View
217
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
EVOLUCIÓN Y REVOLUCIÓN EN LA PRODUCCIÓN Y CONSUMO DE GAS
NATURALISIDRO MORALES
EGAP, TECNOLÓGICO DE MONTERREY.
Octubre17, 2012SEGUNDO CONGRESO NACIONAL EN CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
UNAM
México. Evolución de la oferta bruta de energía primaria. Petajoules.1993-2011.
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Carbón Petróleo crudo Conden-sados
Gas natural Total de energía primaria
1%
gas: 3%
crudo-0.27%
carbón4%
-condensados -4.19
Fuente: SENER: SIE
México. Demanda de gas natural por sectores. 2010. porcentajes.
Consumo de gas por sector industrial. 1994-2010.Porcentajes.
Consumo de combustibles por tipo.
porcentajes
El consumo se ha disparado en los últimos años
19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Power public sector Power private sectorIndustry Petroleum IndustryResidential Transport
1999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Natural Gas Fuel Oil Coal
Diesel Coque de petróleo Liquified Petroleum Gas
Gasoline Biomass
Source: SENER-SIE
Comercio por ducto entre México y Estados Unidos
Comercio transfronterizo de gas natural
Las importaciones se han incrementado durante los últimos años.
La revolución del gas de lutita en América del Norte
Source: EIA, 2011
Los mercados de gas natural se independizan del petróleo crudo en el mercado de Estados Unidos, abriendo amplias prospectivas para este recurso en los próximos
años.
Source: EIA, 2011
Mexico is part of the major reservoirs of shale gas in the world, according to a study of the EIA.
Total conventional gas reserves amount to 61.2 TCF. Current recoverable shale gas reserves amount to 681 TCF.
El potencial del gas de lutita podría también revolucionar la balanza energética del país.
Table 1
Estimates of non-identified prospective gas Resources Volume Trillion cubic feet (TCF)
Coal bed methane a/ 2 Shale gas b/ 681
Total 683
Shale Gas Play
US estimations b/
Pemex Ranges (lower, central and upper) (TCF) c/
Upper Cretaceous 507 54 - 106 - 171
Mid-Cretaceous 8 0 Late Jurassic 166 95 - 190 - 285 Total 681 150 - 297 - 459 a/ CNH with data from Netherland-Sewell
b/ US - EIA. World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States.
Washington, D.C. April 2012.
c/ Estrada, 2011.
Mexico. Estimated production of conventional
natural gas. Million daily cubic feet
Mexico. Anticipated production of shale gas.Million daily cubic feet
Mexico podría incrementar su producción tanto de gas convencional como no convencional en los próximos años.
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Inertial scenario Scenario under NES-2012Source: SENER, ENE-2012
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 0 0 0200
44060974485895910481130120612771343
0 0 0 00
00
342
753
10421275
14701642
17951936
Inertial scenario Scenario under NES-2012Source: SENER, ENE-2012
3 LNG plants have been established in Mexico
….in order to process growing imports of LNG, unless shale gas potential is fully developed
Las importaciones de GNL podrían disminuir en el mediano y largo plazo.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Mexico. Anticipated imports of natural gas: 2012-2025. Million daily cubic feet
Imports of LNG Imports by pipelineSource: SENER
S O U R C E : G T E A N , 2 0 0 5
EL TLCAN introdujo reformas de mercado en el sector de transporte, distribución y almacenamiento del gas.
NAFTA’s Chapter 6 set the possibility of the gradual liberalization of Mexico’s energy sector:
Privatization of the gas transportation grid, and crossborder trade is permitted under certain conditions.
Private enterprises are allowed to produce electricity for self-supply, cogeneration, as an Independent Power Producer (IPP) or for import-export activities. However, sales and distribution remain under the monopoly of state enterprises.
However, in case of an inconsistency, Mexico’s constitutional restrictions prevail. Thus, controversies are to be solved by the Supreme Court of Justice.
A new regulatory approach is needed if the transmission grid is to be enlarged by private entrepreneurs.
Existen problemas de infraestructura para desarrollar un mercado interno de gas
But PEMEX must overcome a myriad of challenges.
Future investments range 22.5 to 27.2 billion annual dollars and drilling operations from 1767 to 2258 annual wells.
Plays Cost per well (Million dollars)
Eagle Ford 4.0 to 6.5
Marcellus 3.0 to 4.7
Barnett South/Western Counties 1.6 ato 3.7
Barnett-Woodford 6.5
Emergente-1 (PEMEX) 11.9
Source: EIA, 2011 and PEMEX
Existen problemas de financiamiento y de eficiencia que superar.
Recommended