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Side event Climate change mitigation and adaptation: approaches and
strategies in the Italian industryFederica Gasbarro (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna)
1tel. +39 051 6450411 | fax +39 051 [email protected] | http://www.lifeiris.eu
UNFCCC COP22 – 9th November 2016 – Marrakech, Morocco
Action A1 - Climate Change Risk Assessment
2
• Assessment of the exposure to climate hazards
• Assessment of sensitivity to climatic variability of the two productive areas
and the brewery supply chain involved in the project
• Assessment of capacity to cope with these impacts and the existing
adaptive measures
Results:
• A climate change risk assessment at productive area level for SIPRO and
CAP, and at supply chain level for Carlsberg Italia
• The maps of climate events at productive area level for SIPRO and CAP,
and at supply chain level for Carlsberg Italia
Involved parners:
SSSUP, CAP, SIPRO, CARLSBERG, ERVET
Actions C1 and C2 - Action plans for the climate
resilience
3
• Definition and implementation of the action plans for improving climate
resilience for both prductive areas and beer supply chain
• Every action of the plans will be appointed by a feasibility study and an
economic viability analysis
Results:
• Climate adaptation plans at productive area level for SIPRO and CAP, and
at supply chain level for Carlsberg Italia including one measure based on
ecosystem approach
• Climate adaptation plans monitoring reports
Involved parners:
SSSUP, CAP, SIPRO, CARLSBERG, ERVET
Action C4 - Web portal for climate resilient industry
4
• The action will develop a web portal aimed to give information
about risks and opportunities related to climate change impacts
to enterprises belonging to the clusters involved in the
demonstration actions
Web Portal:
• Portale web
Involved partners:
• TERRARIA, SSSUP, ERVET
Action C4 - Web portal for climate resilient industry
5
• The action will develop a web portal aimed to give information
about risks and opportunities related to climate change impacts
to enterprises belonging to the clusters involved in the
demonstration actions
Web Portal:
• Portale web
Involved partners:
• TERRARIA, SSSUP, ERVET
Around 1,3 mio HL beer
34 beers
in the portfolio
1° beer company in the world with an
EPD certification (Environmental Product
Declaration)
12 Awards in 2012,
2 in 2013,
3 in 2014
4 in 2015
for innovation, DraughMaster-Drink Different
and products
6 Products wth EPD
Carlsberg Italia
3° Italian market producer
6
Carlsberg Italia S.p.A. Supply chain
7
Carlsberg Italia climate risk assessment map by supply
chain phase
8
Procurement
• Business continuity
• Financial balance
Production
• Asset Integrity
• Business continuity
• Legal liability
• Reputation
• Financial balance
• Staff health & safety
• Infrastractures
Sales
• Business continuity
• Market response
Logistics
• Business continuity
Carlsberg Italia Main climate drivers for supply chain phase
9
Carlsberg Italia raw materials
10
Hop comes mainly from Germany and the USA.In 2015, Germany has had a very bad season characterized by rainfall which led to a poor crop yields. While in the US drought negatively impacted crop yields. Similar productive years impact availability in terms of quantity and consequent price increases.
The barley comes from France - A study conducted in France on barley crops from 1950 to 2014 in relation to climatic variables shows that the temperature above 33 ° C and the increase of rainfall impact barley production in terms of a reduction of the 0.11% to 0.16% per year.
Risk identification for Carlsberg’s raw
material procurement
11
Risk categories/climatic events
Procurement
He
at
wa
ve
s
Co
ld w
av
es
Torn
ad
o
Etr
em
ep
reci
pit
ati
on
s
an
d c
on
seq
ue
nts
:
a)
Flo
od
s
b)
lan
dsl
ide
Dro
ug
ht
Asset integrity
Business continuity X X X
Legal liability
Reputation
Market response
Financial balance X X X
Staff health and safety
Infrastructures
Carlsberg Italia previous experience with climate
extremes
12
The production plant has already been affected by floods three times,
the last being in July 2009. The flood of 2009 caused damage to the
plant not totally recognized by the insurance and therefore entailing
economic losses.
In March 2010 a collaboration started between the Lombardy
Region, the Basin Authority of the Po River, inter-regional Agency
for the River Po, Induno Olona, Varese Municipality and Carlsberg
Italia. This collaboration aimed to study and search for solutions
such as hydraulic arrangement of the River Olona in part of
Carlsberg property.
Carlsberg has drawn up a preliminary plan for the retention works
in the stretch from Valganna Caves at the confluence of the two
branches of the Olona.
Risk identification for Carlsberg’s plant and
production
13
Risk categories/climatic events
Production
He
at
wa
ve
s
Co
ld w
av
es
Torn
ad
o
Etr
em
ep
reci
pit
ati
on
s
an
d c
on
seq
ue
nts
:
a)
Flo
od
s
b)
lan
dsl
ide
Dro
ug
ht
Asset integrity X X X X
Business continuity X X X X X X X
Legal liability X X X X X
Reputation X X X X X
Market response
Financial balance X X X X X
Staff health and safety X X X X X X
Infrastructures X X X X X X
Carlsberg Italia: climate impact on sales
14
• The beer is sold mainly between April (Easter) and September with peak when the temperature is between 27 ° and 28 ° C
• Beer sales slow down when the temperature exceeds 30 ° C, because the consumption are turning to other beverages such as water. As a consequence in case of heat waves or summer storms and temperature drop, beer consumption is reduced.
