Volhoubare Landbou: Hoe bestuur ek die politieke onsekerheid? Sustainable Agriculture ... · 2017....

Volhoubare Landbou: Hoe bestuur ek die

politieke onsekerheid?

Sustainable Agriculture: How do I manage

the political uncertainty?

Kimberley

June 8 Junie 2017

@theo_venter

Theo VenterPolitical & Policy Specialist

theo.venter@nwu.ac.za

Noordkaap Northern Cape

1.Hoe lyk ons VUCA-wêreld?

2.Hoe moet ek verandering hanteer?

3.Polariteite

4.Politieke verwagtinge

5.Kom ons maak sin

Uitleg

Wie wil verander?

Wie wil verandering hê?

Everybody Knows!

……….

Everybody knows that the war is over

Everybody knows the good guys lost

Everybody knows the fight was fixed

The poor stay poor, the rich get rich

That's how it goes

Everybody knows

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking

Everybody knows that the captain lied

Everybody got this broken feeling

Like their father or their dog just died……

From Leonard Cohen's album I'm Your Man, February 1988

“I don’t know I came here tonight;

I’ve got a feeling something ain’t right;

………..

Clowns to the left;

Jokers to the right

Here I am

Stuck in the middle with you!”

Steelers Wheel ‘60s

Reservoir Dogs

“I don’t know I came here tonight;

I’ve got a feeling something ain’t right;

………..

Clowns to the left;

Jokers to the right

Here I am

Stuck in the middle with you!”

Steelers Wheel ‘60s

Reservoir Dogs

‘n VUCA-wêreld

Die 2017 politieke en ekonomiese agenda

1. Ons is nou formeel in ‘n resessie, maar landbou doen uitstekend. Grootste mielie-oes ooit, maar op minder hektare.

2. Ons het self die resessie en afgradering veroorsaak –eie doele aangeteken.

3. ANC se interne woelinge het ‘n verlammende invloed op besluitneming.

4. Donald Trump en BREXIT maak niks makliker nie. Gelukkig bly Frankryk en Nederland stabiel.

5. Word Duitsland die nuwe Europa?

6. Wat van China en Indië?

7. Die einde van globalisering? Wie se nuus kan ons glo?

Die skep van ‘n eie toekomsDie pad deur paradoks

(Aangepas uit: Handy, 1994, The

Empty Raincoat pp 49-64)

Rigting van selfgerigdetransformasie

Kritiesedeurmekaarspul

Omgewings-verandering

Ruwe ontwaking

Chaos enOnsekerheid

Eerste kurweEwolusionêre ontwikkeling

Tweede kurweSkep van onmoontlike

resultate

Die skoenlapper-effek

Risiko

Op die rant van chaosDie sone van kreatiwiteit en aanpassing

Ontplooiende ordeVreemde aantrekkingskrag

� Onvermoë on te sien� Kontras en polariteite

� Konfrontasie

� Onvermoë om te beweeg� Bestemming

� Bronne

� Erkenning en vergoeding

� Onvermoë om klaar te maak� Ons word moeg

� Ons is verlore

Wat maak ons moeg?

� Ons het almal ons eie padkaarte in ons

koppe (mental maps).

� Ons lees ons eie kaarte op ons eie

manier.

� Soms maak ons dinge te eenvoudig.

� Ons word verblind deur ons eie insig.

Onvermoë om te sien

Kalifornië deur Hernán Cortés (1541)

Goeienuuskaarte

Soos Bostonians na die VSA kyk!

Verwronge kaarte

‘n ou Sjinese kaart

Selfgesentreerde kaarte

Ou Europese kaart om van een klooster nadie ander te beweeg

Strookkaarte

Oogklappe

en

persepsie

Soos die Aussies kyk

Onderstebo-kaarte

� Bestemming

� Jy moet dit kan sien;

� Jy moet die regte toerusting hê; en

� Daar moet ‘n beloning wees aan die einde.

� Bronne

� Jou toolbox moet reg wees vir die trek; en

� Jy moet glo in jou bestemming.

� Beloning

� Niemand gaan op reis sonder die belofte van ‘n

beloning nie.

Die onvermoë om te beweeg

1. Mense word moeg vir organisatoriese

verandering, want dit gaan nie oor die

verandering van die instansie nie, maar oor die

verandering van die mense.

2. Geen verandering is volhoubaar in enige

organisasie as die mense nie hulle denkwyse

verander nie.

