凯捷安永分析及假设

Structured Problem Solving & Hypothesis Generation

© 2004 Capgemini - All rights reservedXxx/yymmdd - Structured Problem Solving and Hypothesis Generation, Author / 2 Consulting Skills Workshop

Goals of this module

Lay out a systematic approach to solving business problems –“Structured Problem Solving ”

Establish a common “modus operandus” for Consulting teams

Practice the suggested process on a real-life example


Defining the issue is the first step in the journey to final recommendations

Develop Conclusions and

Make Recommendations

to Implement

Find InsightsAnalyse DataGather DataForm

Hypotheses

So what? —aha, new thought

What you should do… and how

Define the Issues

What are the questions keeping you awake at night?

Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypotheses

Analyse what the data tells us

Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysis


Hypothesis formation ensures that our analysis is focused on our client’s problem

Form Hypotheses

Define the Issues

Gather Data Analyse Data Find Insights

Develop Conclusions and

Make Recommendations

to Implement

So what? —aha, new thought

What you should do… and how

What are the questions keeping you awake at night?

Factual information gathered to prove or disprove hypotheses

Analyse what the data tells us

Statements that provide direction and structure for the analysis


Hypotheses are developed in three steps

• What are the real strategic issues?

• What is the impact on the organisation?

• What are the priorities?

• We think . . .

• It looks like . . .

• The right answer may be . . .

• The options could be . . .

• We believe this to be true . . .

• A series of statements, not yet backed by data

• Based on initial data search or expert opinions

A number of assertions need to be true for a hypothesis to be valid.

Is there a market for white label insurance products?

• Direct channels are growing

• Retailers have a strong channel and brand

• There are existing products

Chubb Insurance can access new business by

using the brand strength of Tesco resulting Is low cost

of acquisition and profitable business

Define the question

Review and Describe Multiple

Assertions

Form the hypothesis

1

2

3


A hypothesis should identify not only the issue but also the cause and the impact

Think through these three stages as you create a hypothesis to help you plan out how you will test it: What is the issue?

What is the underlying opportunity?

Where is the advantage?

What do you think causes the issue? What are the key drivers of the process?

What is the impact of the issue? How can we tell there is an opportunity?

Why do we care?

“x is anopportunity

...”

“…due to...”

“…resultingin...”


DEFINE THE PROBLEM

STRUCTURE THE ANALYSIS

FIND THE SOLUTION

Our problem solving approach produces results through answering a simple series of questions

Is there a problem or opportunity?

If so where does it lie?

Why does it exist?

What could we do about it?

What should we do about it?

Fine, but IWIK H2 do this...


“If you don’t know where you are going,

any road will take you there.”

-Anonymous

“If you don’t know where you are going,

any road will take you there.”

-Anonymous

Why problem definition matters


In structuring a problem, break it into smaller, easier-to-handle components AND start with

the right definitions

US Car MarketUS Car Market

Light TrucksLight

TrucksPassenger

CarsPassenger

Cars Big 3Big 3

Mini VansMini VansSport Utility

Vehicles

Sport Utility

VehiclesFordFord GMGM ChryslerChrysler

But be careful — why does this not work?


"Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive""Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive"

The most important rule for any structure you impose


DEVELOP A HYPOTHESIS

What differentiates a good hypothesis from a bad one?

On target: Answers the core question on the

clients’ mind

Accurate:

Embraces the entire range of competitive or profit drivers

Minimal: “Occam’s razor”

Actionable: Can be quantified and tested

On time

Good Hypotheses Are

Cannot be refuted

Cannot possibly be quantified

Require you to “Boil the Ocean”

Are so obvious that nobody can intelligently disagree with it

Or look like an abstract model of a process consisting of boxes, arrows and clouds

Bad Hypotheses



How to find a good hypothesis

There are proven processes to generate hypotheses: Talk to lots of people about the core problem

Have a brainstorming case team meeting

Taguchi method — ask “5 Why’s”

Start with general validity checks for your hypotheses: Assume perfect rationality — how ought the business system to

behave?

Look for analogies (other industries or problems)

Imagine that you had perfect information — what would the ideal analysis look like?

Try Lateral Thinking: Think about the problem from a different angle



What if your hypothesis is proven wrong?

You Win!

Hypothesis-driven thinking requires frequent reviews of the prevailing and current hypotheses:

Do we still think they are right?

Are we making progress towards disproving them?

Are they at the right level of generality/predictiveness?

Having proven a hypothesis wrong means you have made a big step towards answering your question!

“A wise man sometimes changes his mind, but a fool never.”

-Arabic Proverb

“A wise man sometimes changes his mind, but a fool never.”

-Arabic Proverb


Summary

To be developed – thank you!!

Technology

凯捷安永 分析及假设

凯捷安永分析及假设