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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 24, 2012
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment
as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
• Romney vs. Obama
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• The Presidential ballot in Wisconsin before and after Paul Ryan is announced as VP nominee.
• Registration rates in swing states.
• The Presidential ballot in swing states.
• Romney’s momentum in traditional democratic states.
Page 3
Weekly Summary
• By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor (pg. 8).
o In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%.
• Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of the 8 swing state that Obama won in 2008 (pg. 9).
o This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that Democrats will have a lower turnout in crucial
swing states in 2012.
• Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states (pg. 10).
o Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November.
• Romney is gaining momentum in key swing states (pg. 11).
o In a new Quinnpiac poll, he registered his first lead in Colorado and closed the gap in Nevada to 2%.
o In the traditional Democratic state of Pennsylvania, Obama now leads Romney by 6% compared to
Obama’s 12% lead in June.
Page 4
Only 30% of Americans continue to feel as though the nation is on the right track.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Month Ago One Year Ago
Right Direction 32% 17%
Wrong Track 62% 77%
2010 Election
29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%
17% 19%
31% 30% 32% 31%
47%
66% 62% 64% 63% 64% 66% 64%
77% 74%
61% 62% 62% 63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan
-10
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ap
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Jun
-10
Jul-1
0
Au
g-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Oct-
10
Nov-1
0
De
c-1
0
Jan
-11
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ap
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Jun
-11
Jul-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan
-12
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Jun
-12
Jul-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Direction of the Country
Right Direction Wrong Track
Page 5
Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 46% 46%
Disapprove 50% 49%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46% 48%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Page 6
$50,844
$139,914
$15,972,772,894,158
The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
Page 7
Republicans continue to maintain a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%
41% 43% 41% 41% 42%
46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%
41% 46%
43% 43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
Page 8
By adding Paul Ryan to the ticket, the presidential ballot in Wisconsin shifted 4% in Romney’s favor. In a state that Obama won by 14% in 2008, Romney now leads by 1%.
Source: Rasmussen Reports
46% 48% 49% 47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25-Jul 15-Aug
Presidential Ballot in Wisconsin before and after Romney chose Ryan as his Running Mate
Romney/Ryan Obama/Biden
Page 9
Democratic registration rates fell in 7 of 8 swing states that Obama won in 2008. This is troubling for Obama because it suggests that democrats will have a lower turnout in 2012.
5.30% 0.50%
6.40%
-0.70%
-7.30%
2.30%
-0.70% -5.10% -0.70%
3%
-4.90% -9.50%
-1.40%
-19.70%
-2.30% -4.10% -7.40% -5.20%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New Hampshire
New Mexico North Carolina Pennsylvania 8 State Total
Change in Voter Registration in 8 Swing States from 2008-2012
Republicans Democrats Source: Third Way
Page 10
Romney leads Obama in 3 of the 4 key swing states. Maintaining these ballot advantages will be critical to Romney’s victory in November.
Source: Purple Strategies Conducted August 13-14
*States include: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire,
New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
46% 48% 46% 48% 47% 49% 45% 44%
47% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Colorado Virginia Ohio Florida 12 State Total*
Presidential Ballot in Swing States
Romney Obama
Page 11
Romney is gaining momentum in key swing states. In a new Quinnipiac poll, he registered his first lead in Colorado and closed the gap in Nevada to 2%. In the traditional Democratic state of Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney by 6% compared to Obama’s 12% lead in June.
45% 45% 50%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Colorado Nevada
Presidential Ballot in Colorado and Nevada
Romney Obama
30% 33%
36% 38% 41% 41%
48% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Jun-12 Aug-12
Presidential Ballot in Pennsylvania
Romney Obama
Sources: Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, and Franklin and Marshall College
Page 12
Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
39%
2010 Election
Page 13
Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
125,000 =
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
July 2012 8.3%
87,000 64,000
163,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
May June July
Jobs Created by Month
Page 14
The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Page 15
For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
Matt Gammon Vice President
202.470.6300
