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Presentation at the China Travel Sky Airline Conference, Guangzhou, September 2010
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To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
Changing business realities Changing business realities of airline industryof airline industry
Guido GianassoChina Travel Sky 2010 Airline Conference Guangzhou, 1st December 2010
航空领域的现况改变航空领域的现况改变
Markets almost back on trackMarkets almost back on track市场几乎回到正规市场几乎回到正规
Source: IATA
International air freight and passenger volumesseasonally adjusted
160
180
200
220
240
260
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RPK
, bill
ions
9
10
11
12
13
14
FTK
, bill
ions
FTK
RPK
Air cargo gains share from trade reboundAir cargo gains share from trade rebound空运从贸易复苏中获益空运从贸易复苏中获益
World trade in goods and air FTKsSource: Netherlands CPB and IATA
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Billio
n FT
Ks
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
inde
x of
wor
ld tr
ade,
200
0=10
0
International FTKs(left scale)
World goods trade volumes(right scale)
Source: IATA, Netherlands CPB
Business travel revives premium businessBusiness travel revives premium business商务出行推动两舱收益商务出行推动两舱收益 Busines confidence and premium travel growth
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Con
fiden
ce in
dex
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
% c
hang
e ov
er y
ear
Premium travel(right scale)
Business confidence(left scale)
Source: IATA, Haver
Geography matters Geography matters 地理因素地理因素
Source: IATA
Growth in passenger numbers by market
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Cha
nge
over
yea
r
Middle-East - Asia
Within Asia
North & Mid Pacific
Within- Europe
North Atlantic
Growth of Chinese Aviation IndustryGrowth of Chinese Aviation Industry中国航空业的发展中国航空业的发展
Source: IATA
1400480AircraftsAircrafts
5.7 M1.6 MDomestic seats Domestic seats per weekper week
2010201020002000
But there is much more potentialBut there is much more potential更大的发展潜力更大的发展潜力
Source: IATA
3.00.3Seats per Seats per personperson
300 M1.300 MPopulationPopulation
USUSCHINACHINA
Some regions back in profit, some notSome regions back in profit, some not部分地区已开始盈利部分地区已开始盈利
Source: ICAO, IATA
Airline net profits by region
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Europe Asia-Pacific N America L America Middle east Africa
US$
billi
on
2009 2010 2011
Industry profits see good cyclical upturnIndustry profits see good cyclical upturn行业利润呈循环上升趋势行业利润呈循环上升趋势
Global commercial airline profitability
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
2011
F
% re
venu
es
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
US$
bill
ion
Net losses(right scale)
EBIT margin (left scale)
Source: ICAO, IATA
Challenges Challenges 挑战挑战
Fuel price is raising from 24 % to 26 % of operating costs
Unused capacity Wide body utilization 7.8% down1400 aircrafts to be received in 2010
Cost of labor / Trade Unions issues
Fares turning up but so are fuel pricesFares turning up but so are fuel prices票价和油价上涨票价和油价上涨
Source: IATA and Platts
Average international fares and jet kerosene prices
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
US
$ pe
r one
-way
fare
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
US
cen
ts p
er g
allo
n
Jet kerosene price(right scale)
Average one-way international fare(left scale)
Capacity starting to outpace demandCapacity starting to outpace demand承载量承载量//运力开始超过需求运力开始超过需求
International air travel and capacityseasonally adjusted
185
195
205
215
225
235
245
255
265
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
RP
K bi
llion
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
AS
K b
illio
n
ASKs(right scale)
RPKs(left scale)
Source: IATA
To sum upTo sum up…… 总结以上内容总结以上内容
Strong cyclical rebound in travel Airlines still financially fragile Some potential upside to travel demand Potential downside look larger
IATA and CHINA IATA and CHINA –– areas of cooperationareas of cooperation国际航协与中国国际航协与中国-- 合作领域合作领域
Simplifying the business (Bar coded, Boarding passes) => target is 100 % at yearend (China is at 43%)
E-freight (Tianjin is the only airport in the e-freight program)
Air China has five FAST TRAVEL projects Environment – the targets are:1.5% improvement of fuel efficiency annually up to
2020)Carbon neutral growth from 2020Cutting emissions in half by 2050, compared to 2005
IATA in CIATA in CHINAHINA -- a Human Resources perspectivea Human Resources perspective从人力资源的角度看国际航协在中国从人力资源的角度看国际航协在中国
Office established in 1994 (3 employees)Now Regional Office with 90 employees from 5
countriesChinese employees are the second national group
in IATA IATA training activities in China grow In 2007 IATA launches the IATA INTERCULTURAL
LEADERSHIP ENGAGEMENT and DEVELOPMENT(I.LEAD) Program in Beijing
Building the winning coalition: I.LEADBuilding the winning coalition: I.LEAD打造胜利的团队打造胜利的团队
To represent, lead and serve the airline industry