From  https://twitter.com/RickBeerendonk/status/514336396048617472/photo/1      Let’s  look  at  these  conjectures  in  light  of  Red  Herrings,  Straw  Men,  and  Distortions.  

• Red   Herring   -­‐   refers   to   something   that   misleads   or   distracts   from   the  relevant  or  important  issue  

• Strawman   –   an   argument   based   on   the   misrepresentation   of   an  opponent's  argument  

• Misinformation   –   false   or   inaccurate   information   that   is   spread  unintentionally.  

 1) Technologies  are  …  

a) Stable  i) This   would   defy   the   behavior   of   our   technology-­‐based   world,   since   all  

technologies   move   at   a   rapid   pace.   Otherwise   they   die.   No   credible  manager  in  the  technology  domain  thinks  technologies  are  stable.  Even  in  heavy   construction,   petrochemical,   power   (nuke   and   conventional),  technology  evolves  rapidly.    

ii) In   our   software   intensive   systems   world,   based   on   rapidly   evolving  hardware,  technologies  cannot  be  stable.  We  must  plan  accordingly.  

b) Evolving  i) Any  credible  technology  management  Plan  must  have  on-­‐ramps  and  off-­‐

ramps  for  changes  in  the  technology.  

ii) Planning  for  change  is  part  of  all  good  plans  iii) But  we  must  be  clear  -­‐  Plans  are  strategies,  they  are  hypotheses.    

(1) And  hypotheses  need  to  be  tested.    (2) Produce  outcomes  that  can  be  tested  against  the  need  is  what  projects  

do.  2) Technologies  are    

a) Predictable  …  i) Even   pouring   concrete   for   the   highway   is   not   predictable.   There   are  

changes   to   processes,   technologies,   skills,   equipment,   and   other  externalities    

ii) Anyone  in  SW  or  IT  that  believes  that  technologies  are  predictable  is  not  working  on  anything  important.  

b) Unpredictable  i) Unpredictable  means  those  planning  the  project  have  little  understanding  

of   the  underlying   technologies  and  where   they  are  going.  This  might  be  the  case.  In  this  case  they  are  ill  prepared  to  manage  a  technology  project.  

ii) This   would   be   like   hiring   a   commercial   builder   that   had   little  understanding   of   modern   energy   efficient   homes,   solar   power   and  heating,   thermal  windows,   and  high  efficiency  HVAC  systems  and  asked  him  to  build  a  LEADS  Compliant  office  building.    

iii) Why  would   you  do   that?  Why  would   you  hire   software  developers   that  had   little   understanding   of  where   technology   is   going?  Don’t   they   read,  attend  conferences,  and  look  at  the  literature  to  see  what’s  coming  up?    

3) Requirements  are…    a) Stable    

i) Only  trivial  projects  have  stable  requirements.  Trivial  projects  don’t  need  estimates,  or  much  of  anything  in  the  form  of  management,  planning,  or  strategy.  

b) Evolving  i) Requirements   must   evolve.   To   not   evolve,   means   the   project   is   a  

production  line  project.  And  even  then  change  orders,  modification  order  and  updated  are  normal  on  the  Toyota  production  lime  

ii) The  Capabilities  should  have  some  stability;  otherwise  you’re  on  a  death-­‐march  project.  

iii) Requirements  follow  the  same  process  as  estimates  (1) The  cone  of  uncertainty  (2) But  you  have   to   start   some  where,   so   start  with   the  capabilities  and  

the  requirements  that  are  know  in  enough  detail  to  start  working  (3) A  major  manned  space  flight  system  I  worked,  when  NASA  was  in  the  

business  of  manned  spaceflight  had  three  capabilities  for  the  system  (a) Fly  four  crew  to  the  Space  Station  (b) Rendezvous  and  dock  and  stay  attached  for  6  months  (c) Return   to   the   Pacific   with   four   crew   and   board   and   keep   them  

alive  (d) The  prototype  of  that  space  craft  just  landed  in  the  Pacific  –  Orion    

4) Requirements  are  a…    

a) Constraint  …  i) This  depends  on  the  point  of  view  

(1) If   there   is   a   requirement   for   a   100GB   link   between   two   sites   to  support   the   traffic   for   video   conferencing,   it’s   a   constraint.   Can’t   do  100GB?  Then   the  product  will  not  meet   the  customer  need.  You  will  have  failed  in  your  quest  to  provide  value.  

