplinary human and natural systems
• International global models, EO, networks
• Interfaces… science-policy-action
The science of the safe operating space
for humanity:
Graphics: © Jenny Soep 2016
• Measuring ‘nature’
• Understanding systems
• Handling complex change
How do we know what we know about global change?
Graphics: © Jenny Soep 2016
Measuring nature
• Count organisms, species, habitats, biomes (plankton to pixels)
Counting plankton – SAHFOS Continuous Plankton Recorder
(ocean ecosystem observations since 1940s)
Remote tree counting techniques – UCL/Rezatec’s Earth Observations
+ airborne data
Measuring nature
• Count organisms, species, habitats, biomes (plankton to pixels)• Measure concentrations and fluxes
FLUXNET, https://daac.ornl.gov
www.soest.hawaii.edu
Global data stewardship: ICSU World Data System, NOAA ESRL, etc.
Measuring nature
• Count organisms, species, habitats, biomes (plankton to pixels)• Measure concentrations and fluxes – and estimate stocks• Quantify dynamic behaviour – models + observation + theory
Aero
sol f
orm
ation
rate
Sulfuric acid concentration
Organic vapour concentrationImage: Metzger et al. 2010, PNAS
Image: Wolfe et al. 2012 PCCP
Measuring nature
• Count organisms, species, habitats, biomes (plankton to pixels)• Measure concentrations and fluxes – and estimate stocks• Quantify dynamic behaviour – models + observation + theory• Use proxies – indirect measures based on known relationships
Time-span of different climate proxies, US NOAA’s palaeoclimatology program
© K. Nicolussi
Measuring nature
• Count organisms, species, habitats, biomes (plankton to pixels)• Measure concentrations and fluxes – and estimate stocks• Quantify dynamic behaviour – models + observation + theory• Use proxies – indirect measures based on known relationships• Assess ‘ecosystem services’ – value-laden perspectives
Halpern et al. 2012Image: http://oneplanet-sustainability.org, 2012
The tree – a service station for human beings
Climate change information – many types, many scales, many uses
(Cornell and Downing/PTB (2014) - Quality infrastructure of global change science)
Timeframes of data acquisition
Spati
al sc
ales
of i
nfor
mati
on
Ecological measures, chemical pollution, and biogeochemical cycling
Information maps show gaps
Coarse
Temperature(δD)
Dust flux
Fine Global ice volume .
(δ18O)Monsoon strength
(loess magnetization )
Lambert, et al (2008) Dust-climate couplings over the past 800,000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice coreNature 452, 616-619 doi:10.1038/nature06763
A long look backward shows Earth’s dynamics
+4
0
-4
-8
Time, thousands of years ago
Cha
nge
in te
mpe
ratu
re
from
pre
sent
day
, °C
Plot shows GRIP ice core O18 isotope data – a measure of past air temperature
Holocene
Homo sapiens living in Asia… … in Australia and Europe
Neolithic revolution – first villages and farming
Roman empire
100 80 60 40 20 0
many rapid temperature changes (glacial periods) through history
The 2°C global warming policy target
(No-more)-Business-as-usual trajectory
And it shows that we are entering the Anthropocene
Steffen W. and the Anthropocene Working Group, 2016. Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene. Earth’s Future 4(8) 1-22
Take a look: https://xkcd.com/1732/
The Anthropocene: rapid, multidimensional changes in human and natural systems
Understanding systems The ‘Bretherton Diagram’ of the Earth system
(ESSC NASA Advisory Council 1988)
Understanding systems
Physical dynamics
Biologically mediated dynamics
The ‘Bretherton Diagram’ of the Earth system
(ESSC NASA Advisory Council 1988)
Understanding systems
biophysical integration predictive power
Image: FigFAQ10.1-1, Bindoff et al. (2013) IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 10.
Knutti and Sedlaček (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change 3, 369-373 doi:10.1038/nclimate1716
Understanding systems
Global humanity has choices about its future
Adaptive cycle images: Holling et al. in Gunderson & Holling (2002) Panarchy.