Die onvermoë om klaar te maak

3. Die reis is te lank – ons raak verlore.

4. Vergeet waar ons begin het.

5. As jy verdwaal het niemand lus om

aan te gaan nie!

6. Verwarrende kop-kaarte!

Die onvermoë om klaar te maak

Polariteite…….

� Polariteite het interafhanklike alternatiewe.

� Polariteite is geneig om te ossileer sonder

finaliteit

� Daar is geen finale oplossing nie.

� Sonder oplossings beteken dat hulle deurlopend

bestuur moet word.

� Polariteite vereis ‘n “en” ingesteldheid (mindset)

en nie ‘n “dit-of-dat” oplossing nie.

‘n Tipiese polariteit

Positief

(Upside)

Positief

(Upside)

Negatief

(Downside)

Negatief

(Downside)

Ho

uv

as

aa

nd

ie h

uid

ige

we

rkli

kh

eid

Ve

ran

de

rin

gn

a‘n

nu

we

sit

ua

sie

1. Hulle is die veranderingsagente.

2. Hulle sien net die negatief van die huidige

situasie.

3. Hulle sien die positiewe sy of alternatief van die

veranderende situasie.

4. Hulle verskaf die energie om van die een pool

na die ander te beweeg.

Kruisvaarder (Crusading) denkwyse

Die kruisvaarders

Ve

ran

de

rd

ie h

uid

ige

sit

ua

sie

On

twik

ke

ln

uw

eid

ee

se

no

plo

ss

ing

s

Ongelukkigmet die huidigesituasie

Kan net die positief van

die alternatief

sien

• Hulle handhaaf die huidige stelsel.

• Hulle sien die positiewe faktore van die huidige

bedeling.

• Hulle sien net die negatiewe van die alternatief.

• Hulle verleen die energie om te vining te verander

en handhaaf die positiewe van die huidige

bedeling.

Die tradisie-vaste denkwyse

Die Tradisie-beskermers(Tradition-baring)

Be

sk

erm

die

be

sta

an

de

Sta

an

sk

ep

tie

ste

en

oo

ra

lte

rna

tie

we

op

los

sin

gs

Sien net die negatiewe

van die alternatief

Gelukkigmet die huidigesituasie

Bou ‘n brug.

Upside Upside

Downside Downside

De

ve

lop

th

e c

urr

en

t p

os

itio

n

Tra

ns

form

to

a n

ew

po

sit

ion

Politieke Risiko’s

Political Climate as a Constraint on Business

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

| 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 20 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |

Political Climate since 1987 as measured in the Manufacturing Sector

Source: BER; Quantec; MFA DATABASE (Economic upswings shaded)

Decre

ase

Polit

ical C

onstr

ain

t

Incre

ase

2 Feb 1990

FW de Klerk becomes president

Dakar visit

Boipatong and East Rand violence

CODESA in limbo

New constitution1993

1994 Election

NP withdrew from GNU

1999 Election

Mandela retire

2004 Election

2009 Election

2014 Election

2016Local

Election

Mandela � Dec 2013

Nenegate 9/2015

Marikana2012

ANC MangaungZuma re-elected

ANC Polokwane

2007Zuma elected

2008 Global Financial Crisis

Economy booms under Mbeki

Nkandla3/2016

• Hulle is gewoonlik konsortia van politieke belange

• Hulle interne politieke debatte is dikwels teenstrydig

omdat hulle meervoudige politieke profete en

uitkomste aanhang.

• Hulle wil die samelewing gewoonlik herskep om hulle

ideologiese sienings te pas.

• Hulle het ‘n baie sterk sin vir selfregverdiging wat in

die dominante ideologie ingebou is.

Die kenmerke van bevrydingsbewegings (i)

• Hulle het baie sterk demokrasiese (populistiese)

verbintenisse, maar min verdraagsaamheid vir politieke

opposisie.

• Hulle probeer om opposisie te internaliseer – daarom

vind die veranderingsdebat in die koukus van die

meerderheidsparty plaas.

• Die vertaling van baie hoë vlakke van legitimiteit na

bestuurseffktiwiteit (governance) kom net deur politieke

pyn en tyd.

• Die bevrydingskultuur is baie aansteeklik en versprei

maklik na misdaad, oppertunisme en selfregverdiging

(entitlement).

Die kenmerke van bevrydingsbewegings (i)

• Onder bevrydingsregerings is daar unieke

geleenthede vir hernuwing en herskikking.

