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Challenged the ‘mystique’ behind left-handed pitching in Major League Baseball through statistical analysis and economic principles
Citation preview
Challenging Assumptions
Andrew Arnel Cody Jankowski David Lieberman
Left-Handed vs. Right-Handed Pitching
Left-Handed Pitchers
• Southpaws have historically performed slightly better– Easier to pick off base runners standing on first
base– Pitcher is granted more time to hide the ball in his
mitt, obstruct the batter’s vision
Left-Handed People
• Left-handed people are viewed as unique outliers– Majority of modern inventions provide left-handed people with
disadvantages (cars, telephones, scissors, refrigerator doors)
• 15% of the world is left-handed
• Left-handed people are more likely to be geniuses– Left-handed people are better at handling large amounts of stimuli– More left-handed people with IQs above 140 than right-handed
people• This could explain why there are more left-handed people in creative
professions such as music, art, politics and writing
Left-Handed People
• Left half of the brain: associated with logic and reason
• Right half of the brain: associated with art and inventiveness– Each of the brain’s hemispheres control the opposite
side of the body– Some of world’s greatest prodigies were lefties
• Leonardo da Vinci• Benjamin Franklin• Jimi Hendrix• Barack Obama
Left-Handed Phenomenon
• “out in left field”• “do it the right way”• “a left-handed compliment”
Could it be that right-handed people have a skewed perspective on left-handed people due to the negative connotation associated with the left side?
Could it be that subconscious prejudice against lefties still exists due to the historical intolerance built up against left handed people?
Top 12 MLB PitchersAMERICAN LEAGUE NATIONAL LEAGUE
Name Throws Team Div. Contract Name Throws Team Div. Contract
CC Sabathia
Left New YorkYankees
East 8 yrs$182M
Cliff Lee
Left PhiladelphiaPhillies
East 5 yrs$120M
Jon Lester
Left BostonRed Sox
East 5 yrs$30M
Cole Hamels
Left PhiladelphiaPhillies
East 1 yr$15M
C.J. Wilson
Left TexasRangers*
West 5 yrs$77.5M
Clayton Kershaw
Left Los AngelesDodgers
West 2 yrs$19M
Josh Beckett
Right BostonRed Sox
East 4 yrs$68M
Roy Halladay
Right PhiladelphiaPhillies
East 3 yrs$60M
Justin Verlander
Right DetroitTigers
Cent. 5 yrs$79.5M
Zack Greinke
Right MilwaukeeBrewers
Cent. 4 yrs$38M
Felix Hernandez
Right SeattleMariners
West 5 yrs$78M
Tim Lincecum
Right San FranciscoGiants
West 2 yrs$40.5M
Top 6 AL PitchersAMERICAN LEAGUE
Name Throws W L ERA G IP H ER BB K WHIP vs. RHB vs. LHB
CC Sabathia
Left 19 8 3.00 33 237.1 230 79 61 230 1.226 0.273 0.207
Jon Lester
Left 15 9 3.47 31 191.2 182 74 75 182 1.257 0.244 0.207
C.J. Wilson
Left 16 7 2.94 34 223.1 191 73 74 206 1.187 0.227 0.251
Josh Beckett
Right 13 7 2.89 30 193.0 146 62 52 175 1.026 0.245 0.186
Justin Verlander
Right 24 5 2.40 34 251.0 174 67 57 250 0.920 0.215 0.174
Felix Hernandez
Right 14 14 3.47 33 233.2 218 90 67 222 1.220 0.243 0.252
Average 17 8 3.03 33 221.4 190 74 64 211 1.139 0.241 0.213
Top 6 NL PitchersNATIONAL LEAGUE
Name Throws W L ERA G IP H ER BB K WHIP vs. RHB vs. LHB
Cliff Lee
Left 17 8 2.40 32 232.2 197 62 42 238 1.027 0.239 0.196
Cole Hamels
Left 14 9 2.79 32 216.0 169 67 44 194 0.986 0.204 0.249
Clayton Kershaw
Left 21 5 2.28 33 233.1 174 59 54 248 0.977 0.213 0.178
Roy Halladay
Right 19 6 2.35 32 233.2 208 61 35 220 1.040 0.206 0.273
Zack Greinke
Right 16 6 3.83 28 171.2 161 73 45 201 1.200 0.245 0.245
Tim Lincecum
Right 13 14 2.74 33 217.0 176 66 86 220 1.207 0.226 0.217
Average 17 8 2.73 32 217.1 181 65 51 220 1.073 0.222 0.226
Left-Handed PitchersLEFT-HANDED PITCHERS
Name Hitters BAA OBP SLG OPS K/BBCC
