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An overview of the potential impact of social media on the 2010 US midterm elections presented to the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, in August 2010.
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The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elec8ons
Jonathan Kopp Partner & Global Director, Ketchum Digital 31 August 2010
Latest Horserace Polls
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In the last two cycles, Dems added 55 House seats & gained a majority.
The question isn’t whether GOPs will pick up seats in 2010, but how many.
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1948
campaigns or commerce:
it’s all COMMUNICATIONS
Ike, 1952. The “Living Room
Candidate”
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PAST IS PROLOGUE
Produced by Roy Disney
Eisenhower Answers America
LBJ, 1964. “Daisy”
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Produced by Doyle, Dane Birnbach
(Change = Risk)
PENDULUM swings BACK
7 40 years later, the world awoke to SOCIAL MEDIA
In Q3 2003, Dean raised about $15 million (mostly small dona8ons), a record for a Democra8c presiden8al candidate.
By mid-‐November, the Howard Dean Meetup group boasted more than 140,000 members.
8 Were it not for the Internet, Barack Obama would not be president. -‐Arianna Huffington
The tools changed between 2004 & 2008. Obama won… every single caucus state that maFers… because he was able to move thousands of people to organize. -‐Joe Trippi
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I am learning to get online myself, and I will have that down fairly soon, getting on myself…. I don’t e-mail. I’ve never felt the particular need to e-mail.
John McCain, as quoted in the New York Times, 13 July 2008
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“MyBO” “The campaign’s official stuff they created for YouTube was watched for 14.5 million hours. To buy 14.5 million hours on broadcast TV is $47 million.”
Joe Trippi
pragmaHc INNOVATION
The SINCEREST form of FLATTERY
14 2008 2009
GOPs now Dominate the Major SoMe Media Pladorms
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HILL TWEETS • 60% of Capitol Hill elected Twi3er users are GOPs. • In the House, GOPs send close to 5X as many tweets as Dems. • Senate GOPS out tweet Dems by 35%.
HILL VIDEO • 89% of congressional GOPs have YouTube channels (only 74% of all Hill Dems).
• GOPs own 8 of the top 10 most viewed and subscribed congressional YouTube channels.”
HILL FACEBOOK • House Minority Leader John Boehner has 75,443 FB fans;
• Majority Leader Pelosi has a mere 20,445. • The "Impeach Pelosi” page has 80,000+.
The 2010 Social Media Toolkit
16 The 2010 US Tool Kit Facebook
TwiTer
Hidden Party AffiliaUon
Blogs
YouTube
Share
E-‐mail sign up
Text sign up
Video
Flickr
Google Buzz
FourSquare
MulUlingual Campaign Site
Less Commonly
Used
2010 Social Media Toolkit
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TwiTer
Facebook YouTube Flickr RSS
Obscured Party AffiliaUon
Spanish Language
Video Embedded
Email & SMS Sign-‐up
Donate
Blog & Toolbar
Share
Rapid
Response
Act
Will SOCIAL MEDIA
be the DIFFERENCE
MAKER in 2010
18 NEVADA WASHINGTON COLARADO Harry Reid
Sharron Angle
PaTy Murray
Dino Rossi
Ken Buck
Michael Bennet
Facebook x x x x x x TwiTer x x x x x x Campaign Site x x x x x x Spanish Site x x Blog x x x x YouTube x x x x x x Flickr x x x x Google Buzz x Share x x x x x x E-‐mail sign up x x x x x x Text sign up x x x x x Video x x x x x x FourSquare x Hidden Party AffiliaUon
x x x x x
Scof Brown (R-‐MA), Special Elec8on & Social Media
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SOCIAL MEDIA AS PREDICTOR? The 1st poll to correctly predict Brown’s January 19 win was a social media poll on January 14, when tradiUonal polls were sUll showing a close race.
BROWN BEAT COAKLEY ACROSS SOCIAL MEDIA
10:1 10:1
4:1 3:1 In Web traffic
in YouTube views in TwiTer followers
in Facebook followers
UK Conserva8ves Dominate Social Media Cameron Bounces Brown
20 Gordon Brown
David Cameron
Nick Clegg
Facebook x x x TwiTer x x x Campaign Site x x x Blogs x x YouTube x x Flickr x Share x x E-‐mail sign up x x x Text sign up x x x Video x x Download x
Incumbent ignores YouTube & Flickr (10 Downing page censored viewer comments)
Turning the Tide in Colombia
21 Juan Manuel Santos Antanas Mockus
Facebook x x TwiTer x x Campaign Site x x My Space x YouTube x x Flickr x x Share x x E-‐mail sign up x Text sign up X Video x x
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/080510-social-media-aids-the-election.html
Santos: From 12% down to a win in final 50 days
Mockus: Loss afributed to social media presence that lacked authenHc engagement
Have We Learned Anything
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the POWER of digital + social media: MICROTARGETING, EMPOWERMENT & MOBILIZATION
• Obama outspent McCain 10-‐1 online. – esUmated $8 million
– ≥ 50% of all 2008 online poliUcal ad spending
but OLD MEDIA
s8ll RULES
• Obama spent $250MM+ on general elecUon ads, versus $130MM by McCain.
• Secret weapon: Radio – Obama outspent
McCain 5-‐1.
In hindsight,
it seems inevitable…
• 24mm youth (18-‐29) voted in 2008
• 2.2mm more youth than in 2004
• Highest youth turnout ever (est. 49-‐55%) • About 66% of them voted for Obama
In hindsight,
it seems inevitable…
• 24mm youth (18-‐29) voted in 2008
• 2.2mm more youth than in 2004
• Highest youth turnout ever (est. 49-‐55%) • About 66% of them voted for Obama
DIFFERENCE MAKERS: VISION STRATEGY MESSAGE DISCIPLINE AUTHENTIC ENGAGEMENT INNOVATION & INTEGRATION
Some Ques8ons for Amer the Polls Close
• Did one side’s consistent usage of social media have an electoral impact?
• Did it increase youth turn out? • Did it maTer in the midterms, where the tradiUonal turnout is small numbers of seniors?
• Did it help less funded candidates? • Did it widen the gap for well-‐heeled candidates?
• What’s next?
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The Impact of Social Media on the 2010 US Elec8ons
Jonathan Kopp Partner & Global Director, Ketchum Digital 31 August 2010