• Bevrydingsregerings kan baie effektief wees as hulle

voel hulle is in beheer.

• Bevrydingsregerings kan ook self-korrektief optree

wanneer onder druk.

• Onder bevrydingsregerings swaai die pendulum

van verandering altyd te ver, maar oor tyd

beweeg die pendulum weer terug na groter

balans (Gewoonlik een politieke generasie).

Die kenmerke van bevrydingsbewegings (i)

Most problematic factors doing business in South Africa 2016-2017

9. Tax rates

10. Access to financing

11. Inflation

12. Foreign currency regulations

13. Government instability

14. Tax regulations

15. Poor public health

16. Insufficient capacity of

innovate

1. Inefficient government

bureaucracy

2. Restrictive labour practices

3. Inadequately educated

workforce

4. Policy instability

5. Corruption

6. Crime and theft

7. Poor work ethic

8. Inadequate infrastructure

The Zuma heritage?

33

34

In order to sharpen the ANC’s model of socio-economic transformation, a package of decisive policy interventions is required. This package of policy interventions must be capable of achieving the following objectives: 1.1.1.1. Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment Reducing unemployment and youth unemployment 2.2.2.2. Returning land to our people and supporting land reform Returning land to our people and supporting land reform Returning land to our people and supporting land reform Returning land to our people and supporting land reform 3.3.3.3. Increasing black ownership and control in the economy Increasing black ownership and control in the economy Increasing black ownership and control in the economy Increasing black ownership and control in the economy 4.4.4.4. Activating small businesses and coActivating small businesses and coActivating small businesses and coActivating small businesses and co----operatives operatives operatives operatives 5.5.5.5. Raising the level of investment Raising the level of investment Raising the level of investment Raising the level of investment 6.6.6.6. Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class Strengthening social justice and conditions for the poor and working class 7.7.7.7. Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects Improving the employment impact of infrastructure projects 8.8.8.8. Reducing inequality and poverty Reducing inequality and poverty Reducing inequality and poverty Reducing inequality and poverty 9.9.9.9. Dismantling monopoly practices and structures Dismantling monopoly practices and structures Dismantling monopoly practices and structures Dismantling monopoly practices and structures 10.10.10.10. Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy Asserting South Africa’s interests in the global economy 11.11.11.11. Improving integration into the African economy Improving integration into the African economy Improving integration into the African economy Improving integration into the African economy 12.12.12.12. Stimulating inclusive growth. Stimulating inclusive growth. Stimulating inclusive growth. Stimulating inclusive growth.

Land reform

223. Distribution of land and its productive utilization necessarily feature prominently in the programme of economic transformation. A variety of measures can massively change agricultural production and absorb the unemployed in the rural areas: for instance: • expansion of irrigated agricultural land;• promotion of commercial production; • identification of, and requisite assistance to, sectors and regions

with high potential; • and programmes to ensure access to product value chains by big

and small producers alike. These efforts should include creative utilisation of land in so-called ‘communal’ areas. Land redistribution and restitution will be speeded up; and land use management will be approached in a more systematic manner.

Opvolging in die ANC

Tyd om te beweeg?

38

Die twee faksies binne die ANC

• Cyril Ramaphosa• Zweli Mkhize• Gwede Mantashe• Lindiwe Sisulu• Thandi Modise• Matthews Phosa• Paul Mashatile (GP)• Noordkaap• Oos-Kaap• SAKP• COSATU• ANC Veterane “Stalwarts”• Dele KZN en Limpopo

• Jacob Zuma (Uitgaande)• Jesse Duarte• Baleka Mbete• Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma• Ace Magashule (VS)• Supra Mahemapelo (NW)• David Mabuza (MP)• Sihle Sikelele (KZN)• Bathabile Dlamini (ANCWL)• Colin Maine (ANCYL)• Kebby Maphetswe (MKVA)• 50% KZN• 50% Limpopo

Charteriste/Konstitusionaliste Premier Liga/ “Kripvreters”

Twee leierskapslyste

1. President: Dr Dlamini-Zuma

2. Dep President: Ace

Magashule

3. National Chair: Lindiwe Zulu

4. Secretary General: Nathi

Mthethwa

5. Deputy SG: Malusi Gigaba

6. Treasurer General: Fikile

Mbalula/ Supra Mahemapelo

1. President: Cyril Ramaphosa

2. Dep President: Lindiwe Sisulu

3. National Chair: Thandi Modise/

David Mabuza/ Zweli Mkize

4. Secretary General: Senzo

Mchunu (KZN)/ Zweli Mkize

5. Deputy SG: David Makura

6. Treasurer General: Paul

Mashatile

Samestelling van die ANC Kongres

Desember 2017 (4500 Afgevaardigdes)

