Upload
ilri
View
3.108
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Jimmy Smith at the 15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand, 26-30 November 2012
Citation preview
The global livestock agenda Opportunities and challenges
Jimmy Smith
15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand
26-30 November 2012
The global livestock sector • Magnitude • Diversity • Dynamic • Important for global development challenges
Trends in the global livestock sector • Consumption • Food production • Trade
Livestock and the environment Livestock and livelihoods Livestock and health/nutrition
Overview
The global livestock sector
The global livestock sector
17 billion domestic animals
Asset value $1.4 trillion
Employs 1.3 billion people
Uses one third of the earth’s ice free surface
4
Four out of the five highest value global commodities are livestock
Livestock contribution to AgGDP
6
4.0%
5.6%
4.3% 2.9%
3.8%
2.8%
2.4%
2.8%
2.4%
Livestock
GDP
(Figures in bars are annual growth rates)
FAO, 2012
Diversity in the livestock sector
From…..
Few animals
Multiple functions
Sales – at times of need
Risk mitigation 7
To…..
00,000s of animals
Rapid, regular turn over
Only for income
Growth scenarios for livestock systems
‘Strong growth’ – Where good market access and
increasing productivity provide opportunities for continued smallholder participation.
‘Fragile growth’ – Where remoteness, marginal land
resources or agro-climatic vulnerability restrict intensification.
‘High growth with externalities’ – Fast changing livestock systems
potentially damaging the environment and human health
Different research and development challenges for poverty, food security, health and nutrition, environment
Livestock and global development challenges
Feeding the World – Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the
global kilocalories.
Removing poverty – Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods
Managing the environment – Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions;
use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free land
– Transition of livestock systems – huge opportunity to impact on future environment
Improving human health – Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods
– Malnutrition and obesity
9
Animal source foods and global diets
10
FAO, 2012
Livestock growth and GDP
11
Consumption and production
% growth in demand for livestock products 2000 - 2030
13
FAO, 2012
Consumption - drivers Population: Rising to 9-10 billion
Urbanization
– Since 2008 more people in urban than rural areas
– Two thirds urban anticipated by 2050
Incomes
Supermarkets
Trade
14
Supermarkets or informal sector?
‘Supermarket revolution’ took off in 1990s
Increases in market share vary around the world
General features • Impacts the rich first
• Vertical integration of food markets
• Threat to smallholder participation
Effects not same for all products • First in processed foods
(flour, oil, condiments)
• Last in fresh foods (meat, dairy, fruits and veg)
Informal milk market 80% in India
ILRI/Mann
FAO: SOFA 2009
Growing trade in livestock commodities–with impacts also at local level
Food production: From where?
Herrero et al. 2009
Food production: By whom?
Today: 50 – 75% of livestock production in Africa and Asia from small farms (less than 2ha; 2 TLU)
Future: Small or large farms?
Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)
Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor
Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour
Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?
Smallholder sector fragmented: What actors are needed to support it?
Trajectory of change?
Livestock and the environment
19
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050
Climate change What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity?
Courtesy of Andy Jarvis
Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kg of animal protein produced
Large inefficiencies in the developing world– an opportunity?
Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
Production efficiency – developed countries
22
Capper et al., 2009
Feed, breed,
health =
4 fold milk
increase
Estimated GHG emissions per kg of FPCM at farm gate, averaged by main
regions and the world
23
FAO, 2010
Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods
Use of biomass– for soil or feed (or fuel)
Reduction of animal numbers– implications for livelihoods
Producing with smaller environmental footprint
Livestock and livelihoods
Livestock production and marketing are essential for the livelihoods of almost 1 billion
Two-thirds are women
1.3 billion people employed in livestock value chains globally
25
Role of animals
Multiple Comparing cattle systems in Kenya, Zambia and Sri Lanka:
– Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping came from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing
– Insurance: – Financing:
Livestock - an inflation-proof savings/investment Manure, traction, social
26
ILRI/Mann
Livestock and human health
27
#
#
#
## #
##
##
##
#
###
#
##
##
#
#
#
###
#
##
####
##
## ##
##
#
#
##
#
#####
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
###
##
#
###
## ##
#
##
##
# ###
##
##
##
###
###
#
#
#
#
####
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
###
#
##
#
####
###
##
#
### #
#
#
#
###
#
#
######
#
###########
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
#
#
####
##
#
#
#
#
##
##
##
#
#
##
#
#
###
##
#####
#
##
#
##
#
#
##
#
#
##
###
#
#
#
##
#
#
###
#
###
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