b) A  Degree  of  Freedom  i) If   there   is   a   requirement   to   process   transactions   for   medical   claims   at  

20%   less   than   today,   then   there   are   lots   of   ways   to   do   that,   including  making  changes  to  other  requirements  

ii) Requirements  trades  are  part  of  all  engineering  design  processes.  So  the  deterministic  statement  is  a  Red  Herring    -­‐  all  requirements  MUST  evolve  is  success  has  a  chance  is  being  the  outcome  of  the  project  

5) Useful  Information  is  …  a) Available  at  the  start  

i) If  you’re  starting  a  project  without  knowing  something  about  where  you  are   going,   you’re   wasting   your   stakeholder’s   money   and   laying   the  ground  work  for  a  death-­‐march  while  searching  for  what  done  looks.  

ii) Spending   other   peoples   money   is   not   the   same   as   wandering   around  looking  for  a  solution.  You  should  –  I’d  say  must  –  know  something  about  what  capabilities  the  work  is  seeking  to  produce.    

iii) Even   research   and   development   projects   have   a   goal   in   the   software  business.  Even  in  the  bio-­‐Chem  business,  they  have  budgets  and  goals  to  find  something  that  makes  money  for  the  firm  

b) Arriving  Continuously  i) Arriving  continuous  is  not  mutually  exclusive  with  being  available  at  the  

start.  ii) This  notion  is  a  Strawman,  Red  Herring,  and  simple  Misinformation.  

6) Decisions  are…  a) Front-­‐Loaded  

i) Someone   has   to   decide   to   start,   set   the   direction,   establish   the   initial  needed  capabilities.  

ii) Without  this   leadership  direction,  the  project   is  going  to  wander  around  looking  for  something  of  value.  

iii) Big   Red   Herring   and   misinformation   about   how   business   manages   it’s  money  

b) Continuous    i) Yes  closed  loop  control  has  a  continuous  information  gathering  process.  ii) But   close   loop   control   has   a   set   point   a   steering  goal   –  where   are  we  

going,   when   do   we   expect   to   get   there,   what   impediments   will   we  encounter  along  the  way,  how  much  money  do  we  need  along  the  way,  will  we  make  our  money  back  when  we’re  done.  

iii) Around   Red   Herring,   misinformation   about   how   business   makes  decisions  

iv) Add  these  decisions  are  microeconomic  decisions,  based  on  opportunity    costs  about  probabilistic  outcomes  in  the  future.  

v) This   requires   –   mandates   –   that   estimates   of   both   cost   and   value   be  made  to  inform  the  decision  making  process.  

vi) To   do   otherwise   is   like   deciding   to   climb   a  mountain   –   a   Fourteener  here   in   Colorado   –  without   estimating   the   duration,   the  weather,   our  skills  and  abilities  –  let’s  see  what  the  top  of  Long  Peak  looks  like?  Those  doing  that  die  at  a  rate  of  3  to  5  a  year.    

vii) Dying   on   Longs   Peak   will   happen   on   your   project   without   up   front  information  and  continuous  updating  of  that  baseline  information  with  new  information.  

viii) This  is  called  Close  Loop  Control  7) Task  Durations  are…  

a) Predictable  i) Only  if  you  know  nothing  about  the  Aleatory  (irreducible)  uncertainty  of  

project  work.  ii) Red  Herring,  Strawman,  and  Misinformed  iii) All  project  work  is  probabilistic  –  behave  accordingly  

b) Unpredictable  i) All  project  work  is  probabilistic  –  behave  accordingly  ii) Look  for  past  performance,  reference  classes,  parametric  adjusts.  iii) Never  done  this  before  

(1) Go  find  someone  who  has.  (2) This  is  like  building  a  LEADS  compliant  building  without  having  ever  

built  such  a  thing.  (3) No  rational  client  would  hire  you,  and  if  they  did,  they  get  what  they  

deserve  –  late,  over  budget,  and  likely  doesn't  work  8) Task  Arrival  Time  are…  

a) Predictable  i) The  arrival  of  work  is  wholly  dependent  is  the  completion  of  prior  work  

in  a  resource  constrained  environment.  (1) If  you  work  in  an  unconstrained  resource  world,  you  have  a  rare  and  

privileged  job,  hang  on  to  it  (2) Normal  projects  are  constrained  by  money,  time,  and  resources.  

ii) These  completion  times  are  random  variables  based  on  the  productivity  of  the  labor  force,  defects,  corrective  actions,  rework,  externalities,  and  a  plethora  of  other  drivers  of  variability.  