CR 17

495

400

720

270

1885

Population Population Population Population estimateestimateestimateestimate

% of population% of population% of population% of population % of ANC % of ANC % of ANC % of ANC membershipmembershipmembershipmembership

Eastern Cape 7 061 700 12,6 16%Free State 2 861 600 5,1 7%Gauteng 13 498 200 24,1 11%KwaZulu-Natal 11 079 700 19,8 21%Limpopo 5 803 900 10,4 11%Mpumalanga 4 328 300 7,7 13%Northern Cape 1 191 700 2,1 3%North West 3 790 600 6,8 10%Western Cape 6 293 200 11,3 3%Total 55 908 900 100.00

@theo_venter 2017

Zuma’s 1st term as state president (2009-2014) Zuma’s 2nd term as state president (2014-2019)

ANC as government: State dynamics

Zuma’s 2nd term as ANC president (2012-2017)

ANC as political party: Political dynamics

Dec 2012Mangaung

Elective Conference

May 2014General Election

Oct 2015 ANC National

General Council

2016 Local Government

Elections

2017ANC Policy Conference

Dec 2017 ANC

Elective Conference

May 2019General election

Dec 2012 May 2014 Dec 2017 May 2019Oct 2015 Aug 2016 Jun 2017

New ANC president for five year term

2017-2022

Zone of Uncertainty

Replacing Zuma: A two centres of power scenario?

Kom ons maak sin

Negative trends

Positive trends

Political Developments

Banking and financial system

Independent Judiciary

and media

Stable but robust

political system

Good infrastructure able to execute mega projects

Crime and corruption

Weak economyUnemployment

PovertyRestrictive

labour regime

Government inefficiency and

policy uncertainty

Inefficient education

system@theo_venter ©Theo Venter 201744

InklusiefWeerstandiges

Inklusiewe en aktiewe

bevorderaars

Passiewe Weerstandiges

Selektiewebevorderaars

Laag

Div

ers

iteit

Hoog

Geesdrif vir Suid-AfrikaLaag Hoog

Hoe oorleef ons in ‘n VUCA-wêreld?

1.1.1.1. InnoveerInnoveerInnoveerInnoveer enenenen skep skep skep skep joujoujoujou toekomstoekomstoekomstoekoms;;;;

2.2.2.2. VoerVoerVoerVoer planneplanneplanneplanne uituituituit met met met met spoedspoedspoedspoed enenenen buigsaamheidbuigsaamheidbuigsaamheidbuigsaamheid –––– dogma dogma dogma dogma

enenenen ideologieideologieideologieideologie is is is is joujoujoujou vyandevyandevyandevyande;;;;

3.3.3.3. IdentifiseerIdentifiseerIdentifiseerIdentifiseer joujoujoujou ankersankersankersankers in die in die in die in die lewelewelewelewe;;;;

4.4.4.4. SoekSoekSoekSoek virvirvirvir eenvoudeenvoudeenvoudeenvoud –––– om om om om kompleksiteitkompleksiteitkompleksiteitkompleksiteit tetetete hanteerhanteerhanteerhanteer;;;;

5.5.5.5. SamewerkingSamewerkingSamewerkingSamewerking –––– alleenalleenalleenalleen is is is is jyjyjyjy magteloosmagteloosmagteloosmagteloos;;;;

6.6.6.6. HouHouHouHou aanaanaanaan met leer met leer met leer met leer –––– houhouhouhou by by by by enenenen ontwikkelontwikkelontwikkelontwikkel enenenen

7.7.7.7. OntwikkelOntwikkelOntwikkelOntwikkel ‘n ‘n ‘n ‘n oorlewingsdrangoorlewingsdrangoorlewingsdrangoorlewingsdrang –––– belêbelêbelêbelê in in in in

veerkragtigheidveerkragtigheidveerkragtigheidveerkragtigheid

Theo VenterTheo VenterTheo VenterTheo VenterPolitieke en Beleidspesialis

NWU Besigheidskool, Potchefstroom@theo_venter

Dankie virjulle aandag