• In case of rainy or cool summers such as the summer of 2014, the beer consumption fell with consequences for the whole chain
• In general, with increasing average temperatures, then warmer autumn and spring and warmer summer, the sales decrease during the summer and increase in the spring and autumn
• Special beers are not affected by these impacts
Risk identification for Carlsberg’s sales
15
Risk categories/climatic events
Sales
He
at
wa
ve
s
Co
ld w
av
es
Torn
ad
o
Etr
em
ep
reci
pit
ati
on
s
an
d c
on
seq
ue
nts
:
a)
Flo
od
s
b)
lan
dsl
ide
Dro
ug
ht
Asset integrity
Business continuity
Legal liability
Reputation
Market response X X
Financial balance
Staff health and safety
Infrastructures
Carlsberg Italia main climate risks
16
Main climate events Supply chain phases at risk Potential risks
Asset integrity
Business continuity
Legal liability
Reputation
Raw materials procurement
Production
Carlsberg’s Magnitude assessment
17
Associated Magnitude to each risk per climate events
Heat
wave
Cold wave Tornado Extreme
precipitations
Drought
a) Asset integrity 5,00 5,00 5,00
b) Business continuity 4,00 3,50 4,00 4,60 4,50
c) Legal liability 4,00 4,00 4,00 4,00
d) Reputation 3,00 4,00 4,00 4,00 3,50
e) Market response 4,00 4,00 4,00
f) Financial balance 3,00 3,00 3,67 3,40 3,40
g) Staff health and safety 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00
h) Infrastructures 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00
Carlsberg’s Risk assessment
18
Heat wave Cold wave Tornado Extreme Precipitations Drought
P M R P M R P M R P M R P M R
a) Asset
integrity 1,00 - - 0,65 - - 0,30 5,00 1,50 1,00 5,00 5,00 1,00 5,00 5,00
b) Business
continuity 1,00 4,00 4,00 0,65 3,50 2,28 0,30 4,00 1,20 1,00 4,60 4,60 1,00 4,50 4,50
c) Legal
liability 1,00 - - 0,65 4,00 2,60 0,30 4,00 1,20 1,00 4,00 4,00 1,00 4,00 4,00
d) Reputation
1,00 3,00 3,00 0,65 4,00 2,60 0,30 4,00 1,20 1,00 4,00 4,00 1,00 3,50 3,50
e) Market
response 1,00 4,00 4,00 0,65 4,00 2,60 0,30 - - 1,00 4,00 4,00 1,00 - -
f) Financial
balance 1,00 3,00 3,00 0,65 3,00 1,95 0,30 3,67 1,10 1,00 3,40 3,40 1,00 3,40 3,40
g) Staff health
and safety
1,00 3,00 3,00 0,65 3,00 1,95 0,30 3,00 0,90 1,00 3,00 3,00 1,00 3,00 3,00
h) Infrastructur
es 1,00 - - 0,65 3,00 1,95 0,30 3,00 0,90 1,00 3,00 3,00 1,00 3,00 3,00
Carlsberg’s risk rank per typology
Before the adaptive capacity assessment
Risk Assessment
a) Asset integrity 2,88
b) Business continuity 2,49
c) Legal liability 2,21
d) Reputation 2,15
e) Market response 2,10
f) Financial balance 1,93
g) Staff health and safety 1,78
h) Infrastructures 2,21
After the adaptive capacity assessment
19
Rischio Valutazione
a) Asset integrity 3,83
b) Business continuity 3,32
c) Legal liability 2,95
d) Reputation 2,86
e) Market response 3,53
f) Financial balance 2,57
g) Staff health and safety 2,37
h) Infrastructures 2,21
Carlsberg Italia climate change adaptation plan
20
The plan includes 5 measures: • Feasibility study for changing pasteurizer
• Creating working area within the green park on the Induno Olona
beer factory
• Hydrogeological study to understand the future impact of climate
change on the water availability
• Carrying out a study on the impact of climate change on the green
park on the Induno Olona beer factory
• Identification of some adaptation measures for bees conservation
together with honey supplier
Bomporto industrial area
21
• Bomporto Industrial area (Modena)
• 95 hectares
• 70 enterprises, with manufacturing
prevalence (60%)
• 1200 employees
Bomporto previous experience with climate
22
19/01/2014 30/04/2014
Bomporto magnitude assessment
23
HEATWAVES: high event
likelohood but limited
damages
DROUGHT: likelihood and
damages low
EXTREME PRECIPITATIONS:
likelihood and damages very
high
Bomporto climate risk assessment map
24
Bomporto climate change adaptation plan
25
The plan includes 13 measures to be implemented in
10 years: • Info Point for the companies within the CAP
• Training for the companies
• Climate risk assessment for the companies belonging to the
cluster
• Emergency plan and automatic alert
• Comfort outdoor simulation
• Urban trees
• Drainable floors
• Flowerbed for catching the rain
• Flooding basin
Bomporto climate change adaptation plan timeline
26
Ostellato industrial area
27
• Ostellato industrial area (Ferrara)
• 120 hectares
• 24 enterprises, largely belonging to
manufacturing (70%)
• 650 employees
Ostellato climate risk assessment map
28
Ostellato climate change adaptation plan
29
The plan includes 10 measures: • Adaptation Helpdesk for the companies
• Training for the companies
• Climate risk assessment for the companies belonging to the
cluster
• Support to the definition of climate change adaptation plans for
the companies belonging to the cluster
• Urban trees within Sipro area (50.000mq)
• Barrier against flood
• Smart irrigation and raining collector
Web tool climate change risk assessment: sites
30
Web tool climate change risk assessment: events
31
Web tool climate change risk assessment: likelihood
32
Web tool climate change risk assessment: risk
evalutation results
33
Web tool climate change risk assessment: risk
assessment results
34