Image: Holling 1973
Resilience – complex systems theory applied to ecosystems
focus on dynamics descriptive insight
Understanding ‘social-ecological systems’
Handling complex change?
We know we are in a changing world – is it the function of science to track our own decline?
Image: ©
Edward Elgar 2014
‘Planetary Boundaries’ – red alerts on a global dashboard
Rockström and 27 co-authors (2009) ‘A Safe Operating Space for Humanity’: research article in Ecology & Society, discussion article in Nature.
Steffen and 17 co-authors (2015) ’Planetary Boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’: published in Science www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1259855
Urgent issues – Bend these curves!• Climate change and ocean acidification
(mainly due to CO2 emission)
• Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation
• Perturbed biogeochemical cycling (release of N and P)
• Land use and land cover change
• Systemic chemical pollution
• Freshwater abstraction
• Altered atmospheric physics and chemistry (aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone)
• Interacting pressures, building up fast
J. Friedrich, Modeling for Planetary Boundaries. MSc Thesis, Linköping/SRC
The Planetary Boundaries are features of a complex adaptive system
What do we
tackle first?
What cascading
risks do we face?
What trade-offs (if
any) are possible?
How do we understand
(model, observe)
this system?
The Planetary Boundaries are social boundaries – we can choose how we live within them
K. Raworth, Doughnut Economics, ECI Oxford (formerly Oxfam – see 2012 discussion paper
’Can we live within the doughnut?’
Since 2009…
new scientific assessments more evidence of human impact stronger calls for urgent global action
Graphics: © Jenny Soep 2016
Visualization and Enabling Technologies Section, UCAR: https://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/index.shtml https://youtu.be/d8sHvhLvfBo IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policy Makers 2015 - www.climatechange2013.org
We are warming Earth’s climate
2013/2014 - Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2015 UNFCCC Climate COP
Observed change in surface temperature (°C), 1901-2012
https://www.cbd.int/gbo/gbo4/publication/gbo4-en.pdfhttp://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report
We are reducing the variety of life on Earth
2014 – Global Biodiversity Outlook 4 (Convention on Biological Diversity)
and WWF’s Living Planet Reports
no progress
worse than before
Target 12: Safeguarding Earth’s species
http://www.nine-esf.org/ENA-Book,www.unep.org/gpa/documents/publications/ONW.pdf
Earth’s N and P cycles are out of balance
2012 – Our Nutrient World (UNEP)2011 – European Nitrogen Assessment (ESF/EC FP6/COST)
Figure: Gruber & Galloway 2008. An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle. Nature 451, 293-296, doi:10.1038/nature06592.
Many are now calling for a global nutrient assessment.
We continue to destroy forested lands
2015 – Global Forest Resources Assessment, UN Food and Agriculture Organization
http://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/current-assessment
http://www.unep.org/geo/pdfs/geo5/GEO5_report_C6.pdf
We are using and releasing more harmful chemicals
2012 – Global Environment Outlook (UNEP)2013 – Global Chemicals Outlook (UNEP/WHO)
Organochlorine compounds in beached plastics
17goals.org – join in, and find your own #SDGmove!
And we all know worldwide action is needed
2015 – UN Sustainable Development Goals and UNFCCC Climate COP
‘sustainable development aims to promote harmony among human beings and
between humanity and nature’
The 1987 Brundtland report says:
• a political system that secures effective citizen participation in decision making,• an economic system that is able to generate surpluses and technical knowledge on a
self-reliant and sustained basis,• a social system that provides for solutions for the tensions arising from
disharmonious development,• a production system that respects the obligation to preserve the ecological base for
development,• a technological system that can search continuously for new solutions,• an international system that fosters sustainable patterns of trade and finance, • an administrative system that is flexible and has the capacity for self-correction.
World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our Common Future, A/42/427. Chapter 2 The concept of Sustainable Development. www.un-documents.net/ocf-02.htm.