##
#
##
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
##
#
#
##
#
##
##
#
#
######
#
####
##
##
##########
#####
########
##########
#
#
################
#
##
#
####
#
#
#
#################
#
##
#######
#
########
####
##
#########################
###########
#####
##########
#
##
###########
###
#
#
##
##
##
#
##
#
###
##
#############
#
#######
####
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
## #####
#
###########
##
#######
#
####
#
###############
##
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#####
#
#
##
######################################
#
###################################################
#
#
######################
#
#
#
#
#
######
#
##
##
###
#
#####
#
####
#
###
#
##
#
# #
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
####
###
#####
###
##
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
###
##
#######
#
##
###
###
#####
#
##
###
########
#
##
#
#############
#
#
#
###########
#
###
#
###################
#
#
#
#
#
#########
#
#
#
##
#######
####
## #
#
# #
#
#
#
#
#####
#
### ##########
#
# #
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#####
###
#
#
####
#
##############
#
##
#
###
#
####
#
########
##
##
#
####
##
# #
#
#
#
######## #
#
#####
#
######
#
### #
##
############### #
#
###
#
#
#
# #
#
#########
#
#####
#
## #
#
##############
#
#######
#
#
#
#############
##
####
#
#
##
#
#
#######
#
##
########
#
####
#
#### #######
##
#
#
#
#
#######
#
###
#####
#
#
###
######
##
####
#
##
##
##
#
##########
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
####
#
#
##
########
##
#
#
#
######
#
#########
#
################
##
#
#
####
######
####
#
##
###
##
###############
#
####
#
###
##
##
#
#
#
####
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
####
#
##
#
####
##
##
##
######
#
####
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
#
###
#
#
#
###
#
#####
### #
##
####
##
#
##
##
##
##
#########
####
#
#
#
##
##
####
#
##
## ## #
##
##
####
##
##
###
##
#
#
####
####
#
#
#
##
##
###
#
#
#
###
##
##
##
#####
#####
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
##
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#######
#
#
##
###
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
####
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
# #
#
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
###
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
######
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
##
#
#
#
##
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
# #
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
####
#
####
###
##
#
#
##
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
###
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
##
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
##
##
##
#
#
#
##
##
##
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
##
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
##
#
# #
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
###
#####
#
#
###
#
#
##
#
#
##
##
#
#
#
##
#
##
#
##
#
#
#
#
###
#
###
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
## #
#
###
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
##
#
#
##
#
#
###
#
###
###
###
#
##
#
##
#
#
###
#
#
##
#
##
#
##
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
2000 0 2000 4000 Kilometers
Diseases
# Anthrax
# Avian Influenza
# Botulism
# Bovine TB
# Brucellosis
# C. difficile
# Cryptosporidium
# Diarrhea
# Dysentery
# Foodborne Illness
# Gastroenteritis
# Leptospirosis
# Salmonella
# Trichinosis
# Waterborne Illness
N
Population Dens ity (person per sq km)
0 - 5
5 - 10
10 - 25
25 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 250
250 - 500
500 - 1000
1000 - 2500
2500 - 5000
5000 - 10000
100000 - 250000
25000 - 50000
50000 - 100000
Livestock and human disease
• Animal-source foods are the
biggest contributor to food-
borne diseases.
• Diseases transmitted from
livestock and livestock
products
kill more people each year
than HIV or malaria.
• One new human disease
emerges every 2 months and
20% of these come from
livestock.
To eat or not to eat . . . meat, milk and fish
1 billion undernourished
2 billion overweight
Research challenges and opportunities
Informing the global research agenda Biophysical research
• Addressing productivity (feed-breed-health) • Enhancing efficient animal production – environmental issues • Addressing and informing livestock-human nutrition • Disease challenges • Practical environmental solutions
Institutional • Incentives and institutional arrangements for environmental
stewardship – payment for ecosystem services • Market and service provision models • Business enterprise models • Evidence to guide public and private sector roles and investments in
livestock
Livestock systems transition • An opportunity to address future food needs • Diversity of starting points and solutions • Research-for-development to address transition:
– Environmentally, socially, economically equitable and sustainable - INCLUSIVE
–
….research that enhances understanding and targeting options and provides biophysical and institutional solutions must be combined to enhance the transition of today’s smallholder livestock farms through inclusive growth to be a vibrant part of the food, poverty alleviation, environmental and health solutions for the future………….
32
The presentation has a Creative Commons license. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
better lives through livestock ilri.org