Sabathiavs. LHB 0.207 0.253 0.301 0.554 8.00 vs. RHB 0.273 0.324 0.384 0.709 2.84 Differential 0.066 0.071 0.083 0.155 5.16
JonLester
vs. LHB 0.207 0.281 0.299 0.580 2.89 vs. RHB 0.244 0.328 0.400 0.728 2.28 Differential 0.037 0.047 0.101 0.148 0.61
C.J.Wilson
vs. LHB 0.251 0.323 0.335 0.658 3.00 vs. RHB 0.227 0.296 0.354 0.650 2.72 Differential (0.024) (0.027) 0.019 (0.008) 0.28
CliffLee
vs. LHB 0.196 0.219 0.299 0.518 12.25 vs. RHB 0.239 0.283 0.351 0.634 4.97 Differential 0.043 0.064 0.052 0.116 7.28
ColeHamels
vs. LHB 0.249 0.286 0.376 0.662 4.30 vs. RHB 0.204 0.251 0.326 0.577 4.44 Differential (0.045) (0.035) (0.050) (0.085) (0.14)
ClaytonKershaw
vs. LHB 0.178 0.245 0.267 0.512 4.42 vs. RHB 0.213 0.259 0.305 0.563 4.64 Differential 0.035 0.014 0.038 0.051 (0.22)
Right-Handed PitchersRIGHT-HANDED PITCHERS
Name Hitters BAA OBP SLG OPS K/BBJosh
Beckettvs. RHB 0.245 0.292 0.379 0.671 4.87 vs. LHB 0.186 0.260 0.303 0.562 2.76 Differential (0.059) (0.032) (0.076) (0.109) 2.11
JustinVerlander
vs. RHB 0.215 0.253 0.364 0.617 5.53 vs. LHB 0.174 0.233 0.271 0.504 3.82 Differential (0.041) (0.020) (0.093) (0.113) 1.71
FelixHernandez
vs. RHB 0.243 0.292 0.364 0.656 4.76 vs. LHB 0.252 0.314 0.349 0.662 2.45 Differential 0.009 0.022 (0.015) 0.006 2.31
RoyHalladay
vs. RHB 0.206 0.236 0.275 0.511 8.00 vs. LHB 0.273 0.305 0.354 0.659 4.47 Differential 0.067 0.069 0.079 0.148 3.53
ZackGreinke
vs. RHB 0.245 0.305 0.375 0.679 4.07 vs. LHB 0.245 0.288 0.450 0.738 5.06 Differential 0.000 (0.017) 0.075 0.059 (0.99)
TimLincecum
vs. RHB 0.226 0.302 0.362 0.663 3.16 vs. LHB 0.217 0.303 0.326 0.628 2.10 Differential (0.009) 0.001 (0.036) (0.035) 1.06
Are Statistics Enough?
The reason why left-handed pitchers command more interest, money and investment in comparison to right-handed pitchers has a lot to do with scarcity and the human behavior that reacts to this economic force.
Scarcity
“Left-handers are a limited commodity in baseball’s player market, and teams devote great amounts of time, energy and stress into making sure they don’t miss their share of them.” –Mel Antonen, USA Today
“That means a player whose normal ability warrants a second-round pick might go in the first round because a team is so desperate. –Allan Simpson, Baseball America
Source Monitoring
There are less lefty pitchers than righties, causing managers to overvalue and overpay for lefties – because they are more exclusive, and not because they are more successful.
Source monitoring – the idea that humans when told enough times that something is truth, will eventually believe it in spite of its validity
Auction Markets
Sequential ordering – people are heavily influenced by the decisions that are made before them, like in an auction market. Public decision-making encourages conformity.
Managerial activity and team decision-making in baseball is very much predicated on the history of what has happened in and around the league.
Marketability Value
• Part of what you pay in a contract is an entertainment value– Philosophy relies on the excitement a ball club generates
from its “ace”
• Last four MLB offseasons dominated by a single contract, the top FA pitcher.– 2009: CC Sabathia – 7 years, $161 M (now 8/182)– 2010: John Lackey – 5 years, $82.5M– 2011: Cliff Lee – 5 years, $120M– 2012: C.J. Wilson – 5 years, $77.5M
Overcompensating
Sequential ordering – baseball teams strive for more variety when it comes to building a pitching staff, giving up too much money and attention for left-handed pitching.
The same irrational behaviors are systematic and predictable.
Conclusion
In the end, we believe irrationality even has its place in the business that is baseball.
Unless business makers and managers in the MLB could revise their thinking, teams will continue to overpay and over-invest in “the lefty” over “the righty” without any rationality.