iii) The  result  is  not  project  variable,  arrival,  completion,  or  other  measures  can  be  predictable  in  the  absence  of  a  Most  Likely  value  and  the  Variances  in  these  Most  Likely  values.  

b) Unpredictable  i) All  project  work  is  based  on  uncertainty.  ii) Aleatory  uncertainty,  which  is  irreducible,  requires  margin  and  reserve  to  

protect  the  deliverables  from  the  naturally  occurring  variances.  iii) Epistemic   uncertainty,   which   is   reducible,   requires   specific   work   to   be  

performed  to  reduce  the  uncertainty.  Cost  and  Time  are  expended  to  do  this.  

   

9) Our  Work  Path  is  …  a) Linear  and  Unidirectional  

i) Only  when   there   no   dependencies   between  work   elements   is   the  work  linear.  (1) This   may   the   case,   when   the   project   work   has   no   external  

dependencies   or   the   work   is   such   that   any   order   of   the   work   is  possible  and  produces  usable  out  comes.  

(2) Usually  these  types  of  projects  are  low  complexity.  ii) The  unidirectional  versus  recursive  is  a  semantic  issue.      

(1) Recursive  in  mathematics  means  relating  to  or  involving  the  repeated  application  of  a  rule,  definition,  or  procedure  to  successive  results.    

(2) In  computing  is  means  relating  to  or  involving  a  program  or  routine  of  which  a  part  requires  the  application  of  the  whole,  so  that  its  explicit  interpretation  requires  in  general  many  successive  executions.  

iii) In  projects,  recursive  work   is   the   former  –   the  repeated  application  of  a  procedure   –   developing   outcomes.   This   repeated   application   hopefully  increases  the  maturity  of  the  outcomes  from  that  work.  

iv) In  the  absence  of  no  dependencies,  networked  dependencies  are  to  result.  Only  in  trivial  projects  are  there  no  dependencies  (1) Installing   Oracle   requires   a   machine,   a   virtual   machine,   licensing,  

storage,   and   memory   –   virtual   or   real.   With   out   these   in   place   the  installation   cannot   start.   That’s   a   trivial   example,   all   other   examples  have  more  dependencies.  

(2) One   notion   of   some   agile   paradigms   in   INVEST,   where   the   I   is  Independent.  Without  confirming   the  work   in   the  backlog   is  actually  Independent  of  all  other  work,  the  notion  of  linear  and  unidirectional  cannot  be  correct.    

(3) Deploying   the   enrollment   screen   for   a   health   insurance   system  require   a   database   for   validation   of   qualifications,   a   database   to  screen   applicants   against   prior-­‐conditions,   financial   background  check  and  a  variety  of  other  externalities.  

b) Networked,  Recursive  i) In  the  presence  of  dependencies,  networked  work  is  common.  So  finding  

projects  where  there  are  no  dependencies  means  finding  projects  where  the  order  of  work  is  irrelevant.  

ii) If   the   work   can   be   performed   in   any   order,   even   priority   order,   then  networking  is  not  very  meaningful.  So  if  INVEST  is  in  place,  networks  not  needed.  

iii) If  networked  describe  the  work  order,  the  linear  processes  are  used.      

10) Variability  is…  a) Always  harmful  

i) The  notion  of  harmful  and  always  are  Red  Herrings.  No  units  of  measure.  ii) Variability   is   always   present,   both   Aleatory   and   Epistemic,   and  while   if  

left  unaddressed  it  can  be  harmful,  any  mature  organization  understands  this  and  has  approaches  to  deal  with  this  variability  

iii) No  credible  project  management  process  fails  to  understand  this.  b) Required  

i) Variability  is  always  present.  ii) All   projects   are   network   of     non-­‐stationary   stochastic   processes,  

interacting  with  each  other  in  non-­‐linear  ways.    iii) So   yes,   variability   is   required.   Not   knowing   this   means   you   haven’t  

worked  any  serious  project.  11) The  Math  Needed  is  …  

a) Arithmetic  i) This  is  one  of  the  silly  Red  Herrings.  ii) Once  it  is  recognized  that  all  project  work  is  based  on  random  variables,  

the  arithmetic  is  a  start,  but  not  the  end.  b) Probability  and  Statistics  

i) Yes,  probability  and  statistics.  ii) Statistical  process  create  uncertainty  iii) Probability   of   completing   on   or   before,   at   or   below   is   driven   by   the  

statistical  processes.