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Excerpts from the presentation by Dr. Ashley South and Dr. Christopher Joll at the Institute for Autonomy & Governance, May 20, 2014
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PEACE PROCESSES COMPARED: Myanmar & Mindanao
C. Similari@es and contrasts
Similarity # 1
• IdenEty-‐oriented self-‐determinaEon struggles, with religious orientaEon (parEcularly on Mindanao), vis-‐à-‐vis centralising state, ruled from far away and idenEfied with culturally alien majority ‘other’ (state assimilaEonist agendas).
• Long-‐standing armed conflicts complicated by poliEcal economies (mixtures of ‘grievance’ and ‘greed’ agendas – on Mindanao?).
Similarity # 2
• Histories of previous, largely unsuccessful ceasefires. • Self-‐reliance of communiEes and armed groups. • Elite-‐driven peace process, with communiEes and civil society not always feeling properly consulted.
• Recent posiEve developments led by newly-‐elected naEonal Presidents (Benigno Aquino III & U Thein Sein).
• Natural resource poliEcs; land issues.
Similarity # 3
• CommuniEes experiencing the benefits of peace: freedom from fear; rehabilitaEon of communiEes; freedom of travel; expectaEons of the peace process.
• What hasn’t changed: conEnued economic problems, percepEons of discriminaEon on the part of minority communiEes; prevalence of drugs and lawlessness, land issues -‐ community concerns.
• Risks associated with government, naEonal army, majority community (Filipinos, Burmans) not accepEng and/or not implemenEng peace agreements.
Similarity # 4
• PosiEons (idenEEes, interests) of those working with or under the government (c.f. the ‘other Karen’).
• Security Sector Reform/DDR (‘normalisaEon’) -‐ what are the roles of armed elements (parEcularly young men), post-‐ceasefire? (Possible scenario from other ceasefires in the Philippines: armed groups become local, semi-‐criminal guns-‐for-‐hire.)
Similarity # 5
• Challenges of Armed Groups transforming into viable local governments/administraEons (and poliEcal parEes?). Risks of poor governance and corrupEon miEgated somewhat on Mindanao by disciplined nature of MILF.
Contrast # 1
• Bangsamoro’ shared idenEty of all non-‐Filipino groups on Mindanao (?); Myanmar’s diverse and heterogeneous ethnic communiEes.
• Importance of GRP recognising the Bangsamoro in principle, as a legiEmate, autonomous poliEcal enEty; Myanmar government (and Army) has been reluctant to acknowledge poliEcal legiEmacy of ethnic (parEcularly armed) actors, or to grant significant autonomy.
Contrast # 2
• Historically differing poliEcal cultures: GRP openness to internaEonal engagement. Myanmar military government autarchy, and ‘xenophobia’ (including towards Muslims).
• Geographically, where as Mindanao is an island, Myanmar’s InternaEonal borders have implicaEons for refugees and regional poliEcs.
• The two countries have different geo-‐strategic posiEons and interests with China, USA, ASEAN, OIC etc.
• InternaEonal mediaEon in Mindanao peace talks (InternaEonal Contact Group -‐ novel model, including states and INGOs).
Contrast # 3
• InternaEonal monitoring on Mindanaon (InternaEonal Monitoring Group, and Civilian ProtecEon Component). Limited nature of internaEonal support to Myanmar peace process.
• FormaEon of GRP-‐MILF Peace Panel and TransiEonal Arrangements (Basic Law, plebiscite, transiEon). Limited progress in Myanmar peace talks -‐ in relaEon to autonomy in principle (consEtuEonal change?) or pracEce (“transiEonal arrangements”).
• Annex on Revenue GeneraEon and Wealth-‐sharing.
Contrast # 4
• MILF has large numbers of troops staEoned in close vicinity to the areas of GRP control, and Philippines Army bases; LGUs and RP military posiEons across Bangsamoro, interspersed with MILF [?]. Myanmar ‘liberated zones’, and areas of ‘mixed authority’.
• Impacts of foreign aid …