Smart Grid產業分析

• 1. 2009/12/30(3 )(6~9 )1. 5%~15% 50% 10% 2. 3,000 4~5 600~700 (6233 )(1514 1513)(3047 4906 3027 )3.(3577 2395 ) Cisco Silver Spring NetworksPG&E Silver Spring PG&E IPO 1 2020 2,500 231002.3(30)4001.3577TT 2009 EPS 0.84 2009 EPS 2.1 2.3047TT 2009 EPS 0.4MCU30~40 2009 EPS 1.4 3.1514TT 2009 EPS 0.2() 2009 EPS 0.5 5ZigBeeGPRS/3GWiMAX/WiFiGPRS/3GWiFiWiMAX TEL02- 8770- 6078 Emaildcwang@yuanta.com 1 15

2. 2007 62.8 21% 60.1 20% IPPC() 2009 CO2 387ppm 21 CO2 700~1000PPM 1~4 C 43 230 62 62 12/7~12/18 2005 2020 17%2030 42% 2020 GDP 40%~45% 2020 20%~25% 1990 2020 20%~25% 2,500 2020 2,500 1: 10 ( )() 62.8 6.4 60.1 5.916.7 5.6 14.0 5.2 12.6 4.9 2 15 3. 5%~15% 50% 10%()() 2: MIC2009 3: ()() () (AM2 ) ()(SCADA) SmartGrid 2009 3 15 4. 110 AMI(Automatic Meter Infrastructure) Smart Grid() 2012 4,000 Smart Grid IBMSiemensGoogleGEIntel 180 1997 EchoNet Enel 2001 Telegestore 3,000 21 EDF 2012~2017 3,500 2010 3~9 AMI 100 2.3 ( 30 ) 1,200 30 3,000 400 3,000 4~5 600~700 4 ( 97~98 ) ( 600 ) 300 300 97/5/21 97 () 30% ( 99~100 ) () 23000 ( 58%) 100 ( 100 ) 4 15 5. Silver Spring Networks 4 GoogleGEIntelCiscoIBMMicrosoft Cisco Silver SpringNetworks PG&E Silver Spring PG&E IPO 5 IEEE P2030 NISTEPRI GoogleGE IEEE802.15.4g 2009 Silver Spring Networks IETFMesh Routing Cisco Systems NISTEPRI 2009 MIC2009 7 5 15 6. MCU IC IC 30~40 PLC RFZigBee 30~40 GPRS/GSM/WiFi () 6 Comm MDMSGPRS/ServersGSM MeetingCCU Data Management System Meter I/FPLC/ RF Smart Grid AMI 40% AMI MIC AMI 40% 60% AMI 6 15 7. 7AMI AMI MIC 7 15 8. Wi-Fi ZigBee 30 GPRS/3G WiMAX/WiFi GPRS/3G WiFi WiMAX PLC PLC(Power Line Communication)ADSL Cable PLC PLC PLC PLC 10~450KHz PLC 2~30MHz PLC HPA UPA HPA HomePlug AMI IntellonUPA OPERA PLC DS2 8PLC Date Rate (PHY) Hom ePlug 1.0 IntellonIntelIntellon Hom ePlug AV14/85/200 HPA SHARPMoto rolaEnikia Hom ePlug BPL Mb ps 75 arkados Hom ePlug CC HD-PL C Hd-p lc 210M bp s DS2EDVE0 - OPERA Phase 1 O PERACPL DS2200M bp s Phase 2 PPC FujitsuHitachi PL C-J Pan ason icHD-PLC190M bp s 60 Corin exDS2 UPADS2UPA DHS 1.0 200M bp s Tosh iba26 Am bient DS 2 UPLC DS2S PiDCOM DS2 200/224 Mbps IBM 54 D-Lin kS martLabs Insteo nSm artLabs Inste on2,880bp s 70Cyp ress EchelonEchelon LonW orks Tosh iba LonT alk78kbpsMotorola Cypre ssToshiba MIC 8 15 9. PLC PLC 1) BPL-DS22) -Intellon3)-InsteonEchelonEchelon ENEL PLC PLC 2~30MHz PLC PLC PLC Wi-Fi HPA HomePlug AV 1.0 UPA DHS 1.0 PLC 1)2) ZigBee Z-waveIEEE 802.15.43) 92004~2009 HomePlug Million units Growth 25250% 20200% 15150% 10100%550%00%20042005 2006 2007 20082009Shipment Vol. 1 36 11 15 20Growth Rate 200% 100% 85%36%33% MIC ZigBee ZigBee ZigBee IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee 802.15.4 Mesh ZigBee 2.4GHz()902~928MHz( ) 868MHz( ) 2.4GHz 250Kbps 915MHz 40Kbps868MHz 20Kbps 10~75 9 15 10. 