Harmony? Human activities already present global risks
Issue Global assessments Policy structures
Climate change IPCC AR 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2014; SRES; UNHDR…
IPCC, UNFCCC SBSTAMany international conventions
Ecosystem change
MA 2005; CBD GBO1-3; UNEP GEO1-5; TEEB; FAO…
IPBES and CBD SBSTTACBD, CITES, other conventions
Biogeochemical change
UNEP GPNM 2013; WMO/IAEA/UNEP GESAMP
INI, GPNM, WHO, FAO, WMO, IPCC, GPRI. Several conventions.
Chemical pollution
UNEP AMAP and other regional
SETAC, SCI, WHO-IFCS,Many conventions.
Nykvist et al. (2013) National responsibility (SEPA/SEI/SRC); Cornell and Downing (2014) Environment, Absolute?
Issue Global assessments Policy structures
Climate change IPCC AR 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2014; SRES; UNHDR…
IPCC, UNFCCC SBSTAMany international conventions
Ecosystem change
MA 2005; CBD GBO1-3; UNEP GEO1-5; TEEB; FAO…
IPBES and CBD SBSTTACBD, CITES, other conventions
Biogeochemical change
UNEP GPNM 2013; WMO/IAEA/UNEP GESAMP
INI, GPNM, WHO, FAO, WMO, IPCC, GPRI. Several conventions.
Chemical pollution
UNEP AMAP and other regional
SETAC, SCI, WHO-IFCS,Many conventions.
Nykvist et al. (2013) National responsibility (SEPA/SEI/SRC); Cornell and Downing (2014) Environment, Absolute? (PTB)
We are getting good at tracking change…
Science Policy Decision landscape
Climate Earth system knowledge, local gaps
Global agreement on targets
and metrics
Big science
Biodiversity Local knowledge, system gaps
Global agreement on targets
and metrics
Concerned coalitions
Biogeochemistry Gaps in local and system knowledge
Partial regional agreements,
emerging issue
Many different players
Chemical pollution Local knowledge, system gaps
Partial agreements, weak metrics
Big business
Science for real world use?
Strong policy interest in ‘safe operating space’ science: UN GSP’s ‘Resilient People, Resilient Planet’ (2012), UN Rio+20, UNEP GEO5 (2012), national assessments (Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa, Germany), EEAC discussions, LCA researchers,
green investors, UN Sustainable Development Goals (planetary boundaries processes are the focus of goals 6, 13 and 15, others are included in targets for goals 3, 11, 12, 13 and 14)
Cornell and Downing (2014) Environment, Absolute? (PTB)
Nykvist et al 2013, http://www.naturvardsverket.se/Documents/publikationer6400/978-91-620-6576-8.pdf
Focusing on national responsibility
Using existing ‘footprint’ measures
Häyhä et al. 2016
Engaging with policy at all levels• 2012 – UN GSP’s ‘Resilient People, Resilient Planet’,
UN Rio +20 debates, UNEP GEO5
• UN Sustainable Development Goals: planetary boundaries processes are the focus of goals 6, 13 and 15, others are included in targets for goals 3, 11, 12, 13 and 14
• European Environment and Sustainable Development Advisory Council discussions
• European Commission 7th EAP – ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’
• National assessments: Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa, UK, Germany, Finland
Supporting “Green Shoots”
• LCA research• New-generation footprinting• Green investors• Standards – UNECE Working Group; ISO• Public accountability – new generation CSR
We actually know what needs to be done…
Halt the rise in CO2 emissions as urgently as possible – stop burning fossil fuels into the atmosphere– keep ‘present day’ carbon in trees and the soil– go to the source: our everyday consumption and waste
Stop the huge release of environmentally active (harmful, synthetic) substances– wasting nutrients (N&P) is wasting money and energy too– implement the precautionary principle – the polluter pays principle always applies…
Minimize the footprint of our activities– assess the whole picture of resource use, trade and transport– stop shifting the problem to other parts of the world (‘externalities’)– STOP killing life (the ecosystems we are part of)
So why don’t we do it?