10ZigBee Zigbee(FFD)Zigbee(FFD) Zigbee(RFDFFD)Mesh Moto 11ZigBee RF IC 8 RF 8RXRX /RF SPI/ ZigBee TX TX 15:4 /RF MAC Moto ZigBee ZigBee ( 40A)( 1mA) /( 35mA)ZigBee 6 2 Wi-Fi 1 ZigBee ZigBee 128Bit AES ZigBee 16bit ZigBee 6.5 Mesh Wi-Fi 4~10 2~3 ZigBee 3~4 12 IEEE ASP 11n300Mbps11b/g Wi-Fi 802.11 2.4/5GHz 100 100Mbps1~3 4~10 10~100 BT 2.03MbpsBTUSB 802.15.1 2.4GHz 3.024Mbps 12~3 2.4GHz/915MHz/86128 Bit ZigBee 802.15.48MHz 10~75 20~250Kbps AES6~2 3~4 10 15 11. (3047 TT) ODM OBM 09 ODM 60%OBM 30%~40% 30% 2010 2010 Getnet TP-Link Wi-Fi IP-CAMWi-Fi LCD TV 10 5~6 16% 1)2) 50% 11 1,800 14% 6.9 EPS 0.32 2010 1) 2)3) 30% 31.8 251% 1.5 EPS 1.43 (3027 TT) PLC 60%~70% 30%~35% DVD Player STB XDSL CPE PLC3G Router 2010 1 1 Intellon PLC Wireless PLC 2010 2009 23% 7 20% EPS 0.34 2009 23% 14.8 1 1 EPS 1 2010 20% 34%2010 PLC 20% 17.7 0.7 19% 34% 1.3 EPS 1.35 11 15 12. (4906 TT) 4.7% 1 2010 20 20 0.5 9.6 0.3% 4.7% 2010 WiMAXIP-STB 16%2010 1)11n 11g 11n 11g2) Gateway AP/Router 3)WiMAX WiMAX 4) TV IP-STB 5)6)Femtocell AT&T7)Smart Grid SPX 520 20 09 10 47% EPS 3.5 09 18% 44%EPS 2.4 2010 2% 16% 205 38% 47% 0.5 13.3% 2010 47% 9.6 EPS 3.5 (1514 TT) 30% SCADA 2011 15 SCADA 20~30 2011 SCADA 20% 1) 2) CCU 3) 2009 2010 4% 32.3 0.4 EPS 0.2 2010 17% SCADA 138% 1 EPS 0.47 12 15 13. (6233 TT) (Smart I/O) USB IEEE1394 IC (SOC) (MPEG-4/JPEG/MP3)(GPS) IP Camera 2009 50% 30% 20% 11% MCU( / ) ADC( ) DSP( ) 2009 2010 7% 5.1 0.1 EPS -0.12 2010 5% 0.1 EPS 0.14 (3577 TT) PAC ( 17%)PAC ( 35%) I/O ( 43%)PAC IPC PLC PAC IPC PLC CP() 2395 1) 2)3) I/O 2009 24% 57% EPS 0.84 10% 51% 26%EPS 0.44 2009 24% 57%EPS 0.84 2010 30% 08 150% EPS 2.1 2010 PAC 50% 35% 40% PAC PAC 1.5 150%EPS 2.1 13 15 14. (6227 TT) TI Zigbee IC Altera (FPGA) Altera 50%~60% Micrel IC 30% USB 10% (CPLD) FPGA TI Zigbee TI ZigBee TI Zigbee module Zigbee USB dongle 2 Zigbee CATCAN 2009 13% EPS 1 EPS 0.33 2009 13% 21.7 0.8 9% 0.8 EPS 1 2010 08 49% EPS 1.5 2010 08 1)2) ZigBee 49% 1.1 EPS 1.5 (2395 TT) 2009 19% 12% 20% 18% 15% 16% 2008 SI -16% 2008 25% SI 2010 EPS 3.99 2010 EPS 3.99 14 15 15. 13 2009 EPS() () 2009 YoYYoY EPS 2009 2010 20092010 6233 -4.2% -14% -0.08 -0.120.14 -395.0 338.6 14.93.2